Sunday, October 07, 2012

This Week's BlogPoll Top 25 Ballot

Alabama, as always, joined by Oregon, although I'm going against my "resume-based" voting philosophy to vault Oregon over South Carolina or West Virginia or even Florida.

But, like Alabama, you watch Oregon and you just wonder how even a tough D like South Carolina or Florida could stop them. (Then again, that's kind of the point: Oregon and all of those crazy Big 12 offenses of the past few years turned out to be foiled by the brand of defense played at the very top of the SEC.) Let's rank the best wins of the season so far:

(1) Kansas State (at Oklahoma)
(2) Florida (vs. LSU)
(3) South Carolina (vs. Georgia)
(4) West Virginia (at Texas)
(5) Stanford (vs. USC)
(6) N.C. State (vs. Florida St.)
(7) Iowa State (vs. TCU)
(8) Washington (vs. Stanford)
(9) Florida St. (vs. Clemson)
(10) Florida (at Texas A&M)

Anyway, I add Florida to the Top 5 a bit begrudgingly -- their resume merits it, but I'm too much of a fan to want to jinx them. Guess by putting South Carolina ahead of them, I even it out for the big game two weeks from now. Nevertheless, this week's ballot:


10/7 (CFB Hangover) Quickie

The original visceral appeal of becoming a Florida fan was the expectations -- win or failure.

The past two seasons, that eroded. The frustrating Addazio offense of that final pitiful year of the Meyer Era begat the frustrating Weis offense of that first frustrating year of the Muschamp Era.

Yesterday, as I danced around the living room with my 6-month-old daughter accompanying every productive Florida play throughout that staggeringly effective second half in the win over LSU, I felt a jubilation that I hadn't since the night Florida beat Oklahoma for the national title.

It wasn't just because of the stout effort against a formidable opponent. It was because I felt the return of those "win or failure" expectations.

Those renewed expectations will make any loss on the 2012 schedule all the more painful -- South Carolina in two weeks at The Swamp suddenly has me very nervous -- but I would rather feel let-down because I expected too much than let-down because I expected too little.

Speaking of "win or fail": Florida State, suddenly entirely out of the national-title picture and irrelevant on the national scene for the rest of 2012. Congrats to NC State fans on a signature win.

And suddenly South Carolina is in "win or fail" territory: They have to beat a wounded and angry LSU team in Death Valley next Saturday, then beat a surging Florida team in Gainesville the Saturday after that, then fend of Clemson and THEN topple Alabama in the SEC title game. But after last night, it feels possible -- which is a hell of a statement.

Meanwhile: West Virginia staked its claim as the best of the Big 12 and as one of the four teams that would qualify for a mythical four-team college football playoff. They waltzed into DKR and steamrolled a Texas defense that even WVU doubters will acknowledge was much, much better than Baylor's. Is WVU's defense still suspect? Sure. Does it matter if they keep out-scoring their opponents? Not at all. I tabbed WVU as Big 12 champs in the preseason -- feeling very good about that now. The only question is how we could be denied a WVU-Oregon bowl game. Rather than see Oregon get shellacked by Alabama, couldn't we just line them up against the 'Eers for the most entertaining single-game match-up in the sport's history?

Early BlogPoll Top 25 ballot: (1) Alabama, (2) Oregon, (3) West Virginia, (4) South Carolina, (5) Florida, (6) K-State, (7) Ohio St, (8) Notre Dame, (9) Oklahoma, (10) LSU.

And a few quick notes about the MLB playoffs:

*Does Justin Verlander beat the A's in front of the rabid fans of Oakland if the LDS round had a proper home-field advantage? Maybe, maybe not. But in Detroit, he cruises and Oakland will find itself unable to dig out of an 0-2 hole if they lose today.

*The Reds' path to victory in Game 1 was non-traditional to say the least, but fascinating -- Cueto out (but possibly available for Game 3), substitutes in... a victory follows. It's almost like the Giants were more thrown off than Cincy.

*Let's go O's. Can't believe anyone outside of Yankee Nation wouldn't be pulling like crazy for Baltimore.

*And please: Let's go Nats. If they lose this opener in St. Louis, suddenly the decision to sit Stephen Strasburg will be under a lot more pressure.

-- D.S.






Friday, October 05, 2012

10/05 (What a Weekend) Quickie

Most jam-packed sports weekend of the year? Pretty close to it...

Novelty in sports is interesting. Institutional novelty -- like today's first-ever MLB "Wild Card" single-elimination game -- is fascinating. For two teams today, their hard-earned trip to the playoffs is over, more briefly than any team in the history of the league.

