03/16 Quickie: Bracket Self-Doubt

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There is something comforting about the rhythm of the first week of the NCAA Tournament. The brackets come out Sunday night. There is a flood of info on Monday as you make your picks. Then, Tuesday: The self-doubt.

The lead of today's SN column highlights my biggest doubts, region-by-region, on my bracket:

*Georgetown over Ohio State
*Xavier to the Elite Eight
*Washington to the Sweet 16
*My knee-jerk Duke antipathy, which blinds me to the arguably reasonable notion that they are headed to the Final Four.

I still feel better about this bracket than any I have filled out in years -- hmm, perhaps aside from the year that Florida won its second title and I had no doubt they would win it again as I filled out my bracket.

On the other hand, aside from those few picks above, my bracket lacks those stunning reaches that make the Tournament exciting. But I have gotten over the idea of proving how smart I am through longshot Tournament bracket-picking; I'll settle for feeling middle-of-the-pack right.

More you'll find in today's column:

• My annual homage to the Play-In Game!
• Um, should we worry about the Cuse?
• Brady Quinn is delusional.
• Tiger/Masters boffo ratings? Obviously.
• Andre apologizes: He knew better.
• Cliff Lee is kind of competitive.
• I still believe in the Rockets.
• Gilbert is contrite -- let him back.
• Putting "peephole" into prison context.

Check out the entire column here. More later.

-- D.S.

Yahoo Acquiring Citizen Sports?

Coincidentally timed to my WSJ column earlier today, the WSJ's Kara Swisher floats a really interesting rumor: That Yahoo is about to acquire a major sports company, and that Citizen Sports seems like the most likely fit.

First of all, I know Jeff Ma and the Citizen Sports group, and they are brilliant, terrific people creating an absolutely phenomenal product -- they are at the leading edge. They have the Sportacular iPhone app, but for their best stuff, go to Facebook, where they understand the space as well as any company out there, including Zynga.

And what they do -- particularly in social media -- would fit snugly in Yahoo's portfolio of sports products. It's a complement -- and something that keeps pace with ESPN in the social media space.

But there's more: In the same way that Carol Bartz recognized that Jamie Mottram's sports-blog strategy was a template for other categories (News, Entertainment, etc.), the Citizen Sports platform capabilities can be leveraged for way more than sports. And it will be.

On the one hand, Citizen Sports would help Yahoo connect with their users in new and different and powerful ways. On the other, of course, there is tremendous revenue potential to unlock -- either with brand sponsorships or a la carte mobile applications.

Credit Yahoo for dipping into start-up sports media to help the company grow. And Citizen Sports would be a hell of a smart acquisition -- the $50 million Swisher is talking about seems like a great price.

I'm surprised that AOL didn't pursue this more aggressively, because it is a similarly good fit for what AOL is trying to do, esp. at that price.

Tracking, but all eyes on Carol Bartz at the World Sports Congress on Wednesday in Yahoo's LA backyard.

-- D.S.

Picking NCAA Brackets: Kansas, Duh

I just filed my annual column making my bracket picks for the Wall Street Journal. After last year's worst-ever 12th-percentile finish, I explained that my system has gone through an overhaul -- the equivalent of gastric-bypass surgery (uh, "bracket-bypass surgery?").

No more empty calories and super-sized portions, represented by too-clever-by-half over-thinking. Portion control.

I'll post it when it is live, but I'm ready to reveal my bracket now, a sneak peek for DS.com:

Champ: Kansas
Final Four: Kansas over Syracuse, Kentucky over Villanova.

Midwest:
1st Rd: 1 Kansas, 8 UNLV, 5 Mich St, 4 Maryland
11 San Diego St, 3 G'town, 7 Oklahoma St, 2 Ohio St.
Regional: Kansas, Michigan St, G'town, Ohio State.
Midwest champ: Kansas over G'town.

Analysis: Chalk (except SDSU over Tennessee). 5 Mich St over 4 Maryland isn't an upset. 3 G'town over 2 Ohio St isn't an upset (but it is iffy). Yes, Kansas has a tough path, but they are also clearly the best team in the country. This region is rugged but predictable.

West:
1st Rd: 1 Cuse, 8 Gonzaga, 5 Butler, 4 Vandy
6 Xavier, 3 Pitt, 7 BYU, 2 Kansas State
Regional: Cuse, Butler, Xavier, K-State
West champ: Cuse over Xavier

Analysis: Chalk 1st round. I don't consider Xavier over Pitt an upset, if you know X-Men's Tourney history. (Same with Xavier over K-State. OK, so I'm in the tank for Xavier.) Yes, BYU over Florida, ending the Gators' NCAA Tournament winning streak at 12.

