Monday, April 02, 2007

Florida vs. Ohio State:
National Championship Live-Comment

Let's get your final pre-game (plus in-game and post-game) analysis of the national title game between Florida and Ohio State.

I've got one final Florida-related post on Deadspin: "What a win would mean for Florida." Be sure to check it out! (It includes a dig at both Joakim Noah AND Duke... something for everyone!)

Want to re-live the Florida-Ohio State live-comment from the football championship game? Here's the link to that post.

Again: I am picking Florida to win (and if they lose, I will be devastated).

41 comments:

Todd said...

Where's the baseball season preview?

Kevin said...

Unfortunately, I do think Florida has the edge. I'd be scared as hell of Conley if I were a Gator fan - all I can remember is Aaron Brooks getting space to drive every possession even though he was Oregon's only player making anything - but I don't think Oden plays more than 25-30 minutes. They really need to increase the foul limit to six - it's just too hard to get two fouls on a guy in the first 10 minutes. If Oden can stay on the court for 35 minutes, it will be close.

One more thing, Dan: Just because Florida beat OSU by 26 earlier does not mean they were 26 points better than the Buckeyes. Florida could have just played one of their best games and OSU played poorly.

redman said...

Ok, before the game starts, I just wanted to state for the record how overblown Florida's stomping of Ohio State is. Yes, Florida kicked the crap out of Ohio State. No, I don't see 26 points of difference between the teams back then and the teams today (though Oden is more experience and Connely is playing inspired ball right now).

However, I have included some info below to deflate (though not debunk) the theory that the beatdown from a couple of months ago is that much of an indicator for tonight's game.

SEE BELOW:

FLORIDA (Selected portions of schedule)

1/31 Vandy W 74-64
2/17 Vandy L 70-83
23 point swing

2/3 Tennessee W 94-78
2/27 Tennessee L 76-86
26 point swing

1/13 South Carolina W 84-50
2/21 South Carolina W
20 point swing


OHIO STATE (selected portions of schedule)

1/9 Wisconsin L 69-72 (not long after Florida loss)
OR
2/25 Wisconsin W 49-48
3/11 Wisconsin W66-49
20 point swing from loss to win
OR
16 point swing from win to win

1/17 Northwestern W 73-41
1/24 Northwestern W 59-50
23 point swing


Now, obviously I left out plenty of rematches where the first outcome did not differ that much from the second game. But the point is that sometimes there is a significant change in the outcome of a game even if the teams involved are virtually the same on paper for both meetings. And as you can see from above, this applies to crappy teams (Northwestern, South Carolina) and good teams (Wisconsin, Tennessee, Vanderbilt). Sometimes good teams play great, sometimes they play horrible (I think you had both happen in the last Florida-Ohio State game). One blowout game from two months ago really isn't that much of an indication for tonight's outcome.

I would apply the same thinking to the BCS championship game. I would venture that 4 out of 5 meetings between Florida and Ohio State would be a close contest. We just happened to get the aberration where Florida smoked Ohio State in the title game. There is no way that Florida was really that much better than Ohio State. But on one night in particular, they were, and of course, that's all that counts.

Now, if Florida beats the snot out of Ohio State again tonight, then you can start to say that Florida owns Ohio State. One game does not make a pattern.

Anyway, just my four million cents.

Troy said...

@redman, actually, if you could go back and watch the game, you would have even more fuel for your argument. As a Gator fan, I was more than happy to let the media spin that game as a total ass-whooping, but in reality it was a tight game blown open by the fact that Oden was hopelessly out of shape and too easily confused (it was fun watching Horford back out to the 3-point line leaving Oden thinking, "great, now what do I do?"). Also, OSU was dreadful (if I remember correctly) from 3-point range, while UF was beyond hot.

No way all of that happens again, especially since OSU looks to be significantly better now than they were in December.

