Sunday, November 12, 2006

CFB Hangover:
Sorting Out the State of the BCS:
OSU-Mich loser, SEC champ, ND/USC winner, Rutgers

New updates below, including the new BCS ranking and the new AP poll.


K-State's utterly amazing win over Texas
was so invigorating in its impact on tilting the BCS – particularly when combined with the rest of the results of the day – that I was up half the night thinking about it.

Here's what we know: The winner of Ohio St-Michigan is in the BCS title game. The rest? Oh boy...

Well, here's who is OUT, thanks to losses this week: Texax, Auburn, Cal, Louisville.

(Please don't tell me that college football doesn't have a playoff system. As I've argued for years, the entire regular season is a virtual "double-elimination" playoff: Lose once and you're in trouble; lose twice and you're out.)

Here are the six teams who are STILL in the BCS title-game conversation:

(1) OSU-MICH LOSER
Need to: Hope that ending a season on 11/18 doesn't cede momentum to the one-loss team that plays more games through 12/02.
Pros: The perception that the OSU-Mich loser is that much better than the No. 3 team; popular (read: human poll) interest in a rematch.
Cons: Michigan has exactly ONE quality win (at Notre Dame); Ohio St's single quality win -- over Texas -- doesn't look so special anymore.

(2) FLORIDA
Need to: Win out
Make-or-break: SEC title game; at Fla St(?)
Pros: BCS ranking; no more Texas
Cons: Have you watched them play? Ugh.
Wild Card: Arkansas must win out (including at LSU) to have ARK enter SEC title game with a BCS ranking between 4-6, for Florida's SEC title game win to have maximum impact.

(3) ARKANSAS
Need to: Win out; USC to lose
Make-or-break: at LSU, SEC title game
Pros: The best team in the SEC.
Cons: Blown out by USC in Week 1
Wild Card: USC must lose again.

(4) USC
Need to: Win out
Make-or-break: Cal, Notre Dame, UCLA
Pros: Strong SOS to finish season.
Cons: Loss was to unranked team
Wild Card: How can you vault them ahead of any of the other 1-loss teams, who lost to teams that were actually ranked?

(5) NOTRE DAME
Need to: Win out
Make-or-break: At USC
Pros: Popularity
Cons: Blowout loss to Michigan
Wild Card: How can you vault them ahead of OSU-Michigan loser?

(6) RUTGERS
Need to: Win out
Make-or-break: at West Virginia
Pros: Cinderella story of the decade.
Cons: Strength of schedule

Needless to say, each of the Survivor Six is hoping for the rest to collect losses. Notre Dame plays at USC, so one of those teams will be KO'ed automatically. Rutgers has to win at West Virginia, which is hellish. Arkansas has to win at LSU, which is hellish. Florida has to play Arkansas, which -- if you've seen how each is playing lately -- is hellish.

So it essentially becomes FOUR teams with a shot:

(1) OSU-Mich loser

(2) SEC champ (presuming only 1 loss)

(3) USC-ND winner (presuming only 1 loss)

(4) Rutgers (presuming unbeaten)

The upshot? While the rest of these contenders with multiple games to play put themselves in position to lose, the Ohio St-Michigan loser can sit back and watch, knowing they don't have to play a tough game -- or any game -- again.

That's the OSU-Mich loser's biggest advantage – but also its biggest disadvantage: If any of the other 5 run the table -- while the OSU-Mich loser sits idle -- a compelling case can be made to put those teams ahead of the OSU-Michigan loser.

But, as we saw yesterday, that's a huge "if."

-- D.S.

Update (1:58 p.m.): AP Top 25 just released, though it doesn't have anything to do with the BCS formula. Florida's No. 3, so obviously they focused on the noun "win" rather than the adjective "ugly." Arkansas was a HUGE winner, jumping from 11 to 5. (Go back and look at where I had them in my Top 25 LAST week.) USC back in the mix from No. 7 to No. 4, but a ridiculously tough gauntlet to run over the next three weeks (Cal, ND, UCLA). Notre Dame went from 9 to 6 and still has to beat USC. Rutgers earned a big jump of 8 spots, but starting so low to begin with, they still only went from No. 15 to No. 7. I'll have them at No. 4 this week. A quick preview of my Top 5:

1. Ohio St
.
2. Michigan

3. Arkansas
4. Rutgers
5. Florida
6. USC
7. Notre Dame
8. Auburn
9. LSU
10. Louisville

Update (8:41 p.m.): The new BCS came out.

Observation No. 1: Did you notice that Rutgers didn't just jump to No. 6 -- they are ranked SECOND by the computers, AHEAD of Ohio St. That's amazing. That helps offset the egregious No. 8 ranking by the coaches and No. 7 ranking by the Harris poll.