I'm not sure we will see any unintended consequences, but watching two managers work with their bullpens and bench players in a win-or-go-home game (even with a tough five-game LDS series starting in 48 hours) is going to be fun to watch.

Nowhere is that more obvious than in Atlanta, where the Braves will start the unbeatable Kris Medlen against the defending World Series champs. Medlen will only be available in the LDS as of Game 3 -- then again, without him winning today, Atlanta doesn't get a Game 3 in the LDS.

The American League Wild Card is no less awesome: It's unclear how anyone outside of Texas could not be rooting for the plucky (possibly lucky) Baltimore Orioles. I grew up going to Orioles games, and I know I'm pulling like crazy for them to pull it off -- their fans deserve it.

We roll from the Wild Cards today right into the LDS series, which by a questionable league decision will feature the team with the better regular-season record having to start with two games on the road. Playing 3 of 5 at home isn't quite as helpful if you are down 0-2 when you get there.

Let's get to the picks:
AL Wild Card: Rangers over Orioles.
NL Wild Card: Braves over Cardinals.
ALDS: Yankees over Rangers in 4; A's over Tigers in 4.
NLDS: Nationals over Braves in 5; Giants over Reds in 5.
ALCS: Yankees over A's in 6.
NLCS: Nationals over Giants in 7.
World Series: Nationals over Yankees in 6.

Huge weekend in college football: Plenty of "separation" storylines.
*West Virginia at Texas: Geno Smith's true Heisman moment.
*LSU at Florida: Put up or shut up for the Tigers; how far has Florida come?
*Georgia at South Carolina: De facto SEC East title game?

And some intriguing others:
*Nebraska at Ohio State: More data Urban's team is B1G's best.
*Miami at Notre Dame (at Soldier Field): What an amazing rivalry.
*Northwestern at Penn State: Arguably THE test for unbeaten Wildcats in '12.

USC survives trip to Utah: Still, Trojans are such an afterthought right now.

NFL Week 5: This week's SI cover notwithstanding, it's nice to no longer have the refs be the central storyline of the season. My five favorite storylines for Sunday:

*Peyton vs. Brady: Won't be any closer than Tebow vs. Brady was.
*Winless Saints: Sean Payton watching, San Diego ready to make it 0-5.
*Sneaky-interesting game: Eagles at Steelers. Dare to say "must-win" for Pittsburgh?
*RG3 Mania: Couldn't be a bigger win for DC than beating best-of-NFC Falcons.
*Tebow Time: If the Texans are drilling NY on MNF, it could/should be.

TNF: Rams stifle the Cardinals, and it's a signature win for Jeff Fisher in St. Louis, on national TV against a team that might have been a soft unbeaten, but unbeaten nonetheless.

Kentucky's Calipari wins again: This time landing the top-rated PG and top-rated SG of the 2013 HS class (who just happen to be twin brothers), yoinking them away from Maryland, whose coach has been recruiting them for the past 7 years and whose lead sponsor (Under Armour) has outfitted their AAU team for years.

Let's be clear: John Calipari has executed the most brilliant competitive strategy in all of sports. It is part-Moneyball, part-Yankees, part-celebrity, part-pragmatism -- it is totally unique to college hoops, but more power to him for crafting and executing it. (Want Kentucky to stop winning, college hoops rivals? Convince the NCAA to lobby the NBA to drop its age limit.)

NBA: Royce White. I'm all for the thoughtful way he and the team are dealing with his mental illness and anxiety disorder. I have no problem with him taking a bus to nearby games. But what happens when he HAS to take a plane? Will it be debilitating for him? The team clearly knew all this before they drafted him and kudos to them for working on working around it with him, but I'm skeptical the plan will work out for the long-term.

MLB: Bobby Valentine is out in Boston. Could have called this before he was even hired.

Enjoy what should be an incredible sports weekend: MLB Wild Card games tonight, incredible college football games tomorrow, standard-issue NFL on Sunday and MLB LDS series all weekend long. More updates here over the weekend.

-- D.S.



Thursday, October 04, 2012

10/04 (Wild Card) Quickie

Exhale for a minute (or a day).

There will be no frantic playoff-before-a-playoff. There will only be lead-up to MLB's first one-game "Wild Card" round, featuring the surging Braves and defending-champ Cards in the NL and the stumbling defending AL champs from Texas against the entirely unpredictable Orioles.

What makes the NL game so compelling is that there is a good argument to be made that the team that comes out of the NL Wild Card should be considered the favorite to win the pennant -- both teams are that hot right now.

What makes the AL game so compelling is that the defending league champs -- and prohibitive favorites to repeat from roughly March through August -- have all the pressure in the world, while the Orioles are playing with house money (as they have been since, oh, May).

