Friday, September 08, 2006

NFL Week 1 Preview/Picks:
Manning ManiaJust stop!

Week 1 Picks (home teams in caps), listed roughly in chronological order of game times:

Saints over BROWNS: Yes, I am suckered into believing that Reggie Bush will do something sick, leading the Saints to the win they deserve.

Seahawks over LIONS: Without the suspended Joe Cullen, how can Detroit possibly beat the defending NFC champs?

TITANS over Jets: I really do like Eric Mangini (if only for the cachet of his youth), but the Jets are going to S-T-I-N-K (Stink! Stink! Stink!) this season. (Too early to start the "Adrian Peterson Watch?" Never!)

Bengals over CHIEFS: The Chiefs D is improved, sure, but not enough to counter (a) Cincy's offense and (b) Herm Edwards' offense.

RAMS over Broncos: I don't buy into the love for the Rams this season, but I really want to see Jay Cutler starting for Denver. This helps.

PATS over Bills: Buffalo fans might be hoping for 5-6 wins, but this sure as hell won't be one of them.

I recommend checking out the Comments section on this particular post, where an interesting debate has broken out about the Bills' future -- particularly whether Brady Quinn is the answer. Or whether Quinn is destined for the Jets. And what impact Mangini's time with the Pats -- and Quinn's connection to the Belichick Family Mafia (via Charlie Weis) means to the debate. Oh, and why the Jets won't be taking him, no matter how much Weis lobbies Mangini. There's an obvious pick for the Jets next April, and you can find it under my comment. The answer is here...

BUCS over Ravens: Three words: Take. The. Under.

PANTHERS over Falcons: The Carolina bandwagon is so crowded that a season-opening loss at home to Atlanta might take out half the "expert" population.

Eagles over TEXANS: I really want to pick Houston here. I really want Mario Williams to have 3 sacks, and for Wali Lundy to make fans forget about Reggie Bush. But that just isn't going to happen.

Bears over PACKERS: Nothing will start the Favre farewell tour off right like losing at home in the opener to the team's biggest rival.

CARDS over 49ers: There's a reason that the Cards were rumored to have requested that the Niners were the team to open the Cards' new stadium.

JAGS over Cowboys: By far the most unpredictable game of the weekend. The Jags D is great, but if Mike Peterson is limited (and Stroud out completely), it's a toss-up. If they were considering suspending the DB, Williams, for his DUI, I think that's out the window now. (See how I didn't even mention what's-his-name from Dallas? I have an allergy.)

Colts over GIANTS: I finally figured out what the "Manning Bowl" is best used for. Retching into.

Monday picks coming... uh, Monday. (But to give you a clue, I'll be taking both road teams.)

(LW: N/A. Season: 0-1)

-- D.S.


CorrND said...

As a Bills fan, I'm hoping for far fewer than 5-6 wins. Please punch our ticket for the Brady Quinn lottery!

Anonymous said...

Brady Quinn, I dunno man... he's tough, decent arm.. good under pressure. He just doesnt feel like a NFL quarterback to me for some reason though, I cant put my finger on it.

Anonymous said...

Yes...take Brady Quinn. It would fit the Bills M.O. to overrate a player.

Pete said...

Corrnd- man that is a lame attitdue I am a Bills fan and am hoping for a 8-8 season. After last year's tank job 8-8 would be a substantial improvement and demonstrate that Marv and Dick have this team going in the right direction. Brady is not the end all be all answer (after all he may just be a product of his coach).

Jake C said...

Quinn would be the best idea ever for the Bills.

As for Monday night, guess I'm screwed as I took both road teams too.

Lastly, you have to least the Manning commercials are enjoyable.

Go Giants!

Anonymous said...

Just wanted to say I enjoy the hell out of your blog and I'm glad you put in as much effort as you do.

As for the UGA/SC prediction, I'll take my Dawgs in a close one. SC still doesn't have anywhere near the talent Georgia does, and their QB situation makes ours look calm and cool. JoeT inspires alot more confidence to winning on the road in the SEC (who went into Florida and easily could have pulled it out), than Stafford who looked great against Western Kentucky's 3rd string.

tem said...

