UPDATE 2: Ask and ye shall receive! Now THIS was a great day of games! (Even if the favorites dominated... except for hardly-mid-major Butler and suddenly-Cindy-ish 6-seed Vandy!) Like many, I was sad to see VCU get KO'ed, but at least it was a dramatic game. At this point, that's all we're looking for. And, after waiting around for two days, we finally got.
UPDATE 1: OK, so today is definitely an improvement on Round 1. Ohio State taken to the limit and now mid-major Butler knocking off big-conference Maryland (but given the styles of the two teams, you kind of had to see it coming... of course, I didn't on MY bracket, but that's another story.)
And Louisville and Texas A&M are in a tight one that should stay close the rest of the way.
ORIGINAL POST: Well, at least the Ohio State-Xavier game was an exciting one, even if OSU won the game (or, I should say, Xavier choked it away).
Worth noting: OSU played so much better without Oden. (And where was Oden down the stretch of regulation? Why isn't he demanding the ball? And why doesn't Matta run the O through him?)
Meanwhile, I can't believe Jim Nantz is shilling for Circuit City. It seems so... lowbrow for someone who hangs his hat on "A tradition unlike any other..."
Saturday, March 17, 2007
Saturday 03/17 Quickie:
Worst. First Round. Ever.
The NCAA first-round returns are in, and this was -- without standard Shanoffian hyperbole or instant hysteria:
Worst. First Round. Ever.
No upsets. I steadfastly refuse to count 9-over-8 as an "upset," so we're left with two in the entire Tournament first round:
VCU over Duke, which will only grow in legend given its upset novelty.
Winthrop over Notre Dame, which nearly half of America saw coming, hardly qualifying it as a classic "upset."
No fantastic finishes. How pathetic (and/or symbolic) is it that VCU-Duke has to pull double-duty as both "best/only upset" and "best/only fantastic finish?" (Maybe VA Tech over Illinois on a 12-0 game-ending run, but that was less fantastic than ugly.)
This year's theme so far? Lame, predictable results.
And that is the worst possible thing to happen to the Tournament.
I guess it's testimony to the Tournament's history and legacy of upsets and wild finishes that a Tournament without them seems so... worthless.
I'm sure that as rounds go by and results (hopefully) offer upsets and great finishes, we'll forget about this first round. First rounds are rarely remembered anyway -- except for their upsets and wild finishes.
Which is precisely why this first round -- for all of our lamentations Friday night and Saturday morning -- is so forgettable.
How's your bracket look?
Tournament Challenge: I'm in the 72nd percentile of the Daily Quickie Readers group. But I lost one Sweet 16 team (Creighton) and one Elite Eight team (Georgia Tech). This was NOT the year to take a flier on a few underdogs going long.
National Bracket: The collective wisdom of all fans' picks is outperforming 72 percent of all individual brackets. But here's something interesting: The two outright upsets that were predicted on the National Bracket -- Gonzaga and Georgia Tech -- didn't happen. Seems like the "collective wisdom" couldn't foresee that the first round would suck so badly.
See yesterday's Quickie post below for my picks and previews for today's games. Let's just say this: We BETTER get some upsets and/or fanstastic finishes.
Please.
-- D.S.
Worst. First Round. Ever.
No upsets. I steadfastly refuse to count 9-over-8 as an "upset," so we're left with two in the entire Tournament first round:
VCU over Duke, which will only grow in legend given its upset novelty.
Winthrop over Notre Dame, which nearly half of America saw coming, hardly qualifying it as a classic "upset."
No fantastic finishes. How pathetic (and/or symbolic) is it that VCU-Duke has to pull double-duty as both "best/only upset" and "best/only fantastic finish?" (Maybe VA Tech over Illinois on a 12-0 game-ending run, but that was less fantastic than ugly.)
This year's theme so far? Lame, predictable results.
And that is the worst possible thing to happen to the Tournament.
I guess it's testimony to the Tournament's history and legacy of upsets and wild finishes that a Tournament without them seems so... worthless.
I'm sure that as rounds go by and results (hopefully) offer upsets and great finishes, we'll forget about this first round. First rounds are rarely remembered anyway -- except for their upsets and wild finishes.
Which is precisely why this first round -- for all of our lamentations Friday night and Saturday morning -- is so forgettable.
How's your bracket look?
Tournament Challenge: I'm in the 72nd percentile of the Daily Quickie Readers group. But I lost one Sweet 16 team (Creighton) and one Elite Eight team (Georgia Tech). This was NOT the year to take a flier on a few underdogs going long.
National Bracket: The collective wisdom of all fans' picks is outperforming 72 percent of all individual brackets. But here's something interesting: The two outright upsets that were predicted on the National Bracket -- Gonzaga and Georgia Tech -- didn't happen. Seems like the "collective wisdom" couldn't foresee that the first round would suck so badly.
See yesterday's Quickie post below for my picks and previews for today's games. Let's just say this: We BETTER get some upsets and/or fanstastic finishes.
Please.
-- D.S.
Friday, March 16, 2007
NCAA Tournament Round 1 Day 2 Live-Blog
EVENING UPDATE 2: Well, what do you know! More games, more lame-ass, better-seed-winning results! This entire first round goes down as the Lamest Ever, and I'm not sure it's close. Let's review: One decent upset (VCU). One upset everyone saw coming (Winthrop). And that's it. So few that three 9 over 8 upsets suddenly seem to sound good as "upsets." All I can say is: We better see some seriously crazy results this weekend.
EVENING UPDATE 1: Why shouldn't we expect more of the same? Kansas? Texas? Southern Illinois? Florida? All expected winners. How sad that our hopes to salvage the day for an upset rests not with some fun mid-major but Illinois? A 12-seed is a 12-seed, I guess.
UPDATE 5: Ho-hum! 7 over 10? Another game, another "seed" win. (Looks like Creighton was a bit of a mid-major inflation, versus Nevada, a little less cachet but a little more winning.) Wisconsin wins. Oregon seems to have its game in hand after a slow start.
All I can say is that the second round better be (a) full of upsets and (b) full of close games, because we are one uneventful night set away from being the Lamest Tournament First-Round Ever.