Still, I think UF pulls it out. There are 5 different facets of UF's game, and I think if 3 of them are on, OSU won't be able to do enough for the win. (1) Taurean Green playing controlled, smart basketball. (2) Lee Humphrey (or Taurean Green AND Corey Brewer AND Walter Hodge) being hot from distance. (3) Horford/Richard/(Speights) dominating the inside, getting the easy looks. (4) Joakim being on his game. (5) Brewer/Humphrey/Horford playing tight defense and not letting OSU get any easy looks or uncontested drives to the basket.

Notice I left out any concerns about foul trouble. Billy Donovan is a smart enough coach, and rotates his big men often enough, that we rarely get into dire foul trouble. Famous last words, I know, but I really don't think that will be a problem. (Of course, if you're cynical youll say we get the Dwyane Wade treatment, but I dont think so)

One more concern I have is that I think if Oden gets in foul trouble early we'll be in trouble. OSU is good enough now without him that if he gets the oppurtunity again to rest the entire first half and come in teh 2nd half completely rested, especially in a close game, that could be the difference maker. So here's hoping the refs let everyone play.

I honestly think all the "UF is unbeatable" hype is coming from lazy sportswriters who know setting the game up as a juggernaut vs. an underdog makes for easy pot-game analysis.

That said, I predict a close back-and-forth game the whole way, with UF going on a run sometime in the last 5-7 minutes to make the ending less exciting than the fisrt 30 minutes would have sugested, ultimately winning by 5-7.

I hope.

Troy said...

Sorry if none of that made sense. OSU has looked vulnerable in teh tournament, but not really in their last two game. I can't see how the line is UF by 5.5 and OSU scares the shit out of me. I need to stop trying to think rationally about this game and just go stock up on beer for the sorry-drowning or celebratory-craziness that will follow the game.

DanShanoff.com said...

Great analysis, Redman and Troy. We'll have to see how it all plays out. OSU's defense is going to have to be spectacular. Big Ten Wonk (a terrific blog) has all sorts of good stats-related stuff about the matchup, too.

Luke Bell said...

I love the Big 10, but I despise OSU. However, I hate Florida even more, so I find myself half-heartedly rooting for the Buckeyes. Then again, a co-worker wins over $3,000 if Florida wins.

I wish I had some analysis, but alas, all I have is hopes of a non-Florida title.

JeterIs#1 said...

Everytime every analyst picks a team they lose ala Ohio State in football. I have not heard one person pick Ohio State in this game so that makes me wonder if that trend will continue. Everyone was picking Gtown over Ohio State and they pulled that one off but I don't know if they got this one in them. Oden HAS to play 30-35 minutes for them to have any shot plus Lewis/Butler/Cook have to knock down there 3's or this will be '06 all over again.

jhawkjjm said...

Just make sure that Gabe is in bed when you watch the game. Although it would be funny if his first words were "God Damnit Noah, you fucking pansy ass bastard!"

Be thankful the game is on so late, unfortunately the KU-UCLA game was early enough that my 2 yr old was still awake and in the room. Takes a lot of the fun out of it when you can't yell and scream at the TV.

The heroin sheik said...

section 328 not too shabby. It is ridiculous how many more gator fans there seems to be here in atlanta since we are so close to florida. Will try to post on my dads blackjack throughout the game.

ryan from boston,ma said...

Hopefully the refs are going to call a little looser game and let the teams play.

pv845 said...

Over/Under on CBS showing Noah's dad vs. Noah acting like a complete jackass. I am going with Noah like a jackass.

Johnathan said...

haha noah is winded before the first commercial

The heroin sheik said...

Noah looks beat but green and brewer look pretty good. 2 on 1 with humphrey was sweet. nice steal

Vincent said...

so much for the loose game

pv845 said...

Did anyone see the nice elbow that Noah threw after that OSu make?

The heroin sheik said...

wonder how it looks on tv it is exciting here. Crowd is great. Gators looking strong. Please no injuries. Uf by ten at the half?

The heroin sheik said...

WOW!

