Ed Gunther has an interesting post yesterday ("How the BCS Will Die") about the scenario that would/could/should implode the BCS:
To oversimplify his argument, the moment when one BCS league sees its unbeaten team shut out of a title game by others from the "better" leagues. Say, if Cincinnati went undefeated but didn't make the title game because unbeaten Texas and 1-loss Florida were there instead. That snubbed league then lobbies the rest of the group internally for a playoff.
Regulars know that I agree about a BCS implosion scenario, but see it slightly differently: The best chance of seeing the BCS implode is if the SEC gets snubbed, then "secedes" (or, as I have put it "SEC-edes") from the BCS and forms its own "Eff-Off" playoff.
I think it's pretty clear that we were close to that a year ago, when Texas nearly out-pointed Florida for the right to meet Oklahoma in the BCS title game.
I think that if that had happened, Florida would have led the charge for the SEC to get out of the BCS and simply say, "If we have the best team in the country and that's still not good enough to break through the BCS formula, we simply withdraw and will crown our own champ."
As I have argued, it would be difficult -- if not impossible -- for the BCS to crown a "national" champ without the SEC's participation.
In fact, it makes very little competitive sense for the SEC (or Big 12) to participate in the BCS, given that their teams have great potential to be monumentally screwed over (despite qualitative reputational advantages); it makes very little economic sense too, given that the SEC could command billions for an 8-team playoff (an SEC-Big 12 playoff combo would command even more).
There would be no backlash from the NCAA -- remember, the NCAA is not affiliated with the BCS; the BCS is a cabal created by a select group of conferences.
The other leagues might be ticked, but their only recourse would be to come to the table to negotiate their way in to the SEC (or SEC/Big 12) playoff, rather than the other way around. (And if the Big Ten and Pac-10 don't want to be a part of it, they can feel free to opt-out; the backlash would come from their own fans and coaches.)
The problem with the Big East or ACC getting screwed like your average Mountain West or WAC champ is that the Big East and ACC have little competitive juice to stand on; nobody takes them seriously. But the SEC and/or Big 12? Without them, there IS no "national" title to be bestowed.
So if you want to see the end to the BCS, root for the SEC or Big 12 to get screwed out of a national-title spot in favor of a lower-tier BCS league champ with a "better" record.