Observation No. 2: Florida, sandwiched between No. 3 USC and No. 5 Notre Dame, is kind of screwed. If USC beats Cal next week, then no matter who wins the USC-Notre Dame game the week after, that team will undoubtedly stay ahead of the Gators. Florida needs USC to lose to Cal next week, then beat Notre Dame the week afterward. Tall orders.

(Someone needs to explain to me how a Notre Dame team with only a single decent win -- GA Tech in the season opener... and NOT impressively -- is No. 5? Have you seen ND's schedule? It's a joke. The one decent team they played -- Michigan -- smoked them.)

90 comments:

Benny said...

I called it "Shakedown Saturday". Gators need to win with confidence in the coming weeks. The Ol' Ball coach almost ruined yet another Gator season. I've never been happier about a blocked FG.

With rivalry games, I'm always afraid of a down-and-out FSU team wanting to do everything it can to ruin the Gators season in a couple weeks. Even though I watched the whole Wake Forest blowout just to see the dour reaction on FSU's faces.

rukrusher said...

The only thing I would add is since Rutgers needs USC, Notre Dame, Florida and Arkansas to lose again, the possibility of West Virginia with one loss can pass Michigan/OSU loser just becasue people might not want a rematch. Wisconsin might be able to sneak in and play OSU as well if these teams ahead of RU lose.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

Good rundown, but I'm not sure how Arkansas needs USC to lose any more than Rutgers or Florida do. If USC wins out, they're pretty clearly going to be #2. Florida is the team with the next best shot, then... Arkansas, Rutgers, Notre Dame--in that order?

I'm done with this "we need to win convincingly" crap. Considering the last 4 years of Gator football--and considering what's been going on around the NCAA this year--just winning is more than enough for me. 9-1, man, that's pretty awesome.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

Based on... well, on my gut reactions more than anything:

1, OSU
2, Michigan
3, Rutgers
4, Arkansas
5, USC
6, Florida
7, ND
8, Louisville
9, Wisconsin
10, Wake Forest

Benny said...

Don't forget ND lost at HOME. That lose points with me. You can't lose at home. It's your home!

Benny said...

Finally, I'm just glad the Gators won. They got the Spurrier monkey off their back. If SC would have won, they would have talked about UF not being the same since Spurrier left until they played again next season.

Urban Meyer has to be as happy as anyone about that.

ChrTh said...

BTW, I want to state for the record that if Rutgers makes it to the National Championship game, I will be rooting for them. Yes, even if against my beloved tOSU Buckeyes.

Why?

Because I'm a College Football Fan above all else, and a Rutgers National Championship would probably be the greatest thing ever.

Anonymous said...

so how many blocked kicks does florida need to win a game?

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

... hey, has anybody seen lenny lately?

Heh heh heh...

Big D said...

Although I agree with just about everything that is writeen here, Why isn't Boise St. in anyone's Top 10?

I understand they're not in a BCS conference, and they've had a creampuff schedule. But creampuff schedules haven't been a major obstacle in the past for some teams.

The fact is, they're undefeated at 10-0, and deserve at least a mention of a BCS game. Maybe not a title shot, but no reason to be shut out of the BCS free-for-all entirely.

Jason said...

Michigan's win over Wisconsin wasn't a quality win?

Anonymous said...

chrth, you can't say "my beloved" if you root against "your team" in any game.

My eyes are bleeding right now. Your two favorite teams every week should be OSU and whoever is playing Michigan, in that order.

Rutgers is a nice story (I lived in Jersey for 10 yrs, and remember when Rutgers's claim to fame was cutting the heads off of kittens and puppies and seeing if they could reconnect them to the other's bodies--according to the star ledger they did for a few minutes of success)

There's no way this is an issue since the only scarlet heading to Glendale wears grey pants.

TF said...

3, yes it's a crappy way to win. Yes, I needed a defibulator next to me on that final South Carolina drive. Yes, Jarvis Moss is now my favorite Gator. Yes, we played like crap, but as Lou Holtz said when he came to my high school to speak. "Good teams find ways to win bad games"

I'll take the "W" and move on.

Joe (Dayton)

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

Oh, and - not to suggest that this means something, but rather to win the argument in which some tOSU fan claimed that the 'eyes don't run up the score -

Michigan and Ohio State were beating up on the lower middle of the Big Ten at a very similar pace yesterday, matching score for score. 7-0, 14-0, 21-3, all those scores seemed to be within 5 minutes of each other between those games.

Something changed around the 30's though...

I think my point is more "don't pretend tOSU looks better coming into The Week; 54-10 vs. 34-3 just means Northwestern scored more than a field goal on you" but I also think this is pretty solid material regarding the aforementioned discussion.

ChrTh said...

