Thursday, September 07, 2006

Sanchez No-No Adds to BoSox Misery

Boston's 2006 cycle of humiliation is complete as Anibal Sanchez -- who the Red Sox traded away, along with Hanley Ramirez, for Josh Beckett, in a Marlins heist of increasingly huge proportions -- threw the only MLB no-hitter of the season (and the first in two years).

That Sanchez is the 19th rookie ever to throw a no-hitter isn't nearly as impressive as the fact that the Marlins have four pitchers in their short franchise history who have thrown one. (By comparison, the Mets still have ZERO.)

If the Marlins offered Sanchez back to the Red Sox for Beckett straight up -- and demanded the Red Sox pay all but a $1 million a year of Beckett's salary -- I suspect Boston would do that deal in a second.

(Hell, if the Marlins offered their starting-pitching staff -- factoring in age, salary and ability -- to any team in the league straight up for that other team's SP staff, I would imagine that only the Twins would turn them down.)

Commenter question: Are the Red Sox (a) regressing to the mean, (b) merely stumbling for one season or (c) flashing signs of a bigger long-term problem? (You don't have to comment exclusively on this question. I'm just throwing it out there.)

-- D.S.


Anonymous said...

What's even more interesting is that the much maligned Wily Mo Pena straight-up for Bronson Arroyo could end up being a better longterm deal than the Beckett debacle.

Tyler said...

I think that they're really just stumbling. With all the injuries over the last month, it's hard to think that the Red Sox we saw in August were the real ones. I personally have high hopes for Beckett next year, although it certainly seems that Boston got shafted in that deal now. This isn't to say that there aren't bigger issues with the pitching staff, but I really feel this season is an anomaly.

Mark (Austin, TX) said...

Since my teams are out of it (or in the case of the Royals, have been out of it since April 15th...) I find myself rooting for the Marlins to make the playoffs. It would be great to see a team with a payroll the fraction of A-rods make the playoffs. And with the way their pitching is going lately, I don't know if anyone would want to face them

Jon said...

So, I guess Theo isn't going to be up for GM of the year. Just imagine they could have been going into next year with a rotation of Schilling, Papelbon, Sanchez, Lester (assuming and hoping he gets healthy) and Arroyo. And then to have Ramirez batting at the top of the lineup....Theo really messed up big time this season. Probably why he didn't make any big deals at the deadline. Didn't want to make his 3rd bad trade of the year....but he also helped kill his team's chances by doing nothing.

holmes said...

i think it's a bigger issue than people realize. i only say that because the front office doesn't seem willing to trust the young players yet (not named papelbon). they relied too much on an aging staff and simply wore them out. injuries to varitek, manny, loretta, foulke, timlin, and nixon may have been avoided.

the pitching is the most glaring problem, with the F.O. hoping aging vets like timlin could help youngsters. when that didn't work, they went out and got tavarez and snyder. aside from a few flashes of brilliance, both have been tremendous failures.

i hate to say overhaul a majority of the team, but they could use it. and i'm saying this not as a paranoid red sox fan (which i'm known to be). honestly, i never found the 2006 team to very likeable, compared to the 2003 and 2004 team.

viva kevin millar.

Anonymous said...

While I was never enthralled with the make up of this team. I think this year is hard to judge considering they looked great in June and awful in August. I do think that playing in Boston and NY (and Philly for that matter) takes a different make up. I'm not positive that Sanchez and Ramirez would have flourished like this under the constant scrutiny of the press and fans. That being said, I would have love to seen them try.

Scott from Boston

Spencer said...

Is anyone really surprised that Beckett hasn't been as good as thought of in some circles??? ESPN was calling him the next Clemens and praising him, it was ridiculous. He had a great post-season run. I can't deny that. That aside, he's like the Chris Simms (Texas Alum here) of MLB. He's got great stuff, but no stuff upstairs and wastes his talent. Congrats to the Marlins for putting together a pitching staff for years to come.

