Sunday, November 21, 2010

Sunday CFB Hangover: BCS Talk

Here's a question I'm going to dig into more during the week:

If you hate -- I mean HATE -- the BCS, would you rather see Boise State crash the BCS title game (which would allow the institutional system to claim that the system "works") or see Boise State NOT make the BCS title game in some kind of egregious way, like if Auburn loses to Alabama next week but still makes the BCS title game with 1 loss.

I would argue that if you hate the BCS, you need to be rooting for Auburn to lose, but still to beat out unbeaten Boise State for a spot in the national title game.

In other words, Boise State making the BCS title game is arguably the worst thing that could happen for critics that would like to see the BCS implode.

Meanwhile: The Wrigley game WAS pretty funky to watch. As someone rooting for Northwestern, the actual game outcome was less fun.

I am so impressed with Stanford. How impressed? Well, for starters, I think if Stanford played Oregon on a neutral field (rather than in Eugene), I think Stanford wins. I think Stanford destroyed Cal, while Oregon damn nearly lost to them.

And I think that just two weeks after ranking TCU at No. 1, I am pushing Stanford to No. 4, ahead of TCU and just a smidgen behind Oregon, who I have at No. 3. (Man, it's kind of unfair and ridiculous how I'm penalizing TCU at this point.)

I will keep Boise at No. 1 -- I think they would beat any team in the country, head-to-head. Boise has its toughest game of the season -- including Virginia Tech -- next Friday vs. Nevada.

Auburn is No. 2 -- for now. Obviously, their game on Friday against Alabama is The Season. My gut says that Alabama, motivated to absolutely ruin their blood-rival's season, will win. My head says that, as predisposed as I am to be awed by Bama, Auburn is better this season.

Prelim BlogPoll ballot: (1) Boise, (2) Auburn, (3) Oregon, (4) Stanford, (5) TCU, (6) LSU, (7) Wisconsin, (8) Alabama, (9) Ohio State, (10) Oklahoma State, (11) Arkansas, (12) Michigan State, (13) Oklahoma, (14) South Carolina, (15) Virginia Tech.

(I will say this: If Auburn does beat Alabama, it would be awfully hard not to slot Auburn at No. 1 in the country -- their schedule will have been more merciless than any, and that's not even including the following week's SEC title game against surging South Carolina, who Auburn barely beat at home back in September. The irony is if Auburn beats Alabama, only to lose a week later in the rematch with the Gamecocks, which could totally happen.)

The ultimate scenario is this:

*Oregon loses at Oregon State -- and, given the way OSU beat USC way more comprehensively than Oregon did, could totally happen.

*Auburn loses to either Alabama or South Carolina.

*Boise loses to Nevada.

Then what? I think we'd get unbeaten TCU vs. 1-loss Oregon in the national-title game, because I can't see pollsters putting a non-SEC-champ Auburn in the national title game.

(Of course, the more likely scenario is that Oregon and Auburn both win out, and the title-game pairing is devoid of much controversy, beyond a basic claim that Boise and TCU got screwed.)

2 comments:

Kevin said...

If only BCS computers took margin of victory into account, even a little bit.

If you look at Sagarin's predictor ratings, right now, here is your top 5:

1. Oregon
2. Boise State
3. Stanford
4. TCU
5. Alabama

Auburn is actually 11th.

Scott said...

DAN-

as a regular reader, something surprised me... both of us being fathers, and SURELY you have seen "cars"... how could you not have drawn the parallel in nascar between the real life situation and the movie?!?!?!
i'm not a follower of nascar, but just reading your report on how it was all gonna come down to the final race... how could there be a more perfect setup??
my question is - who was "Lightning McQueen"???
(now, at this very moment, i can't remember the names of the dickish green guy and the old-man blue guy, but... you get my drift...)
i'd love to have you set it up like that in the monday column!!!

faithful reader-
scott howard
asuncion, Paraguay