Tuesday, January 09, 2007

My Final Top 10 CFB Rankings
(Plus Predicting Next Season's Champ)


Here is my final CFB Top 10
(Be sure to read through 'til the end for my wacked predictions for next season's national champ!)

1. Florida
2. LSU
3. Ohio State
4. Boise State
5. USC
6. Louisville
7. Auburn
8. Wisconsin
9. West Virginia
10. Michigan

My final Top 10 reflects what we all saw last night: Speed kills. Specifically, SEC speed kills. And I honestly believe that LSU's speed, particularly on defense, would beat Ohio State in the same way that Florida's did (without the sophistication on offense).

I really WANTED to put Boise State No. 2 or certainly No. 3, but I couldn't bring myself to put them over BOTH Ohio State and LSU (even though I'm not sure OSU could beat Boise or USC; I'm guilty of my own "inertia pick" that I throttled voters for all year long). However, I had no problem putting Boise over USC; just reference their respective performances against common opponent Oregon State.

Louisville and Auburn get that "speed bump." I hesitate to put Wisconsin so high, but you have to reward them for beating one of the Top 3 teams in the SEC. As for Michigan: I'm punishing them for the way they lost to USC, but also to reflect that West Virginia plays like an SEC team -- fast. And, as USC proved in the Rose Bowl, LSU proved in the Sugar and Florida proved last night, that would beat Michigan.

Looking ahead to next year? Hmm: Not obvious. USC loses Jarrett (and could lose Carroll and/or Sarkisian). Florida loses most of its defense. Ohio State loses most of its offense. LSU loses JaMarcus Russell. Louisville loses its coach (and probably its QB). Arkansas returns McFadden, but I can't see them getting through the SEC unscathed. Notre Dame? Don't make me laugh. Michigan might run the table, but there's no reason to believe they wouldn't have the same problems as Ohio State did last night against a team with speed in the title game. OK, I'm ready to call it: Next year's national title game result: Unbeaten No. 2 Texas over unbeaten No. 1 Michigan. Unbeaten No. 3 West Virginia over 1-loss No. 4 Florida. SPLIT National Champs: Texas (Coaches); West Virginia (AP).

-- D.S.


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brodie9322 said...

I am curious why OSU's 41-14 loss speaks to Florida's greatness and OSU remains #3 while ND's 41-14 loss speaks to ND being a sham program held up by media bias?

Unknown said...

Hm. Dan you're really expecting Florida to bounce back fast from this year's losses.

I can see WVU being undefeated (though Rutgers may have a say).
I do not see Michigan being undefeated.

Unknown said...

btw, did Peterson declare already? I thought the Texas defense loses a lot this year. And a lot of offensive skill players?

ABrotherMcMullen said...

Ummm...you reference common opponents as rationale for boosting Boise State ahead of USC but completely disregard head-to-head results.
Your final rankings should reflect Michigan 27 - Wisconsin 13.
#8 Mich.
#9 WVU
#10 Wisc.

Kevin said...

To echo what tom said...how the hell did you have Michigan over Wisconsin? Michigan played a much, much tougher sked and beat Wisconsin head-to-head.

Kevin said...

As for your whole SEC Speed Kills thing...it's a good concept, but I don't think you can draw any broad, nation-wide conclusions from one game. Any other examples?

Natsfan74 said...

I can't get over how people think there is no speed at OSU, or in the Big 10 in general.

The best thing that John Cooper ever did for that conference was go out and recruit speed and make the B10 national recruiters rather than local. Ohio State has 3 receivers who run sub 4.3 and some fast DBs as well. Remember how Ginn was pulling away on his return?

Florida won last night because of flawless execution of a better game plan and they won the battle of the trenches. If their speed was so superior, why didn't we see it on special teams or why were they unable to go deep the whole game?

FutureLegendVinceYoung said...

Brodie ND's loss was just another blow out against a superior team while OSU ran up against a buzzsaw last night. If OSU got beat 41-14 than UF may have put up about 70 on ND

FutureLegendVinceYoung said...
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pedro said...

this is what I got out of the article: SEC SEC SEC

Stooncer said...

Dan - it's official; you're nuts. As much as I hat to say this, USC has to be considered for No. 1 at the end of next season. Even if JD Booty can't get it together, they have a stud in Sanchez just waiting for his shot.

Don't count out Aubrun, if they can get their offense in check and install an effective passing game.

kmv9 said...

USC = overrated
i can see them becoming like notre dame, success based on a name ... usc didnt have a great season but will be in the top 4 on basically every poll

FutureLegendVinceYoung said...

USC overrated?!?! I am not a big fan of USC but there is no way they are overrated. As long as Carroll stays they bring in some of the best talent every year. They did stumble twice this year but they are loaded for next and that scares me because they are playing the Huskers in Lincoln and will probably beat the shit out of them.

Jason said...

Your 6 BCS Conference winners will be:

USC, Texas (or Nebraska), West Virginia (or Rutgers...not Louisville without Petrino and Bush and maybe Brohm), Michigan (or Wisconsin), Auburn (or LSU or Florida), Some team from the ACC no one cares about (or Boston College).

So yeah...next year is wide open.

Jason said...

*or Virginia Tech.

flubby said...

Louisville (and USC) would smoke Ohio State.

Brian in Oxford said...

How about OSU over USC when OSU beat Michigan by 3, USC beat 'em by 14.

We can spin anything, can't we?

Dave Rothgery said...

Enough with the stupid 'Oregon State Rule'. If you want to rank Boise higher then USC because they were undefeated, it's fine, but football is not transitive.

USC beat Cal. Cal beat Oregon State. Oregon State beat USC. If beating Oregon State is supposed to indicate that you can beat USC, well, there are two counter-examples to that (Washington State is the other one).

Auburn beat Florida. Florida beat Arkansas. Arkansas beat Auburn.

Louisville beat West Virginia. Rutgers beat Louisville. West Virginia beat Rutgers.

This sort of thing happens all the time.

Jeff said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Jeff said...

*realized I was far to big of a prick in my previous post. So I changed it*

Very intresting comments, any it would be perfect if OSU lost to Florida becuase of Florida's speed. Unfortuantly that isn't the case.

The entire SEC Speed vs Big 10 Strength isn't a factor anymore in todays football. Lets also not forget that the Big 10 was 2-1 vs the SEC this year in Bowl Games. If the SEC is so much faster (as you assume it is) and since speed is the key to winning any football game (as you assume it is) why wouldn't the SEC win all 3 games?

Anonymous said...

USC overrated? I don't think so. And comparing them the ND is pretty dumb-USC won their BCS game very convincingly. Given that they are returning most of their players, why would they be worse next year? And I really don't think Pete Carroll is going anywhere anytime soon.

TJ said...

This sort of thing happens all the time

Exactly. Right on, Dave Rothgery.

Anyway, my top 10 looks something like:

1. UF
2. USC
3. LSU
4. Boise State
5. OSU
6. Louisville
7. Michigan
8. Wisconsin
9. BYU
10. Oklahoma

Anonymous said...

Dan, your theory about SEC speed is limited at best. All the top teams in the land have speed. It is not limited to the SEC. Florida is not noticeably speedier than OSU. They won that game because their D-Line completely dominated the OSU O-line. The battle in the trenches does not have a ton to do with speed. Your argument is based on one game.
If you look at the SEC as a whole, was Tennessee's SEC speed too much for Penn St? was Arkansas' SEC speed too much for Wisconsin? hell, even look at Auburn, who beat Nebraska. Nebraska dominated most of that game (except of course the two turnovers inside their own 10 that led directly to the Tigers only TDs).

All the top teams have speed. It's not just the SEC.