Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Tim Tebow's NFL Potential:
Mel Kiper vs. Bill Belichick

Tim Tebow's NFL potential?

Mel Kiper isn't a fan (at least as a QB.)

Matt Hinton asks "Why not?"

MJD says "That's why."

As for me, I think, at worst, he can have an impact with a coach who is willing to go crazy with the Wildcat: Let your "game manager" QB get you to the 15; let Tebow do the rest. At the very least, how about using him innovatively; he doesn't have to take a lot of snaps to have a big impact (see Florida's 2006 national-title season).

At best, I think Tebow can be an NFL starter; don't underestimate the ability of NFL coaches to turn unpolished passers with big size and mobility into NFL starters. As always, it will totally depend on the context he is drafted into -- coach, team around him, etc.

I stand by my prediction that Bill Belichick will draft Tebow, then unleash him. (I wouldn't be surprised if Belichick made it clear through back-channels -- perhaps Beli BFF Urban Meyer -- that the Pats won't let Tebow slide past them in the 1st round.)

BTW: I find Kiper's gold standard of "pure NFL pocket passer" as Matt Stafford to be laughable. Two words: Rex Grossman. I spent all weekend in Atlanta and Stafford came up a lot. Someone tell me how Stafford isn't the next Grossman -- a strong-armed dummy.

Instead of calling Tebow "the next Eric Crouch" (or "next Frank Wycheck" -- where the "W" stands for "WTF?!"), why not call him the next Donovan McNabb?

-- D.S.

UPDATE: WSJ's Allen Barra on Tebow's bonafides -- if not as an NFL player than as arguably the greatest college football player of all time. BTW, for the commenter who said Tebow didn't stack up to Donovan McNabb statistically, you were right: Tebow is actually superior in all the stats you cited -- yards per attempt, passer rating... let's not even count TDs, TD/INT ratio, yards-per-carry, rushing TDs, etc. As good as McNabb was in college, Tebow is -- statistically -- much better.


LexieKaye said...

Amen, I'm glad someone has finally said it about Tebow!

Gator Nation wants him back for one more year but I can't wait for Tebow to go pro and prove all these naysayers wrong.


Brendan said...

I think the biggest problem why he with Tebow (and why he won't be drafted high) has nothing to do with him: no rookie wage scale. In the NBA teams take on projects EVERY year because they aren't paying them that much and can ditch them in two years. NFL first rounders want huge, long contracts and you could never take a project and waste that much money on him. That is why teams are always looking for guys who fit this mold or that mold, because that is how you get an owner to pony up a few million dollars.

Unknown said...

Why not compare Tebow to McNabb?

1 - McNabb, although not accurate, is substantially more accurate than Tebow.

2 - McNabb is better fit to be a scrambler. Compate his 40 time of 4.45 at SU senior day to Tebow's 4.6.

3 - McNabb has proven to be a team player. Until very recently, he has taken criticism and turned the other cheek. Few players anywhere have taken half the shit Donovan has.

Inversely, lets look at Tebow. While he has been a great leader once he was "the man", how did he react to Chris Leak playing in front of him 3 seasons ago? Wasn't his response, "play me, or I am transferring".

4 - considering above, how would he accept a role as 2nd (or 3rd) pony. With Tebow being the media darling he is, would any right minded coach want to answer repeated questions about "Why aren't you playing our favorite QB, who should be playing TE?"

5 - Your notion Belichek would take him on is ridiculous. Why would he do such a thing? What did the Pat's offense look like last year? Didn't they set a record or 2? How are they doing this year with a QB who hasn't started a game since high school? Hasn't he put up the best numbers of any QB in his division (including Brett Favre)?

6 - More Patriot stuff...there offense is predicated on making precise underneath throws and accurate deep balls to moss. Do either of those sound like Tebow strengths?

There is a difference between players we like and players who will have great success at the NFL level. I recognize this, do you?

Mike.Mariniello said...

Dan, love the blog/articles, but wanted to remind about what you said about Matt Stafford back in April. You refer to him as a "franchise QB" and a "superstar".
"Friday, April 25, 2008
Update: Can I just throw something out there about the Falcons and Matt Ryan? They're picking the wrong Matt! Understanding that Matt Ryan seems overvalued in a weak QB class and that the Falcons will likely be bad enough next year to have a Top 3 pick again, why wouldn't they save their "Franchise QB" chip for the REAL superstar QB named Matt: Georgia's Matt Stafford, who after the 2008 season should be viewed as the Top NFL QB prospect in college football. OK, yes, I'm kind of geeked up for the Draft -- enough that I'm already thinking about '09."

Full disclosure: I am BC gread, so I am a little protective of Matty Ryan.

Unknown said...

additional comments I missed in my initial post:

7 - Running QBs that have had success have done so by being quick and elusive. With the lack of speed (its becoming more and more common for top notch DEs to run a 4.6-4.7 40) I can't see Tebow fitting into this category.

Tebow's success has come by running over D lineman and backers which are about his size and considerably slower. If Tebow takes on Rennie Curran in the hole, he wins that battle half of the time. Now, if he takes on Ray Lewis in the hole...well we might have a funeral the next day.

8 - This leads us back to his arm strength and accuracy. Tebow does not have an NFL arm. Tebow is not even putting up gaudy stats while playing on a superior team. What would he do with a level playing field?

ReedRichards said...

You are one of the few people that gets it, Dan!

The majority are always wrong.. they are all convinced Tebow is the one to bist.. but it is going to be Stafford, McCoy and Bradford that bust, not Tebow.

ReedRichards said...

Tebow has a better 40 time than McNabb too! LOL