Monday, December 11, 2006

Monday 12/11 A.M. Quickie:
LaDainian Rules, But Is Brees MVP?

This is one of those mornings where there are two stories so huge that they actually converge. In this case, it's LaDainian Tomlinson obliterating the NFL single-season TD record (with 3 games to play!) and the Saints obliterating the Cowboys (in Dallas) to pull into the NFC No. 2 spot and continue their dream season. Let's dig in...


The MVP case for Tomlinson
: I don't like to curse, but there's only one phrase that comes to mind for what LaDainian Tomlinson is doing this season: Holy Shit.

"Holy shit" that he set the new single-season TD record (set only last season by Shaun Alexander) WITH THREE GAMES STILL TO PLAY. The ramifications of this are staggering: He very well could create the most unbreakable record in major sports.

And "holy shit": If we're watching the greatest single-season for an RB in NFL history, are we also watching the greatest running back in NFL history? Marty Schottenheimer thinks so, and – if you consider a single season an indicator – it's hard to argue with him. The MVP debate between he and Brees (presuming the Saints finish 1 or 2 in the NFC) will be phenomenal... and fierce. Because...

Saints: Best NFL team story ever? The question isn't whether the Saints are the NFL team story of the year; it's whether the Saints are the best NFL team story of all time.

Sure, it's only Week 14 -- there's plenty of time for the season to derail (though in the weak NFC, that would be a stretch) -- but after last night's primetime national-TV smackdown of the "contender" Cowboys (in Dallas, no less), they're storybook season just get even better.

They were already the new version of America's Team; how can you NOT root for them? (At the very least, how can you begrudge them success?) That was back when they were simply the crappy team giving a little hope to some hometown fans who needed it.

But now they have the second-best record in the NFC and control their own destiny not just for a home playoff game, but getting a first-round bye. And if you watched them steamroll the Cowboys last night -- and if you've watched the Bears recently -- the Saints are arguably the best team in the NFC.

Here's how good Drew Brees is right now: By almost every measure, LaDainian Tomlinson should be running away with the league MVP award; not only has Brees thrown himself into the argument -- at his current pace, Brees is going to pull it off. His 5 TDs last night will help.

There have been more dominant teams in NFL history, but none of those had the Saints' universal appeal. There may have been more likeable underdogs in NFL history (and maybe not), but none was this competitive. Stay tuned: It's the best NFL story you're going to see.

Vince Young is my hero: That and more NFL Week 14 analysis here (or in the post below.)

NBA: Whither AI? He's still inactive. Doesn't it hurt the Sixers every game they don't play him? Can't the league step in with a one-time exception to the salary-match trade rules that can make this a little easier on everyone?

Meanwhile, the Suns won their 10th straight game, behind Amare's 7th double-double in his last 8 games. It only took him six weeks to reclaim his position among the NBA's elite.

MLB Hot Stove: With a Thursday deadline, it's looking more likely that the Red Sox won't be able to sign Matsuzaka, which keeps him out of the MLB market – this season – but leaves the Red Sox open to the Yankees poaching him when he's a complete free agent a year from now.

College Hoops Parity Watch: A season after losing to them in the NCAA Regional Final, Texas (now unranked) finally beat LSU (ranked No. 9), albeit needing OT and a virtual home game in Houston. Still, it continues the early-season pattern of extreme parity.

-- D.S.

113 comments:

CMFost said...

Dan one correctiong Matsuzaka would have to be posted again next year, he will not be a complete free agent for 2 years according to most of the stories I have been reading.

See today's Boston Globe

CMFost said...

The MVP should be LT no questions asked he is the best player on the best team in the toughest conference. The Saints are a great story but LT is having a record shattering season. But this being the NFL the probably give it to Peyton Manning like they always do.

CMFost said...

oops wrong newspaper I meant the herald this is directly from the story.


Boras and Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein could not be reached for comment, but it is believed the organization views the agent’s approach as a stall tactic geared toward making sure Matsuzaka returns to Japan. By doing that, he could challenge a flawed posting system or bring the pitcher back to the United States as a complete free agent after the 2008 season.
Matsuzaka, who already has bid farewell to the Seibu Lions, also may opt to go through the posting system next year with Boras or a different agent.