UPDATE 4: Winthrop wins! And, yet, it figures in The Most Drama-Free Tournament First Round Ever that the one upset of the day would be the ONE upset that EVERYONE saw coming since, like, last March. And TAMU-CC looks like a one-half wonder. Damn.
UPDATE 3: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is about to save this Tournament from itself (VCU, notwithstanding). Oh, and I guess Winthrop was for real. Very real.
UPDATE 2: There's nothing quite as depressing as watching a long-shot team you picked for the Elite Eight start out a first-round game sucking, then battle back into it -- only to eff up the ending. (I suppose it could be worse: In the Sports Bog "Celebrity" Pool, Ken "KenPom" Pomeroy had GT going to his Final Four.)
UPDATE: As long as UVA loses on Sunday, picking Albany was worth what seemed like a decent risk at the time. Now, all I need is GA Tech to continue their mini-surge to avoid becoming GACK Tech. (Yes, I know they weren't the favorites. Uh, except in the National Bracket.)
ORIGINAL POST: I can't believe that I'm going to go from the lofty heights of a great Day 1 to bottoming-out on my bracket when Georgia Tech poops the bed vs. UNLV. (I have Tech to the Elite Eight. I can already feel the hindsight bubbling up, like a belch: WHAT WAS I THINKING?)
Picking Albany over UVA? Worth the risk, given that I have the winner of the game losing in Round 2 anyway. (But UVA looks damn good. Almost as much as Albany looks weak.)
Besides, right now I am focusing all my energy rooting for North Texas over Memphis. Might I have been one year (and one seed) off on my pick of Memphis being upset in the first-round?
-- D.S.
Not Tournament-related, but new: My season preview of the Nationals is up at Deadspin. Check it out!
It's notable because it represents the second team I have adopted -- in a major sport, no less -- because it was available to me to write as a Deadspin preview and because I previously didn't have a strong allegiance in the sport. Shallow? Yes. Awesome? Yes.
Oh, and here's the Nats preview from The Dugout. You shame me, gents.
EVENING UPDATE 1: Why shouldn't we expect more of the same? Kansas? Texas? Southern Illinois? Florida? All expected winners. How sad that our hopes to salvage the day for an upset rests not with some fun mid-major but Illinois? A 12-seed is a 12-seed, I guess.
UPDATE 5: Ho-hum! 7 over 10? Another game, another "seed" win. (Looks like Creighton was a bit of a mid-major inflation, versus Nevada, a little less cachet but a little more winning.) Wisconsin wins. Oregon seems to have its game in hand after a slow start.
All I can say is that the second round better be (a) full of upsets and (b) full of close games, because we are one uneventful night set away from being the Lamest Tournament First-Round Ever.
UPDATE 4: Winthrop wins! And, yet, it figures in The Most Drama-Free Tournament First Round Ever that the one upset of the day would be the ONE upset that EVERYONE saw coming since, like, last March. And TAMU-CC looks like a one-half wonder. Damn.
UPDATE 3: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is about to save this Tournament from itself (VCU, notwithstanding). Oh, and I guess Winthrop was for real. Very real.
UPDATE 2: There's nothing quite as depressing as watching a long-shot team you picked for the Elite Eight start out a first-round game sucking, then battle back into it -- only to eff up the ending. (I suppose it could be worse: In the Sports Bog "Celebrity" Pool, Ken "KenPom" Pomeroy had GT going to his Final Four.)
UPDATE: As long as UVA loses on Sunday, picking Albany was worth what seemed like a decent risk at the time. Now, all I need is GA Tech to continue their mini-surge to avoid becoming GACK Tech. (Yes, I know they weren't the favorites. Uh, except in the National Bracket.)
ORIGINAL POST: I can't believe that I'm going to go from the lofty heights of a great Day 1 to bottoming-out on my bracket when Georgia Tech poops the bed vs. UNLV. (I have Tech to the Elite Eight. I can already feel the hindsight bubbling up, like a belch: WHAT WAS I THINKING?)
Picking Albany over UVA? Worth the risk, given that I have the winner of the game losing in Round 2 anyway. (But UVA looks damn good. Almost as much as Albany looks weak.)
Besides, right now I am focusing all my energy rooting for North Texas over Memphis. Might I have been one year (and one seed) off on my pick of Memphis being upset in the first-round?
-- D.S.
Not Tournament-related, but new: My season preview of the Nationals is up at Deadspin. Check it out!
It's notable because it represents the second team I have adopted -- in a major sport, no less -- because it was available to me to write as a Deadspin preview and because I previously didn't have a strong allegiance in the sport. Shallow? Yes. Awesome? Yes.
Oh, and here's the Nats preview from The Dugout. You shame me, gents.
Friday 03/16 (Tourney) Quickie:
VCU Saves the Tournament!
There was one result – ONE – that could singlehandedly save yesterday's NCAA Tournament games from a legacy of being the least entertaining, dramatic or meaningful "Round 1-Day 1" that anyone could remember.
Duke losing to VCU in a nail-biter.
Thankyouverymuch. And, given that result, the consequence is that no one will really remember that the rest of the day was kind of a dud. They will just remember this:
Just that Duke lost.
To VCU...
On the Tournament's first day...
In the only real upset of the entire day...
Perhaps it is actually harder to hate Duke today: Maybe a team that is so mediocre just isn't worth the wrath? (Nahhh!)
God: It was so so SO sweet, wasn't it?
(Great related column: Will Leitch has a great essay about Duke losing to VCU in today's online edition of the New York Times. Subscription req'd.)
Next-Biggest Storyline: Other than that, yesterday's main storyline was the utter lack of drama and/or upsets (before VCU/Duke. Xavier/BYU, as an 8-9 game most people didn't care about, doesn't really qualify).
The Tournament has built itself on either (a) upsets or (b) fantastic finishes. Outside of VCU/Duke, there weren't really any. This is bad – very bad – for the Tournament.
The good news is that if the Tournament, statistically, HAS to have SOME upsets or great finishes, we're due today for at least a couple, aren't we?