@maher:

I lived in Jersey for the first 18 years of my life (and then a few summers afterwards). My best friends went to Rutgers. The Giants and Jets play in Jersey and call themselves New York. All anyone knows about Rutgers is that Tony Soprano went there.

The Buckeyes have already won this decade, and they'll have plenty of chances under Jim Tressel to do so again. But this could be Rutgers only chance.

Rutgers deserves it. Jersey deserves it.

Go Scarlet Knights!

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

Um, Big D -

because they're not good.

I would take, let's see... Indiana over Boise State, best 3 out of 5. For any money, for my car, for my impending degree.

Nevertheless, if they manage to pull out a couple more against "[this week's] State," they'll be in the Top 12. Auburn and Cal might even drop far enough (I doubt it, but maybe?) for them to join the Top Dozen this very week. If they don't suck it up big time for the full 60 minutes ("quality win," as we like to say, over SJSU last night, by the way!) in any remaining game, they will be BCS-bowling for huge BCS dollars.

And I, for one, think that it's a disgusting travesty. I like everyone else a little more now that you point out this "snub."

ChrTh said...

BTW, Dan, I know we mostly care about the BCS, but not a single mention of what Wake did last night? That was downright historic!

Joe (Livonia, MI) said...

I just really can't believe that there would be any kind of groundswell of support for a UM/OSU rematch outside of the Midwest. Why should a team get a second crack at a team? Plus, what was impressive about a 8 point win against Ball State?

IMO, a one-loss USC or Florida has the inside track to being the "other" team in the BCS championship game.

Phil O'Konski said...

I have a huge problem with the OSU-Mich loser. This is a top 3 if not the TOP rivalry in football. And a rematch BCS champ between the two would:
a) Lessen the value of the rivalry
b) Lessen the value of this game (truly a national semi-final)
c) Lessen the rest of the games.

If any of the teams win out, the team that holds their destiny in their hands is truly USC.

However, how can you NOT root Rutgers to stick the preverbial finger at the BCS. PLUS, for the billions...and billions...of dollars that Fox paid for the BCS, I think it is only fitting that a network that ignores the College Football playoff, the regular season, get stuck with a non-sexy championship game in the global eyes as OSU-Rutgers.

Undefeated with no college championship...college football lives here all the time!

Joe (Livonia, MI) said...

Re: Rutgers. I don't know if just going undefeated is good enough. If it were, how come no one is up in arms about Boise State?

But I think Rutgers will lose to WVU anyways, so this point will be moot by next Sunday.

ChrTh said...

I don't know if just going undefeated is good enough. If it were, how come no one is up in arms about Boise State?


Because both WVU and Louisville are going to finish as Top 25 teams, giving Rutgers two quality wins if they go undefeated.

Boise State won't be able to say the same thing.

TF said...

Boise, assuming they win out, will be in the Fiesta Bowl v. the Big 12 winner.

Joe (Dayton)

Big D said...

@ john in ann arbor:

Like I said - Boise St. is not any type of threat to implode the BCS. But they are undefeated albeit against a horrible, horrible schedule.

Of course, Rutgers' schedule didn't really have anybody on it until this week, and they were getting a groundswell of man-love before they staged the "Greatest College Football Win of All-Time".

Like I said, I'm not pimping Boise St. for a title shot, even if they stay undefeated. Remember Utah a couple years back, getting stuck in the Fiesta bowl against a completely unworthy Pitt team (the USC/Oklahoma/Auburn debacle year)?

Utah finished that year 12-0. Pitt was 8-4. Seems a little lopsided, no?

Of course, at least Utah got a shot in a BCS game. And they proved they belonged there by obliterating Pitt. Boise St. at least deserves that shot, so that they can get the national recognition and money that comes along with a BCS game, and maybe build their program into the type of perrennial contender that will always be in the BCS discussion. I'd much rather see a team like Boise St. in a BCS game than some underachiever who had three+ losses against a tougher schedule and got an automatic bid as a reward for their lack of success.

Now, with all of that said... Hail to the Victors, and Go Big Blue...

Steve said...

How about if Boise St. wins out, put them in the Rose Bowl against the Pac-10 champion and if Boise St. wins that game they get to join the Pac-10. Now that would be historically awesome.

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

Big D -

I didn't remember that about Pitt. Interesting, at least.
Also, I didn't think Louisville, West Virginia, or Rutgers deserved the pimping they got. In fact, I vocally didn't think so. So if you're comparing the two treatments, I'm with you - don't get too excited about teams that haven't done anything, I say.
I still think Boise State probably isn't very good at all. But your first post still doesn't make sense, I think - they'll absolutely get their chance to play in some BCS game; they're totally in control of that right now. Then they can say something. We'll see what it is.



