Thursday, July 15, 2010

Big Day for the Shanoff Boys

Can you remember the first game you went to? I certainly can't. When you become a parent, it becomes this opportunity for you to experience that through your kid.

My older son, now 4, has been to a local (low-level D1) college basketball game and a Knicks game. He has been to a minor-league baseball game. He even went to the Swamp for a game (when he was 2... he lasted all of 5 minutes. Atrocious parenting choice.)

But he has never been to a Major League Baseball game, arguably the quintessential first real sports event for a parent and child.

I could have taken him to the Mets or -- ugh -- Yankees. But a year ago, my dad set up a trip for he, my wife and kids and my siblings (and sibs-in-law) to meet in Chicago this weekend. The big reason is to celebrate the centennial of my late grandfather, my dad's dad -- a Chicago lifer.

As it happens, when the MLB schedule came out last winter, we checked and the Cubs were going to be in town, playing the Phillies. That seemed like the ideal moment to bring the kid to his first game. Tickets were secured.

And so this afternoon, I will be giving my kid his first experience with Major League Baseball in what I can only consider the ideal way: The classic Friday afternoon game at Wrigley.

There is no better first impression about baseball that can be made to a young fan.

What makes it all the more special is that my dad -- who grew up in Chicago a Cubs fan -- will be there, in the same stadium where his own father took him to games a half-century ago.

And I will be there, too. Even living in D.C., I grew up a HUGE Cubs fan. I'm not sure my dad pressed that on me, as much as I chose to embrace the Cubs. Maybe I wanted that as a special relationship with him. I certainly enjoyed being unique -- a Cubs fan in an Orioles town.

In that magical Cubs year of 1984, I was 11 -- precisely the age where I argue that fandom begins to really take shape. One of my first sports-fan memories that I can remember? Watching on TV, as the ball skirted through Leon Durham's glove.

I vividly remember calling my local cable company, begging them to carry WGN so I could watch the Cubs, just like I did when I would visit my grandparents in Chicago.

Ryne Sandberg was my favorite player -- he remains my favorite baseball player of all time.

When I was filling out my facebook -- no, not Facebook -- profile for college, I listed among my hobbies "Chicago Cubs." I had this worn-in Cubs hat I wore EVERYWHERE.

I ostensibly went to Northwestern for the journalism school, but a massive bonus was that I would finally be living in the same town as the Cubs. I could join my brethren.

I definitely took advantage of the experience, attending plenty of those Friday afternoon home games before hitting the cheesy Division Street bars for happy hour specials, then trucking home on the Evanston Express El line.

(Ironically, through my four years of college, my Cubs fandom actually eroded. Too much armchair psychology packed in there to get into it here.)

After college, I got an apartment with two buddies on Addison, a couple long tosses from Wrigley itself. On game days and nights, we would sit on our porch, sometimes sharing beers with passing fans, sometimes getting a stray ticket and wandering over for a few innings. This was (almost entirely) pre-internet, pre-cellphone. Looking back, it was like living in the 1950s.

I'm not sure where I stand with the Cubs right now -- I'm certainly sympathetic, although I wouldn't insult true die-hard Cubs fans by calling myself a "fan." When it looked like the Cubs were going to make the World Series, I was conflicted, because I felt like I didn't deserve to celebrate, having not hung on to my childhood fervor for the team.

I think it's enough that I was a die-hard Cubs fan when I was a kid, at the formation of my sports fandom. They were my first team. Even if, quite atypically, they don't remain your team, there is a very special place for your first team. That said, I can only imagine what 14-year-old me would think of me now. He'd probably say, "Florida? Well, at least you married a hottie.")

Being a Cubs fan is in my DNA, metaphorically (as the first team I chose to die-hard root for) and literally (they are my father's team, and his father's team). That makes it in my kids' DNA, too.

There are a couple traditional roots to fandom: Geography (growing up in the region of the team), Serendipity (getting into a certain college) and Biology (who your parents root for).

The fact is that if your parents root for a certain team and "encourage" their children to root for that team -- and that is either sentimentally awesome or the worst kind of overbearing -- chances are the kid is going to turn out to be a fan of that team.

I think teams and sports leagues don't recognize and promote this nearly enough: They could spend their marketing dollars trying to get adults in town with a casual or passive interest in the sport or team to attend their games... or they could try to lock in to the kids through the parents, creating a spectacular lifetime customer value for themselves.

I went to the Cubs' website to try to find something specifically for parents taking their kids to a game. I found a cheesy "Kids' Club" section -- made for kids, not parents -- but nothing for this particular situation.

I did like the fact that the team had a section on the site about Cubs fandom being a "Way of Life" -- not far off from what I'm talking about -- but little in the way of promoting the parent-kid-Cubs connection. If you know of a team that does a good job of this, let me know. (I'm certain that there are certain minor-league baseball franchises that must excel at this.)

The fact is that the experience of me taking my kid to their first baseball game stands up on its own. The Cubs could do nothing but open the gates to Wrigley and we will be fine.

