Friday, February 02, 2007

Super Bowl XLI: Your Picks, My Picks

Here we go: Your chance to go on the record with your Super Bowl picks. Meanwhile, my challenge to you: Attempt to untangle the complex "Quickie jinx" implications of the following:

First, I am rooting for the Bears. Part of this is because I really like Rex Grossman. Part of this is because I really don't like Peyton Manning. Part of this is because -- widely unknown Shanoff history alert -- I used to be a HUGE Bears fan and I can't imagine NOT rooting for them. Check out this post, under "(C)," on the not-talking-about-it-yet-but-you-get-a-sneak-peek new blog.

Second, despite the point above, I cannot miss the opportunity to see the fulfillment of the greatest sports prediction of my life: That the Colts would beat the Bears in Super Bowl XLI... predicted back in August. At the time, my specific thinking was this: Peyton Manning is going to chokingly shit the bed, but he will be bailed out by a game-winning field goal by Adam Vinatieri -- only the most clutch player in NFL history... and the reason the Colts paid so much to sign him. Therefore: I am picking the Colts to win on an Adam V. field goal. (Peyton will stink.)

Therefore, given the current Super Bowl point-spread that has the Colts a 7-point favorite over the Bears and given the scenario I laid out in the above paragraph, I pick the Bears to cover.

To summarize:

(1) Picking the Colts to win.
(2) Picking the Bears to cover.
(3) Rooting for the Bears to win.*

* - Even though the Bears winning would ruin No. 1... but I figure that 2-of-3 ain't bad, even if (1) is the most important for the purposes of the greatest "I called it" of my life. Screw it: "I called it" is the lamest boast in the world anyway -- totally worthless.

The upshot: I get the joy, as a fan, of betting on the Bears (not that I bet) yet enjoying the benefit, as an analyst, of knowing that even if the Bears lose, I can win my bet (not that I bet) if/when they cover. But let me be clear: I want the Bears to win. I think the Colts will win, but by less than 7. You can argue that's a lame-ass hedge (I disagree), but that's where I'm standing.

All that said, I am mostly interested to get YOUR picks. Feel free to answer the question on any/all of these levels: (1) Who are you picking to win the game? (2) Will the winner cover the spread? (Obviously, this only matters if you're picking the Colts.) (3) Who are you ROOTING for? (Which, as I've said, doesn't have to be the same as who you think will win.)

Have at it!

-- D.S.

UPDATE: Now THIS is a very cool idea. Don't have the money to run a Super Bowl ad on CBS? Do it for a fraction of the cost and have it simply run on YouTube. (Thanks to PaidContent.org -- one of my favorite, most must-read sites -- for the tip-off.)

92 comments:

nep1293 said...

I like the Bears in a rout similar to Tampa crushing Oakland. Bears jump out early and every time it looks like Indy will get back in it the Bears come up with a big play.

Bears 44-20

Smalley said...

Colts Win
Bears Cover
Colts
---------------

I dont like the whole "best QB never to win a super bowl" argument we here now and will continue to hear if Peyton loses. I hate that sports topic so much. How much. I am a Patriots fan. Give Peyton 1. Then it'll be brady 3, Peyton 1. And the rilvary will be bigger, making betting lead up to games and better games.

BLUE said...

I'm picking the bears to win, so bears obviously cover, and I'll be rooting for the bears. If for no reason other then I don't want Dan's kid to grow up in a world where Peyton Manning is a superbowl winner.

The heroin sheik said...

Bears will win and therefore cover. I know peyton cannot win the big game and therefore he will crap the bed. As much as I like dungy for being a class act and his years resurrecting the tampa franchise I would rather eat a shit sandwich than root for peyton. I figure the sex cannon is due for a good game and that combined with a healthy dose of benson and jones should keep the colts offense on the sideline. I think the bears win by four and they secure the win on a peyton int as time runs out. I just hope they bears have more than three points on them on that final drive or all bets are off with vinatieri kicking.

Patriots64 said...

Colts win and cover!! 34-17

Unknown said...

Bears win 24-20! It's either gonna be the Bears in a squeaker or the Colts in a laugher. I'm going for the former.

bbom said...

Colts 27, Bears 24

The Bears will get a touchdown form Jones, Grossman to Berrian and Hester on a kickoff. A FG late will tie the game. Manning will march down to the 20 and AV will cement his place in the HOF. Manning will throw 3 TDs (Harrison, Clark and Utecht) and rid himslef of the Marino comparisons, leaving Dan in company by himslef.