Anonymous said...

on a technical note, the Beckett trade is Luchino's 800 pound gorilla. of course, we could all guess theo had some role in it. But I have to agree with an earlier post...Wily Mo Pena is going to be a superstar. Bronson who?

Anonymous said...

Sanchez, Hanley, Meredith, Bard, Marte for Coco (who won't be with the Red Sox next season), Loretta (who won't be with the Red Sox next season), Mirabelli (who won't be with the Red Sox next season), Beckett and Lowell. That makes me want to cry.

John (Portland, ME)

TaeKwonDee said...

Speaking from a Sox fan POV, it's a combination of several things. Injuries, hastily put together trades last off season (Beckett deal), and pure panic moves this year (Mirabelli). The injuries have been devastating, you can't field a lineup with four of your top hitters out. No team could. How good are the White Sox without Konerko, Dye, Thome, and Crede. Read: Not very. That being said the moves Theo has made are questionable. The Beckett deal is easy to criticize this morning because of the Sanchez no-no, but you can't do that. I realize everyone (especially DS) loves instant history, but you can't view the trade this way. Beckett is 26 and is having an adjustment year. Does this mean he'll win the Cy Young next year? No, he may be even worse next year in fact. But you can't say the trade was a debacle until it unfolds completely and it hasn't done that yet. Don't forget the Bard and Meredith for Mirabelli deal. Bard is hitting over .300 and Cla has a sub 1.00 ERA out there in SD. That was a panic move and can be viewed negatively. Neither were given a chance in Boston. But to judge the Beckett deal as a failure at this moment, because of the Sanchez no hitter last night is irresponsible. Keep in mind that this would not even be a topic on this blog today if Sanchez had given up even one run last night.

Anonymous said...

Sings of a long-term decline. Sure, Theo can preach he's building around the farm system, but you have to quesiton his baseball sense when they keep trading away guys that end up producing elsewhere (A. Sanchez, F. Sanchez, and H. Ramirez for starters not to mention Cla Merideth the setup ace in San Diego or even backup catchers Shoppach and Bard- either of which they could have used this past month plus). Maybe he's hanging on to the wrong prsopects and this team is headed into the AL East basement for all we know. My guess is, Theo has 2 seasons to turn things around or he's gone (John Henry will want to make the break by then).

Anonymous said...

I don't want to jump on the whole "what have you done for me today" Red Sox bandwagon, but has anyone done detailed analysis on the trades that Theo has made during his tenur? Aside from the Nomar trade (and the trade for Schilling) can anyone argue that he pulled off any that worked out?

Here's a quick recap of who he's given away:
Freddy Sanchez
Hanley Ramirez
Anibel Sanchez
Bronson Arroyo (might not be too bad long term)

and all that is ignoring the whole Coco,Bard,Dougie,Renteria,Marte disaster this season.

Anonymous said...

I don't want to jump on the whole "what have you done for me today" Red Sox bandwagon, but has anyone done detailed analysis on the trades that Theo has made during his tenur? Aside from the Nomar trade (and the trade for Schilling) can anyone argue that he pulled off any that worked out?

Here's a quick recap of who he's given away:
Freddy Sanchez
Hanley Ramirez
Anibel Sanchez
Bronson Arroyo (might not be too bad long term)

and all that is ignoring the whole Coco,Bard,Dougie,Renteria,Marte disaster this season.

Richard said...

I can't believe that the Marlins are a 14.5 million dollar team threatening for a wild card berth, have the NL rookie of the year, two legitimate MVP candidates (although wont win), the NL manager of the year, and are two months away from firing that manager. They are by far the biggest story in baseball, yet all anyone can do is talk about the Red Sox. This is absurd. If the Marlins get to the playoffs, they will be a legitimate threat to win it (would YOU want to play them?). Why not address the real story of the year instead of yesterday's news?

Anonymous said...

Maybe, just maybe, the talent in the NL is not as good as double A ball where Sanchez was getting Shellacked. I don't think he would be doing this well in the AL East.

mike said...

