Thursday, March 13, 2008

ISO Fantasy MLB Draft Advice: 4th Overall

OK, so my fantasy baseball draft is tonight. I'm No. 4 in a 16-team league, so my first 3 picks are Nos. 4, 29 and 36... before a LONG wait.

(1) Who do I take with No. 4 overall? Conventional wisdom would say "Whoever is remaining among A-Rod, Hanley, Wright or Reyes."

That said, as long as I'm not picking again until No. 29, I give myself some leeway -- particularly if there is a player in that first 16 or so who I really wanted. In this case, it's Ryan Braun. He is not worthy of being No. 4 (his average draft spot is No. 14... he certainly won't last until No. 29).

Is there anyone else I should be looking at at No. 4 beyond that "Big Four?"

(2) Who should I target in that 29 and 36 spot? Here's the consideration: Obviously, it depends on who I take at 4 (and who is already selected, etc.). Basically, I'm looking for a "First 3" strategy: IF/OF/P? IF/OF/Best Available? BA/BA/BA?

(3) If you're willing to put it in the Comments publicly, who are your big sleepers and breakout players I should overvalue -- meaning: They're worth taking higher than you'd think based on their position ranking or average draft position. (Keep in mind that I regularly take a flier on rookies, who are generally undervalued... at least the ones that "break through.")

I'll report back tomorrow with the results. It won't be pretty. I can hang for about the first 10 rounds, and then I start to get very iffy as things start to drift to the back of the rotation, as well as the bullpen.

-- D.S.


Anonymous said...

Background: The draft I referring to is a 5x5 head-to-head.

Last week, I was sitting at 5 in my draft. Which means exactly behind the big 4. Now I'm sitting there staring at Albert and his broken body.

I grabbed Santana. First of all, the thought of him pitching against NL lineups (including pitchers!!) has me giddy. Second of all, I felt that he was much more likely to help me win 4 categories than anyone on the board (even A-Rod/Hanley perhaps).

People immediately started razzing me for going pitching so early, so I took it a step further. I went Santana-Peavy-Sabathia 1, 2, 3. My thinking is that W, K, ERA, WHIP matter just as much as HR, R, RBI, AVG, and over the course of a week are less subject to streaks.

I also took guys later who can provde a boost to a single category that will push me over the top for the week assuming my pitching does what it should (Ellsbury/Figgins for speed, Dunn for HR)

Maybe I went overboard, maybe it's stupid. But I'm sure as hell not going to come in 6th trying to be above average.

I was high on Braun too (Thanks BP 08), but he wasnt there when I came around. I like Fukudome, Ellsbury for value. Like you, I took fliers on rookies with Longoria and Bruce (29 HR says PECOTA!).

Good luck.

TC said...

Going against your "Big 4", I'd imagine Utley makes a solid pick. Not a lot of 2Bmen like him, for certain.

Johnny b said...

Umm how about Johan at 4? He's going to tear up the National League

Jeff Olson said...

hey dan - 1) take one of the top four. 2)i like ba/ba/ba ,as long as they are not upton, cano, victor martinez. 3)i overvalued the flyin hawaiian shane victorino and kelly johnson.

Unknown said...

Dan, with the #4 I'd take Chase Utley because of the lack of depth at the 2b position. He hit, .332 with 22 hrs 103 rbs, and 9 sbs. Then I go with someone who will cover a lot of categories. I.e. Curtis Granderson. Its all about offense in the first few rounds.

Neil said...

dan, i'd say go after santana. you can always find an rbi, homerun, sb guy who is unappreciated. Santana might win 25 games if things roll right. plus his k's will be right up there as well.

Mike said...

In the early round I generally go best available.

Jeff Gray said...

OF is much more scarce than you think. If it is a 5 OF league, the dregs of the OF are probably worse than the dregs at C, 2B, SS -- so don't reach with your second and third picks just because someone plays a certain position.

I'd go hitter/hitter/hitter and try to get 2 legitimate 35 HR guys irrespective of position. Only draft a pitcher with that third pick if he is the last one of the top tier -- ie, get a Brandon Webb, not a Barry Zito.

Sleeper: I like Milledge.