We can disagree about the fairness of the format. We can argue whether the Rangers (or Cardinals) deserve a spot in the playoff field. But, as with the original introduction of the original Wild Card slot, it makes for compelling games that are as must-see as baseball gets.

For better or worse, it is like fast-forwarding to Game 7.

More:

The A's win the AL West: The most improbable division champ in recent MLB history? If you look at the preseason expectations, the roster, the payroll, the state of the team back in June (or, say, 10 days ago) or any number of other factors: Absolutely.

There is a reason that (outside of Texas) we are having a kind of national love-fest over these A's: They ARE what is awesome about baseball, as Peter Gammons said last night and Tom Verducci echoed this morning. And, as much as anything, they give hope to fans of every other team that might be sitting at home right now, wondering how they fell short this year.

Miguel Cabrera wins the Triple Crown: I'm all for this history-making and the novelty -- again, no fan under the age of 50 has any recollection of this happening before. Is "RBI" an out-dated vanity stat to care about? Absolutely. Does that diminish the milestone? Absolutely not. Despite the fact that Cabrera is (arguably) not as valuable as, say, Mike Trout (or even Justin Verlander on his own team), it's an incredibly fun accomplishment to have happen this season.

NBA Flopping Policy: If the NBA thinks fines will change player habits -- or the advantage that comes from getting opposing players in foul trouble or getting easy points at the free-throw line -- they are mistaken. This feels like a superficial move to speak to some half-hearted "outrage" by some folks in the NBA media about flopping. Fans don't seem to care. Players use it as a standard technique. It hardly degrades the integrity of the game. (Here's a strategy: Train your refs to not fall for it and/or give each coach one "flop challenge" to let refs go to the replay to judge a flop, with a technical foul assessed if they judge a move to be a bonafide flop.)

College Hoops: An interesting day today -- the "Harrison Twins" (5-star siblings) are going to pick a school to attend together, deciding between Kentucky and Maryland, but really it is about Nike vs. Under Armour.

Typically, Kentucky has been racking up the talent through a very efficient system of "Play for us for one year, compete for (or win) a title, then go to the NBA with our blessing and training," but there is one clear counter to that: "Why be just another anonymous cog for Kentucky when you can be a star with us?" And Under Armour has the cachet to pull that off -- it happened last year in football recruiting, when star WR Stefon Diggs picked Maryland (despite Maryland being terrible, with a soul-sucking coach) over Florida (which is, along with Alabama, as close to a football analogue to Kentucky as you'll find). I'm predicting the twins pick Maryland, and it's a new battle line drawn between Nike and UA.

NFL: Doesn't seem like much of a suspension if the NFL is willing to let Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis and Joe Vitt attend games. Wonder if the NFL would be making the same decision if the Saints were 4-0 versus 0-4.

Sports x Politics: My favorite quip came from the WSJ's Jason Gay: "Nobody's going to remember a darn thing from tonight, other than Miguel Cabrera's Triple Crown. That will live forever."

-- D.S.

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

10/03 (Game 162, Take 2) Quickie

There is a debate all good Americans should be wrapped up in tonight:

Sanchez or Tebow?

On the final day of baseball’s regular season, are we better off now than we were a year ago?


If you’ll recall, last year’s “Game 162” took its place next to “Game 6” as one of the most memorable single days in recent baseball history -- almost certainly the most exciting day of regular-season baseball in the game’s long history.

“Game 162, v.2012” has a slightly different vibe. Last year was about the dramatic conclusions of epic collapses by the Braves and, to great schadenfreude over (not to mention the seeming institutional collapse of), the Red Sox.

This year is about affirmation: Playoff places are secure; the new uncertainty is whether teams are headed to the LDS round or the entirely unpredictable one-game Wild Card.

The upstart A’s and quasi-dynastic Rangers are playing today for a division title or -- more specifically -- avoiding playing in the Wild Card. It isn’t quite the same as “Lose today and you’re out,” but adds a new and more intriguing level of pressure.

The magical Orioles are scoreboard-watching: If the Yankees beat the Red Sox, Baltimore will travel to the loser of the A’s-Rangers game for the Wild Card. If the Yankees lose and the Orioles win, the AL East -- and, again, who goes to the Wild Card -- will be decided in a one-game playoff on Thursday in Baltimore.

It is a new dynamic: Competing to avoid having to play a toss-up “one-and-done” game that, at best, drains your best pitching and emotional energy heading into a best-of-five Divisional series and, at worst, ends your season as abruptly as we have ever seen in the sport.