I am rooting for Tony Dungy more than anything in this game. I think he is a great coach and an even better person.

marcomarco said...

Bears win
Bears cover +7
Bears
Under 49 (best pick of the weekend)

Andrew (JUhS) said...

Colts will win.
Bears will cover.
Rooting for an entertaining game. Please.

Shot in the dark score call:
Colts 16 - Bears 12

verbal97 said...

I'm rooting for a double forfeit (I wanted Saints v. Patriots, maybe it's time to institute a consolation game).

I will pick the Bears to cover and win because no "expert" is giving them a ice cube's chance in hell of winning.

amr said...

verbal97.
can they please play the consolation game in the dead week between the Conf Finals and the SB?

My other idea was to put the pro bowl between the Conf finals and SB and excuse players who make the SB. (Which would you rather play in?)

Patriots64 said...

Gallo on ESPN chat for 1st time now.

marcomarco said...

amr, Great idea!

Manning usually prefer's the Pro Bowl. Maybe he'd skip miami for hawaii ;)

Sorry, too easy.

jhawkjjm said...

1) colts win
2) bears cover
3) go bears!

I'm hoping the weather is crappy and the field turns into a mud pit. If that happens then the Bears have the clear advantage with their run game. That and I can't root for the team that beat mine in the AFC championship.

I just hope it doesn't come down to a field goal for Indy with a chance to win. I won't be able to watch Adam V kick another game winner, this time for Indy. And I don't want him to miss because he won 2 SBs in the last minute for NE so I don't want anything to tarnish that.

Anonymous said...

Colts Win
Bears Cover
Rooting for DAAAAAAAAAA BEARS!

Unfortunately, I had a vivid dream last night wherein, with the game tied, Rex had a pass batted into the air and intercepted by a lineman, returned to the 1 yard line and then Vinatieri ignores my Reggie Miller choke gesture and calmly boots the game winner. I hope I'm wrong.

Geoff said...

Rooting for the Bears to win on behalf of the NFC Norris division... and also because I hate Peyton Manning.

As to who actually will win... hmm.. gonna go with the Colts because I can't see Rex Grossman as a Superbowl winning QB. Then again Trent Dilfer won a Superbowl so whatever...

CMFost said...

My pick is for the Colts to win the Game but not cover the spread. And I will be rooting for the Bears to win since there is no chance I could root for a team that is one of the main rivals of the teams I root for. And for consitenancy with My blog I pick Dallas Clark for the MVP even though it is preordained that if the Colts win Manning will be the MVP.



As for what I think a classic ending would be, Manning driving the Colts down the field for the winning score in a tie game only the throw and INT that is returned for a TD and a BEars win.

Unknown said...

Bears 34 - Colts 24; Devin Hester return breaks game open in 4th Q. Peyton INT seals it.

CMFost said...

Hey did anyone else see that Dan has more my space friends Bill Simmons

http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=9145830

CMFost said...

sorry try:
www.myspace.com/9145830

verbal97 said...

To expand on my double forfeit hopes...

The Bears win the game as a contest when Manning gets picked off resulting in a TD the other way in the last minute of a tie game. However, in celebration, Tank Johnson cracks out an oozie and starts firing hitting (non-fatally of course!) the referee and a couple of other officials. The NFL then forces the Bears to forfeit, but when conducting a random drug test on Manning they find out that he is, in fact, a robot and therefore force the Colts to forfeit. Crack reporting from Peter King revealed that Payton Manning was a creation from a collaboration including Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, Fran Tarkinton and Jim Kelly that they called Chokebot 4000. It turns out that they were so pleased with their efforts that they devised a second one...but with a limited budget they could only come up with a less talented version of "Payton", thus giving us Chokebot 2000 (Eli). They felt bad that the Saints were so bad for so long that they decided to give their creations to their star QB (Archie).

CMFost said...

interesting tidbit from the boston globe today:

LT on Belichick

MIAMI -- San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson said he's looking forward to being coached by Bill Belichick in the Pro Bowl.

Tomlinson added that he spoke in the heat of the moment when he suggested the Patriots' post-game celebration after their playoff win over the Chargers -- which he felt was classless -- was a reflection on Belichick.

"Obviously, the head coach is the leader of the team, but he can't control what his players do," Tomlinson said this morning after accepting the Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year award along with Drew Brees. "A lot of times, in the heat of the battle or right after the game, you kind of say things sometimes that you want to take back.