I couldn't ask for a better introduction for my kid to Major League Baseball. (His little brother, not yet 2, will spend the game exploring Wrigleyville with his aunt and uncle. Bros pacifying bros?) Even if my kid doesn't end up rooting for the Cubs for his lifetime, starting off his baseball fandom with a day game at Wrigley will plant the seed that baseball is a wonderful game worth his energy -- and particularly worth attending in person.

He already knows the lyrics to "Take Me Out to the Ballgame." He already has a Cubs hat. Our seats are in the 500-level, literally the worst seats in the house.

But just being inside Wrigley with him makes this one of my favorite days yet as a parent and a fan.

-- D.S.

(I'll try to tweet and TweetPic and video-tweet as we go. Follow along at @danshanoff.)

07/15 Quickie: 2nd Half Picks

For reasons I'll explain a little later this morning, today's SN column led with a very global view of the sports world.

Coming off the annual Slowest Sports Day of the Year, it was a good moment to take a look at the 2nd half of the sports year with 10 predictions for the rest of 2010.

They include some oldie-but-goodies: Boise State wins the college football national title, Tim Tebow accounting for 10 TDs, one of Miami's Big Three getting injured early in the NBA season.

Otherwise, it's a light day:

*Did Vandy's Bobby Johnson burn out? It's only the toughest job in college football. And he did it astoundingly well, I would say.

*Shaq on the Knicks? Ugh.

*Seth Meyers' opening monologue last night at the ESPYs was terrific. The SNL-style skits? Hit or miss. Janelle Monae? Phenomenal.

*I will continue to contend that the Saints' onside kick in the Super Bowl was the Play of the Year -- it didn't even make the short list fans could vote on.

This seems crazy to me. It wasn't just the Play of the Year, but arguably the greatest play (and play call) in the history of the NFL. It deserves its own ESPY for awesomeness.

(I probably should have led today's column with that, now that I think of it. Glad I have the blog! More on that later.)

See the complete column here. Oh, and today is the 1-year anniversary of TimTeblog.com's launch. And tomorrow I am taking my older son to his first MLB game -- at Wrigley, no less. So there's that!

-- D.S.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Highly Recommended: Joe Sheehan

The slowest sports day of the year -- certainly the slowest day of the baseball season -- is an ideal time to enthusiastically promote Joe Sheehan’s email newsletter.

It’s very simple: Joe Sheehan’s email newsletter about baseball is likely the best $20 I have spent on media this year.

Let me unpack that:


When Sheehan -- a pillar of Baseball Prospectus and one of the smartest baseball writers in the world -- first launched an email newsletter you pay to receive, I loved the idea.


On one level, I applaud his entrepreneurialism -- both to strike out on his own and to value his content enough to charge for it. On another level, I was excited to read him in this format. I think Sheehan is in the Top 3 baseball writers in the country (and the only reason I wouldn’t rank him No. 1 outright is because I can’t bring myself to dislodge Rob Neyer and there is a regular rotation of great baseball writers I would include in my Top 3. But Sheehan is on the Rushmore.)


I didn’t immediately subscribe -- looking back, that was an error. I was talking with Leitch a few weeks ago and Sheehan came up. I mentioned that I had been meaning to subscribe -- Will couldn’t recommend it more highly.


Already entirely ready to support Sheehan’s start-up, I quickly signed up: $20 via PayPal. Half-a-dozen newsletters in, I feel like the subscription has already paid for itself. That I have what will probably end up being 40 editions left between now and the World Series (there could be plenty more, depending on how enthusiastic Joe is) feels like the greatest kind of bargain. In short: I love it.


If you are a huge baseball fan, you will appreciate the baseball insights of an expert. If you are a less intense fan -- like me -- you will
really appreciate him.

Sheehan picks out the most interesting stories, then gives you insights you won’t find elsewhere and that -- and this is really big for me -- will make you smarter as a fan.


Let me say that again: I am a better baseball fan for being a Sheehan newsletter subscriber. I am smarter. That’s all I want from my analysis: Make me a smarter fan, and don’t demand too much of my time or energy to do it.


At this point, I anxiously look forward to Sheehan’s latest emails, and when they arrive, I devour them. I've got one waiting in my in-box right now, featuring his notes from the All-Star Game and his take on George Steinbrenner.


I can’t recommend the newsletter highly enough. Even for half a season, it is entirely worth $20. Even if you are only a casual baseball fan, it is entirely worth $20.

(When I say casual, I mean you should like and follow baseball. It's not for people looking for a shallow, Quickie-esque survey of the big headlines. Though we love those kind of people very much!)

With Joe, though, you will, however, get an incredibly interesting perspective that, when parroted in the office or on the barstool, will impress your co-workers and friends who DO love baseball - and to whom you should especially recommend to get this newsletter, too.)

Beyond its immediate value as phenomenal baseball analysis, I love supporting an independent voice.

Click here to get to Joe's website and subscribe.


(Even better: This month, he is donating a portion of all subscriptions to a charity dedicated to cancer research.)


-- D.S.

07/14 Quickie: Boss, NL All-Stars, More

At his essence, George Steinbrenner was about winning. Sometimes at all costs, sometimes with strange methods, but I believe you can say his heart was in the right place.

If you believe winning is everything.

I would contend that -- in addition to a sense of belonging to a community and maintaining a version of a public trust -- an extreme commitment to winning is an ideal quality in your sports team owner.