In the absence of the Wild Card game, the Yankees are phoning it in today, knowing they are set for the ALDS. (Instead, we have the unlikely outcome of Raul Ibanez as New York’s latest October hero.)

The Wild Card may remain a contentious debate, but across the spectrum of baseball politics, we can agree that anything that makes the Yankees sweat is good for the nation.

Today’s Games to Watch:
3:35 ET: Rangers at A’s
7:05 ET: Red Sox at Yankees (ESPN)
7:10 ET: Orioles at Rays (ESPN2)

Today's Best of Sports on Earth: Mike Tanier on the NFL at the quarter-turn, including his league-wide power rankings (topped by the Texans) and awards (Ryan, Watt... Kolb?!)

Adam Greenberg Watch: Greenberg’s K in his high-profile appearance last night was fitting -- he was only guaranteed a second chance at a Major League at-bat, nothing more. Once in the batter’s box, he was baffled by R.A. Dickey (no shame there). Greenberg might have side-stepped baseball’s meritocratic process to get back up to The Show, but there is no avoiding it against Cy-level pitching. Hopefully, the experience gives Greenberg a new and welcome sense of closure.

Miguel Cabrera vs. the Triple Crown: AL MVP debate aside, it is thrilling to be on the cusp of seeing something we haven’t since 1967 -- no fan under the age of 50 has any recollection of watching a player put together a Triple Crown season. That the pre-eminent value of RBIs as a vanity statistic has been largely debunked is beside the point, although it would be fun if someone would create a New Triple Crown, featuring HR, OPS and WAR.

Orioles magic, cont’d: As if you needed any more evidence that Baltimore is putting together one of Those Seasons, last night’s win might be the most unlikely yet -- Tampa’s James Shields put together one of the most dominant pitching performances of the season (arguably in Rays franchise history), and yet a single Chris Davis monster shot gave Baltimore the W. It is unquantifiable, but we are about to find out if “sheer self-belief” is enough to win a championship.

Penn State Scandal: As long as Mike McQueary is filing a defamation suit against Penn State, is he planning to donate the entire salary he collected while a Paterno assistant for the decade following the shower incident? He didn’t seem to mind sporting the Penn State colors while he put his nascent coaching career ahead of the welfare of Jerry Sandusky’s victims.

NFL: If we’re being honest, a healthy Santonio Holmes wasn’t exactly going to solve the Jets’ larger problems on offense. It doesn’t help, but a depleted roster of receivers sets the stage for a running-heavy “Jetbone” offense under Tebow. (Don’t laugh: It worked for the Broncos last year.)

Lolo Jones’ misstep: Jones had no idea Eric LeGrand was a quadriplegic when she trash-talked him after he playfully tweeted her that he wanted to race. LeGrand didn’t take it personally, and it’s hard to believe so many people are giving her grief. Should Jones know of LeGrand and his story? Probably, if only because it is one of the most inspiring sports stories of the past decade. But can you hold it against her if she didn’t?

CFB: Looking ahead to Ohio State-TCU in 2018 and 2019. On the one hand, Ohio State will regret signing a series with TCU, because I think TCU is going to sweep the Buckeyes. On the other hand, in a “four-team playoff” world, where a selection committee picks the field, teams in the small cadre of contenders on the bubble will get extra credit for tough scheduling, even if they don’t win the game. In other words, an 11-2 Ohio State team that wins the Big Ten but loses to TCU will get more favorable treatment from the Selection Committee than an ACC champ that went 12-1 with no tough non-conference games to point to. (By the way: 2018 and 2019? Urban Meyer will be long gone.)

In case you missed last night’s “30 For 30” premiere, “Broke,” about pro athletes burning through their money, the lesson is simple, whether you are an athlete or not: Be sensible about your money, and if you can’t, put in some protections to save you from yourself.

Stadia: More teams should follow the Mariners’ strategy and move outfield fences in.

Last thing: Happy anniversary to Mrs. Quickie. Our wedding eight years ago today set us down a path for the three beautiful kids we have today -- not to mention cemented my status as a die-hard Florida Gators fan.

-- D.S.

Tuesday, October 02, 2012

10/02 (Romo! Nats! Kobe!) Quickie

"It's just going to suck for a few days now, obviously." -- Tony Romo

Aside from Romo’s lament -- and he’s not wrong -- let’s flip the traditional “power rankings” on its head and think about the “Sucks to Be You” rankings at the NFL quarter-turn. No unbeaten (and loving it!) Houston Texans or feel-good Arizona Cardinals here. Just Romo-like disappointment:

1. Saints (0-4). The NFL story of the year.
2. Chiefs (1-3). Weren’t they supposed to win the worst division in football?
3. Panthers (1-3). It’s not Cam’s fault. But it’s his face on the front.
4. Steelers (1-2). Feel that whoosh? It’s the window of contention closing.
5 (tie). Jets & Giants (both 2-2). But only one team feels in control of its future.