Good blog...still too many posts, but hey that is far far better than the alternative.

Why would the Jets take Adrian Peterson? I would say they'd rather have a good QB (Quinn maybe) than another RB.

El Padrino said...

what no spreads?

sons of kc blog

Dan Shanoff said...

I love this Bills-Brady Quinn meme. First of all, the Bills should take Quinn not because he's the best QB in college football (he might be, but there's no question that he's a product of Weis' system...on the other hand, Weis has a wee bit of a track record developing QBs...I take that back: He developed Tom Brady. But that's probably enough.)

They should take Brady (Quinn) because he's the biggest combination of talent and "name" out there -- and the Bills need a poster guy for the franchise for the next decade as much as they need him to be the next Tom Brady. (Probably more so.)

Now, would the Jets take Brady Quinn? I have done a U-Turn on this: Is Mangini such a Belichick disciple that he'd take Quinn because Quinn is a product of the Belichick "family" (Weis)? You know that Weis would be lobbying Mangini to take him, esp. if it's No. 1 overall.

Or is Mangini the type of Belichick disciple who feels like NO QB is ever worth the No. 1 overall pick. (Duh: See Tom Brady.) After all, Mangini passed on Leinart -- who may or may not grade out as better than Quinn, but he's in the same ballpark -- for O-line help.

Is Oregon's Clemens as good as Quinn behind a monster O-line? How about if he had an insanely good RB behind him?

That's where Peterson comes in: He is better than Reggie Bush in that he's only slightly less of a home run threat, but he's an every-down back, where Bush is not. Not just an every-down back, but Peterson might be the best every-down RB prospect to come out of college football since... I don't know... since LaDainian Tomlinson? Put it this way: I think Peterson would have been the No. 1 overall pick in the draft had he been able to come out after his ridiculous freshman season (where he finished higher in the Heisman voting than any frosh ever).

Anyway, that's just my two cents on this issue. -- Dan

Richard said...

When teams get the #1 pick they all start targeting franchise QB's. The reality is that many of these guys flop because they are expected to produce immediately for a team that was bad enough to finish last in the league. Alex Smith, Drew Brees (until the Chargers revamped their O-Line), Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, David Carr, and even Peyton Manning (who set the rookie record for interceptions) all were or are at the mercy of a terrible supporting cast. On the other hand, guys like Roethlisberger and Leinart who come in on a decent teams, or guys like Kellen Clemens, Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer who get to wait until the supporting cast improves around them are in great positions to suceed. These would be better picks for the celler dwellers:

Adrian Peterson
Calvin Johnson
Dwayne Jarrett
Michael Bush
Darius Walker

Quinn is a guy that would have great success on a team where he has weapons around him. Teams like the Ravens, Lions, Raiders and Bucs all have offenses where a rookie QB could step in and be effective (and they have mediocre to bad QB situations - Simms sucks).

Pete said...

Dan: I appreciate your comments on Quinn vis a vis the Bills but what the Bills need is consistency at quaterback right now and Quinn would just be another rookie thrown into the fire if they picked him. I really don't think the Bills are looking for a name at quarterback but someone who can consistently not make mistakes. I think JP can step up and make this debate academic by leading the Bills to better than 6 wins this year.

As far as the Jets are concerned, they are a M-E-S-S. Its telling in that the NYC media (who are such homers at the start of ever season) have even said this is not their year. So what do they need? Well with Curtis likely never to take a snap again and with all I have been hearing about this Kellen Clemens kid I think they are better served bringing Clemens along and drafting someone like Peterson who is a great everydown back. Just my shilling.

Mark (Austin, TX) said...

I am of the opinion that you should never draft a QB #1 and maybe not even in the first round. Look at some of those picks the last dozen or so years (Leaf, Wuerfel, Toretta, Mirer, Akili Smith, etc etc etc). For every high first round pick that works out there is at least 1 if not 2 QBs that flame out and prove to be a wasted pick.

