Monday, December 01, 2008

Ultimate Schadenfreude: What If Florida Wins But Doesn't Crack the BCS Top 2?

In the event that Florida beats Alabama, if human pollsters want to ensure that we don't see an Oklahoma-Texas result from the BCS formula, they MUST rank Florida No. 1, even if they think Oklahoma is the better team.

Human pollsters should simply put Florida at No. 1 and Oklahoma at No. 2. That's because the BCS computer polls hate Florida, and a No. 2 ranking in the human polls combined with a sub-1/2 ranking by the computers puts Florida in a precarious position. (Saurian Sagacity runs the numbers - via Doc Saturday - and it is scarier than you think.)

To avoid the Rematch No One Wants, fans will need a manual override of the computers, or I suspect folks will be freaking come Monday. This has been absurdly underreported -- see all the "playoff"/winner of the SEC Championship Game is in the BCS title game talk.

This is sizing up eerily like 2004, when an unbeaten Auburn was shut out of the BCS title game -- or even a split title -- because a Big 12 "contender" faked its way into the national title game, where they promptly got drilled.

-- D.S.


Unknown said...


I think you're getting a little premature campaigning for a Florida #1 vote. They still have to play Alabama this week.

I know Florida will be the favorite, but Nick Saban tends to pull a few tricks out of his sleeve in the big games.

To me, there is a much better chance of Florida losing this weekend than Oklahoma.

Brett said...

How do you know everyone does not want to see Texas vs. OU II?

Despite the fact I love reading your blog and differ from you on every opinion I hope that we see OU vs UT II. It would be great to read your blog that night and the next day.

Here's hoping for a 5-3 Florida win and OU winning 60-3 to bring us UT vs OU II!

BobbyStompy said...

Shanoff. It's college football. There are roster turnovers every single year. You can't use the "welp, by golly, a Big 12 team got destroyed in 2003" argument. Makes you seem real petty. And, for context, Urban wasn't even at Florida.

I get that you're worried about UF not making the title game (totally fair as a fan), but it's like you've been backed into a corner and you're trying to scratch your way out with blindly pro-SEC claws.

How can you really question Oklahoma (or Texas, for that matter) after seeing the body of work this season? The Big 12 is, no doubt about it, the best conference in college football, and both teams have come out -- relatively -- unscathed.

pete said...

First of all, you effed up your hyperlink.

Second, I think that UT-OU II is definitely something people would want to see. With all of the commentary about this 3-way tie, and who deserves to be ranked higher, and blah blah blah, I think people would want to see that rematch. Way more than anyone would want to see Alabama-Florida II (should OU lose to Mizzou).

CJ said...

How could anyone who doesn't like the BCS actually root for an outcome other than this dire prediction?

What could hasten the end of the BCS any faster than a Florida win, an OU win and the computers giving us UT vs. OU in the National Championship game?

You have to take off your gator-colored glasses and look at the broader implications. This "disaster" you forsee is just the thing college football needs!

jackscrow said...

Another year when the two best teams (Fla + USC, barring a Fla loss) will not be playing.

I know, they should have taken care of biz, but I'm betting humans can rank these teams better.