I said this earlier this week: Celtics over the Heat in 5.
The Heat falling short of an NBA title this year has been obvious since the night of the Decision. Getting drummed out by the Celtics in the conference semifinals would inflict maximum humiliation -- not unlike the way LeBron was drummed out a year ago, when he quit.
The Heat are better than they were in the middle of the season, when the Celtics punched them in the face, repeatedly. But the playoffs are so different than the regular season, and this is where Boston's mental toughness -- a qualitative assessment, to be sure -- is superior to LeBron's or Bosh's.
The Celtics have one more ass-kicking in them (maybe two, if the conference finals count), and what would be more epic (aside from a title) than kicking the Heat's ass.