Thursday, August 02, 2007

Fantasy Football Draft: Ya-Help!

Fantasy Football Watch: It's early in the fantasy pre-season, but tonight is the draft in my Yahoo Sports' sponsored "Bloggers' League." The draft order was just released, and I’m drafting… FIRST OVERALL.

This is a no-brainer: LaDainian Tomlinson.

But then you get that interesting phenomenon with that No. 1 draft position: You have a HUGE wait, then you make back-to-back picks (with more huge waits until the next back-to-back pick).

It’s a 12-team league, so I’m eyeing picks 24/25, 48/49, 72/73 and so on….

But here's how you can help: In the Comments section, give me some underrated and overrated (mostly underrated, please) players to keep an eye on. Any/all positions. Who is poised for a break-out season? Who is undervalued?

Meanwhile, I HAVE to go RB-RB-QB, right? (That second RB and the QB will come back-to-back.) Or, as I suspect, is the emerging trend of split-time RBs going to decrease the value of RBs, and given the wait between my 3rd and 4th picks, I should go for a WR?

Should be fun. And intensely, freakishly, thrillingly public. (J. Childs: "The most public yet of my many humiliations.") Thanks for the help!

-- D.S.

28 comments:

jalpert said...

Depending on who's available for your 2nd and 3rd picks, I'd go with two WR's, so you have the best RB and probably the best two WR's because everyone else is going to snatch up RB's.

The kind of RB you'll get with the 24 and 25th pick won't be that great. I wouldn't worry about QB until your 5th or 6th pick.

Good luck.

Big D said...

I was right last year with my running back predictions, and I'm going out on a limb this season:

LdT is not the #1 overall pick this year. Neither is Larry Johnson. Or Frank Gore.

In fact, I would not at all mock people taking Peyton Manning #1 overall. And for my money, Steven Jackson and Gore both rate higher than LdT for me this year. I just don't like the thought of Norv Turner guiding that ship.

Big D said...

As for the order of the picks, if you do go RB #1 (LdT, I assume), you're looking at some type of Willis McGahee / Cadillac Williams / Jamal Lewis swing around at 24/25. All three serviceable, all three will put up decent numbers behind Tomlinson, but not the type of numbers you'd get by having a Palmer/Brady/Brees type. And if you can pair with an elite receiver, you might corner the market at all three spots.

Jibblescribbits said...

Travis Henry - Broncos underrated
Donovan McNabb QB underrated

I know Calling McNabb underrated is kind of strange, but in FF he never gets the attention he deserves because he has been hurt late in the season so people forget about him.

But I get him on my roster every year and he always has monster numbers, he's a good pick, and look for that suprise QB on the waiver wire through the year for the inevitable injury.

futurelegendvinceyoung said...

I like Big D's suggestion of going after one of the QBs after Manning if you take LdT. Also do not forget to get Michael Turner later in the draft and if your team is set I would even reach for Turner earlier then normal.

Stephen said...

I think that you should go RB/WR/RB. By the time that you get into the mid 20's most of top QB's and RB's are going to be gone. But by the time that you get to your next picks in the 40's, most of the top WR's will be gone.

I agree with jibble on Travis Henry and would add Jamal Lewis at the 24/5 spot. If you could go LT, Steve Smith, Henry/Lewis in the first 3 pick I would count that as a good start. Maybe look for a QB like Brees or McNabb, if they are there or if they are gone go for someone like Romo/Bulger at the 4th pick.

But hell, it is mostly luck on how these guys are going to perform or if they remain injured free...

Good Luck...

ToddTheJackass said...

After picking LDT overall (you have to Dan)... I'd probably go for 2 WRs next. There's a good article on Insider that actually likes the strategy of going RB, then WR, WR. Link

At 24/25 I think it's not unreasonable that Torry Holt would be there. He'd be a sweet pickup there, as would Chad Johnson if still available. Brady/Brees could be there as well. Would start you off nicely, although you'd definitely have to go RB,WR,WR with the next picks.

Around 48/49 then you'd have to hope Marshawn Lynch or Cadillac would be there. I like Lynch a lot, but if Caddy is healthy, he could be huge too. I'm a huge Andre Johnson fan if he's around there too in terms of WR. He sort of broke out last year, and now he has an even better QB. I like him more than Hines Ward, Donald Driver, and a few other guys in that range.

RevScottDeMangeMD said...