How about, say, a 13-seed Albany over a 4-seed UVA followed by a Georgia Tech over a UNLV to start the day, with maybe a Winthrop over a Notre Dame and Creighton over Nevada in the late-afternoon set.
Too much to ask? I say we're entitled. (And, um, my bracket's future sort of depends on it.)
Bracket Update: OK, so who ELSE had VCU beating Duke? How does everyone's brackets look today, halfway through the first round?
I went 14-2, missing Indiana and Xavier. I had Gonzaga and BYU losing in the next round anyway, so they aren't bracket-killing mistakes.
Embittered Hindsights:
(1) Xavier is such a clutch Tournament team, I should have never doubted them
(2)
Tournament Challenge Update: In the "Daily Quickie Readers" group a grand total of SEVEN people (out of nearly 1500!) got all 16 games right yesterday.
Everyone else's chances of having the mythical "Perfect Bracket" were obliterated within the Tournament's first 16 games.
National Bracket Update: If you used the "National Bracket" to make your picks, you would have gone 13-3.
Consider that, if you didn't do that well. (Of course, the N.B. will ALWAYS look better on a day with few upsets.)
The N.B.'s biggest misses was calling the Gonzaga upset outright and, to a lesser extent,
But in Dan Steinberg's DC Sports Bog "Celebrity" Pool, I'm tied for second, behind Steinberg himself. Doesn't he know that it's totally uncool to be winning your own pool? Here's a link.
Quickie-style recap of yesterday's results:
Indiana
Zags' mystique nearly as eroded as Duke's
UNC d.
Compare to how other 1-seeds dominated.
Xavier d. BYU
Drew Lavender: The new Earl Boykins?
Pitt d.
Happy to draw VCU over Duke? Or worse off?
UCLA d.
Just tracking Collison's ankle (looks good!)
As ugly as we thought it'd be
Oden/Conley end Tourney virginity
VCU d. Duke
See post below. HAHAHAHAHAHA!
Afternoon Games:
Vandy d. GW
Surprisingly easily, wouldn't you say?
Texas A&M d. Penn
Trendy Aggies scared early, revved late
G'town d.
Hoyas' size was too much
Bulldogs' late shooting pulls away
Wazzu d. Oral
Wazzu better than you thought, aren't they?
Click here for my late-afternoon live-blog.
L'ville d. Stanford
Cardinal were an embarrassment to at-larges
BC d.
Another early-round KO for Knight
Looking ready for a run to the Sweet 16?
Click here for my early-afternoon live-blog.
Quickie-style preview of today's games:
(My picks to win are listed)
13
10
Pool-wreck Potential! I have Tech to 8.
2
Another lightweight win for Tigers.
11
This is THE trendy upset pick of Round 1.
5
12-over-5? No: Vols love LBS style of play.
2
Too much banging by the Badgers.
10 Creighton over 7
Another trendy upset pick for Round 1
DREADED 5 PM GAME:
3
Wazzu set it up: Pac-10 looks good!
NIGHT SET:
1
Self ready to end KU's Round 1 Kurse?
5 VA Tech over 12
8
Will confirm it's a good Round 1 for Pac-10
4
Adjust your MMOD screen to "Durant Channel."
9 Villanova over 8
Nova's Reynolds is a big-conference S. Curry.
4
Salukis in rare position of heavy favorite.
1
If Gators lose, don't look for me for a while.
5 USC over 12
Pac-10's Round 1 dominance capped off.
Worth a quick look: Saturday's Round 2:
4 Maryland vs. 5 Butler
Terps: Good inconsistent? Or bad?
(Pick: Maryland)
3 Pitt vs. 11 VCU
How can you NOT root for VCU?
(Pick: VCU)
2 UCLA vs. 7 Indiana
Road finally catches up with Hoosiers.
(Pick: UCLA)
1 UNC vs. 9 Michigan St
Closer than you'll think.
(Pick: UNC)
3 Washington St vs. 6 Vandy
How good did Wazzu look?
(Pick: Wash. St.)
2 Georgetown vs. 7 BC
Old Big East rivals. Where's John Bagley?
(Pick: G'town)
1 Ohio State vs. 9 Xavier
Thad Matta's old school, players
(Pick: Ohio State, but close!)
3 Texas A&M vs. 6 Louisville
Cards ain't playing Cardinal anymore
(Pick: A&M)
Wait: There's other stuff to talk about in sports?
NBA fines Phil Jax $50K for "witch hunt" comment. Pocket change.
MLB: Sammy Sosa will be on the Rangers' 40-man roster. Victory!
NFL: Tank Johnson gets 4-months in prison. Cellblock D's Intramural Football Team – reigning Oz champs! – gets a boost!
Obit:
Finally: If you read one non-Tournament-related thing today, make it this amazing post from WithLeather's Matt Ufford about a night out with John Amaechi.
-- D.S.
Thursday, March 15, 2007
YYYYYEEEEESSSSS!!! DUKE LOSES TO VCU!
Have you EVER been more happy about a first-round NCAA Tournament result??!?!?
I haven't.
(And I called it.)
But that is SO much less important than Duke losing. And it was SOOOOO sweet. VCU was incredible. Who else just KNEW this was one of "those" games that Duke ALWAYS wins.
NOT TONIGHT!!!
I'm flipping out. I'm giddy.
(And how sweet -- HOW SWEET -- is it that on a day of games where EVERY favorite won, Duke lost. Just the icing on the top.)
HAHAHAHAHAHA!
I haven't.
(And I called it.)
But that is SO much less important than Duke losing. And it was SOOOOO sweet. VCU was incredible. Who else just KNEW this was one of "those" games that Duke ALWAYS wins.
NOT TONIGHT!!!
I'm flipping out. I'm giddy.
(And how sweet -- HOW SWEET -- is it that on a day of games where EVERY favorite won, Duke lost. Just the icing on the top.)
HAHAHAHAHAHA!
NCAA Tournament Day 1 Live-Blog RECAP
Late-afternoon games.
Early-afternoon games.
