Sunday, November 01, 2009

BlogPoll Top 25 Ballot: Texas Up, USC Down

This week's BlogPoll ballot. I was impressed enough with Texas' biggest win of the season -- convincingly -- that I put them at No. 1, but I don't put last week's No. 1 -- TCU -- that far behind.

I think Florida proved enough to put them at No. 3, but only slightly ahead of Cincinnati. Alabama looks slightly better for Tennessee's convincing win over South Carolina -- but only barely.

I put Oregon over Boise State -- yes, Boise beat Oregon head-to-head, but Oregon's overall resume is stronger... much stronger, actually. (I am trying really hard not to discount Boise's win as coming in Boise the first week of the season, with the implication being that if the two teams played now on a neutral field, Oregon would win. Too much speculation; I'll stick with resume.)

I know I am ranking Iowa too low. But I watched that entire game yesterday, and I'm so unimpressed. And their resume is OK, but I would argue not as impressive as Oregon, which lost at Boise, yes, but also beat Utah and USC -- better than Iowa winning at Penn State? Individually, no; as a combination, yes.

As for USC, I would love to have dropped them further, but after the Top 10 or 11, I think things start to get really shaky, with teams having more arguments against them than for them.

Rankings follow. Please let me know how I should adjust.

RankTeamDelta
1 Texas 2
2 TCU 1
3 Florida 1
4 Cincinnati 2
5 Alabama
6 Oregon 2
7 Boise State
8 LSU 2
9 Iowa 3
10 Georgia Tech 2
11 Utah 3
12 Penn State 1
13 Houston 2
14 Southern Cal 5
15 Ohio State 5
16 Pittsburgh 2
17 Miami (Florida)
18 Arizona 3
19 Virginia Tech 3
20 Oklahoma 2
21 Oklahoma State 6
22 South Florida
23 California
24 Auburn
25 Notre Dame
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: West Virginia (#19), Central Michigan (#23), South Carolina (#24), Mississippi (#25).

4 comments:

Ben said...

Iowa's resume is OK...but not better than Oregon's?

Let's see...

Iowa beat Penn State, at Penn State, by double digits
Iowa beat Arizona, at home, by double digits
Iowa beat Wisconsin, at Wisconsin, by double digits

compared to

Oregon beat USC, at home, convincingly
Oregon beat Utah, at home, by seven
Oregon LOST to Boise, at Boise, by double digits

Both have had "close" games that shouldn't have been close, but they won the game, which is ultimately what matters.

Exactly how is Oregon's resume better? That big fat L on Oregon's resume speaks louder than anything else on either resume.

Iowa just doesn't win "pretty". Last I checked, a win is a win.

As for "unimpressed"...outscoring Indiana 35-3 in the 2nd half, despite throwing 4 interceptions, isn't impressive? What exactly WOULD be impressive? Yes it was an ugly game, as have most of Iowa's games been. But they've won each one. That's all that should count, in the end.

SwaggerTooth said...

I assume the reason you didn't put Ohio State ahead of USC is because of head to head. So explain Oregon over Boise St. I know you think Oregon would win that game TODAY, but that's not how you base your entire poll. You usually base your poll on what teams have accomplished on the field SO FAR and not what you "think" would happen in the future. If the latter was the case, then I'm sure you wouldn't think that the championship game should be Texas vs. TCU...right???

SwaggerTooth said...

Also, please explain, by using this "resume" theory, how LSU is #8 (too high). And also break down the "resumes" of TCU and UF and explain your ranking.

I think your poll, which I mostly respect a lot during the first few weeks of the season, becomes compromised when you rely too much on "resume" and not enough of what the essence a poll really is: who do YOU think is the best/better team. Remember, it's a POLL, not an order of any kind of official "standings".

D.S. said...

Ben, I like your reasoning -- Iowa will be moved up.

Swaggertooth -- I keep USC over Ohio State because, all other things equal, USC's resume is better. Take away the head-to-head win and USC has a bad road loss to a great team (Oregon) and a terrible road loss to an OK team (Washington). Ohio State has a home loss to that team and a road loss to an OK team (Purdue, which actually should have beaten Oregon at Oregon). If Ohio State beats Penn State this weekend, I will absolutely put the "Oregon-Boise Rule" into effect for the Buckeyes. And I actually think Ohio State WILL win that game, believe it or not.