East:
1st Rd: 1 Kentucky, 8 Texas, 12 Cornell, 4 Wisco
11 Washington, 3 New Mex, 10 Mizzou, 2 WVU
Regional: Kentucky, Wisco, Washington, WVU
East champ: Kentucky over West Virginia

Analysis: I'm suckered for Cornell (Temple is under-seeded). Wisconsin will give Kentucky its toughest game. I feel OK not buying New Mexico; but I can envision great regret taking Washington, won't I?

South:
1st Rd: 1 Duke, 9 L'ville, 12 Utah St, 13 Siena
6 Notre Dame, 3 Baylor, 7 Richmond, 2 Nova
Regional: Duke, Utah St, Baylor, Nova
South champ: Nova over Duke.

Analysis: I couldn't take Duke to win the region. You knew that. I am obsessed with the Spokane sub-region: Purdue is the worst over-seed since Cincinnati as a 1 in 2000, and Utah State will have huge "home-ish" support in Spokane. I may be a year too late on Nova, and merely trying to make up for taking UCLA over Nova in the 2nd round from last year: My debacle.

OK, let's get to your picks. Don't forget to get into the Daily Quickie Readers Tournament Challenge. The original returns!

-- D.S.

NCAA National Bracket: Early Look

Longtime readers know that I look at the "National Bracket" - the aggregation of all bracket picks - for "wisdom of the crowd" clues. In very early returns, there are few notables:

In the 1st round, there is only 1 upset: Georgia Tech over Oklahoma State. (Louisville over Cal doesn't count.)

In the 2nd round, there are two upsets, but not really: 5 Michigan State over 4 Maryland and 5 Texas A&M over (over-seeded) 4 Purdue. Both are by 54-46 percentages.

From there, the bracket is all chalk. The closest there is to an upset is Ohio State over Georgetown by a 51-49 polling margin. But, again: Chalk rules.

The National Bracket always closely correlates to the seeding, so don't look for much unconventional thinking.

Then again, if you had used the National Bracket last year, you would have outperformed 88 percent of all brackets. So there's that.

-- D.S.

Analyzing the NCAA Bracket

It's Sunday night and I've already filed my "Monday morning" column to Sporting News -- no need to wait: The entire thing is about the bracket, and within a couple hours, I knew how I was thinking about it.

I'm also putting together my annual take-you-through-my-thought-process column for the Wall Street Journal, so I don't want to "spoil" that, but here's the gist:

I'm not going to screw things up like I did last year, when I tried to be all cutesy and show how smart I was. Occam's Razor, my friends: Kansas over Kentucky, and I ain't looking back.

Much more on this in a bit, but the only things I'm sticking with are: (1) No matter what their seed, Duke will underperform. That they are a 1-seed -- and that they are on a collision course with Villanova, a movie we saw last year -- doesn't change that.

And (2) I cannot understand how Purdue earns a 4-seed. You cannot go with "resume" or "body of work" when so much of that was wrapped up in a player who is not available, and all evidence we have is that the team is not very good. Purdue losing to Siena will be a very trendy pick, and I probably will not be able to resist it -- given that even if Purdue beats Siena (or even beats the Texas A&M-Utah State winner), they ain't getting further. But I'm betting on the former.

Here we go: I'm already slipping down the rabbit hole. I could spend the next three hours writing out commentary on everything I'm thinking right now about the bracket. I'll post my Sporting News link as soon as it's ready, and otherwise will chime in with more later Monday.

This really is the best few days of the sports year, even these 72 hours before anything happens on the court. Enjoy it! How's YOUR bracket look?

-- D.S.

Daily Quickie Readers Bracket Challenge

The 2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket is out, so take one of your multiple entries and be sure to join the Daily Quickie Readers group of the Tournament Challenge.

More in a bit.

Selection Sunday (Bubble) Quickie

Countdown to 6 p.m. There are 1-2 at-large bids in play (between yesterday morning and today, two were securely claimed by UTEP and Utah St, which both lost in their respective conference finals).

Question: Did Minnesota earn its way to an at-large bid, even if they lose to Ohio State? (And if they DO beat Ohio State, which team on the Bubble definitely loses out?)

All the bracket projections seem to indicate that Mississippi State has not yet earned an at-large bid, despite beating Florida and Vandy on back-to-back days.

Speaking of Florida, the Gators seem to be that team that is most tenuously on (or off) the Bubble. (Illinois might be, too.)

Know who is really hating life? Akron. Had a chance to win their way in and lost to Ohio.