Tons of fun to do. Didn't hurt I went 8-0. But picking all favorites (which was the way to 8-0 today) isn't a good long-term strategy.
Tonight: Looking for upsets and/or wild finishes. Any. Please.
UPDATE: Damn you, Duke. Damn you. (If you're wondering why I'm cursing them, my "bold" pick of the bracket was VCU over Duke en route to the Sweet 16. Crap.)
Early-afternoon games.
Tons of fun to do. Didn't hurt I went 8-0. But picking all favorites (which was the way to 8-0 today) isn't a good long-term strategy.
Tonight: Looking for upsets and/or wild finishes. Any. Please.
UPDATE: Damn you, Duke. Damn you. (If you're wondering why I'm cursing them, my "bold" pick of the bracket was VCU over Duke en route to the Sweet 16. Crap.)
Thursday 03/15 Quickie:
Tournament, Day 1. 'Nuff Said.
It's Day 1 of the NCAA Tournament! It is, arguably (or, actually, no argument) the greatest day of the sports year.
Starting at around noon ET, you can find me over at Deadspin, where I'll be all afternoon, live-blogging all of the day's games. Should be a ton of fun, so be sure to drop by and check it out.
(For a taste from the way-back machine, check out my ESPN.com live-blog of Tourney Day 1 from 2003.)
Quick relevant reminiscence: 10 years ago this week (cripes: 10 years?), I was the college basketball editor at ESPN.com. And today was IT: Probably my finest moment on the job.
I knew that ESPN.com would be the key source for millions of fans across the country stuck at work during the first round's afternoon games. (Remember obsessively hitting "refresh" on the ESPN.com scoreboard pages to track games?)
I decided that the key to my coverage strategy would be to update the front-page lead "top story" blurb as often as humanly possible. (Consider this was more than a half-decade before the word "live-blog" was even conceived.)
My recollection is that I averaged a fresh top-story blurb every 8-10 minutes, reflecting the latest momentum moves and storyline shifts. (Somewhere buried in my file cabinet, I have every single one of those blurbs printed out.)
An hyper-enthusiastic 24-year-old, I thought that my efforts appropriately matched the spirit and intensity of the day for fans. (That day, as I believe it has every year since on the first day of the NCAA Tournament, the site set its new one-day traffic record.)
You would have never known it was me behind the scenes, managing the coverage and obsessively flipping those top stories over (and over... and over...), but I was there, having the time of my life.
Including the greatest ESPN.com front page headline never to see the light of day: When 15-seed Coppin State beat 2-seed South Carolina, the concept on the table was:
Coppin a Feel:
Cocks Go Limp
Without hyperbole:
Greatest. Headline. Ever.
Shout-outs to current ESPN.com college basketball editor Andy Glockner, who will be running the show today, and to friends like Executive Editor Kevin Jackson and Page 2 editor David Schoenfield, both my beat-editing colleagues at the time, who were in on the all-hands-on-deck coverage team then -- as they probably are now. Fans remain in phenomenal hands.
Meanwhile, 10 years later, I am reviving that new-comment-every-few-minutes role – not on ESPN.com, but on the leading sports blog.
That 24-year-old Dan -- a limitless ESPN.com career ahead of him -- could never have possibly imagined how things would work out over the following 10 years. (Indeed: I'm sure he would have yelped, "34? What could THAT fogey know?" Ahh, arrogance of youth...)
But I think that Dan would have been excited to know that the first afternoon of the NCAA Tournament remains his most thrilling moment of the sports year. (Sorry for the 3rd-person reference.)
So I have no other editorial message today besides this: Enjoy it.
LAST CHANCE! Sign up NOW for the "Daily Quickie Readers" group of ESPN.com's Tournament Challenge. Come on: You KNOW you have an entry or two left!
By the way, I don't know if this stat is accurate, but DS.com commenter GuyInTheCorner claims that there are only three ESPN.com Tournament Challenge groups that have more than 1,000 entrants: Mike and Mike's, Deadspin's and "Daily Quickie Readers." For that, I heartily and sincerely thank you.
(As impressive as last year's largest-in-the-country 10,000-person pool group was, this year's total 1,300 – and counting! – is arguably more impressive, because I don't have my ESPN.com platform to drive entries, just this blog. So THANK YOU!)
Meanwhile, just in time for today's Tournament tip-off, Deadspin wrapped up its team-by-team coverage with my preview of
Previewing Today's Afternoon Games:
4
Inconsistent Terps should worry you.
7 BC over 10
I can't buy BK in the Tourney.
6 L'ville over 11 Stanford
Like Clerks, Cardinal shouldn't even be here today.
Remember when I picked 16 ORU over 1
5
Complete toss-up.
2 G'town over 15
How strong will trendy Hoyas look?
3
A nation of bandwagoneers holds it breath.
6 Vandy over 11 G.
The annual 5 p.m. ET game no one ever sees!
More Sports News:
NBA: Mavs-Suns. I had a very hard time getting too fired up for Mavs-Suns last night. Not just because the NCAA Tournament starts today, but because in the grand scheme of things, a regular-season NBA game – no matter who is playing in it – is meaningless. It's even MORE meaningless between top contenders. Does last night's result provide any indication of what will happen in the postseason if/when they meet again? No. Oh, and the Spurs are winning the West. So, really, when does Maryland-Davidson start? Give me one-game, win-or-bust playoff formats any day.
However, all that said: The Suns winning in
NBA Whining: Phil Jackson says Kobe Bryant is the subject of a "witch hunt" by the NBA? Oh for crying out loud... literally.
NFL: No. 21 in this newly redesigned jersey will be a Top 3 seller among NFL fans.
MLB: Gary Matthews denies taking HGH. Well, of COURSE he does. And short of anyone with proof he took it, it's all speculation, at best.
Meanwhile, the Albany DA will provide the names of all athletes involved in the recent PED bust to MLB. Intriguing! How fast before THOSE are leaked? Meanwhile, the NFL says they don't want to know. (Kidding: But, really, you know I'm not...)
Reptiles at spring training: I have heard that the movie sequel will be called "Snakes in a Press Box." The YouTube parody video writes itself.