Now, Steinbrenner enjoyed some tremendous financial advantages that allowed him to spend-spend-spend on the Yankees.

But consider the larger point: He spent. He reinvested, always. Everything went back into the business, with the goal to make the team a winner.

As you all know, I have spent the last few years fairly obsessed with the notion of "Championship or Failure." Perhaps that's why Steinbrenner's maniacal focus on winning championships resonated with me.

You can question his methods. You cannot question his intentions.

More in today's SN column:

*If you are college-aged or younger, last night was probably the first NL win in an All-Star Game you can ever remember.

*Do Al Jefferson and Tyson Chandler make the Jazz and Mavs contenders in the West? I certainly wouldn't pick them over the Lakers, but I like that they are continuing to try to contend for a title. They will remain on my very short list of teams sincerely attempting that.

*Stanford clocks in at No. 51 on SN's preseason CFB countdown, and I contend that not only will Andrew Luck out-rank Jake Locker among Pac-10 QBs, but Luck will finish the season as 1st-team All-America at QB... and the top-picked QB in the 2011 NFL Draft.

(Between Luck, Locker and -- at least according to scouts -- Ponder, it should be a solid QB class at the top of next year's draft. Makes you wonder if the Rams -- who will undoubtedly have a top choice -- blew it by taking Bradford over Suh, when they could have had an even better prospect a year from now. Yes, I think Luck and Locker are better pro prospects than Bradford, who has yet to prove he can withstand a pounding from BYU linemen, let alone NFC linemen.)

*I am predicting a big night for the Saints at the ESPYs tonight.

*The Old Spice viral video campaign yesterday was absolutely brilliant.

Complete SN column here. More later.

-- D.S.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

07/13 Quickie: Boss, ASG, Wall, More

News just broke that George Steinbrenner is dead. There will be a TON written and said about him today, tomorrow and into the future, but I will leave it with this:

"The Boss" was the most larger-than-life owner in the history of U.S. sports: A bombastic, obsessive manager who ranks at the top of the most competitive people in sports history.

Of the many, many things to remember about him, this is what I will remember most:

He wanted his Yankees to win championships more than any other thing. It drove all of his decision-making, for better and worse. He spent whatever he needed to and demanded success.

I respect that he felt an obligation for the Yankees to be the greatest franchise in sports -- and he lived with that obligation always in mind.

Condolences to his family, friends and Yankee fans.

Today's SN column digs into the All-Star Game of fresh faces, Big Papi's Derby revival, John Wall winning over the NBA, the NCAA vs. Facebook, Tim Tebow and EA's NCAA Football 11 and More. See it all here.

-- D.S.

Monday, July 12, 2010

07/12 Quickie: Spain, LeBron, Wall, ASG

So at this point, everyone knows that as it relates to LeBron and the Heat, at best it was highly unseemly and at worst it was tampering with the biggest star in the league.

Now, it probably wouldn't have mattered: LeBron was going to team up with D-Wade and Bosh anyway -- hmm...or would he?

That's the litmus test of true tampering: In the absence of the tamp effort, would LeBron have made a different choice? In this case, it is unclear, one way or the other.

It is a moot point: The NBA will ignore it, and for all the bluster from the Cavs, they had no problems doing a sign-and-trade to give LeBron as much money as possible.

(For those of us who read the signals a long time ago that LeBron was going to abandon Cleveland, it is easy to say in hindsight that the Cavs should have traded him.)

In today's SN column, I led with Paul the Octopus as an excuse to predict that the league wouldn't do anything about LeBron and the Heat's tampering. More in today's column:

*John Wall is going to spend next season living at the free-throw line.

*Spain wins the World Cup: Gotta love the biggest sports thing to ever happen to a country.

(What would be the US analogue? No question: "Miracle on Ice" in 1980. I'm going to narrowly define it, because it is very hard not to put "Jackie Robinson integrates baseball" at No. 1 of any list related to defining sports moments in the US. It's parsing, but maybe that's the difference. Damn, should have led the column with that.)

*Forlan wins the Golden Boot: Love this pick.

*Nick Swisher might not win the HR Derby, but he will make it more fun.

*If the Heat retain Udonis Haslem AND get Derek Fisher, I'll revise my prediction and say they will win the NBA title. But they won't get either.

*Jordan Farmar is coming to Brooklyn. I mean...

*Putting on my octopus hat, I think that Carmelo's marriage lasts longer than Carrie's.

*Totally approve of EA re-signing with ESPN -- and it's brilliant to put her on GameDay (plus extending GameDay by an hour -- ESPN's best studio show).

Packed column today: See it here. More later. Big week!

-- D.S.

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Sunday (Holland-Spain) Quickie

I will miss the World Cup. But I enjoy the styles of both the Netherlands and Spain -- it will be a great first-time champ, regardless of who wins. (I'll say... Holland.)

I think the big point is that for whichever country, a World Cup title will be the greatest moment in their sporting history, not unlike France in '98. That is going to be so cool to watch.

Travis Wood: So close!

Cliff Lee's Rangers debut: Complete-game...loss.

Rockies win 6th straight: If you had to put a bet down on the NL West champ, would it be the Padres -- or Colorado? I'm on the Rox bandwagon.

