Saturday, February 24, 2007

Saturday 02/24 A.M. Quickie:
What Tiger Portends for March

As I settle in to watch a day of college hoops, I'm struck by Tiger Woods' third-round loss in the match-play championships. If Tiger -- the overwhelming "No. 1" seed and winner of 7 straight tournaments -- can lose in the equivalent of the Sweet 16, what does that say about the NCAA Tournament chances of a pre-Tournament favorite like Florida (not to mention Wisconsin/Ohio State, UNC or UCLA)? It says that whether it's golf or college hoops, in a one-and-done format, anything can happen. Just a little something to keep in mind as college hoops hits its climax. -- D.S.

28 comments:

nep1293 said...

The match play is an absolute crapshoot. The biggest odds on a single match are usually no greater than 3:1. contrast that with the NCAA tourney and you have 50:1 dogs in the first round and you still get 10:1 dogs in the sweet 16. Comparing the 2 is just stupid

Kevin said...

What the hell? Sorry Dan, but that's the dumbest post you've ever written.

jhawkjjm said...

It's not that stupid to compare the two. For example a senior lead Kansas team that in the previous 3 years went to the Final Four, National Championship, and Elite Eight (lost in OT) got a 3 (or 4) seed and was bounced in the first round by Bucknell because of poor shooting. And that was a very talented Kansas team expected to make another deep run.

But that's what makes the NCAA tourney so great to watch.

We doing a "quickie" readers group again this year?

Tyler said...

What strikes me is the fact that we knew this all along. "Blah blah blah anything can happen in the NCAA's/MLB playoffs/NFL playoffs/ANY TOURNAMENT STYLE FORMAT!!!" Duh.

nep1293 said...

When Kansas lost to Bucknell, it was a "holy shit" moment. Tiger losing to Nick O'Hern or anybody other tour pro would be like Florida losing to someone like Washington St, it would be a little surprising but not groundbreaking at all. There really shouldn't be any surprise when a top seed loses at the match play. It's a weird event, there are "George Mason" type players making the final 4 every year. It would be much more surprising if Tiger, Mickelson, Vijay and Els made the final 4

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

What? I'm on board with jhawkhim. Sorry, Dan, I realize you have college hoops on the brain, and sorrt that I don't have anything more constructive to add, but... what?

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

Actually, I meant I'm on board with kevin.

pv845 said...

Did anyone see the nice shove Noah gave to Mason after getting dunked on?

Kurt said...

Isn't it ironic that Dan is covering his ass just in case Florida is bounced early from the tourney, on the day Florida is getting spanked by an awful LSU team without Glen Davis.

J Fitty said...

Hoya Paranoia is RUNNING WILD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

pv845 said...

I wonder sometimes if Clark Kellog is even watching the same game that is on TV.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

I wonder sometimes if Clark Kellog is even watching the same game that is on TV.

I wonder if Clark Kellog is ever watching the same game that is on TV.

Also, if the Gators keep playing this shitty and polish of the loss at LSU, it would be time I think for Dan to bring back one of his favorite Quickie talking points: schadenfreude.

pv845 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

That's what I get for gushing earlier this week on the monumentally awesome, important #1 vs. #1 game this weekend. Now it couldn't be more meaningless, and I might not even watch.

Ladies and gentlemen, I present your #1 seeds, now set in stone: UCLA, UNC, OSU, and Wisconsin.

(And yes there's still 6 minutes left in the UF-LSU game. And yes it doesn't matter if the Gators come back--they're #1 seed is lost.)

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

"their" even...

pv845 said...

Ohio State is not a #1 seed. I don't know for sure who is, but unless they win tomorrow, they will have only one win against a ranked team.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

It's the "I don't know who is" that's the problem. It can't be Florida--LSU is a horrible loss (aren't they still outside the RPI top 100?) It can't be Pitt now. Maybe Kansas? But Ohio State, despite a really great win, still has only lost to Wisconsin, UNC, and UF--3 of the top 6 or 7 teams in the country. So yeah, I think OSU has the #1 seed locked up--unless they lose to Wisconsin two more times. And I don't think that will happen.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

...a lack of a really great win... I mean

Kurt said...