Depends on what kind of league you are in. In my cousin's league, you don't get any points unless your RB runs for over 100 yards. And TD's of course. So basically, QBs go first in that league. I would never mock anyone for selecting Peyton Manning #1.

Matt T said...

Last year I went RB-WR-WR-QB (Rudi Johnson, Marvin Harrison, Chad Johnson, Donovan) and made it to the championship game. I think I picked 5th or 6th.

Brady might be worth the 2nd or 3rd round pick this year though.

The second tier of RB is not that great anymore with all the split duties so 2 top WR or top WR/QB seems like a better strategy

Sarge said...

I'd be hard-pressed to not take at least one more RB in the 3rd. Fitz/Holt/Wayne should be there at 24...then rock with the best player available. if there's a huge run on RBs, go QB if you must, but you'll be starting someone like LaMont Jordan every week.

flubby said...

I think you should trade down. Send that #1 to flubby.

Little Dutch Boy said...

With your 2nd and 3rd pick, you're best off taking one RB and one WR. The thing is, if you don't have 2 RBs by then, you're in big trouble. Around pick 48, you're looking at a bunch of real mediocre backs. I'd look to take a guy like Ronnie Brown (who Cam Cameron will use a ton) or Brandon Jacobs (having a great summer) as your 2nd pick. Then, you should be able to nab a very good, if not elite receiver for your third pick - Roy Williams will be big again, but Javon Walker could be in for the biggest season if Cutler comes around. You can wait till the 4th/5th to take a QB... at that point, you should be able to get a Kitna or McNabb who won't go off the board as quick, but aren't much of a drop from the big 5 (Manning, Brady, Palmer, Bulger, and Brees).

Richard K. said...

DS,

I won't claim to be the ultimate fantasy expert, but I've had a ton of sucess with quarterbacks. A few years ago I waited until the 12th round to take a QB (Matt Hasselbeck) and he got to his first pro bowl. Last year I waited until the 12th round to take Philip Rivers. Here's my QB theory:

The difference between the #1 QB and the #5 QB might be pretty big, but the drop from #5 to #15 is pretty minimal. Look at the stats from last year if you dont believe me. There are always good QBs to be had in late rounds, but if you take a QB early, you're taking a hit at the other positions that could be massive. Remember that 3 years ago Jake Plummer was a shit QB, but he put up 4000+ yards and 20+ TDs. Not bad for fantasy.

Here's the analogy:

If you take Peyton Manning in round 1 and a RB such as Lendale White in round 10, you're fucked. You'd be better off with Joseph Addai in round 1 and Jon Kitna in round 10.

That being said, here are some guys that finished last season on fire that will be available late:

JP Losman
Jason Campbell
Jay Cutler
Jon Kitna

(yes I'm high on the J's)

I'd stay away from:

Vince Young (No receivers and stats were borderline awful)
Alex Smith (His bandwagon is going to cause someone to over pay for him)

My typical drafting order is RB, RB, WR, WR, RB, WR, (barring someone unexpectedly slipping) and thats in a league starting two quarterbacks. (Last year our league champion had Byron Leftwich and David Carr as his QBs. The guy with Peyton Manning and Marc Bulger was in last place all season.)

If you can swing a top five like LaDanian, Thomas Jones, Chad Johnson, Roy Williams, and DeAngelo Willams, you'd be in great shape.

CMFost said...

Sorry Dan, I am in a league with you so there is no way i am giving you any hints or help.

malcolm said...

I caved last year and took a WR (Terrell Owens) before my QB. Owens put up great number, but I was left with Culpepper and Vick at pivot. Not cool.

This year, I'm trusting the experts: you can find receivers, etc. around the league later on, but if you can't get solid RBs and QBs in the draft, you're screwed, so I'd get them out of the way early.

GuyInTheCorner said...

cmfost-

Same from me. I personally can't believe Big D gave up his secrets to Dan just now.

Big D-

Sup with that?

ToddTheJackass said...

Who's winning the baseball league anyway?

Chaddogg said...

Grossman. Hands down, most underrated guy out there. Guaranteed he will be there around 48/49, and if the reports from camp are true, he's going to be Good Rex much more often.

Why?

Well, the Sex Cannon has some toys - Devin Hester is on offense now, along with Greg Olsen (who's too fast for LB, and too big for LB/CBs to cover, with excellent hands), which means Berrian is going to be open deep again, and Muhammad will have plenty of open looks underneath. Throw in the pounding running style of Benson, and the speed of Garrett Wolfe, and the Bears offense is going to be fun to watch.