But, seriously, are you paying attention to anything else in sports besides the Tournament? No. So here we go!
-- D.S.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
The "National Bracket": An Analysis
Of The Wisdom of the Fan Crowd
Click here (or scroll down) for today's Quickie ("Defining Choices")
And be sure to check out my fun pre-Tourney conversation with Peter Bean from Burnt Orange Nation: Part 1 is here and Part 2 is here. Cross-blog mash-up!
On to a very intriguing post:
The National Bracket: It's one of my NCAA Tournament obsessions. As a "Wisdom of Crowds" tool, this aggregate look at the combined picks of every fan entering ESPN.com's Tournament Challenge is a phenomenal peek into the collective wisdom of the fans.
10 Gonzaga over 7
Round 2:
5
In Round 1, there is one intriguing virtual tie:
10
And in the Sweet 16, there is one virtual tie:
3
But usually, the "wisdom" is more subtle: Merely a NOTABLE percentage of fans see something in an underdog -- matchups that are close enough to flag as a significant portion of the "crowd" spotting a potential upset. (For the purposes of my analysis, if the underdog is within 30 percentage points of the favorite, it's worth noting.) Ones to watch:
Old Dominion (36.5) vs.
G.
Notably outside the +/- 30% range:
Creighton (32.7) vs.
VCU (24.4) vs. Duke (75.6)
Sweet 16: Now THIS is fascinating. Of the 8 Sweet 16 games, besides the 50/50 Memphis-Texas A&M game, only ONE has the underdog within even 20 percentage points of the favorite:
The theme continues in the Elite Eight: Of the four games,
...UNC is less than THREE percentage points ahead of
In the Final Four,
The final is predictably tight:
As it should be.
As a P.S., it will be interesting to see if that vote total -- or any along the way -- change in the final 24 hours before the brackets lock and the games begin.
PS: On the opposite end of the "wisdom of crowds," FanIQ has the breakdown of all of the various "expert" picks for your comparison. Please keep "expert" in quotes.
Wednesday 03/14 A.M. Quickie:
"Defining Choices" of an NCAA Bracket
Today's Extra-Special Highlight: DanShanoff.com-BurntOrangeNation mash-up NCAA Tournament spectacular! Scroll down below this post for the first half of my Tournament-obsessed email exchange with Peter Bean. Then, check back on Burnt Orange Nation early this afternoon for Part 2! (Yeah, it's long, but what else are you doing today besides similarly obsessing about the brackets?)
On to today's Quickie:
It is the Question(s) of the Day:
"How's your
"How's your
"How's your
"How's your
"How's your
"How's your
"How's your
"How's your
With less than a day before the Tournament begins, everything is focused on the brackets. YOUR brackets. Your friends' brackets. The experts' brackets. Maybe even my brackets.
Yesterday, my picks were unveiled to a Wall Street Journal Online audience. (Did you see them? Here's a link.)
My Final Four:
Biggest Risk, Round 1:
VCU over Duke
Winthrop over Notre Dame
Biggest Risk, Round 2:
Georgia Tech over
VCU over Pitt
Creighton over
Biggest Risk, Sweet 16:
Georgia Tech over
Southern Illinois over
Biggest Risk, Elite Eight:
Other than that, I'm fairly conventional.
So I've put my pool fortunes behind five "Defining Choices":
(1) A VCU team I'm picking mostly because they're opening with Duke and I'm suckered in by the "this year's George Mason" question (when I should be focusing on the oft-cited Quickie foundation of the "regress-to-the-mean" principle).
(2) A Georgia Tech team I'm picking mostly because I had them in the Final Four in my PRESEASON picks.
(3) I've got So.
(4) I've got
(5) And I'm behind
There you have it: Five defining choices that will make (or, more likely, break) my bracket.
So: What were YOUR bracket's Defining Choices?
DON'T FORGET TO SIGN UP FOR THE "DAILY QUICKIE READERS" GROUP OF THE ESPN.COM TOURNAMENT CHALLENGE! (And don't forget to scroll down for the Shanoff-BurntOrangeNation mash-up, Part 1!)
By the Wednesday before the NCAA Tournament, the rest of the sports world is either temporarily irrelevant or simply ignored. Still...
NBA: Bernie Bickerstaff is headed out as coach of the Bobcats, per Michael Jordan's edict. So: Who will MJ pick to replace him? A few guesses: (1) Billy Donovan, (2) Doug Collins, (3) Larry Brown, (4) Anyone else with UNC ties, (5) Um... Leonard Hamilton?
MLB: Sammy Sosa racks up two more hits. Hilarious. You HAVE to root for him, don't you?
File-it-away Quote of the Day: "I want to 100 percent stay in
NFL: This Lance Briggs thing – are you with him or would you rather have him STFU? Seems to me that slapping him with the "Franchise" tag is within the Bears' rights, whether he likes it or not. Play the one year, then walk away, if he feels so strongly about it.
DON'T FORGET TO SIGN UP FOR THE "DAILY QUICKIE READERS" GROUP OF THE ESPN.COM TOURNAMENT CHALLENGE!
(And don't forget to scroll down and keep reading for the Shanoff-BurntOrangeNation mash-up, Part 1!)
-- D.S.
DS.com-BurntOrangeNation Mash-Up:
Dan Shanoff and Peter Bean Talk Tourney
The following is the first half of an exchange between me and Peter Bean of the most excellent blog, Burnt Orange Nation. It began as a simple, friendly email exchange and turned into a post-worthy discussion of the brackets that we both thought our readers would enjoy. Check back on Burnt Orange Nation later today for the thrilling second half!
Peter Bean: Let's just get right into this, Dan. Start us off with your general thoughts on the Madness. Any ill will toward the committee for snubs or seeding issues? Any ill will toward the committee as an entity in general? Thoughts on how things played out this year?
Dan Shanoff: I'm with you: The East is brutal, and that's entirely due to the Top 4 seeds. The 1-seed, 2-seed and 4-seed are arguably the strongest team of their seed line. And the 3-seed (Washington State) is no less than the second-best of their seed line. This is ludicrous.