"For me to say they probably get it from their head coach, that may not be true. I don't know that for sure. I think more times that players react in ways that may be classless, it has nothing to do with the coach.

"So I'm looking forward to seeing Bill and having him coach the game. I think we'll have a good time."

Tomlinson also said his remarks about not wanting to say two words to Belichick might have been misinterpreted. He said he didn't plan to say two words about the post-game incident.

"I think they know it was wrong, but at the same time, Bill has no control over that. It's not a fact that I won't talk to him," Tomlinson said.

TJ said...

The Bears will win outright.

I'm rooting for the Colts.

More later...

Brian in Oxford said...

Ditka versus a Hurricane? Ditka....

But what if it's "Hurricane Ditka"?

I think I just want to see the Bears win....and they can. But geez, I get a bad feeling Peyton's going to look great. Colts 35, Bears 17.

And I'm stuck with Bears-1, Colts-6 in the squares pool. Pats led 21-6 at halftime in the AFC title game, that woulda worked....

Patriots64 said...

You guys that think the Bears will win are forgetting one detail:
Rex Grossman is their QB.

McLovin said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
mark said...

Colts to win
Bears to cover (because 6.5 points is really too many)
Go Colts!

And nobody has any idea, really. No one knows if the Colts have a run defense or not (have the playoffs been an anomaly or a trend?). No one knows if the Bears have a quarterback or not(good Rex or bad?). No one knows why the Bears' defense has been looking softer and the Colts' O shakier over the last few weeks. No one has the slightest idea about any of this. So if you know what's good for you, your money is staying far, far away from this one.

McLovin said...
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NA said...

1st - Bears 7 - Colts 3
Half - Colts 13 - Bears 7
3rd - Colts 20 - Bears 14
Final - Colts 30 - Bears 14

Until I find out the numbers of my $100 box.

Spaceman Spiff said...

in oxford's picture, which one is brian?

Patriots64 said...

Looks like the Deadspinners got tired of jacking off Simmons and are over here now.

nathan said...

Gotta go with the Bears over the Colts by 10. I feel pretty good with this, condsidering on the World Wide Leader's website, the "celebs" who are choosing the Colts are Vanilla Ice, Phyllis Diller, and Dionne Warwick. Whereas the Bears have Paul Newman, "Dog" Chapman, and Wayne Newton on their side. Bear down, Chicago Bears!

Shoebootie said...

I am rooting for Chicago because I think it's important that the first African American coach to win a Super Bowl be dark skinned. Dungy is too light.

Anonymous said...

I'm taking the Mavericks in 5 over the Red Wings.

Andy said...

Can we get a ban on bigstain???

My picks--

Colts in everything. Tony Dungy is a master tactician and will have a perfect game plan. Peyton will not have a great game but will certainly have a decent game. Rhodes and Addai combine for over 100 yards rushing and a TD. Adam V. will kick 3 field goals.

Chicago does nothing offensively. Grossman can say all he wants about not listening to the critics but he's essentially a rookie QB and we all know how that works out. The running game won't do anything. Everyone seems to forget how good Indy's defense has been playing lately. Bob Sanders is the best run stopping safety in the league and he isn't going to let Jones or Benson go anywhere. The long bombs that Grossman is pretty good at never work because he goes into one of his cold spells again.

COLTS WIN, COLTS COVER, GO COLTS!!!!

El Padrino said...
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Kevin said...

Favre is returning to GB next year!

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Mega said...

1)Bears Win
2)Not Applicable
3)Bears

Unknown said...

I want the Bears to win.

That being said I think the Colts win 34-21.

McLovin said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Marcus T said...

I smell this as a year for a blowout. And this game has a sense of Tampa Bay and Oakland from 2002. I am going with Chicago 37-18.

However, I will be rooting for the Colts. I like Manning, him and that offense are fun to watch when they are clicking. He won me over with that Xbox Live commercial from years ago when he was talking trash online in a monotone dull voice. Hysterical. "Your offense, is offensive"

Dan - do you know how badly I want to vomit over hearing "Adam V is most clutch player ever"? I couldn't even read it, it's embarrassing. Yes, he did what no kicker has ever done, but guess what? No kicker has ever had the chances he has had. He deserves credit for the kicks in the snow against Oakland, but those 2 game winning SB field goals? Mid 40 range in perfect conditions? PLEASE. I guarantee at least 12 kickers currently in the league could have hit those. Quit being like Bill Simmons and sucking Adam's cock.

Deadspinner said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

Wow. That was obnoxious. Or not.