Everyone - in my random browsing of the Worldwide Leader, I found this photo with this caption. I was unable to watch this game, so I don't know how this all worked, but... did this really happen?
What in the blue fuck are the review guys doing up in that room? Are Oregon's uniforms so ugly they make accurate video reviews impossible? There have been more ridiculous outcomes of reviewed plays in Oregon games this season than there should be in a decade.

Joe (Livonia, MI) said...

Boise St can absolutely have fun in their who cares BCS bowl against Texas or whomever, and no one but college football diehards will watch it. They are allowed that much, sure.

Rutgers, meanwhile, can enjoy the Orange Bowl of the century against the Georgia Tech/Wake Forest winner.

Hisjazziness said...

The problem with a rematch of OSU-Mich is the following:

We would have no idea how good each of those teams is today outside of the Big Ten vacuum. Since OSU beat Texas in week 2 and Mich beat the domers in week 3, there haven't been any challenges for either team.

For either of those teams to take a place in history (if they are the best team in the land), it is important that they face USC or a SEC team to measure the greatness of OSU/Mich. Otherwise, its all relative and to me doesn't mean a thing, but maybe I'm the only one.

ChrTh said...

Where the NFL Tailgate?!?

sobegator said...

FSUCKS

Anonymous said...

espn.com's poll had 150k ppl voting in it and by a 2:1 margin people wanted a rematch if the OSU/UM game was close next week.

jersey didn't give two shits (nor does most of the east coast, including NYC/BOS) about CFB. Rutgers is a cute story, but the reason it is a cute story is no one CARES about COLLEGE FOOTBALL in the east. I grew up in Jersey and didn't care about CFB until I moved to Ohio. All people care about in Jersey is the NFL and driving their Trans-Am's...oh and going to the mall.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

Otherwise, its all relative

That is a great articulation of the problem with an OSU/Mich rematch. And also of why Utah-Pitt was so unfulfilling. And of why Big East Champ vs. ACC Champ wouldn't stop the Big Least proponents.

Thank you, your jazziness.

ChrTh said...

@maher,

If caring about football is so important to you, why don't you root for an SEC, Big XII or Florida team?

I'm beginning to suspect maher is a UM fan trying to make tOSU fans look bad.

ndyanksfan05 said...

If the OSU-Mich game is a rematch it favors the team that loses next week - it doesn't seem very realistic or fair to expect a college team to beat the same top five team twice in such a short span...

Matt T said...

I haven't been able to watch Ark on tv this year, due to being at the Georgia games, but after watching them last night...Wow.

If they win out, I think they deserve a shot, they will have beaten Auburn, UT, LSU, and Florida. If anything McFadden for Heisman needs to get going, he was playing QB last night in the Redzone.

What a great weekend.

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

Wow, this is a fantastic SportsNation poll. It's from a couple days ago, so it features a slight impossibility involving Texas (I've been asking all year why everyone thought a team that won last year due entirely to their now-NFL QB was so great... thank god KSU is in the Big XII to expose some bullshit teams every once in a while), but it's just the most beautiful geographically polarized thing ever. (Refresh it once or twice to get the colors to work.)

Wonder what it'll look like next Sunday...

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

ndyanks -

That's patently absurd.

I'm not necessarily a proponent of the rematch, but, if I remember anything from Statistics at all, this is a situation in which probabilities are completely independent. If a team is "better," they should have a better chance of beating the other team the first time, and they should have the same better chance the second time.

And it seems perfectly realistic and fair to expect the National Champions to beat any other team in the country on neutral ground in January. That's the whole thing.


By the way, this doesn't sound anything like the time you said, 2 games into the ALDS, that it wasn't fair for the "best team in baseball" to be subjected to a 5-game series, in which an inferior team could beat them by means of a fluke.


So ok, before I'm branded a Rematch Apologist - I don't want a rematch. If Michigan wins next week, I would love to see the Wolverines shut up and shut down the SEC in January (here's looking at you, Gators). I know those apologists won't ever give up their rhetoric, but it would feel great, and at least nobody could say the Champs just proved they were the best Big Ten team.
If Michigan loses next week, you might catch me suggesting that Michigan could win in, say, Ann Arbor. But there would be no Rubber Match in February, so the whole thing would seem so pointless, win or lose - The Game is what it is, and this year, it's in Columbus. So, whatever.
Anyway, if not the National Championship, I think it could be great fun to watch the Wolverines go back to the Rose Bowl and beat the snot out of USC, to make up for the debacle I observed last time I was in Pasadena. And it might back up some statements I've made about the Pac-10.


Oh, and if anybody was wondering, the bold AP voter who decided to send one of those first-place votes UM's way: Joe Giglio, of the Raleigh News & Observer.

I'm just glad it wasn't Angelique, that would have been too much (especially after that pasting tOSU put on Northwestern, ho, ho, chortle...).

