If I was on the Selection Committee, I would evaluate things like this on the Bubble this morning:
IN, for sure:
San Diego St
VA Tech (apparently, a lock)
Ole Miss (apparently, a lock)
Florida (apparently, a lock)
Rhode Island (can play itself in with a win over Temple?)
Mississippi State (apparently screwed)
Minnesota (what if they beat Purdue?)
I don't know what to do with that SEC trio on the "Maybe" list. Ole Miss and Florida were both in, heading into yesterday. Both lost. Ole Miss was probably supposed to lose (vs. Tennessee in Nashville?) But Florida-Mississippi State was really a "play-in" situation; it is very easy for the Committee to judge two Bubble teams when they play head-to-head.
It's hard for me to laud San Diego State and UNLV for winning huge, must-win games against better teams and not smack Florida for choking when it matters most. All "bracketologist" stuff suggests Florida is still in, but it wouldn't surprise me if MSU leap-frogged them. (And yet the leading bracket projection aggregator has MSU out and not even close.)
Not many Bubble teams left that can do something to help themselves go from "out" to "in" today. Rhode Island, playing Temple. Mississippi State, apparently, needs another win in the SEC. Minnesota may have to do more than just beat Purdue today.
Every other at-large spot seems accounted for.