Tonight doesn't qualify as a toss-up: The Heat will probably win.
Regardless of the sorry state of the full "Big Three," they still have LeBron. They have the result of Game 5. They have Chris Andersen back (and, in the effective absence of Wade and Bosh, that's a not insubstantial X-factor). They have home-court advantage. They have what I would qualify as a slight mental edge, even as confident as the Pacers might seem to be (or have reason to be).
That said, the only question for me today is: What if Miami loses?
It's kind of incredible: LeBron's superlative season would be a failure. The era of the Big Three would be effectively over. Instead of an epic Heat-Spurs, we get... well, not Heat-Spurs.
Every single bit of pressure is on the Heat. Will they fall short?
If they do, it is way more interesting than if they win.