The heroin sheik said...

Phil says that a rematch for a national championship would lessen the value of the rivalry. That is a load of crap. twice while the ol ball coach was at florida we had a rematch in a bowl game with the semenholes. The fifth quarter in the french quarter and our national championship. Although I am old school and view Georgia to be our biggest and most hated rival, the FSU game has become a bigger rivalry because if being an instate rivalry. There was nothing sweeter than beating the living shit out of FSU for our natl title. Talk about bragging rights forever. Until FSU beats us for a natl title we will be able to talk all the trash we want. I am curious if there has ever been another instance of a rivalry rematch for a championship in football.

As for my top ten it is like this.

1/2 OSU/UM
3. The new jersey state university
4. UF only because they didn't lose. Sure it was ugly but a win is a win especially when everone around you were dropping like flies.
5.Our Kansas Btw didnt the gators beat them in the sec title game the year we won our championship. I will keep saying this until I am proved otherwise. IT is the the gators destiny to win the title this year.
6. USC
7. The drunken micks
8. Wake. It might be a down year for FSU but that was pretty impressive to shut them out at home.
9. I would put texas herebut without their qb just tick a fork in em. Instead I will have to put the toothless wonders of the new river gorge here.
10.LSU They have had some tough losses but they are a lot better than their record suggests. Well That and I named a sandwich after them at my work called the bayou bengal. It is cajun chicken, onion straws, bacon, bbq sauce, and cheddar cheese. I work at a cajun restaurant so go figure.

In case anyone cares today was jemelle hills last day writing for the orlando sentinel. Thank god I hate that bitch. Now I am going to have to boycott the worldwide leader because I hate her that much. I just hate how she has to bring race into everything she writes. Good riddance.

Anonymous said...

How about 1 LOSS WISCONSIN? Surely they are better than 2 LOSS LSU? Where's the love?

Andy said...

Arkansas loses to LSU...
Florida loses to Arkansas...
ND beats USC...

And bold prediction, Michigan clobbers Ohio State. Troy Smith stunk shit up against every good defense he faced this season so far (read: Penn State), and he hasn't faced one as good as Michigan's, or really even close. The Buckeyes are going down. Be prepared for the real possibility of an ND/Michigan title game rematch.

Steve said...

The coaches poll is so stupid it defies belief. Rutgers beats Louisville who beats West Virginia so they put West Virginia highest! Unbelievable. They need to blow the coaches poll up more than the BCS system.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

Tell me you don't actually have Auburn there. I'm not seeing things right, yes? Please?

Joe (Livonia, MI) said...

I see Auburn at 8th, too, Troy. WTF?

Brigadier Pudding said...

a team that TWICE gets destroyed AT HOME should never get a top 10 vote. please, dan.

and there's no mention of boise because they doesn't deserve to play in a BCS bowl. in case you missed it, they almost lost to san jose st. last night.

Jim said...

What happened to your promise to vote Rutgers #2, or at worst #3?

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

Right now I am a huge fan of California and whoever jumps out to the early lead in teh OSU-Michigan game. Go Gators.

Steve said...

Anybody else think that Bill Belichik seems like a dick? He could be happy Mangini is succeeding instead he seems to hate him for whatever reason. Plus the whole sleeping with someone else's wife thing. Man, I'm glad he's in Boston and not say Fort Wayne.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

Man, I'm glad he's in Boston and not say Fort Wayne.

I don't know, as a Gator fan I can say there's something about an asshole when he's your asshole. There's something about championships that can make you love even the biggest of jackasses.

Jason (East Lansing) said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Jason (East Lansing) said...

USC is ALREADY number 3? It's thiers to lose it would seem.

ChrTh said...

I knew the PCs would love Rutgers.

Arkansas should be able to move past them though since they'll have to play LSU and Florida, while Rutgers only has West Virginia.

USC probably has the toughest remaining schedule, ao they'll earn that BCS bid if they win out.

Boise State is now in the magical 12th position.

ChrTh said...

Anyone else notice that the Harris Poll was the only poll smart enough to move Rutgers over West Virginia?

Anonymous said...

wow the computers.

Anonymous said...

isn't it funny that the bcs has the top 10 more right than either of the human polls?

but we all still hate it, myself included.

Steve said...

chrth: um yes a few hours ago

Steve said...
The coaches poll is so stupid it defies belief. Rutgers beats Louisville who beats West Virginia so they put West Virginia highest! Unbelievable. They need to blow the coaches poll up more than the BCS system.

ChrTh said...

@steve,

I wasn't talking about the coaches', I was talking about the Harris and giving them credit. Your post was strictly about the coaches'.

Joe (Livonia, MI) said...

Well Maher, I wouldn't exactly call Notre Dame at #5 "right".

TF said...