Pick up a solid QB through free agency and draft for the skill players around him in the first round. If it is Buffalo that wins it, assuming McGhee is still an every down back, I would go with Calvin Johnson out of GT or Ted Ginn out of OSU. Get a playmaker, someone who can change a game. Then get a QB in free agency who can run the offense and build from there.

The upside to this strategy is that if someone is really out to get Quinn (and there will be at least 3 or 4 teams who will), the Bills may be able to trade down, still get Johnson or Ginn plus get at least one extra draft pick that they sorely need.

Anonymous said...

there's a reason you're 0-1 dipshit.

Anonymous said...

Quinn is already overrated. Good luck with the next Joey Harrington.

D. Ling said...

JP Losman couldn't lead bear out of the woods with a pot of honey. Forget Losman, he's an aweful quarterback who was drafted too high because he had inflated numbers at a mediocre university with a soft schedule.

Blackcap is right, the Bills do not need just another rookie QB. They do need a QB that won't lose games for the team with his mistakes. Quinn fits this mold to a t. However, where Blackcap was wrong, is that Quinn is not another rookie QB, he's being bred for the NFL like a racehorse. The QB answer in Buffalo is not Losman, KH, or Nall. The answer is Quinn (plus I'm in the geographical region that gets Bills games, I'm a ND fan, so I want to see Quinn every week on TV and the occassion trip to Ralph Wilson Stadium).

Anonymous said...

Dan Shanoff said...
They should take Brady (Quinn) because he's the biggest combination of talent and "name" out there

ask the Chargers what happened when they drafted a "name" number 1
(see -- Leaf, Ryan)
(also see -- Manning, Eli)

The worse thing that could happen to Brady Quinn right now is for him to fall in love with his own legend

Anonymous said...

As another Bills fan I would like to point out that Buffalo already has some solid talent around the QB (McGahee, Evans - he may not be a big name but is a quality receiver). The defense and special teams continue to be solid. Which leaves two big issues to be dealt with 1) a horrible QB and 2) a horrible OL. Drafting another RB is useless (and I'd probably balk at taking an RB that just mangled his leg anyway) and drafting a WR without a QB that can get him the ball is also a waste of time. Levy already proved too stupid to trade down and take the extra pick while still getting his target this year. Let's hope he doesn't do it again.

London said...

Speaking of Bush, did you see that hilarious new ESPN commercial where Bush convinces his friend to take him as the first pick so the Bush can take Larry Johnson with the 2nd pick? How kosher do you think it is for active players to play fantasy football. I can imagine a defensive player easing up on one of "his" players in some high-stakes fantasy league. Like maybe in a goaline situation or something. And speaking of gambling, I thought it was really tacky of Edgerrin James to talk about how much money he had riding on the Miami-Fla St. game in a nationally televised sideline interview. What a role model.

Anonymous said...

I've said all along, back in the MQ days, that Peterson is the best player coming out next year. Only issue you have with running backs however is their NFL lifetime. Very few backs last more than a handful of years and remain productive, whereas QBs can play for 10 years or so.

Pete said...

Well regardless of where you come down on the Quinn divide I for one hope that the Bills are not in a position to draft him after this season. Let's Go Buffalo!

Anonymous said...

Richard, your list of better early picks is alright other than Darius Walker. Are you serious? Stop drinking the ND koolaid. Walker is a 4 yards a carry back in college behind a monster line and excellent passing game. That is below average my friend. Also, I really doubt anyone is going to seriously consdier Michael Bush over Marshawn Lynch. Lynch is also a big back at 215-225 lbs. He is much more of a homerun threat than Bush and signficantly more elusive.

As for the Bills, while I agree they need a marquee name, they really need to develop an offensive line. That said, a number one receiver like Johnson makes a whole lot more sense for them. It allows Evans to become the deep threat at #2 that he is better suited for.

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