Friday, August 21, 2009

College Football BlogPoll Top 25 Ballot, Pt 1

Here is my first pass at my preseason college football BlogPoll Top 25 ballot. Let's get to it (caveats and methodologies below poll, with number of projected losses designated next to team, probably fudging "trap factor" by 1 loss per team):

1. Florida (Unbeaten "-0")
2. Texas (-0)
3. Penn State (-0)
4. Oklahoma (-1)
5. USC (-1)
6. Ole Miss (-2*)
7. Alabama (-1)
8. Georgia Tech (-1)
9. LSU (-2)
10. Boise St (-0)
11. Oklahoma State (-2)
12. Oregon (-2)
13. Ohio State (-2)
14. Cal (-2)
15. TCU (-1)
16. Kansas (-2)
17. BYU (-1)
18. Utah (-3)
19. Georgia (-4)
20. Iowa (-4)
21. Western Michigan (-0)
22. Virginia Tech (-3)
23. Oregon State (-3)
24. Florida State (-3)
25. Cincinnati (-2)

My methodology is shaky: In the absence of any 2009 evidence, it is mainly a projection of how I think they will finish the season. (Thus, if I think Boise State will be unbeaten, I have them in the Top 10, where the "real" polls will absolutely have them. That doesn't account for the idea that I think Western Michigan might run the table; they would finish closer to 10th than 20th.)

The larger point: I want your feedback, via Comments, which I will check throughout the day and evening, into tomorrow. Who is too high? Who is underrated? Who is left out but shouldn't be? Make a case, and -- you know me -- I'll flip-flop in the face of strong evidence. I would love to have this locked in by Sunday morning, at which point I'll do a post with my final ballot.

* - Per the Comments, let me explain: Ole Miss will have 1 loss going into the SEC title game, which they will lose to Florida. The "loss" parenthetical counted conference title games but did not count bowl games. As Ole Miss will beat Bama head-to-head and win the SEC West, I felt it fair not to punish them by ranking them behind Bama when the Rebels lose to Florida.

** -- That's right: No Notre Dame. I will bet on Weis's failure and take my chances being proven wrong. More power to them if they have a season worthy of the Top 25. I project they won't sniff beating a Top 25-worthy team this season.


Geo B said...

Wow Dan hope you are right about my Penn State team - but I don't see it. Replacing the entire secondary and most of the offensive line - just don't think they run the table.!/DuelingAces said...

Before I get started i just want to say that the winner of the Ohio State/USC game will be going to the NC game so one of those two teams needs to be a lot closer to the Florida Tebows at #1

1. I think you mean Central Michigan, not Western Michigan. Central Michigan has Dan LeFevour
2. Penn State way too high, I just don't think they have the defense and the loss of Derrick Williams is going to hurt them a lot more than people are talking about.
3. Bama or Ole Miss is too high at the bottom half of the top 10, one of those teams will be there but not both.
4. Cincy is way too low, I don't think they are better than the 25th ranking but in the Big East who is going to beat them they could run the table in there conference and beat whatever ACC team in the Orange bowl and finish in the top 10.
5. I don't know what it is about your hatred with Ohio State but they are going to be better than 13th. There is no way Oregon, OK State (who I love) and Penn State finish ahead of Ohio State.
6. VT should be a little higher and in the weak ACC I don't know how you can leave off the most well balanced team with the best coach in the conference out of the top 25 in UNC
7. Cal should be bumped up a little, at least ahead of Oregon (I know you love Jeremiah Masoli) but Oregon has a new coach
8. LSU is a bit high
9. Northwestern's schedule plays out so they can ease in a new quarterback I think they will find a way to sneak into the top 25
10. I see Utah having a subpar season, it'll be hard to replace Johnson and I see them falling out of the top 25.

CorrND said...

You were guaranteed one of these and I know your ridiculous bias against means you'll probably just stop reading right now, but why isn't ND in your top 25?

Who on their schedule is going to beat them, other than USC? I'm not arguing that ND is a top 10 team or anything, but seriously, their schedule is so weak that they could be exceedingly mediocre and go 8-4, easy. 10-2 or 9-3 is more likely and that would clearly land them in the low top 25.

That's where everybody else is placing them. At least, those prognosticators willing to leave bias at the door and look at things objectively.

CorrND said...

If your non-ranking is truly unbiased and you think ND is going to be terrible, I think you think you should willing go on record and state exactly which teams you think they're going to lose to.

Go ahead, Dan, I dare you! :)

Andy said...

Why is Ole Miss with 2 losses ahead of Alabama with 1 loss? They're in the same division and play nearly identical schedules, except 'Bama has a tough non-conference game in Va Tech.