Of yesterday's Bubble teams who lost, Cal is still in -- despite the Pac-10 being terrible this year, their RPI is Top 25.

UNLV should still be in -- congrats to San Diego State, which started the week as a solid "out" and not only earned an at-large invite, but got the auto-bid.

Xavier: Definitely still in. Have been locks for weeks. (Richmond is a lock, too, even if they lose to Temple in the final.)

Georgia Tech is definitely in, even if they lose to Duke today.

Speaking of losers, it is going to be fascinating to see where Purdue gets seeded: Resume vs. reality. They are obviously not the same team they were with Hummel.

Let's review the action at the margin. If you assume Utah St and Georgia Tech are definitely in, let's call it 2 spots for these teams:

VA Tech
Florida
Illinois
Ole Miss
Mississippi St
Minnesota

Obviously, if Mississippi State and/or Minnesota win, then it is likely that Florida, VA Tech, Illinois and Ole Miss are out.

If MSU and Minnesota lose, I think it comes down to VA Tech, Florida and Illinois for 2 spots. Illinois' RPI is in the 70s; VA Tech played a PATHETIC schedule; Florida couldn't win when it mattered most.

Of the three, I could see the committee taking Illinois and Florida, punishing VA Tech for padding its schedule with terrible teams and rewarding Illinois and Florida for putting together tougher schedules.

As usual, I don't think anyone -- aside from that team's fans -- is going to cry or gripe about their team being left out. All had their chance to win 1 or 2 more games to get themselves securely in the field, and didn't.

One eye on Minnesota, one eye on Mississippi State. But otherwise, let's get to 6 p.m. already!

-- D.S.

Saturday (Bubble) Quickie

If I was on the Selection Committee, I would evaluate things like this on the Bubble this morning:

IN, for sure:
San Diego St
UNLV
Illinois
Georgia Tech
Washington/Cal loser

MAYBE:
VA Tech (apparently, a lock)
Ole Miss (apparently, a lock)
Florida (apparently, a lock)

Rhode Island (can play itself in with a win over Temple?)
Mississippi State (apparently screwed)
Minnesota (what if they beat Purdue?)

OUT:
Dayton

I don't know what to do with that SEC trio on the "Maybe" list. Ole Miss and Florida were both in, heading into yesterday. Both lost. Ole Miss was probably supposed to lose (vs. Tennessee in Nashville?) But Florida-Mississippi State was really a "play-in" situation; it is very easy for the Committee to judge two Bubble teams when they play head-to-head.

It's hard for me to laud San Diego State and UNLV for winning huge, must-win games against better teams and not smack Florida for choking when it matters most. All "bracketologist" stuff suggests Florida is still in, but it wouldn't surprise me if MSU leap-frogged them. (And yet the leading bracket projection aggregator has MSU out and not even close.)

Not many Bubble teams left that can do something to help themselves go from "out" to "in" today. Rhode Island, playing Temple. Mississippi State, apparently, needs another win in the SEC. Minnesota may have to do more than just beat Purdue today.

Every other at-large spot seems accounted for.

-- D.S.

03/12 Quickie: Bracket Already Busted

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Last March, I set a new low for worst bracket performance of my life -- it was epically bad. Heading into this year, my feeling was: Well, at least things can't get worse!

I find new ways to undercut myself: This year, I have been extremely bullish on Syracuse winning it all -- partly because I can't resist avoiding taking the two big favorites, Kansas and Kentucky. And partly because I really do think Syracuse can win it all.

Then yesterday, they lose their 2nd straight -- but lost Onuaku to a knee injury that will probably not prohibit him from playing in the NCAA Tournament, but certainly combines with the losses to shake my confidence in taking Syracuse all the way. Cripes, I can't catch a break on this.

Nevertheless, I'm totally locked in to college basketball right now -- with three days until Selection Sunday, you probably are, too. Today's SN column starts with my Syracuse debacle, but then gets into some serious nitty-gritty at the periphery of the Bubble.

My favorite part of today's schedule: De facto "play-in" games, in which if a Bubble team wins, they're in, and if they don't, they're out. The classic: San Diego State. But put Illinois in there, too, along with Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

After last night, I think Florida is in (even if they lose to Mississippi State). Memphis is out (and I think St. John's should break the bank to try to lure Memphis coach Josh Pastner to NYC), as is UAB. Arizona State is probably out, too, after losing to Stanford in the godawful Pac-10. (Anyone else totally want to see UCLA run the table and win the league's auto-bid?)