McLovin said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Aitch said...

What did Dan do to draw you guys here to bash? Just curious. did he insult you on another board or something. Usually this type of thing is provoked. Just curious...

J Fitty said...

Colts win and cover...win by 10+

I am rooting for...the officials!

bbom said...

If I was insulting, vulgar and obnoxious would I not be classified as a lemming or would I just be one of "those" lemmings.

solomonrex said...

All those idiots who carve bathroom walls apparently grow up to join deadspin and parrot Will's sex jokes.

Barbaro! Lil' sean! Suck! Laugh damn it! This is funny!

McLovin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bbom said...

are you sure?

mark said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
whocares said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
whocares said...

Mark, you're gay.

whocares said...

"(And gay folks can also sit there smugly, secure in the knowledge that they (oh, wait, we!) get more sex in a weekend than you do in an entire year.)"


Yeah, but it's gay sex. Who wants that?

verbal97 said...

Does "bigstain" know any other words besides "douche"?

Plus, I'm guessing "bigstain" refers to something his dad left behind on his sheets.

bbom said...

Wow, I haven't heard something like that since Junior High.

verbal97 said...

what a witty retort!

I don't know why I'm bothering. Clearly, you have the iq of dried up dog crap on 90 degree day

Chaddogg said...

1) Bears Win.
2) Bears Cover
3) Rooting for Bears (with Tony Dungy getting a loud cheer from my apartment if the Colts win - Gruden should be ashamed wearing that ring that belongs to Dungy).

Simply put, there is no team that offers a more favorable matchup for the Bears than the Colts:

1) Weak run defense. Sure, it's been better in the playoffs, but other than NE, none of the teams the Colts beat had 2 RBs that could offer the change of pace that TJ and Cedric the Benson offer. Plus:

2) Susceptibility of the Colts secondary to play action deep balls. No other team the Colts faced in the playoffs had a home run threat like Berrian. And say what you will about Rex, but his BEST throw is the deep ball. He'll have his chance off play action deep, and hit it once or twice. That'll be enough to soften up the run defense and give the Bears RB room to run.

3) Desmond Clark. He'll have a huge game - the Colts have no one to cover him. Expect him up the middle and the seam a couple times, at least.

4) Bears fast D. This is the fastest D the Colts have faced. All the Bears LB can cover Dallas Clark, meaning they won't need to be in nickel too much (they will, though, use Ricky Manning to offer Hillenmeyer a break occasionally). The Bears force turnovers, too, and will rip the ball out of the Colts' hands (expect more fumbles than interceptions).

5) Special teams. Bears will win the field position battle all game, thanks to Maynard and Hester.

The game comes down to the Bears bending but not breaking (giving up FGs but not TDs), Bears D getting turnovers, special teams giving the Bears offense good field position, and Rex showing off the deep ball to Berrian enough during the game to free up the running game.

The game ends up a rout: Bears 34 - Colts 20. Rex is MVP behind his 3 TD, 240+ yard, 0 INT game.

BLUE said...

Maybe if we just ignore the deadspinners they'll go back to their cult, and start calling people the balls, and talk about barbaro.

Kevin said...

Here's something nobody has mentioned yet: it's Peyton Manning's first Super Bowl, and the coin toss will be done by...Dan Marino. No, I'm not making this up. Don't you have to pick the Bears based on that alone?

solomonrex said...

bigstain=deadspinner

McLovin said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
mark said...

Bro bubble:

Yes. I'm gay. If you read my profile, it's right there.

And how is that a problem?

verbal97 said...

I doubt that solomonrex...he's clearly he's even too childish and too full of himself for them...which is saying a lot

BLUE said...

All of these guys came from rev. smokin steve's blog. They wanted to launch an assault on deadspin, like deadspin did on ESPN yesterday, but they knew that Deadspin was too big...plus you can't get comments on there. So they picked Shanoff, because....?????? well because they're idiots with nothing better to do.

BLUE said...

highschool must be over today?

Anonymous said...

who is smokey steve?

Patriots64 said...

rev. smokin steve's blog.??

Never heard of it, is it a highschool kid thing or something?

Patriots64 said...

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees and San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson were named co-winners of the Walter Payton Man of the Year award on Friday.

Morneau agrees to terms with Twins
Canadian Justin Morneau agreed to a US$4.5-million, one-year contract with the Minnesota Twins on Friday.

Aitch said...

ok, so what is Rev. Smokin Steve and his readers/friends' problem with Dan?