Okay, I'll admit it: the Aggies are -very- good this year. So good, in fact, that I think they've got the best shot to win the South Regional. They'll have no trouble muscling Penn out of the tournament, they're too physical and disciplined to get trapped by Louisville (even in Lexington), and then they'll head to San Antonio where an army of farmers will be whooping like the crazy people that they are.
Dan Shanoff: In short: Yes. Despite the arguments for A&M (most persuasively, the geographic advantages of the regional), it is being totally overlooked that, at least according to the "rankings," Ohio State is the best team in the country.
I have to admit that I'm biased against the Buckeyes: As a Florida fan, I watched Ohio State lose by 26 in Gainesville. Yes, Oden was barely back from his early-season injury, but he was eaten alive by the Gators big men. Oden has gotten better, sure, but so has everyone else since mid-December.
It won't help that they play in the deliberate Big Ten. I'm intrigued to see Ohio State play a team like Tennessee, which is small but fast. Florida has the best and deepest frontcourt in the nation, and Tennessee completely took them out of the game. Also, much like Texas or UNC or Kansas, you have to wonder what the Ohio State frosh will do in their first go-round of the NCAA Tournament... those unexpectedly close early-round games or the pressure of being down late -- especially when you're the 1-seed. Insane pressure. But -- and this is a seven-foot "but" -- it always helps to have the best freshman center since Patrick Ewing. Remember him? Had a pretty good freshman year, if I remember correctly.
You know: There's a reason why you're a great person to talk this over with. I think the Big 12 has the unique chance to pull a "Big East '85" and put three teams in the Final Four. There's Texas. There's A&M. And then there's Kansas, which as the Big 12's only 1-seed, has technically been given the best shot at making the Final Four of anyone from the conference.
So: Looking out West, is it KU's to lose? Given their Tournament performances the past few years, I personally find it hard to give them credit as a team that can string together four wins in a row -- particularly when they couldn't even put together ONE in a row as recently as last March. How do you size up Kansas' chances as compared to their top competition in the region? How does one beat the Jayhawks in the Tournament (besides, one might snarkily suggest, simply showing up) and do any teams match up favorably to derail KU's Final Four expecations?
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Tuesday 03/13 A.M. Quickie:
How Can You NOT Love the Play-In?
Today's Lead: How to make the NCAA Play-In Game sexier:
Oh, I'll 'fess up willingly: I love the NCAA Play-In Game. But I'm finding it hard to articulate why. Maybe it's the utter futility of it:
How the two teams have the ignominy of SHARING a line in the printed bracket. Or how the losing team doesn't even get the thrill of playing on the first day of the Tournament.
Or how the game isn't included in bracket office-pools, even though it could be a total-point difference-maker!
I'm such a fan of the Play-In, I've even put in the thought to figure out a few suggestions of how to improve it -- to make it sexier, if you will:
(1) Stop playing it in
(Update: Already, I have heard from many fans in Dayton. I didn't mean to dis your town. I respect and appreciate your passion, particularly your warm and generous hosting of the Play-In game.)
(2) Give the Play-In loser an automatic bid (and home game) in the NIT. Seed 31 NIT teams but leave a slot open for the NCAA Play-In loser. Give them a chance to get more pub (and gate receipts) than the Play-In.
(3) Insist the Play-In be included as the annual NCAA Tournament bracket office-pool. The major stumbling blocks have been (a) pool organizers want to allow for as much time as possible for people to submit brackets, and (b) who cares: the Play-In winner has zero chance of beating a 1-seed. But it would get the pool-scoring off to a fast start and get people talking. "I'm winning my pool: 1 point!" Yeah, that means you have to turn in your sheet by end-of-business Tuesday, but admit it: Your bracket was finished Monday morning anyway.
Update (4): Several readers/emailers/commenters have thrown out a way to make the Play-In game truly spectacular: Make all four 16-seeds a Play-In. That increases the at-large bids by three more teams (which should make Drexel, Syracuse and Air Force fans happy) and turns the 16-seed into a much more interesting drama.
(And don't even think about arguing about the classic "integrity" of the 64-team bracket. They were happy enough to change -- and fans willing enough to accept -- going from "64" to "65." So, really, what's so bastardized about "68?")
Mock if you want. I'll be following the game.
Speaking of which, the game tonight: FAMU? Hell, they only have the best band in the country.
In case you missed it: I had a column in the Wall Street Journal Online breaking down the Tournament.
And WOW: Today, there's even a follow-up column unveiling my bracket picks. Here it is. Read it! Read it now! Pass it around!Oh, I cannot wait for your dissection of my idiocy. (I'll have a full discussion of my picks tomorrow.)
"Expert" picks: Needless to say, I'm a little disappointed that my "inspired" Final Four of Florida, UCLA, Texas A&M and Georgetown seems to be the hot pick for many others: Andy Katz, Michael Wilbon, NYT's Pete Thamel, DC Sports Bog's Dan Steinberg. Damn, it's hard to be a novelty act these days!
And, always an annual favorite, Deadspin has started rolling out its team-by-team previews, each with a different specialist author. When he finally gets to the Gators preview, you might just see a familiar name. (No, not "Joakim." D'oh!)
Women's Selection Monday: What does it say that the only team that moves the needle among casual (non) women's hoops fans is seeing where LSU was seeded and then saying, "So how 'bout that Pokey?"
(I'm sympathetic to picking
Player to watch? And I truly mean: WATCH this player – Courtney Paris from
Meanwhile, where is the NIT Bracket Challenge? Online or offline, I don't care. Now that the NIT is a bracket-friendly 32 teams, I want my damn pool. (BTW: Does anyone know the names of the teams snubbed by the NIT?)
Tournament Challenge Sign-Up: Don't forget to sign up for the "Daily Quickie Readers" group of the ESPN.com Tournament Challenge. Come on: You get FIVE entries. You're telling me this can't be one of 'em?
NBA: Mavs win streak ends at 17 after being thumped by the Warriors. Plus: Leandro Barbosa hits career-high 32 for 2nd time in 3 games.
NFL: Moss to Packers rumors heat up! Favre-to-Moss = Hilarious.