LeBron Watch: "Witness" poster removed. Obviously. (Protection?)

SuperFriends update: Not sure whether I like or hate that nickname yet. But if they can get Derek Fisher, it would be a coup. (Anyone else want to see them sign AI and T-Mac, too?)

NBA Free Agency: Will the Bulls get JJ Redick or will the Magic match? Not a bad situation for the one-time "bust."

(BTW: It's good to be Wes Matthews. All the more reason your draft slot is irrelevant -- it's all about fit and opportunity.)

NBA Summer in Vegas: Derrick Caracer, steal of the draft?

Enjoy your day.

-- D.S.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Saturday (Very) Quickie

Nothing new to say about LeBron? Sweet relief!

Rangers get Cliff Lee: You'd never think the team was in dire financial straits! From a fan perspective, you have to love them going for it when they have a chance. (Plus, it keeps Lee from the Yankees, which would have been devastating to any other contender.)

Strasburg Watch: 8 Ks and a W.

Seantrel Henderson to Miami: This is college football's not-quite-equivalent of LeBron going to play in Miami. Henderson could very well be the No. 1 overall pick of the 2013 NFL Draft.

Ryan Howard vs. Joey Votto: Howard says "Take that!"

John Wall has a groin injury: Ahh, gotta love that old Bullets/Wizards curse.

LeBron NOT happy with Dan Gilbert letter: Couldn't resist a little LeBron news. Was he offended by the Comic Sans font?

Bulls get Kyle Korver: Great fit for Chicago, the sleeper pick to upend the sense of "Miami-fest Destiny" down in South Beach. He and Mike Miller for the Heat will play big roles.

Knicks zeroing in on Raymond Felton? He will do really well in a D'Antoni offense, but you can't help thinking it's a half-measure.

Fantasy: Is Daniel Hudson available in your league? Might be worth a look -- I had been sitting on him for weeks (only on my "Watch List") and I was asleep at the wheel when Peavy got injured. By this morning? Gone to a league rival.

Enjoy the day.

-- D.S.

-- D.S.

Friday, July 09, 2010

07/09 Quickie: LeBron, LeBron, LeBron

In case you missed it last night, see the post below for my own bit of Stephen A. Smith triumphalism of "I told you so" from July 6...

Oh, sorry: That would be July 6, 2006.

Otherwise, today's SN column is dominated by what might have eclipsed the Saints winning the Super Bowl as the sports story of the year: LeBron to the Heat.

Let me sum up a lot of the strands of thought I've been pulling together over the last few weeks:

*I don't begrudge LeBron his choice at all -- except to the extent he mismanaged its execution with respect to Cleveland fans, who deserved better.

*I see this as the apex of LeBron's sense of exceptionalism: That "solo star winning title" has been done -- virtually every time. "Star in prime opts to join with other stars in prime" has NEVER been done. It feeds LeBron's sense of history.

*However, that history can only be fulfilled with titles. Plural. Probably more than two.

That's the burden of the expectations that LeBron has set up -- what I would argue are the highest expectations for a player in NBA history:

Not just winning a championship, but enough titles to be notable. That ain't two. That ain't even three. Any less than 4 (in 5 years, mind you!) is, in my opinion, falling short of expectations.

*I am not convinced -- at all -- that even one championship for the Heat is a gimme over the next five years:

Year 1: They won't beat the Lakers. No chance.
Years 2-4: Good luck getting past Dwight Howard.

(Sidebar: Consider for a moment that if the Heat can't beat the Magic in the playoffs, LeBron-Wade-Bosh might not even be the best team in the state, let alone the East, let alone the NBA.)

Year 5: Kevin Durant will be destroying the league by then.

Window closed.

*I have serious qualms about 3 stars (or 2 stars and a wannabe star) being enough to win 16 playoff games while playing with 9 scrubs -- even if quality vets decide they'd play for the league minimum to be a part of the "Sorta-Dream Team."

That said: I think the Mike Miller signing is outstanding. He is the perfect fit for that team: A tall 3-point ace who can pass like a point guard. Miller could average 20 ppg, just on 3s.

(For Miller, let me coin a phrase: "Stretch-3.")

*Even if this is "mold-breaking," LeBron really is Pippen in this scenario.

And I don't know whether he's fine with that characterization (I'm sure he's not), but that's what he left himself with.

*Dan Gilbert's letter was as entertaining as it was insane.

*We've turned a corner on this storyline. I think the NBA just got as interesting as it has ever been, precisely because of this move.

*Don't buy the stuff about how this makes the league uncompetitive. For starters, there were 1.5 teams last season with a real chance to win the title. (And probably no more than a half-dozen who were even remotely in the conversation.)

The Heat joins that list. In fact, beating the Heat becomes the No. 1 story of the NBA. Either they live up to the expectations and win a championship or they are an utter failure (just like the Cavs were with LeBron last year).

What could be more dramatic than that?

Complete SN column here.

-- D.S.

Thursday, July 08, 2010

LeBron to the Heat

The Daily Quickie from July 6, 2006:

Two Words For You:
LEAVE. LAND.

Who else finds LeBron's silence about the "max" deal he has been offered from the Cavs to be the summer's most intriguing story line?