MLB Playoff Races:
A’s into playoffs: Along with Baltimore and D.C., the best team story of the year.
Nats clinch N.L. East: Over/under on Nats division titles over next 5 years: 4.
Tigers win AL Central: Not a reason to vote Miguel Cabrera AL MVP.

With two games to go, the big storyline: Can Oakland catch Texas in the AL West, either forcing a debilitating one-game playoff to see who goes into the one-game playoff or pushing the defending AL champs into the unpredictable Wild Card round against (presumably) unpredictable Baltimore? And can Baltimore do the same thing to the Yankees in the AL East? (And can you imagine a Yankees-Rangers one-game Wild Card playoff?)

Today’s Must-Read from Sports on Earth: Posnanski on the Nats. (Money quote: “I would say even with the amazing Orioles run and even with the extraordinary drive of the Oakland A’s, the Nationals are the story of the 2012 regular season.”)

NFL: More fun with Jay Cutler. After the Bears QB ignored Chicago offensive coordinator Mike Tice in front of a national-TV audience, USA TODAY Sports’ Chris Chase had this reaction: “Tice looked like a guy getting shot down in a bar. He swoops in and his target shuts it down immediately. The coach's pink-brimmed hat and hipster glasses only added to the hilarity.”

NBA Media Day: “On its face, it’s the best talent I’ve been around.” NBA Media Day is typically a mix of awkward “picture day” in elementary school and banalities about improvement that every team can get away with. But Kobe’s quote is notable for two reasons: (1) He has been on some pretty good teams, and (2) he’s right. Kobe’s most admirable quality is his demand that every season be judged “Championship or Failure.” Yesterday’s stake in the ground lets his new (ringless) teammates know what the expectations are.

Linsanity continues: The answer to the question “Why did the Knicks let Jeremy Lin go?” is pretty simple: Money. Knicks GM Glen Grunwald: “Basically, it comes down to the fact that Houston made a commitment to him that we weren't prepared to make.” In the absence of winning a championship the Knicks have no shot of winning, dumping Lin remains the franchise’s signature move of the post-Isiah era.

Meanwhile: How can you not love the Nuggets canary-yellow alternate jerseys? From the Wizards’ reboot a year ago to Northwestern’s new Under Armour-designed football uniform, the horizontal stripe is totally in.

Sports x Politics, Part 1: “Well, I think so you always have to put country first.” (Jets owner Woody Johnson, asked on Bloomberg TV whether it is more important for his team to win or his preferred candidate, Mitt Romney, to win.)

Sports x Politics, Part 2: “America needs a comeback team – Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are that team.” (John Elway, endorsing Mitt Romney last night in Denver. Colorado is one of the few states considered a “toss-up” -- let’s keep an eye on the Broncos’ win percentage in October against the state of Romney in the state tracking polls.)

Heisman Watch: As of now, it’s West Virginia QB Geno Smith in a runaway, in part because Matt Barkley choked early and in part because of Saturday’s signature stat-line. In USA TODAY Sports’ new Heisman straw poll, all but one of the 30+ voters gave Smith the nod. He is the rightful heir to RGIII and the poster guy for the evolution of the Air Raid offense into college football’s mainstream.

Quote of the Day: “I don't think LeBron James would be too happy with this drug-dealer dude using his name on these street bags.” (Upper Darby Police Superintendent Michael Chitwood, via Philly Daily News.) 

Tonight's Best: Adam Greenberg, getting one more Major League at-bat (after his ill-fated first -- and only -- MLB at-bat in 2005, where he was beaned in the head), in the greatest thing the Marlins have done this season.

Best wishes to Chuck Pagano.

-- D.S.

Monday, October 01, 2012

10/1 (NFL Monday) Quickie

Shallow Monday-morning analysis, just like you want it...

*NFL Quarter-Season MVP: Matt Ryan.
*But the best storyline? That the Saints are 0-4.
*Also a lot of fun: That the Cardinals are 4-0.
*Are the Texans the best team in the NFL? Right now? Yes. In 16 weeks? No.
*Surprise of Week 4: The "Refs Return" thing turned out to not be a big deal.
*What's wrong with Cam Newton? Nothing. Seriously, relax, haters.
*Are the Vikings for real? No. I'll still take the under on 8 wins.
*Plenty of games left for... the Eagles to fall apart (and Giants to surge).
*RGIII Mythology, cont'd: His headset was out on the final drive to set up the GW FG.
*RGIII is the NFL's best rookie, but...: That Rams K Zuerlein is damn close.
*If the 2013 NFL Draft was today: I'd take Geno Smith over Matt Barkley.
*I'm in the tank for TT, but what is the downside of the Jets benching Sanchez for Tebow?