Here is one other thing: I never would have believed that Northwestern could reach 20 wins in a season and not even REMOTELY be in the Bubble discussion. Not even a pity mention. The sorry part is that if they had gotten back even a single win from the four combined losses to Iowa, Indiana and Penn State (twice!), they would definitely be in the discussion.

I have a personal rooting interest today: Lafayette over Lehigh, because Lafayette starts Mike Gruner, who was the point guard on my high school's state-title winning basketball team five years ago (long after I was gone, but a huge source of pride).

I get this sense that even though I'm immersed in college hoops, the lead story of the morning probably should have been Tiger reportedly returning to golf for the Masters, which will be the most-watched tournament (and biggest s#!t show) in the history of golf.

Plus: If I get any say in the matter, can LaDainian Tomlinson come to New York?

Finally: I am actually bummed that Gilbert Arenas is changing his number from 0 to 6. "0" came to define Arenas as much as any number has ever defined a player. It was his brand. That things are so bad that he has to abandon that is sad. And even if he IS going to change his number, why change it to the number that LEBRON is changing his number to? Agent Zero: Stick with Zero.

Complete SN column here -- it will get you up to speed on everything college hoops, and more. More later.

-- D.S.

03/11 Quickie: Bubble, Big East, Big Ben

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The early part of Championship Week is interesting -- I love the auto-bid games out of one-bid leagues, like that wild comeback by Montana over Weber State last night.

But things get materially interesting on/around the Bubble starting today. Seton Hall seeing any NCAA hopes pop yesterday vs. Notre Dame was an appetizer. (Um: Louisville...WTF?)

In today's SN column, I lay out the other Bubble teams with something to win -- or lose -- today: Florida. Georgia Tech. San Diego State. Memphis. Arizona State and Washington, frankly.

Tomorrow, it gets even more crazy. Most at-large spots are clinched, obviously, but at the margins, teams' seasons are on the line today and tomorrow.

(The Big East quarters, meanwhile, are typically ridiculous: 7 of the 8 quarterfinalists are NCAA Tournament teams, and the 8th just happens to be playing a grudge match against its old coach.)

Today and tomorrow are good appetizers for a week from today and tomorrow -- can you believe that the First Thursday/First Friday is only a week away? Best two days of the sports year.

More you'll find in today's column:
*NFL's most offseason improved: Ravens?
*Big Ben admits to... what, exactly?
*More bad symbolism for the Celtics.
*Tebow's Wonderlic 22 (see Teblog).
*I love "floating realignment."

Complete column here. More later. Oh, and I taped the KSK podcast last night as a guest. Should be up later today over there. I don't think I said anything too ridiculous, although I made the first public pronouncement that I think Tim Tebow won't be a 1st-round pick. (I know.)

-- D.S.

Quickie: Turner, Big East, Strassy, More

My immersion into March and its obsessive focus on college basketball continues today, pegging today's SN column lead off SN giving its National POY award to Evan Turner.

Now, I had been on the John Wall bandwagon all year -- and he remains the biggest, most exhilarating talent in college basketball and an all-time freshman -- but something clicked for me when I finally recognized that Wall plays with 3 NBA Lottery picks, including another NBA point guard. If Wall didn't go to Kentucky, Eric Bledsoe, Cousins and Patterson would have been more than enough to get Kentucky into the Top 10.

Now, if Turner wasn't available for Ohio State -- as he wasn't for four weeks -- I would be surprised if the Buckeyes could make the Tournament. He lacks Wall's ultimate sizzle, but he is far more well-rounded... and valuable to his team.

All that said: Both Turner and Wall will be judged not on their sublime regular seasons, but on how they do in the NCAA Tournament. Turner needs nothing less than a Wade-like run to the Final Four. For Wall, the Final Four is a minimum; he really needs a championship if he wants to be spoken of in the same context as Carmelo, who I think is, game-for-game, the greatest college basketball player of the modern (post-ESPN, post-64-team-tourney, post-3-point-shot) era.

Anything less, and -- absolutely -- I think less of their college careers. Just look at Kevin Durant, who was amazing in college but couldn't even get out of the first weekend of his one and only NCAA Tournament. For me, that layers in huge disappointment.

There is a reason that college hoops is defined -- quite intensely, thank you -- for March, and not for November through February. Make your mark now, or don't make it at all.

More you'll find in today's SN column:

*UConn really stinks.
*Seton Hall-ND: Should be a NCAA play-in!
*Butler saves a Bubble spot.
*Stephen Strasburg will be just fine.
*Heat < Bobcats?
*Is NASCAR heading for crisis?

See the complete column here. More later.

-- D.S.