(Well, certainly not fans in Ohio, who could be forgiven for being in a panic right now.)

The offer was made days ago; Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade already have gone public with their enthusiasm to re-sign with their teams.

But not LeBron. Not yet.

So let's read between the lines of his decision not to publicly embrace the team's mega-offer to the NBA's megastar:

Does he really want to play in Cleveland, some half-baked market, for the Cavs, some half-baked franchise already being lapped by competitors in the East planning for the descent of Detroit and sunset of Shaq?

I don't care about previous statements of loyalty LeBron has made about Ohio. Actions are louder than words:

His silence indicates that he's at least considering his options, which have to include playing in a market worthy of his status as the NBA's biggest star -- say, New York or L.A.?

But Kobe rules L.A. And the Knicks are a mess, both in the standings and in the payroll. That leaves the intrigue for LeBron of playing for his buddy and mentor, Jay-Z, who happens to be owner of the soon-to-be-Brooklyn Nets.

Maybe that's a pipe dream from someone who owns a tiny slice of real estate in Brooklyn and would like to see the market get a "LeBron bump."

But even that pie/sky theory is a better explanation today than any Cavs fan can offer for why LeBron hasn't said "yes" to Cleveland yet.

The longer LeBron waits to agree to the Cavs' offer, the more intense the questions (and theories) will get. Here are LeBron's options:

(1) Simple: Sign the max deal with the Cavs and lock in the big money for five years.

(2) Complicated: Sign a 1-year deal with the Cavs and be a restricted free agent in '07. It gets messy, but effectively, he'd trade two years of uncertainty (and low dollars) for the glory of unrestricted choice in '08.

Here's the X-factor that should have Cavs fans worried: Cash on hand.

It's not as if LeBron needs the money now. He easily could live off his endorsement money and wait out his unrestricted freedom.

Could he get injured between now and then? Sure. But I suspect even a half-speed LeBron is still worth a huge payday to the team of his choice.

The bottom line is that LeBron can end all the rumors with a simple, MJ-like message:

"I'm staying."

In the absence of saying that, it's way too easy to argue that his real message is:

I want out.

Afternoon Thoughts on LeBron to Miami

Let's accept on good faith that LeBron is going to the Heat -- that the leaks are true and not some sort of odd subterfuge to manufacture extra drama for tonight, when he will pick someone else.

Here are a few points I've been mulling over:

*Why is there an assumption that the Bron-Wade-Bosh (or is that Wade-Bron-Bosh) Heat are this lock to win the championship? It's uncertain that they're even the best team in Florida, let alone the NBA.

*The 2010-2011 Lakers would destroy the Bron-Wade-Bosh Heat in the Finals.

*It's not like LeBron's Cavs in 09/10 were crappy -- they were a 60-win team, the No. 1 seed in the East and the presumptive favorites to win the East (and the title). Hmm...

...That earned LeBron a 2nd-round playoff exit.

*So: John Hollinger projects these Bron-Wade-Bosh Heat as a 60-win team. And? It entitles them to... nothing.

*When it comes to winning championships, a 3-star team with crap around them has less of a chance of winning than a 2-star team with a solid supporting cast.

That's why I'm mildly intrigued by the idea of the Heat getting both LeBron AND Mike Miller. That gives the Heat two superstars -- Bron and Wade -- and two really good "supporting cast" guys -- Bosh and Miller. But, still: The rest of the roster is crap.

I just don't think you can win 16 games in the playoffs with a shoddy supporting cast, no matter how awesome your superstars are.

Forget the ticket sales or jersey sales or TV ratings or Q ratings or glitz or whatever. LeBron and this presumptive Heat team should be judged on championship rings.

And I'm just not sure they are as locked in on them as everyone seems to think they are.

That was one of the points I was trying to make this morning: The expectations. What if LeBron, Wade, Bosh and the Heat win one title in the next five years... will that be enough? No way.

But I would argue that they have more of a chance of winning ZERO titles in the next five years than more than one. By the way, I'm not even sure that winning two titles is enough.

Cripes, Isiah Thomas won two titles. Hakeem won two titles. MJ won more. Kobe won more. Duncan won more. Hell, Adam Morrison has two rings.

At what point would a LeBron-Wade-Bosh Heat satisfy expectations: 3 titles? Four? Five? That discounts all the competitive forces at play in the rest of the NBA: Kobe in the next year or two, Dwight Howard and the Magic after that, Kevin Durant after that.

I am just not convinced that LeBron will win championships in Miami (or anywhere, but that's another story).

Funny enough: I don't begrudge him going to Miami to play with the other two. If he thinks it's his best chance to win a ring(s), more power to him.

And, as I have argued for a week, it is entirely ground-breaking for him to choose this route -- and LeBron has proven himself as interested in being a mold-breaking exceptional as being a champion.

I simply am not ready to hand him and Wade and the Heat a ring (or more). The only thing LeBron wins tonight is greater expectations than have ever been on a basketball player in NBA history.

(Ooh: I think I just found my SN column lead tomorrow... unless he flips the script and either stays in Cleveland -- unlikely -- or goes to NYC -- unlikely.)

-- D.S.