So go with Grossman. When he's lighting up the Lions, Vikings, and Packers 6 times during the season, you'll appreciate it.

Jason said...

If for some reason you can't grab Bree/Palmer/Brady go RB RB if you play a flex position.

GuyInTheCorner said...

The Daily Quickie standing look this way:

Commenter (GB)

Rafael
Jen (2.5)
Andy/Lenny (6)
Natsfan (9.5)
GuyInTheCorner (10.5)
Brian in Oxford (19)
Patriots64 (20)
Big D (21)
CmFost (25)
drdoom (29.5)
Dan Mega (46.5)
Daddy Rossee (56.5)

ryan from boston,ma said...

Matt Leinart could pull a Carson Palmer from 2005.

Richard K. said...

If you want some sleeper picks in the mid rounds:

Chester Taylor (Could be this year's Deuce Mcallister or Thomas Jones)

Deion Branch (He'll have better numbers than he did in New England)

Vincent Jackson (Emerged at the end of last year and Rivers needs a WR target)

Brandon Jackson (The favorite to win the starting job in Green Bay)

Richard K. said...

Malcom,

First, having Vick last year wasnt so bad. The guy is a bad QB but a good fantasy asset.

As for Culpepper. He was actually a Free Agent in 3 of my leagues last year. I have no idea why you went with a guy that threw 12 INT's and 6 TDs BEFORE he was injured in the 2005 season.

MPP said...

You don't HAVE to take another RB at the bottom of two/top of three mostly because LT alone is still better on a given week than most guys 1 and 2 together. You could of course get a back here (in a 12 team league, you'll probably be starting to look at guys like Jamal Lewis and Marshawn Lynch), but you could also just pants everyone by taking the highest ranked QB (probably Palmer or Brady) and the best WR (you could be looking at Ocho Cinco, Harrison, Holt, Smith, or Fitz). If your league scoring values runners over WR and QB's, then take another back at bottom of two and go get the best WR you can.

Guys I like this coming year (either under the radar or due for a nice season):
Jerious Norwood
Adrian Peterson (Min)
Berrian and Greg Olson in Chicago
Marshawn Lynch
Deangelo Williams
Drew Bennett
Lamont Jordan
Greg Jennings
Travis Henry
Anthony Gonzalez
Alex Smith (SF)
Vernon Davis
Ced Benson

Kevin said...

Don't try to be a rebel. Go RB-RB-QB, or maybe RB-RB-WR, depending on who's avaliable.

Any chance you can trade down to #3 or so? I don't think LDT puts up numbers like he did last year, though he still has to go #1.

The Commish said...

Didn't want to take the time to read all the comments, but I have to say, the people who say you are hurting if you end up with L. Jordan are crazy. You're going to draft LDT. That's your top 2 RBs right there. You don't have to touch that RB2 spot until late in the draft. The best strategy is to go LDT, WR, WR (assuming 2 top WRs and that both Manning and Palmer are gone, don't reach for Brady or Brees, they aren't as much better than the other QBs as those WRs will be better than what you will be able to get later). Also, I doubt it will happen, but if Gates falls to you at 4 that's a no-brainer. If can't grab two of the top WRs (Harrison, Holt, C. Johnson, T. Owens, R. Wayne or D. Driver (hugely underrated)) you should consider Gates at 3. Depending on how defenses are scored, jump on Baltimore or CHicago with your 4,5 combo. If not, this is when you grab your RB2, by getting both J. Norwood and W. Dunn, or J. Jones and M. Barber, or....you get the picture...Having the corner picks makes you one of 2 people in the draft with the ability to pick up a solid RB situation with two backs in the same backfield.

Lou Pickney said...

I wish I knew more about the scoring specifics -- that can impact things. Ditto for starting positions; any info you can provide about that will be valuable.

If you can get an RB who is a bona fide starting RB, go for it at 24/25. If you can get two of them, it's worth serious consideration. I'd say no to Clinton Portis but yes to Ronnie Brown, that sort of thing.

Odds are you'll have a shot at a good RB and a very good WR or QB. If so, go that route. WR trumps QB at that spot since you can potentially get good value at QB the next time around versus with WR where that tier WR likely won't be there the next time around.

Kevin said...

There's no way I would draft Gates with the first pick in Round 3. Later in that round, maybe, but not that early. And there's no reason to take a defense at the beginning of Round 5 - the difference between defenses isn't great, you can pick up a solid D in the 8-9-10 range and not miss much.