Kurt said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kurt said...

story of the game at half time, florida 6/8 from 3 point line, osu 2/11

sobegator said...

looking good so far
will we tire oden out
he is the only reason we r not up by 20

Danielle said...

Ugh. Come on Buckeyes!

The heroin sheik said...

That run of 3's was unreal. It is like hackashaq but twisted. OSU lots of bad shots. Oden is the tits. horford and noah are doing nothing.

Vincent said...

hello? Corey Brewer! dangerous and ruthless. I don't know if this translates into text.. but where I'm from we call those 3's he's throwin' down
"draws". As in: you got caught with your draws down. Draws meaning underpants.

So next time you hit that 3 in your boy's face, shout it out, " Draws!"

kegdoctor said...

Dan,
Joakim Noah IS the next Mateen Cleaves. A great college player that everybody effin hates (myself included) that will just evaporate once next year's NBA season rolls around. I think most people realize this is and have swallowed that truth (for swallow, see also: the comments to your Dead Spin column) because they'd rather let him have his glory tonight in return for never having to see him flailing around an NBA court for the next decade. I. Can't. Wait.

Kurt said...

CALL A FUCKING FOUL ON FLORIDA.

pv845 said...

So is it time to start guessing how long we will have to listen to Dan talk about how great the Florida team is?
I freaking hate the Gators right now. This is a joke.

sobegator said...

unreal on these foul calls

R. Crowe said...

I can't wait to see Noah on Dancing With the Stars 5 years from now.

Kurt said...

unreal on these foul calls sobegator? florida's shot more free throws and OSU has gone inside everytime. how many times does oden have to go straight up with the ball before a foul is called?

Eric said...

The difference in this game was clearly Ohio State's total imability to hit an open 3.

That and Florida's constant ability to hit the big shot. But you got to think the Ohio St. had a real shot, but couldn't sink any shots from outside.

Fooch said...

People claim this team is so great. I certainly won't discredit winning back to back titles, but the 1991 UNLV team would wipe the floor with these Gators.

Jeremy said...

The only player for Ohio State who bothered to show up and play with any urgency is Mr. Stone Face, Greg Oden. I thought OSU was done once the starting lineups were announced with the lack of emotion on Oden's face, but he's been an absolute force. What happened to Ron Lewis' outside shooting? Mike Conley the big time playmaker? Sure he did some stuff in the 2nd half but that's about it. I'll see everyone later....I'm about to be sick.

Danielle said...

I will not read this blog tomorrow. I can't deal with the nauseating Florida talk.

PS: Billy Packer is an idiot.

Yes, I am bitter.

Vincent said...

wow, gator hators..tssk tssk

IkeKrizzule said...

With 1 minute left to go Ohio had made 10% of their 3's, and Florida had made 59% of theirs. That's college basketball, and to take nothing away from Florida they hit their 3's, but if Ohio hit just 3 more (raising their percentage to a still terrible 25%) this would have been anyones game down the stretch.

Also any GM who watched this game and is still thinking of taking Durant over Oden should probably be fired on the spot. He's a once every 10-15 years kind of talent

DrDoom said...

congrats... Now could you have like a sister go to maryland so they can start winning?

Kurt said...

one good thing can come out of this. no more talk of shanoff curses. dan if you make a retarded pick and a team loses, its you're retarded pick, not shanoff curse.

Vincent said...

for the record my final for the game was 82-76. with FL winning. Unfortunately it was against Georgetown.

JeterIs#1 said...

Noah will be a decent pro, I hate his guts but he will be a very good role player. Brewer I think moved up the draft board with his Final Four play, I would put him ahead of Jeff Green and Al Thorton now. Horford probably moved up to the 3rd pick, I can't see a team picking Brandan Wright over him, if they do they are crazy. Oden is #1 and Durant #2. No idea about T. Green. Not a bad player but I don't see him being a starter in the NBA???

DrDoom said...

i don;t see noah as a great pro i see him as a great bench player not as a star so i don;t think he should be a lottery pick.