Imagine this:

Florida, USC, Rutgers and Arkansas lose.

ND wins out.

Michigan loses by 10+ to Ohio State.

Do we get ND/Ohio State, and the state of Michigan secede from the Union.

Oh man, Imagine that shot to the BCS. It would be worse than me taking that 1st punch from Mike Tyson.

Signed,

Little Mac

Joe(Dayton)

ndyanksfan05 said...

Yeh ND is 9-1 and lost to the number 2 team in the country as their only loss - they shoulda had that loss to the number 1 team...they suck.

Why so much hate when every team in the top ten has had close calls against not very good teams, yet somehow the ones that ND had are counted more...explain that to me.

Kevin said...

Arkansas over SC, Dan? They gave up 50 to the Trojans at home!! Or do the early games mean nothing?

TF said...

3 Reasons:

1) They needed the other teams to melt down to come back.

2) They were beat like all hell at home to Michigan.

3) Who has ND beaten this year? schizophrenic Georgia Tech and a very average Penn State?

Compare that to the other 1 loss teams ranked wins:
USC (Arkansas and Nebraska)
Florida: (LSU and Tennesee)
Arkansas: (Auburn and Tennessee)

I am not a ND hater, but I think if Michigan loses to Ohio State and it's between Michigan and Ohio State for the other spot in Glendale, ND's going to have to do a lot of convincing. They really haven't done that yet.

Beat the skit out of USC and you might be sitting a lil better.

Joe (Dayton)

TF said...

Just to note, I don't think Arkansas deserves it either because of their loss to USC.

You're seeing the same type of "ND" talk with Arkansas right now because they were blown out at home.

In this system you can lose. If you're going to do it, do it close, and on the road. If you lose at home make sure it's really close. If you get blown out you're in serious shit.

Sorry ND and Arkansas, it's very hard to let you in the title game unless a lot of upsets happen.

Joe (Dayton)

Andy said...

Dan, your prejudice is shining through again. As I've said multiple times already, Penn State made Troy Smith look shitty, and only two pick-sixes in a minute and a half made the margin of that game respectable for OSU. And there are multiple other bowl-bound teams on their schedule. Hardly murderer's row, but ND's schedule has been stronger than most of the top 10.

Lew said...

Dan,
I'm not going to take the time to read all the 62 comments before I post this, so my apologies if someone else has already said this.

How is OSU's victory over Texas less impressive. Sure, they lost a game they should have won last night, but when you factor in the injury to McCoy last night then the Texas team that lost last night is a completely different one then the one that lost to the Buckeyes. As McCoy matured throughout the season, the Texas team from prior to McCoy's injury is a different one that lost to the Buckeyes and would probably win in a rematch.

GuyInTheCorner said...

Breakdown of mistakes in ALL the POLLS

Call me crazy....

But in my mind a ranking says "I think that this team that is ranked X is the Xth best team in the country" or in better terms "I think that the team with the higher ranking would beat the team with the lower ranking if they were to play on a neutral field"

These are a couple things i find strange:

AP and HARRIS and USA TODAY:
1. Rutgers could beat LSU, Wisconsin, Auburn, and Cal
2. Louisville could beat Wisconsin, Auburn, and Cal
3. Wake Forest could beat Auburn and Cal

now here we go.....
Bogus Crap Standings
I'm gonna go poll by poll...
A&H:
Michigan over Ohio St.
Rutgers over THOSE GUYS
Louisville over Arkansas, Wisconsin, Cal, Auburn, LSU
RB:
Rutgers over THOSE GUYS
CM:
Michigan and Rutgers over Ohio St.
Rutgers over THOSE GUYS
Louisville over Arkansas, Wisconsin, Cal, Auburn, LSU
Boise St. over Cal, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU
Cal over Arkansas
KM:
Michigan, Rutgers, USC, Notre Dame, Florida over Ohio St.
Rutgers over THOSE GUYS
Louisville over Wisconsin, Cal, Auburn, LSU
Boise St. over Auburn, LSU
JS:
Michigan and Rutgers over Ohio St.
Rutgers over THOSE GUYS
Louisville over Florida, Arkansas, Cal, Auburn, LSU
PW:
Michigan and Rutgers over Ohio St.
Rutgers over THOSE GUYS
Louisville over USC, Wisconsin, Florida, Arkansas, Cal, LSU

THOSE GUYS are the pack of teams we know are good: Ohio St., Michigan, USC, Florida, Notre Dame, Arkansas, Wisconsin

Anonymous said...

1) Yes, Boise State's schedule is terrible, and yes, Boise State doesn't deserve to be the national championship game, but they did absolutely destroy Oregon State. You know, that team that beat USC. Oh, and San Jose State is 6-3 this year, so that three-point win wasn't that bad.