They are stumbling for one season. As Simmons has said, if you get the chance to trade prospects (no matter who they might turn out to be) for a young, proven, power starting pitcher, you make that trade every time. EVERY time.

Besides that, Theo is doing what he thinks is best for the long term health of the club. I lived through the years when the red sox were an old, slow, defensive nightmare. Now? We all knew Varitek was going to age fast, but hes still the best Game-calling catcher there is. The roster is getting younger (This is trot's last year), and the bullpen is getting younger (delcarmen, pap, hansen).

The worst part is that Theo gets lambasted by the media for not trading away prospects at the trade deadline, but now hes getting lambasted for trading away prospects before the season started! What happens if he trades hansen or lester, and next year hansen saves 40 games with a 2.0 era, and lester wins 15 games (after making a fast recovery from lymphoma, I hope)?

Just goes to show, being a Major League GM is not just about making the moves you think are right, but not bowing to public pressure and the "instant history" that is so pervasive in todays culture. I love having a competitive team to watch, and hopefully I'll never have to see Mo Vaughn the sequel. I think Theo understands that...

Aitch said...

ok, I actually posted a bit about this in my own blog. I am a bit worried about the pitching staff for next year, but I don't think this signals the long term decline of the Red Sox. They have money, not as much as the Yanks but still more than most, if not all, of the other teams in MLB. When you hav money, you can sign good free agents.

As for the haters, you can slam the Beckett deal all you want, but it also brought us that guy playing a gold glove caliber third base. What's his name again...oh yea, Mike Lowell. Also, as well as some of these former prospects are playing on other teams, you do have to ask the simple questions. First and foremost, would they have thrived like this in Boston, under the constant scrutiny and what have you done for me lately attitude? it is hard for veteran players to adjust to, let alone baby faced rookies. Edgar Renteria was a great shortstop for years in Florida and St. Louis, but one year in Boston was a misery for him. Freddy Sanchez is playing well on a dead last place team with no pressure to win. He had chances to play in Boston, and while he played pretty well, never gave any inkling that he was capable of what he is doing in Pittsburgh. Cla Meredith also had chances to pitch last season in the bigs, and he did not perform well at all. I'm happy that he is doing well with the Padres, but it is a well established fact that pitching in the NL is an easier feat than pitching in the AL, so let's not go crazy with the praise just yet. As far as Arroyo goes, he started off the season with serious cy worthy numbers...anyone else notice that he has fallen off quite a bit? This is what he gave you in Boston. Inconsistency. While his overall number were good, you always knew there was a start coming where he would be lit up for 8 runs in 3 innings. He was good for at least a couple of these a year.

You can question the moves that Theo has made or almost made that fell through (Clement, Contreras, Carl Pavano, A Rod). I certainly do. But if Wakefield, Wells, and Clement had stayed healthy and pitched at least decent, these questions would not be coming up. Just remember that these Sox have played the majority of the season without what was 60% of their projected starting rotation. No team could survive that. They'll be back in the fight next year and for years to come. Let's not play the funeral songs just yet.

Anonymous said...

Don't forget that the NL really is, also as Simmons says, "AAAA," this year. All anyone has to do is look at the first half of the year that Bronson had in the NL, look at how well Clemens still does. Neither would do crap in the AL this year. I'm completely convinced that Sanchez couldn't even sniff a shutout in the AL, let alone a no-hitter.

Spurs x 3 Champs said...

I put the Yankees and Red Sox in the same basket.. the more they fail, the better for everyone else in MLB. Down the drain Sooooox

Joe said...

Either b or c. They don't have the depth or chemistry of their past teams and they starting to get old. That could be indicative of a long term problem. Still though, they've got a lot of the right pieces, and are one off-season big move away from being a contender again. You have to think that the Yankees' trade-dealine moves and (if the rumor's true) the failed attempt to acquire Clemens knocked the wind out of them. Everyone around them got better (New York) or came into their own (Minnesota), while they did nothing. Bad management this year, however, can serve as a teaching tool, so I expect them to learn something and bounce back next year.

Anonymous said...

