Sunday, December 07, 2008

Sunday 12/07 Quickie: Florida vs. Okla?

I'm not sure I'll truly believe in a Florida-Oklahoma BCS national-title game until I see it in the official reveal tonight. It is absurd that I should be worried about Florida's place in the game.

But if it is Florida-Oklahoma, I project that the Sooners will get worked over as roughly as they have been in their past two BCS bowl games.

The fact is: Oklahoma's prolific offense -- which scored the most points in a season in D-1 history -- is complemented by an utterly porous defense, which doesn't even crack the top half in D-1.

If there is one common trait that national champions share, it is stifling defense -- at least Top 20 in the country. Florida is No. 3.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma's defense is in a competition with its offense to see who can score highest into the 60s.

So: Florida's offense can overwhelm OU's defense -- especially with Percy Harvin back. (They scored 31 points on Alabama's Top 5 defense...without Harvin.)

And Florida's defense -- again, Top 3 in the nation -- can contain Oklahoma's offense.

We have seen this before, both with Florida ('06) and with Oklahoma (the last two BCS bowl games it played in).

I wouldn't be surprised if Florida won by 20+. Florida's toughest game of the season was played last night.

(Now: Will there be a split champ? If Florida is ranked ahead of Texas in the AP poll today -- especially at No. 1, where it should be, given that it was No. 2 heading into a win over No. 1 last night -- it would be very hard for AP voters to vault Texas over Florida, unless they were simply interested in the college football equivalent of "jury nullification.")

-- D.S.

5 comments:

Steve said...

I don't think I've ever pulled for something not involving my teams as much as I'm pulling for an Oklahoma-Texas rematch.

Ted said...

Dan, I understand your point about Oklahoma not having a great defense. But, they did hold Missouri to 21 last night. Also, their defense doesn't need to be that good. With an offense that puts up as many points as they do, it only takes a few stops to get their team a sizable lead. I'm not saying the Sooners would definitely win, but I think your early prediction of a 20+ point victory is a tad off. Remember, it's the Big 12, not the Big 10.

Also, you may want to wait until Florida actually gets in the title game before talking about it. Computers still love Texas and we have seen crazier things before.

Drunken said...

If the Gators beat the Sooners, but by a margin less than Texas did, I can see AP splitting the championship...

Max said...

Dan,

OU would've destroyed Alabama yesterday. There is no way they could've kept up with the Sooners offense. Florida's toughest game (if they're fortunate enough to be chosen), is still coming. Much like USC and the weak Pac-10, Florida's defensive stats are a direct result of the pathetic offenses in the SEC.

It's unfortunate for OU that Florida will have a home game for the National Championship (much like LSU in '03).

DougOLis said...

# of Top 25 Scoring Offenses Florida has played: 0
So Florida's defense didn't really have to stop any good offenses

# of Top 50 Scoring Offenses Florida has played: 6
Florida played 6 teams with decent offenses and the rest were bad

# of Top 25 Scoring Offenses Oklahoma played: 7
Now do you see why Oklahoma gave up more points than Florida?