NHL: Great Evgeny's ghost! The Penguins will be staying in
Last thought: Is there any exercise more worthless than voting in the college hoops Top 25 ranking that comes out the day after Selection Sunday?
-- D.S.
Monday, March 12, 2007
Monday 03/12 A.M. Quickie:
Break Out Your Brackets
Biggest item: Don't forget to enter your bracket in the "Daily Quickie Readers" group of ESPN.com's Tournament Challenge!
UPDATE: Here is a column I did for today's Wall Street Journal Online. It's an overview of the Tournament field, key storylines, etc. Really fun to put together.Now, all sorts of random day-after thoughts about the NCAA Tournament bracket...
Toughest Bracket: East, no question. UNC at the top.
This Year's George Mason: The bandwagon behind
Top 5 Toughest First-Round Games to Pick:
1. Creighton-Nevada (South)
2. UNLV-GA Tech (
3. Butler-Old Dominion (
4. BC-Texas Tech (East)
5. BYU-Xavier (South)
Bubble Screw-Jobs: Count me among those who think Drexel got screwed. I'm less sympathetic toward
Five Upset Specials:
1. Georgia Tech over UNLV (And here is a classic example of where my pre-existing bias is going to derail my pool. You just know I'm going to go long on Tech just because I picked them for the Final Four in the preseason -- and watch them lose to UNLV in the first round en route to a Rebels trip to the Sweet 16. Just watch.)
5.
(Wow, am I down on the ACC or what?)
In-My-Gut Final Four (Subject to Change):
(Just saw: Same 4 as Wilbon. Same first 3 as Tony K. So much for unconventional. Update: AND I have the same Final Four as Andy Katz. Oh, and the NYT's Pete Thamel. Yeesh: I'm in so much trouble...)
Beat the Experts: The terrific site FanIQ is MADE for this event. They'll be tracking all of the "expert" picks, but -- more important -- allowing you to compete against them. All of them. In one place. Now THAT is what the Web was made for. Check out this link.
Full bracket picks coming soon.
Wait: There's other stuff in sports today besides the brackets?
NIT: Who's with me on an office pool? I got Drexel!
CBB: "Tubby's our basketball coach," the Kentucky AD said, in what can only be presumed as the least convincing vote of confidence of the year.
NBA: Mavs win 17th straight. When do the playoffs start again?
NBA: Isiah gets an extension. He's an easy target but he out-performed Larry Brown and, amazingly, has the Knicks in contention for a playoff spot.
NFL: Stallworth to Pats. Between him and Welker, an upgrade at WR.
Media: Emmitt Smith is joining ESPN as an NFL analyst. And, one presumes, resident expert on all things ballroom dance.
MLB: Matsuzaka allows 4R (4 IP), including 2 HR to non-roster players.
NHL: Chris Simon suspended for rest of season. Good.
Tennis: Federer 41-match win streak ends: Zzz...
Back to my bracket...-- D.S.
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Selection Sunday: It Is SO On
Full coverage tomorrow (in a new post), but if you feel like discussing tonight with the 10 people who are poking around the sports-blog world, have at it. Oh, and this: Gators. -- D.S.
Sunday 3/11 Quickie:
Selection Day!
It's Selection Sunday, and forget seedings: The most important things to watch for are (a) specific matchups and (b) geography. (Who wouldn't rather be a 3-seed playing in a region close to home than a 2-seed shipped a few time zones away?)
Buzzer-Beaters 1: Miami (Ohio)'s buzzer-beating 3 to come from behind and win the MAC tourney title and put themselves in the NCAA Tournament is the reason we all watch countless hours of Championship Week coverage.
Buzzer-Beater 2: FAMU's win was, too, except that was on ESPNU, to the only time most fans probably saw it was on replay. Only slightly less thrilling, but a heart-stopper nonetheless.
Final thoughts:
I'm all for an ACC result that makes the regular season comically meaningless. An NC State win will absolutely bump a Bubble team. And how can you not root for Sidney Lowe in that jacket?
The winner of Ohio State-Wisconsin deserves a 1-seed. The loser deserves a 2. But since the conference times their tournament final until the very final minutes before the bracket comes out, both will probably get 1-seeds. (Consider it a karma payback for scheduing the Ohio State-Michigan football game two weeks before the SEC title game.)
If
UNLV's win over BYU (plus their Top 10 RPI) should make the Rebels a hot Sweet 16 pick.
It all depends on matchups, though. And we'll find those out soon enough.
-- D.S.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Saturday 03/10 Quickie:
Champ Week Showdowns
Saturday: Few Bubble implications left as big-time conference tourneys reach their semis and finals. Lots of seed jockeying, with the 1-seeds still up in the air. Or at least they SHOULD be. (Again: Not that getting a 1-seed matters.)
ACC: OK, so maybe UVA was a wee bit overrated, but let's credit NC State for being uber-motivated. This IS their NCAA Tournament.
Big East: G'town-Pitt should be for a No. 1 seed. More likely, the winner gets a 2 and the loser gets a 3.
Big Ten:
Big 12: What did I say? As long as
Pac-10: So much for my Wazzu love. If you haven't watched a lot of West Coast hoops this season, this USC-Oregon title game is a must-see.
SEC: Of the four teams in the semis,
A-10: That's one more Bubble team that's hurting, now that the A-10's only legit NCAA team, Xavier, was bounced and will be an at-large bid.
Mountain West: UNLV-BYU should be for a 2-seed, but the winner likely locks into a 3-seed. Still, if you don't want to be freaked out when you see these teams on your bracket tomorrow night, keep an eye on this game.
WAC: I hope we can all finally agree that
Top 5 Games of the Day, Ranked:
(1) G'town-Pitt
(3) USC-Oregon
(5) UNC-BC
More:
Rhodes to the "Rhaiders": Didn't
Droughns to the Giants: I'd like to know when Tiki is going to interview him on the Today show.
Chris Simon suspended indefinitely: Well, no shit.
Sixers win 6th straight: Maybe they found out that Kevin Durant won't be coming out this year, so they can afford to blow their Lottery shot.