Roge said...

Bears 39
Colts 13

The Bears D scores once, special teams once, but Grossman delivers in a HUGE way.

Grossman's numbers: 27-36 296 yards 2 TDs 0 INTs.

Write it down.

Dan Bilicki said...

I'm picking the Colts to win, but not cover 30-24. Is it not utterly retarded to put the line at 7 even? Vegas will be in chaos if there's a tie in the Super Bowl.

I've written a post of the game on my blog if anyone wants to check out my reasoning.

http://dansramblings.blogspot.com

Feel free to visit and comment.

Jen said...

I'm hoping for a lot of field goals so I win some cake on my square board.

I'm taking the Bears, win cover and who I'm rooting for.

solomonrex said...

I can't understand why he wouldn't link to you!

Patriots64 said...

I remember to never ever visit that blog. Thanks

BLUE said...

Maybe if you guys offered some original content or ideas instead of just regurgitating sportscenter or bill simmons, then Dan would have linked to you.

marcomarco said...

Seeing these Deadspinners extract their revenge on Dan-o is somewhat amusing. Then again, I have a tormented sense of humor.

I wonder what happened to unleash their wrath

CMFost said...

Wow, let's see, Dan Shanoff's blog with intelligent(for the most part) conversations about sports and events or a blog that is full of complete morons who only now how to act like complete assholes?

Easy Choice for me: Dan's Blog

Please take your crap somewhere else.

BLUE said...

sell crazy somewhere else, we're all stocked up here.

BLUE said...

JFreak, ever get up before noon and see that shanoffs stuff is up about 3 hours before ESPN ever loads the new news stories?

Patriots64 said...

Dan will be happy with the postcount and hits on the site today!!

Dan Shanoff said...

I'm flattered by the attention. Cleaning up the comments isn't much fun, but comes with the territory, I guess. Trying to understand who I made so upset and why... -- Dan

MDG said...

Dan, I blame Barbaro dying. People are still a little shaken by it.

Dan Shanoff said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

I'm pulling for the Colts because I'm a Hoosier.

But more importantly, I'm pulling for Peyton, because I'm sick of lame-ass Tennesee fans trashing him after he couldn't deliver in college. But they pulled for him while he gave them 4 years of winning seasons. Then they praise him by sporting his number when he visits the Titans. Christ, just decide all ready!

If you remember who led Tennessee to their National Championship in '98, I'd like to point out he hasn't done shit in any worthy professional league.

tem said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Dan Shanoff said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

Freeney with 2.5 sacks, Harrison with 2 TDs and modestly hands the ball to the ref. Colts win easily. Their D is better than people think and the Bears D is worse.

If Peyton gets in an early groove and Bears have to come from behind, it will be Colts in a rout.

I think 38-9 which will let me win the office SuperBowl pool!!

Steve said...

Colts went 5-0 against AFC East teams this year. Bears went 2-2. The NFC is just crap compared to the AFC. Colts win in a blowout. 41-17. The real Super Bowl was 2 weeks ago.

jdn9201 said...

Yesterday, I actually got a phone call from where I used to work wanting my opinion about the game. I've got the same feeling now that I did when the Championship games were over- Bears are going to win outright. I don't think it'll be a blowout. I know Dan just asked for picks here, but here are my reasons why-

1. Colts had their SB when they beat NE.

2. Bears defense (and team) is getting no respect. I think they come out with a similar performance to the Pats team that beat the Rams. They are gonna play up on the line and beat the hell out of the Colts smallish WR's.

3. As a longtime UT (well, started when Peyton was there) fan, I don't trust Peyton in big games. He's gonna choke.

4. Bears will get one non-offensive td, whether it be an INT return, punt return, etc.

Even though I think the Bears will win, I'll be cheering for the Colts.

But, I think final score is

CHI 28
IND 21

Unknown said...

Top X Predictions for Super Bowl XLI:
I. Bears +7.5
II. Bears in the rain, Colts in the sun
III. Neither Rhodes nor Addai will have 75 yards rushing
IV. At least 1 appearence of the Manning Face
V. Rexcrement will throw at least 1 INT
VI. Sexy Rexy will throw at least 2 TDs
VII. The Colts will make 3 FGs
IX. Marvin Harrison will drop at least 2 passes
X. Urlacher will jump on top of at least five tackles where the runner has been down for a while

Rain score: 24-16 Bears
Sun score: 23-20 Colts
Rain/Sun Score: 22-19.5 Bears