Dan, can you address at some point why you seem to take such pleasure in the Red Sox woes? Is it that you don't like the fans? Is it that you enjoy watching the teams with big money lose? i only ask becaue i can just see you smiling every time i read your negative (and usually justified) comments on the red sox.

Anonymous said...

First off, remember the Sanchez/Ramirez for Lowell/Beckett deal went down after Theo resigned for the short time back in 2005.

Now, as for you, Gordon, I think you're right. Anibal Sanchez wouldn't come close to a shutout...look at his whole season, why, in his first start against the Yankees he went 5.2 innings, giving up 7 hits and...wait, he gave up ZERO runs. He may not have gone the whole way, but he shut out the Yankee lineup (even without Matsui and Sheffield it's about 1000000 times more dangerous than the average NL lineup) in his very first start.

Anonymous said...

as a sox fan, it's been so easy to be blinded by the theo hype from 04. he made some incredible moves - bringing in papi (low risk) and getting schilling (the key to winning the ws). but really his signature move was the all-in move in august 04 (nomar gone, bring in oc, doug, roberts). As well as this worked out, he just as easily could have sunk the ship for good.

what really won the ws was the pitching staff. its no secret that pitching wins championships - and in 04 we had pedro, schill, wake, lowe, arroyo with timlin and foulke a reliable 8-9. in the wake of the ws, he let two of them walk and couldnt replace them (clement - cubs' #3?, wells) - hence swept with no contest in 05. this season we had 6 sp in spring training and he of course decided that "you can have too much pitching."

maybe we are in the middle of the bridge to the younger guys... who are looking more and more troubled (all of course is of course dwarved by lester's health concerns). hopefully this pitching comes back, because without it the sox are no different from the rangers and will never win.

Anonymous said...

First off, 2004 was a fluke season for the Red Sox, a bit of good chemistry mixed with a lot of good luck.

Second of all, when trading with the National League, you must use a certain formula to gauge their potential effectiveness. It should look something like this for an AL player moving to the NL:

ALPlayer * 1.3 = NL Potential

And for an NL player moving to the AL:

NLPlayer * .75 = AL Potential

Therefore, a decent starter in the NL (Josh Beckett) will only be average in the much stronger AL. And an average starter in the AL (Arroyo, Lowe) will dominate the weak NL.

Haven't the Red Sox watched their counterpart Yankees make trade after trade for NL pitching (Wright, Pavano, Brown) only to be stuck with a shitty pitcher with a huge contract? Get with the program guys!

Anonymous said...

The Red Sox are D), succumbing to the Shanoff curse. Ever since you went on and on about 2004 meaning Theo was the best GM in the bigs the Red Sox' deals have been almost universally bad.

Paul L Carter said...

Dan Shanoff said:

"That Sanchez is the 19th rookie ever to throw a no-hitter isn't nearly as impressive as the fact that the Marlins have four pitchers in their short franchise history who have thrown one. (By comparison, the Mets still have ZERO.)"

Wow. Long-range bad karma: the Mets are still paying the price of foolishly trading away Nolan Ryan for Jim Fregosi back in 1971.

Think about this: at that career point, Ryan still had 295 wins, 5221 strikeouts and all seven career no-hitters in front of him.

Dan Shanoff said...

Everyone who made the point that it was wrong to make this about the Red Sox is right on.

The Marlins ARE the best story in baseball this season. Contention with that payroll and that roster (on paper, before the season started) is INCREDIBLE.

Question: How many teams would trade their entire ROSTER -- straight up, talent and cost obviously factored in -- for the Marlins. I'd say every team in the NL except the Mets, and every team in the AL except the Yankees and White Sox.

Travis said...

Next season at this time when Boston is walking away with the AL East with ROY to be Dustin Pedroia, and 20 game winners Papelbon, Schilling and Beckett, everyone will be calling Theo a genius for not trading Lester, Hansen, Delcarmen and others.

Anonymous said...

Keep dreaming Travis...hasn't happened the past 9 years, wont happen next.