MLB: Last year's "Game 162" was just about as thrilling as a single-night of sports gets, but I'm really looking forward to the fun scoreboard-watching over the next three days.

CFB: I'm still ga-ga for Geno Smith's performance. I couldn't care less about "But is WVU really a great team?" because the universal premise is moot: No team is beating Alabama anyway.

Ryder Cup choke: Who's with me in the "Eh, who really cares?" category?

Thoughts with family and friends of Ravens coach Chuck Pagano, who is battling leukemia and is expected to recover enough to get back on the sidelines later this season. We can only hope.

-- D.S.

Sunday, September 30, 2012

This Week's BlogPoll Top 25 Ballot

West Virginia put on enough of a show to zoom into the coveted Top 4, and a smidgen of "What Have You Done For Me Lately?" vaults Oregon over last week's No. 2 Kansas State. FSU drops to No. 5. In the end, let's root for entertaining games, because the season is one long lead-up to Alabama throttling Oregon or FSU or West Virginia or whoever.


Saturday, September 29, 2012

9/29 (CFB Craziness) Quickie

That West Virginia-Baylor game (70-63 final) was the most entertaining regular-season college football game I have ever seen, topping my old favorite Northwestern over Michigan 52-50, which seems plodding by comparison. Geno Smith: My goodness. Happy to let him be the Heisman front-runner until further notice. And can't wait for West Virginia-Texas next weekend.

Friday, September 28, 2012

9/28 (Weekend) Quickie

Last night's NFL game was a preview of the dominant storyline of the upcoming weekend:

NFL refs being showered with affection by fans in every stadium they enter.

The support may be short-lived, but the image is powerful -- I can't remember the last time I saw refs so glowingly cheered (and responding).

I'm sure it made the refs feel good. I'm sure it made the fans feel good. I'm sure it made players and coaches feel good.

And I'm sure it made the NFL feel good that Monday's "Fail Mary" is all but forgotten, a distant memory of "that time we had those replacement refs."

There will be plenty of iffy calls on Sunday -- there always are. But appreciate the momentary and mutual cheerfulness between fans, refs, players and league.

More:

*Stanford loses to Washington: So Stanford isn't as good as we thought (and USC really isn't as good as we thought) and another would-be BCS crasher is out (not that Stanford was getting by Oregon in the Pac-12 anyway). Is this a harbinger of odd outcomes this weekend or did we get the notable result out of the way already?

*CFB Picks: I'll take all ranked (or higher-ranked) teams to win, except I'll take Arizona at home over Oregon State. I'm not picking Texas to lose at Oklahoma State, but -- in a lame hedge -- it wouldn't surprise me. Oh, and I'll take Ohio State over Michigan State -- Urban Meyer is great at beating tertiary rivals (in addition to beating primary and secondary ones regularly, too).

*Ravens beat Browns: Zzz. I mean, we all saw this coming, and I guess that if you're a Browns fan, you're happy you were at least competitive? Then consider that Baltimore was playing its 4th game in 18 days. Anyway, another win for the Ravens and a little hope for the Browns.

*RA Dickey wins 20th: The best player story in baseball this season -- perhaps the best player story in all of sports in 2012. It's going to end with a Cy Young Award for the knuckleballer, and even a Nats fan who loves Gio Gonzalez can agree with that.

*NHL cancels rest of preseason: You knew it was coming. I think they return to work by the time we get to the Winter Classic -- if they were smart, they would make that opening day and have every team participating (not in the open-air stadium, but all wearing throwbacks and playing games).

*NBA to crack down on flopping: Frankly, I'd rather see them crack down on superstar griping about missed calls -- a fine for every faux-shocked face or squeal of indignation. But, yes, flopping is a problem, too. (Fines probably aren't enough -- what if you're nicked 5 times for flopping, you're suspended for a half of a game?)

*Jobs: Manny Acta is out in Cleveland, and if Terry Francona really is a candidate, that would be a great hire. He won't turn them into contenders, but he's an upgrade.

Enjoy your weekend. Updates on Sat and Sun a.m.

-- D.S.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

9/27 (Real Refs Return) Quickie

In the end, the NFL blinked. It doesn't matter if they were already headed toward a resolution with the refs -- done in a few days or a few weeks. The perception is that they buckled in the wake of Monday night.