-- D.S.
Friday, March 09, 2007
Friday 03/09 A.M. Quickie:
Champ Week Upsets?!?! Meh.
Could there be a method to the madness of UCLA's pre-Tournament mess? Better question: SHOULD there be?
A presumptive NCAA Tournament 1-seed, the Bruins' quarterfinal loss to
But since when has a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament (versus a 2-seed or a 3-seed) ever guaranteed anything? I've hammered this for weeks: Seeding is irrelevant; matchups are all.
However, here IS a guarantee: By losing, UCLA will NOT have to play two more games over the next two days.
Is there a correlation between mileage logged in a conference tournament and NCAA Tournament success? (Or, alternatively, is there a correlation between momentum gained during a deep conference-tourney run and NCAA Tournament success?)
I suspect not, and the most obvious evidence is that, each year, half-a-dozen big-league conference tournament champs do NOT win the NCAA title. And at least 11 of the 12 top-seeded teams in the NCAA Tournament (if not all 12) do not win the NCAA title.
Given UCLA's secure status as, at worst, a 2-seed, they might as well concentrate on the only tournament title that matters: The NCAA title.
(Feel free to make the leap based on what I'm saying: If I'm a fan of a team with a 1-, 2- or 3-seed, I could take it or leave it whether I win my conference tournament title. Who cares? NCAA title or bust.)
Meanwhile, how intriguing is Duke's seeding status? After losing in the first round (FIRST round!) of the ACC Tournament, I can't believe the Dukies will pull a Top 4-seeding. (More intriguing: How quickly they'll flame out. Who's got "first weekend" in the over/under?)
So where DO you seed Duke: 5? 6? 7? I'm rooting for them to pull the dreaded 5-seed or pull the 6-seed and get 11-seed VCU in the first round or pull a 7-seed and get 10-seed
The natural follow-up question is whether the Selection Committee will factor in the absence of suspended Duke stud Gerald Henderson?
If they're not going to take into consideration EVERY time any team had any player missing – or even not playing at full strength due to injury – they shouldn't factor in
Women's College Hoops: Pokey Chatman Resigns. I love all of the euphemisms and vague descriptions being thrown around by mainstream media, all trying to either write around the fact that Chatman had a romantic relationship with a player. (While the player was still in school? After they left? Rumor is that the player was still in school.) How much of this vague-speak has to do with the fact that it would have been a gay relationship and mainstream sports media is absolutely, fundamentally and embarassingly incapable of handling that?
Let's provide a helpful reminder: A coach should never have a romantic relationship with a player. Man, woman. Straight, gay. Doesn't matter. Never. Sexuality isn't the issue here; power is.
More March Madness:
Big East:
ACC: What the hell happened to
Meanwhile, did
SEC: After knocking off
Big 12: Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Kansas State-Texas Tech a virtual play-in game for an at-large bid? (If not, it should be.) CORRECTION: I have been told by my Big 12 spies that Tech is a lock. (Really? Even if they lose here?) However, K-State absolutely needs this win.
Meanwhile, I think Texas A&M is in for a hell of a game tonight against
Pac-10: Prediction: I think the
Mid-Majors: How huge of a blow would it be to
(What makes it more ridiculous is that he slipped on an on-court advertisement. I understand the conferences have to try to make money, but can't they keep the marketing messages from damaging the product?)
More MWC: Is UNLV a legit Final Four team? Someone with some MWC or UNLV knowledge please fill the rest of us in.
Stalking the Selection Committee? Awesome.
Update: This post is yet another reason why Pete Thamel and Co. are surging with their "Bracket" blog on NYTimes.com.
As we head into the final stretch before Selection Sunday, it's worth beginning to consider who your "It" team is. (But remember: It's all about the individual game matchups.)
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More of today's biggest storylines:
Tom Brady: From All-Pro to All-Preg! Um, is Gisele Bundschen pregnant with Tom Brady's baby? Between Bridget's and Bundschen's buns in the over, that's an awkward weekend visitation situation.
(For those of you who mocked me for calling Tom Brady the new Shawn Kemp, who's laughing now? You cannot possibly deny Brady's ascension to Kemp Status now.)
Meanwhile: I appreciate that Tom probably should spread his seed as far and wide as he possibly can (and I'm sure there's a line of ladies who would be interested), but he should consider either (a) condoms or (b) a vasectomy.
NFL: Willis McGahee traded to Ravens. Seems like a good upgrade for both McGahee (who will get a fat new deal) and Baltimore. What will the Bills do to fill McGahee's role? Word is that they're looking at Chris Brown or Dom Rhodes.
More: Rams sign TE Randy McMichael; Dolphins sign K Jay Feeley (Doesn't he understand leaving NYC will hurt his Tiki-wannabe TV career?)
NBA: Spurs win 11th straight. Everyone keeps talking about the Mavs as the team to beat. Or this being the Suns' year. Wait until the Spurs simply plod along and win yet another NBA title.
You will see every self-respecting all-sports or NBA blog pick this up: It's a hilarious parody of that Nike "Second Coming" TV ad. These guys deserve huge credit (as do We Are the Postmen for the find).
NHL: Chris Simon stick-as-weapon hit. I'm with Melrose: Suspend the guy for the rest of the season. That was assault. Isn't there a code among players that you just don't do that?
NHL: Why is it that the only time the NHL makes national news these days is for scandal? It seems their union honchos "pulled an HP" and tried to monitor players' emails. No wonder the players fired Goodenow.
MLB: Who had "March 8" in the "Mike Hampton Injury" Office Pool?
MLB PED Watch: Journeyman pitcher Darren Holmes the latest to be linked to this latest PED scandal. (Doesn't that affirm the Baseball Prospectus Theory that PEDs were mostly used by the talentless players at the margins?)
I also have a question: Is SI.com going to name these guys in dribs and drabs every other day? Are they sitting on a larger list and releasing it piecemeal simply to drive traffic to the Web site?
If you're staying offline all weekend (and with all the hoops to watch, I don't blame you), be sure to check back on Monday for a complete Bracket breakdown.
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