2) I still can't believe people would put USC or Norte Dame in the championship game over Rutgers. Norte Dame doesn't even belong in the top ten. They've played a joke schedule and got completely outclassed at home by the only good team they've played. Heck, they haven't beaten a really good team in the Charlie Weis era. USC lost to Oregon State. They don't deserve to be ahead of Rutgers.

Anonymous said...

Before I looked, I was ready to hate your poll, what with the comments you've been making the last two weeks. But, I've gotta say, it's very...rational. In particular, Arkansas has got to be the number three team right now. Definitely looking better than Florida right now. And Rutgers? Give them a top five spot now; they'll earn or lose it when they play West Virginia.

Anonymous said...

Also, did anyone else notice that everyone kind of collectively forgot that this happens every year? Last week, we were all complaining about how tough it was going to be to decide the second championship game team. We still kind of are. I'm not saying it'll be a cakewalk like some years (aside: what the hell is a cakewalk anyway?), but by the end of the season I bet there will be no more than three teams that clearly deserve the two spots.

Like every year.

Let's just let the games unfold before we do any posturing *ahem*Auburn*ahem*...

CrumbBum said...

What does it show if Rutgers beats West Virginia? Another loss would make West Virginia a mediocre team playing an easy schedule and losing its only 2 legit games.

APG said...

It's not a double-elimination season. You can lose only once (or not at all) and still not make the championship game.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

guyinthecorner,

Maybe I'm alone, but I think, on a neutral field, Rutgers could definitely give a game to any of the teams on your list.

CMFost said...

OK, Here is a senario, Florida, USC, Rutgers both lose one more game, ND wins out and Michigan Loses to Ohio State.

Who gets into the title game? I say Michigan. How can you put ND in over Michigan when Michigan only lose will be to #1 Ohio State and Michigan beat ND by 2+ TD's at ND

jhawkjjm said...

I'ld like to appologize to everyone, I said that the OU-Oregon fiasco penalized Texas... what I forgot to mention is that it was a PAC-10 Conspiracy to aid USC. There's no way that USC is #3 in the BCS ahead of Florida if Oregon has that loss. Why is this not being talked about more?!?!? That screw up could affect the National Championship game!

Right now I think the title is between the OSU-Mich winner and the USC-Notre Dame winner. ND (win) can jump Michigan (loss)because that was an early season loss. "What have you done for me lately?"

If I were Michigan or Ohio State, I'd pray to the football gods that Florida wins up beause that offense is just horrible.

GuyInTheCorner said...

troy (g,fl)-

I didn't say Rutgers couldn't "give them a game" i said they wouldn't win

that's like the saying in basketball.... "they could play with them" and the response being "yeah, they could play on the same court at the same time, if that's what you mean"

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

jhawk -

Re: OU-UO screwup
You may have just made your first good point ever. That's very interesting, and I imagine it might drive me crazy in December if I were a Florida fan.
But then, this past month has been very good at exposing teams and penalizing them for not actually being good, so I still have faith in Cal beating USC, like I said months ago; after that happens, maybe ND's boost from beating USC wouldn't be enough to push them above an SEC Champion Florida.
So, say it with your fellow Gators - Go Bears!


Re: "what have you done for me lately?"
Do you mean, in the minds of the voters? Or do you mean, in a fair and rational world?

Because that is fair and rational in no way. I take Week 1, maybe Week 2 games with a grain of salt (sorry, SEC fans). Week 3, after Notre Dame had already even played a real game against GT, there's nothing to say. You should have your lineup in order, you should have no jitters or hiccups from inexperience; I believe that a Michigan team in midseason form crushed an ND team in similar form, and no performance since then can cover that up for ND.


I know I'm essentially the only one in the universe who would even suggest this, but: if Michigan beats Ohio State, ND and OSU would have about the same type of loss, so ND can go ahead and jump OSU. Not that it would be any fun, but at least it makes sense.

nyc-steelers fan said...

I agree, good point jhawkjim. Another Q I have, is that, if OU hadn't had that game stolen, there would be one more 1-loss team to consider; OU would have just that single loss to a ranked Texas team, and although they would probably be behind USC, UF, Ark, and ND, those teams might be playing themselves out of it in the near future, as has been discussed ad nauseum here. I'd say between the boost in the voters and computers, OU would easily be a top 8 team, and in the discussions right now... How much did those refs make from that debacle again?

slaskaris said...

Hisjazziness - perfect analysis (couldn't have said it better myself)

..and for those who say "what about Wisconsin?" ...they haven't beaten a ranked team...that's how weak the Big 10 is!!

henry s said...

here's a dumb question:

does a team HAVE to accept a bowl bid?

i.e. if Ohio State beats Michigan, would anything stop them from saying, "that's it; we're done for the year" and claiming the national championship?...(providing an unbeaten Rutgers does not fall into the #2 slot by then)...would this be any different than a slugger sitting out a season's final game to ensure he wins the batting title?...or Notre Dame going for the tie against MSU in the 60's, to preserve their crown?

nyc-steelers fan said...