And perception is what was at the heart of yesterday's end-game: In the unlikeliest scenario, the NFL couldn't deal with the post-"Fail Mary" perception that the game's integrity was eroding/eroded. And so the league made the best of a bad situation it found itself in -- they cut a deal with the refs, probably not as hard-line as they would have wanted, but still hard-line enough. Meanwhile, they cut bait on a replacement-ref situation spinning entirely out of control.

There was a pretty good argument to be made that the NFL couldn't afford to go another week with the fake refs -- the dominant image of Week 4 would have been the persistent jeering within stadiums every time a ref made a call. There is a good case to be made that THAT would have been even worse for the league than the single epically bad call on Monday night -- from one really bad "worst-case" situation to a cascade of nationwide credibility issues that put the entire brand at risk.

NFL owners might be stubborn, but they are not stupid. They weighed the business risk -- and, let's be clear: that's all they weigh -- and realized it was time to get out of this hole now.

As many have already pointed out, the good feelings for the "real" refs will last right up until the first iffy call. And, if history is any guide, there will be plenty. But the state of the NFL is far better today than Tuesday morning.

More:

Tigers lead AL Central again: If you like your postseasons interesting, Detroit is a more interesting team than Chicago -- more likely to dent New York and Texas (and Baltimore?) pitching, more likely to offer intriguing stars like Miguel Cabrera and his near-Triple-Crown season. (That said, I'm not averse to a one-game playoff to decide the AL Central winner.)

The A's are hanging around. Joe Sheehan had a really interesting point in his awesome subscription newsletter yesterday that there is a case to be made that a team like the A's is better off manipulating the new postseason system by optimizing their result in a one-game Wild Card at home, rather than trying to win the division, and -- in the process -- having to play a tie-breaker to win the division, losing that, then having to play a one-game Wild Card, then (even if they win that) having to start an LDS series against a fresh opponent.

The best story in baseball over the season's final week will be the Marlins bringing back Adam Greenberg -- a latter-day Moonlight Graham -- for his 2nd-ever MLB at-bat next Tuesday. His first, of course, ended with the end of his career.

Another Penn State player leaves: The guys who took off before the season started, just after the punishment was handed down, were never going to be as fascinating as the ones who -- NCAA transfer deal still on the table -- leave mid-season when they either chafe at Bill O'Brien's style or just don't like where the program is (or is headed). Remember: Players can leave without NCAA consequence all the way through the start of NEXT season, with immediately eligibility.

Jobs: Smart hire by the Astros to hire Nats 3B coach Bo Porter -- it's hard to know whether the team's success is because of savvy dealmaking, a stocked farm system over the past few years, lucking into Harper and Strasburg, Davey Johnson's managerial style or what. But picking up a hot assistant is a tried-and-true method in sports hiring.

-- D.S.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

9/25 (NFL Refmageddon) Quickie

"One of the great disgraces in NFL history." That's not me. That's not "instant history" hysterics. That is SI's Peter King, dean of NFL writers, succinctly capturing last night's Packers-Seahawks ending that can only be described as the NFL's "Refmageddon" -- just about the worst-case scenario that could have been imagined.

For a quick look at the very best takes on it -- updated throughout the day -- check out Quickish.

It WAS a disgrace. And it did set the (sports) internet on fire. And it does crystallize the entire "replacement refs" situation in the NFL. And it is a massive humiliation for Roger Goodell.

But probably the only question that really matters: Will it change anything?

Will Goodell fold? And what happens when he doesn't and even more fans tune in for next week's games? What happens when he doesn't and the media -- enraged to be reminded that they have no real power -- doubles down on its outrage? What happens when he doesn't and the players all but revolt next week? What happens when he doesn't and nothing happens next week, because it can't possibly get worse than it is this morning?

But what happens if Goodell does fold? I think the Commissioner is way more attuned to that than you might think -- part of a hard-line negotiating stance (one that I don't support, btw) is that you can't fold, even if you hit a worst-case scenario. Folding now sets up Goodell and the NFL owners as a group that will buckle under the toughest pressure for the next labor dispute. Don't think he doesn't understand that.

Goodell should fold. But will he? And what if he doesn't?

Those are the dynamics I'm paying attention to today.

-- D.S.




Monday, September 24, 2012

9/24 (NFL Week 3 Hangover) Quickie

Yes, the replacement refs are not doing a great job and there is no real reason the NFL should let this go on, but I'm with Yahoo's Dan Wetzel that the players' gripes are a bigger spectacle.

Other big storylines from yesterday that I found fascinating:

*Torrey Smith's grief: It is unfathomable that Smith lost his brother earlier in the day, then came to the stadium and put together a brilliant performance that led the Ravens over the hated Pats.