07/08 Quickie: LeBron to...Miami?

I really wanted to have some drama on tonight's LeBron infomercial. I was holding out that Team LeBron wouldn't leak where he was going -- that was naive.

With plenty of worried caveats (ha: as if there is a penalty for being wrong when making predictions in the sports media industry), LeBron is going to the Heat.

There are a couple ways to look at this:

One -- highlighted in today's SN column -- is that it is ground-breaking in NBA history for an uber-star in his prime to willingingly team up with another uber-star.* This fits with LeBron's exceptionalist view of himself.

The other is that it is a cop-out. That it destroys competitiveness in the NBA. That it spits on the league's legacy of star rivalries. (This is not a bad argument, and Joey makes an impassioned plea.)

I don't buy the cop-out argument. For starters, I am not convinced that LeBron teaming with Wade (and Bosh) automatically means he wins an NBA title, let alone multiple titles.

Let's look at the next five years: Next year, the Lakers will still be clearly better. In the 2-3 years after that, the Heat still have no solution for Dwight Howard. In Year 5, Kevin Durant and the Thunder are destroying people. And that's if the Heat suffer no major injuries AND figure out how to use what little cap room they have left to build a championship supporting cast.

I think there is a perfectly fine chance that LeBron on the Heat with Wade doesn't win squat. Here's a twist: Even if they do win a title, the response will be a combination of "Well, they SHOULD have" and "One? Is that all?" They have lost the expectations battle before anything even starts.

And that takes us to the next implication: This whole story has been wonderful, obsessive fun. But starting tonight/tomorrow, the reality will hit that LeBron is the NBA's villain. Cleveland fans will hate him. The rest of the NBA will hate LeBron's team. They'll watch, but they'll hate.

For the sake of today's drama, it would be nice if LeBron flipped on the media and went with the Cavs or Knicks. For the long term, any of the three options -- Heat, Cavs, Knicks -- are insufferable in their own ways.

Personally, I find the Heat option to be the most intriguing -- because it is unprecedented and because of the opportunity for epic schadenfreude in the event they don't win any rings.

Otherwise, all we can root for is that things change dramatically in the next 12 hours. It could all be a set-up for the "change-of-heart" meme (Cleveland) or "bright lights, big city" meme (NYC).

Complete SN column here.

-- D.S.

* - I don't count Shaq leaving the Magic to join the Lakers with Kobe, because this was way before Kobe hit his prime. And I don't count KG and Ray Allen going to the Celtics, because those were trades, rather than straight-up free agency.

Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Wade and Bosh Team Up in Miami

It's official: Dwyane Wade will re-sign with the Heat and be joined by Chris Bosh, who is desperate to be glitzy but isn't good enough to be a top dog himself. The Heat will be better.

The outstanding question, of course, is whether tomorrow night LeBron will join them in Miami or go back to Cleveland (less momentum for Chicago or New York than earlier this morning).

If those are his two choices, it feels like a no-brainer to me: Take a bit of a pay-cut and go to Miami, creating an unprecedented collection of NBA stars in their prime.

Hell, sign up for 3 years -- if they can't win at least one NBA title in the next three seasons, the experiment is a failure anyway -- then see where things stand. By then, the Nets will be better.

The alternative is to return to Cleveland -- a team that isn't any better than it was a year ago and won't be better going forward. The town will adore him... he probably stays 3 years here, too.

Lost in all of this is the most remarkable (or unremarkable) news that Kevin Durant announced on his Twitter feed: He signed a 5-year extension with the Thunder.

He didn't hold his small-market team hostage, heading into a free agent year. He didn't need to hold a press conference -- let alone a primetime show. He just re-upped and got back to work.

I tweeted this within minutes of Durant's "announcement": Over the next six years, Durant will win more rings than LeBron. And you are sort of rooting for that, aren't you?

-- D.S.

07/07 Quickie: LeBron vs. Wade-Bosh

Two dramatic arcs of the Summer of LeBron are playing out over the next 24 hours:

(1) LeBron will make his announcement tomorrow night on ESPN in a one-hour special. As I talk about in today's SN column, this is entirely appropriate for LeBron's "king" complex.

In fact, this may be the most authentic thing that LeBron has done in his entire career. And that makes me kind of like it, in all its distasteful excess.

Sure, the show is 99 percent fluff. But for that one minute -- presuming that the news hasn't leaked ahead of time -- it is honest-to-god sports awesomeness: Uncertainty in a huge story that will have impact that extrudes way more than a mere championship win.

(2) Wade and Bosh are apparently announcing today their intention to join forces in Miami. It's a win for both: Wade gets a running mate (and cred for not leaving town); Bosh gets the glitzy address he has coveted for years.

But there is a bigger implication: What does it mean for LeBron? Let's lay out the scenarios:

*Join Wade and Bosh in Miami: I think it's too much of a pay cut and too much of an ego trim.

*Go it "alone" in Chicago: No Wade or Bosh, obviously. But Carlos Boozer is still available; he would make a terrific addition to that team.

*Join Amare in New York: Up until this morning, I gave the Knicks no chance. Now, I give them a puncher's chance. It isn't entirely unthinkable that he would go to NYC.