HenryS, they would lose out on millions and millions of dollars for the game, first of all (not to mention merchanidising and the like, lose the right to the BCS side of the natl championship, and I have a feeling the AP side of it would not let OSU walk away with theirs, although it would be up to the voters.

But it would be one way to blow up the BCS, but there is NOONE who would think seriously of doing it...

Steve said...

No a team doesn't have to accept a bowl bid, Notre Dame has sat at home before when they thought the bowl offered them was beneath them. But if it was for the national championship and a team was too chicken to play, there is no f-ing way the voters would stand for that.

Jo Fer said...

Wisconsin's REALLY outside shot at the title game.

Scenario:

1. USC loses to Cal (Both have two losses)
2. UF loses to FSU (gives Florida two losses)
3. Ark loses to LSU (gives both two losses)
4. Rutgers gets obliterated by WV (thereby dropping them low for a 1 loss team) (or loses an additional 1 of their three remaining games)
5. W.V. losses to Pitt
6. N.D. loses to USC

and of course for the finale.

7. OSU gets absolutely creamed by UM at the horseshoe, therefore, UW playing Mich close in Ann Arbor makes them look better in the polls.

Each individual scenario on it's own is very possible. All 7 hitting is like a 7 team parlay.

Maybe it's just fun for this Badger Alum to play out, but for a first year coach who lost a ton of last year's class coming all the way from a preseason 35 rank...????

danthemanwise said...

For all those that are on the Wisconsin bandwagon, of all the one loss teams that have the farthest to go. They have beaten no ranked teams and against the one legit team they played, they got beat pretty badly.

danthemanwise said...

For all those that are on the Wisconsin bandwagon, of all the one loss teams that have the farthest to go. They have beaten no ranked teams and against the one legit team they played, they got beat pretty badly.

Phillip Schrank said...
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Phillip Schrank said...
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Phillip Schrank said...

I think UW played much better against MICH than ND did, plus it was in Ann Arbor. ND played them at home. I would also contend that UW's shcedule is much better than ND's. UW should be higher than ND. It will be just like last year, ND has a great season but gets creamed when they actually play a good team in a bowl.

UW is one of the most balanced team. They can beat you with the run or the pass. And their D is pretty stiff.

JunkCult said...

Let's assume Rutgers wins out...

If the Big East is a BCS (i.e. MAJOR) Conference, then shouldn't an UNDEFEATED team from a MAJOR conference be in the title game?

If not, then why is the Big East a BCS Conference?

Dan Shanoff said...

What's amazing to me is that the computers -- who you would THINK would be penalizing a so-called "weak" conference like the Big East -- has Rutgers No. 2, while the human polls (who you would THINK would be "rewarding the heart" they can "see with their own eyes," which is the two constant criticisms of the computer polls) are penalizing them.

I'm not saying that the human polls should put Rutgers No. 2 (at least ,not until after next Saturday, when either OSU or Mich has 1 loss). If Rutgers was, appropriately, ranked No. 3 or No. 4, they would be ranked ahead of USC and Florida in the BCS formula.

Let's be clear: It's the human pollsters who are wrecking -- and hardly "correcting," as they would probably contend -- the likelihood of the last two BCS unbeatens meeting in the BCS title game.

(Of course, Rutgers still has to win at West Virginia on Dec. 2. And I'm not sure they can do that. But if they do? Wow: How can you deny them?)

Jo Fer said...

Dan the man,

You obviously didn't watch the UW / UM game.

It WAS close. It was tied 10-10 late in the 3rd quarter, and UW had the lead for most the 1st half, and lost by 14. Hardly "beaten pretty badly". Sure UM threw three picks, but UW's top 10 defense supports that as not just lucky.

2nd. If they had beaten PSU and IOWA earlier in the year when they had decent rankings, (they were both top 15) it would have counted as two "ranked victories" considering everybody on here is going back to the ranking of the teams they beat at that time. ND gets credit for beating a "ranked PSU" but UW doesn't?

I'll let the BCS speak for itself. They are # 8 for a reason.

Andy said...

"I would also contend that UW's shcedule is much better than ND's."

ND's wins over ranked teams: 1
Wisco's wins over ranked teams: 0

ND's games played against non-BCS conference teams: 3 (counting Army this weekend)
Wisco's game against non-BCS conference teams: 4 (counting Buffalo this weekend)

ND's games played against 1-AA teams: 0
Wisco's games played against 1-AA teams: 1

Case closed. You're wrong.

henry s said...

Wisco Kid, he was a friend of mine...