*Saints are 0-3: Including 0-2 at home! Part of it is surely the distractions from the offseason. Part of it is surely missing head coach Sean Payton. But maybe part of it is that they're just not that good.

*Cardinals are 3-0: OK, OK -- we believe. (No, no: We still don't. Come on. Seriously? At least we can all agree that the Eagles were a house of cards.)

*49ers lose to the Vikings: This week's "Just When You Thought You Understood the NFL, You Really Don't" moment, as clear as they come.

*Runner-up: The Titans beating the Lions in a shootout. Jake Locker is the new Matt Stafford?

*And the best team in the NFL after 3 weeks is...: The Falcons?

More to lead off the week:

CFB: The big storyline will be "FSU is back!" but... the weekend's real takeaway is that no one is stopping Oregon and that an Alabama-Oregon national-title match-up feels like a foregone conclusion. (But, without question, a strong -- even dominant -- FSU is good for college football, if bad for my Gators.)

MLB State of the Wild Card Races: Baltimore and Oakland in command of the AL Wild Card, but with 9 or 10 games to play, the Angels don't seem ready to concede. In the NL, the Brewers (2.5 GB) look like they want to make it interesting (but it'll take a collapse by a Braves or Cards).

Golf: Back in February, anyone have Brendt Snedeker as FedEx Cup winner? Anyone?

-- D.S.

This Week's BlogPoll Top 25 Ballot

Alabama stays at No. 1, with Kansas State jumping up to "No. 2 For Now" on the strength of its "Best Win By Any Team This Season" win at Oklahoma.

Rounding out the "If The Season Ended Today And We Had a Playoff" is Florida State (technically its new full name is "Florida State is Back") and Oregon.

West Virginia drops out, mostly because no self-respecting contender should have as much trouble with Maryland as WVU did (at home, no less).

Presuming Kansas State stumbles in a wildly competitive Big 12, no change to the reigning expectation that unbeaten Oregon (and they will stay unbeaten) will edge an unbeaten FSU (and they will stay unbeaten) for the No. 2 spot in the national-title game -- and the chance to lose to Alabama.


Sunday, September 23, 2012

9/23 (CFB Hangover) Quickie

Ranking yesterday's signature wins:

(1) Kansas State, over (at) Oklahoma: Best win of the season by any team. Tough Big 12 schedule remaining, but for now, a "if the season ended now and we had a four-team playoff, they'd be in" team.

(2) Florida State, over Clemson: Jaw-dropping offense. Defense that makes you think that if they ran into a defense like Alabama's or LSU's or a superior offense like Oregon, they would fall short. Still: QB EJ Manuel had the single-best "big game" performance by any single player this season.

(3) Oregon, destroying Arizona: Slow start -- even eyebrow-raising -- turned into a 49-0 rout that has Oregon at the top of the pile of teams vying for "No. 2 behind Alabama" status.

(4) Notre Dame, edging Michigan: It wasn't pretty -- and Michigan clearly isn't anywhere nearly as good as people were thinking they were a month ago -- but Notre Dame needed a win like that over a perceived "good" team. The Irish offense is terrible, but the D is clearly solid.

(5) LSU, escaping Auburn: "Close wins" are hardly a crime -- the Tigers will drop in the polls because September is about style points. But watch them grind through October leading up to their early-November de facto national semifinal playoff game against Alabama. They'll hang in there.

Couple of notes:

*Best detail of the day: Oregon State's Mike Riley diverted his team's travel plans back from UCLA by stopping by In-and-Out Burger for a treat.

*The Big Ten's biggest problem is not that Iowa lost to Central Michigan, which is as big of a symbol of the Big Ten being "down" this season as anything. No, the Big Ten's biggest problem is that its purportedly "best" team -- Ohio State, bowl-eligible or not -- just ain't that good.

*Anyone else surprised at how much trouble West Virginia had with lowly Maryland, especially in Morgantown? The Big 12 is fascinating: Kansas State has the signature win, West Virginia has the glitz (and favorable schedule), Oklahoma is a step behind, Texas is who-knows-what... and TCU is probably going to turn out to be the best team in the league.

*Missouri's loss to Georgia in its SEC opener two weeks ago isn't nearly as representative as the way they got throttled on the road at South Carolina yesterday. Gonna be a rough ride.

*Northwestern: 4-0 and, in a down year for the Big Ten, every reason to think they can finish near the top of the league.

Enjoy your NFL Sunday, particularly you folks in NYC who will get your first-ever taste of NFL Red Zone Channel today.

-- D.S.