*Stay in Cleveland. Let's see: Bosh is off the table. Boozer is persona non grata. The rest of the team has been proven to be lacking in championship mettle. Why would he stay? Loyalty?

Here's the thing: They are all viable options, and that's what makes tomorrow night so intriguing. One thing I will say: I think he signs a 3-year deal, wherever he goes.

(That's why I leave Brooklyn out of it for now: For now. If he does sign a 3-year deal, I think it's with the intention of joining the Nets, presuming that franchise is on the up-and-up.)

And then this circus starts again...

Complete SN column here. More later.

-- D.S.

Tuesday, July 06, 2010

07/06 Quickie: LeBron, Amare, Votto

LeBron doesn't have to make up his mind today -- and he most certainly won't, at least publicly -- but he will likely declare in 72 hours.

This is two stages: First, he needs to actually make up his mind on his own. Then, he has to tell the world what he is doing.

As I lay out in today's SN column, all of his choices have flaws -- I still contend that if the Nets were already in Brooklyn, it would be a no-brainer for him.

But he does have to decide... and soon.

Where I net out is that I now think that LeBron will take a 3-year deal with the Cavs, giving himself the option of leaving in 2014, once he sees where other teams (read: Nets) are.

This will satisfy few -- even Cavs fans.

It would be very interesting if Dwyane Wade beat him to the punch by signing with the Heat or -- more intriguingly -- the Bulls (particularly if he brings Bosh with him).

That would leave LeBron with limited options and a forced-hand... until he pulls out the 3-year "mini-max" and starts the "Summer of LeBron" clock all over again.

More you'll find in today's SN column:

*Amare to Knicks: Meh.
*Vote Votto: Please.
*C. Lee to Reds: Love.
*JaMarcus: Yikes.
*Tiger: Stinks.
*Broncos: Tebow!
*Baylor: Griffin!

Check it out here. More later.

-- D.S.

Monday, July 05, 2010

07/05 (Holiday Monday) Quickie

No SN column today, but if there was, I would probably lead with the "Vote Votto" campaign. Every year, I like to find one MLB All-Star bandwagon. One hadn't emerged yet this season, but Joey Votto's snub from the All-Star roster qualifies.

(It is all the more ludicrous that he was passed over at his own position by the NL All-Star manager, Charlie Manuel, who picked his own guy -- Ryan Howard -- despite Howard's inferior performance.)

So Vote Votto.

(BTW: I'm not expressing the outrage of others, mainly because I'm so sure that fans will correct Manuel's snub and put him on the team in a landslide. If he doesn't win the Extra Man......)

It is obvious that Stephen Strasburg was left off the "Extra Man" ballot because he would have swamped the vote. That's probably a good thing, because he would have denied Votto a spot. Still: Strasburg can and should make the team as a late replacement between now and the ASG.

Meanwhile:

*LeBron to announce his decision on Wednesday? That's the earliest, but I'm not sure we can take many more days of deliberation after that. I wouldn't read too much into LBJ's agent meeting with the Knicks on Saturday; his agent is paid to take EVERY meeting.

*Joe Johnson is going back to the Hawks: Didn't we know this, like, four days ago? It's not just that the Hawks are overpaying; it's that Johnson so clearly didn't want to come back. Both sides will regret it: The Hawks for keeping a reluctant player; Johnson for being motivated by money.

*It would have been very WWE if Kobayashi had emerged from the crowd to join the group competing in the hot-dog eating contest. Alas, he was merely arrested. Boo, IFOCE!

*Tiger's Slump: Things are actually getting worse. At the AT&T Memorial, he didn't break par over four rounds in a PGA tour event for the first time in 11 years.

*MLB Studs: Torii Hunter (2 HR, 7 RBI) and Drew Stubbs (3 HR)

*With no Federer to worry about, it seemed obvious that Nadal would win Wimbledon.

*Another day of World Cup withdrawal. Can't believe there are only 4 games left (2 semis, a 3rd-place game and the title game).

Enjoy the day off from work, if you've got one.

-- D.S.

Sunday, July 04, 2010

Sunday (July 4) Quickie

Happy July 4th everyone. Time to break out the Foreman grill...

*I knew Germany was very good and Argentina was eventually going to regress to its mean, but not to the extent of 4-0.

*Spain still hasn't played great yet. They will need it against Germany. BTW: How sick was the back-to-back PKs... both saved! Anything World Cup that "hasn't happened since 1930" is tremendous.

See how I nudged NBA Free Agency talk as low as I could go? Let's dig in:

*Cavs show a cartoon to woo LeBron: This is precisely the kind of thing that explains why he's going to leave. The others talk about billions -- the Cavs show a cute TV show.

*Amare seems to think that Tony Parker and Carmelo are both coming to NYC in 2011. The Knicks' presumptive new PF has gotten the memo that the party line from the last 2 years will be extended: "Just wait 'til next year..."

*I absolutely buy the idea that D-Wade would sign with the Bulls to be closer to his kids. Do not discount the parent's instinct, especially if he can rationalize it from a basketball perspective.

*Chris Bosh is so desperate to be a star, it's a little off-putting. Not sure why everyone thinks that he would be a key cog to a championship team. He's never won anything. At least he recognizes that he is nothing better than a running mate. But he is acting like a fame-whore.