I think Georgetown has the potential to be a really high #2 seed or even a #1 seed if they keep up this massacre. They've won 11 straight, if they roll through their last two games and the Big East tournament, they should get serious consideration.

Gary said...

Texas A & M could get a 1 seed if they win out from here on in...that is if Fla still plays crappy.

Georgetown could get a 1 seed if they win the Big East.

Thats about it though outside the teams already mentioned (UNC, UCLA, OSU, WISC, KAN, FLA)

Mike said...

I'll tell you what - UF/OSU go out early in their conf tourneys and Georgetown if they win the Big East could be your 4th 1 seed. Not kidding.

pv845 said...

The winner of the Big XII tourney will/should be a #1 seed (assuming a AM and KU win out).
FL will/should not be a #1 seed. They have been overrated all season. Yes, they won 15 or so in a row, but they have beaten NO ONE. OSU was weak at the time. Their only win versus a ranked team other than OSU was Kentucky.
I have to say that this is the year with the most parity in college that I can remember.

GuyInTheCorner said...

Match Play Championships are not even close to the same thing as the NCAA tourney.

I heard a bunch of stats (courtesy of the Elias Sports Bureau Inc.) before match play started that a guy with a ranking above 50 has one as many times as a guy ranked in the top 5.

Needless to say that simply is not the case with the NCAA.

As for the Who's #1 debate... no one can say for sure. If I had to say, it'd be UNC, WISCO, UCLA, and OSU if they beat WISCO / UNC if they go to the ACC title game / Kansas assuming they don't lose before the Big 12 title game.

beer for breakfast said...

Dan -

Gotta agree, that post made ZERO sense.

As for the Hoyas...wow, this team is officially scary. Honestly, I could see this team in Atlanta, the way they played today against a solid Pitt team. Of course, we'll have to see how that rematch in MSG goes.

Todd Ching said...

I don't really love the NCAA comparison either, but I will add this. With Tiger losing in a match play 1x1 like this, it shows how great Roger Federer is at tennis. More dominating than Tiger.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

With Tiger losing in a match play 1x1 like this, it shows how great Roger Federer is at tennis. More dominating than Tiger.

Personally, I think it shows how much harder golf is for any one individual to dominate. Which should make us more appreciative of what Tiger has done and is doing in the sport.

Their only win versus a ranked team other than OSU was Kentucky.

Umm, Kentucky isn't even ranked now. But they probably will be by the end of the year, so if you want to count them as a ranked team, OK. Bama and Vandy are ranked and UF beat them. And what exactly made OSU so much weaker at Christmastime than they are now? I think with UF it's clear that they're not overrated, they're just meddenly inconsistant. Which really is the same as every year for the Gators. If they turn it on for the NCAA's, there's no question: they're the favorite, even as a 2-seed. Remember, a year ago they were looking even worse than they are now, and that turned out OK.

kway34 said...

And what exactly made OSU so much weaker at Christmastime than they are now?

How about the fact that it was Oden's second or third game back after sitting for 8 months and he had almost no use of his right (strong) hand?

Dave Rothgery said...

With Tiger losing in a match play 1x1 like this, it shows how great Roger Federer is at tennis. More dominating than Tiger.

Personally, I think it shows how much harder golf is for any one individual to dominate. Which should make us more appreciative of what Tiger has done and is doing in the sport.


The thing is, before FedEx started dominating men's tennis, the sport was extraordinarily competitive. And it's not like Rafael Nadal or Andy Roddick or James Blake or Leyton Hewitt or any of the other top-10 players are bad -- these guys are really good, and if it weren't for FedEx the race for #1 would be massive free-for-all.