*Dirk and Paul Pierce re-sign with the Mavs and Celtics: Zzz. Don't expect either to win rings in the next four years -- and by year 4, their teams are regretting paying out $20M a year.

*Mike Miller could be a key cog on a contender. I don't know why he would consider not playing for one (like, say, the Clippers, who he met with yesterday).

More:

*Who would be a contender to sign Mike Vick if the Eagles cut him? (Still the Rams? That can't be right, now that they have made Bradford the present and future.)

*Serena wins Wimbledon: Over the last 15 years, as great of an athlete as we have had in sports.

We'll see what happens with NBA Free Agency today. I'm betting that it is pretty quiet today and tomorrow, as players think things over.

Enjoy your 4th, everyone.

-- D.S.

Saturday, July 03, 2010

07/03 (Saturday) Quickie

Still find myself stunned by the way the Ghana-Uruguay game ended.

If you factor in the conditions (tie-breaking PK in final seconds of extra time), the history-making stakes (would have made Ghana the first African country to advance to the World Cup semis... in Africa's first hosted World Cup) and the scope of the fan footprint (not just Ghana, but all of Africa), it feels like the cruelest ending to a game in modern sports history.

I obviously don't know cruel endings around the world, but I tried to think of cruel endings in traditional US sports -- Game 6 or whatever -- and when you put it against those three qualifiers, nothing in US sports holds up. So all of Red Sox Nation was devastated after Game 6? Bah: How about all of Africa devastated after yesterday's loss?

Two more semis today, but they will be hard-pressed to match Ghana-Uruguay.

Also, isn't it nice not to have to lead with LeBron and NBA Free Agency?

So there's all this talk about Dwyane Wade taking a 2nd meeting with the Bulls. Personally, I totally discounted the idea that LeBron could join D-Wade in Chicago. It would be fascinating, even if they don't get a big to join them. I just don't see that happening (but I am enjoying the spontaneous freak-out from Miami media that their NBA meal-ticket might be skipping town).

As for Amare and the Knicks? If I was a Knicks fan, I would be uninspired about giving $100 million to Amare -- I'm not sure he's that much better than David Lee, but at way greater cost. We know Lee can produce at 20/10 without a point guard, let alone an all-world one; how about Amare?

Would Joe Johnson really turn down his $120M deal from Atlanta? If that isn't a signal that he doesn't really want to be on the team, I don't know what is. If I was the Hawks, I would take advantage of the waffling to pull the offer and rectify the mistake of giving him so much money.

Enjoy the day of World Cup, NBA Free Agent rumor-mongering, baseball and more.

-- D.S.

Friday, July 02, 2010

07/02 Quickie: LeBron, July 4, More

Sorry for the late post: Had an early-a.m. meeting, then got sucked into Holland's fairly epic upset of Brazil (which was my pick to win the World Cup....whoops).

Has LeBron signed yet? Ha, just kidding. Looks like he'll take this into next week -- wouldn't want to make his big announcement during a low-news-cycle long holiday weekend.

Today's SN column caps LeBron Week. Hopefully, we won't have to extend it too far into next week.

I will repeat my claim: If the Nets were already in Brooklyn, both LeBron and Bosh would be going to the Nets, period. The two years in Newark are a deal-breaker.

I don't understand the Rudy Gay deal, except that I guess the Grizzlies feel like they need a franchise player and Gay -- rather than, say, OJ Mayo -- is that guy. Strange.

I don't get the Knicks signing Amare to a max deal, beyond the ability to prove to LeBron that they have one of the three top PFs in hand. Otherwise, Dwight Howard is going to kill him.

There is an interesting thing going on here: If Amare is in New York and Bosh, as expected, goes to Miami, then unless LeBron wants to play in NYC or Miami, who is the PF he is paired with?

I guess Boozer would be the guy, and -- if LeBron wanted to be in Chicago -- he would convince both the Bulls and Boozer to sign Boozer to a big deal.

But what if the Nets grab Boozer? Would LeBron go to a team without a big-man running mate? Doesn't that seriously hurt his chances of winning a title?

(That gets even sketchier if/when Joakim Noah leaves Chicago for, say, New York or Brooklyn -- either next summer as a restricted FA or summer 2012 as an unrestricted FA.)

We might be starting to see the peeking of LeBron... getting boxed in? Maybe.

Anyway, it's a loaded column today, full of NBA FA, Phil Jackson's return (THE storyline of the 2010-2011 season), Josh Byrnes getting canned (I'd hire him for my team in a second), my All-Star ballots (totally conventional... no Zobrist-like mania this year) and more.

See the whole thing here. Daily updates throughout the long weekend. Otherwise, have a terrific July 4th and celebrate responsibly.

-- D.S.

Thursday, July 01, 2010

Tonight in NYC: Varsity Letters July

For those in NYC, be sure to drop by this month's Varsity Letters Reading Series event -- tonight at JLA Studios in DUMBO, Brooklyn. It's at 7:30 and free. Featuring Leitch, a guy from Lapham's Quarterly and the author of a terrific book on how wacked the youth sports system is. Oh, and LeBron will drop by to tell you what team he will be playing for. All the details here.