Big D said...

Wow... cmfost up early and on a roll... :)

Regarding Matsuzaka... I cannot imagine any way that he goes back to Japan and accepts the comparatively small salary. Although, I also don't see any way that the Sox & Boras reach an agreement here.

Maybe "Dice" drops Boras and gets a deal done. Of course, with players like Gil freakin' Meche getting $55M guaranteed, I don't imagine that Matsuzaka will be settling for $8-10M a year.

As for the NFL, well, I've got a post coming later today or tomorrow morning. Let's just say the Chargers are the best team in the league for a reason.

That's right - I've finally mastered the teaser...

RevScottDeMangeMD said...

Can anyone direct me to the Heisman balloting? And when I say balloting, I want the full list of players that got votes. My roommate said something like 64 players got votes. Anyone?

Oh and thank you Buffalo.

CMFost said...

The Chargers are the best team in the league but they still have MArty "I shit the bed in the playoffs" Schotteimer as a coach. That being said if he can not get to the Super Bowl with this team he will never get to the Super Bowl. Top Defense, Goo Special Teams and a balanced almost unstoppable offense. They are the team Indy wishes they could be.

jhawkjjm said...

I like the Saints story and don't wish what happened to that city on anyone, but their record should not really be a big surprise. For the past couple of years all the talking heads annointed the Saints as the Most Underachieving Team and the reason for that was Aaron Brooks. This team has had the talent the past few years, just not at QB. Now they have a QB and they are no longer underachieving and are playing more to their talent level. So can we please stop making a bigger deal about this than it really is?

RevScottDeMangeMD said...

cmfost...

SD has the top defense? hardly.

Sheldiz said...

i'm with revscott on that one.

CMFost said...

Rev - SD is a good defense - they currently rank

7th Yard Allowed
7th in Rushing YA
11th in Passing YA
12th in Points Allowed (18.1 PPG) and if you take away the 4 games Merriman missed where they gave up 107 points they average giving up 16.5 PPG with Merriman in the line up.

I did not say they where the top defence but they have one of the top defenses in the league

Brian in Oxford said...

Would it actually BE a Boras negotiation if it were resolved more than 4 days before the deadline? Besides, wasn't the Drew deal pretty much a way to get Boras HIS cut without having to go higher on Dice-man? (Little boy blue....oh forget it.)

I haven't had a chance to see all of LdT's touchdowns, but what I'm curious is whether, they bring him in specifically to score touchdowns....Like, if it's 1st and goal from the 5, does he get 1, 2, 3 chances to score? Or are the touchdowns coming in the "natural flow" of their offense. (In other words, are they letting him hog the ball disproportionately near the goal line?)

Cowboys, Pats, Colts....played a version of "can you top this", only backwards.

I was eating lunch at the ESPNZone in Times Square Saturday, and we almost got hit with sparks from a malfunctioning speaker. Like a sparkler from the 4th of July. Anyways, the carrot cake with rum sauce was pretty good, but nothing else stood out.

Mikepcfl said...

I think San Diego has the best mix of a strong defense and a great offense. But the Ravens have the one AFC defense that can just take over a game and win it single-handedly.

And the Ravens have one ace in the hole if we play the Chargers...Martyball!

Anonymous said...

A couple notes about the Saints based on comments here:

1) The onside kick. I had no problem with it at that time in the game. Now, if it were the 4th quarter, then that might be a bit much. But Dallas drove right down the field last time they had it, so why not try to keep the ball from them one more time? The Saints called off the dogs after the subsequent drive.

2) jhawkjjm - The Saints may have underachieved in past seasons, but this team is much more than just a change at QB. All the skill positions except Deuce are new guys...Brees, Bush, Colston, Henderson, Copper. And these guys are the #2 scoring offense behind SD now. So face it, it's a big deal.

CMFost said...

Most of LT's scores come in the flow of the offense. And they vary from 1 yards runs to 50 yards runs to 30 yards receptions.

RevScottDeMangeMD said...

cmfost...

"That being said if he can not get to the Super Bowl with this team he will never get to the Super Bowl. Top Defense"

I understand what you are saying...just pointing out that you said "top" before you put the stats up. they are a good defense, but nowhere near the top. But that is just semantics.

Anyone find the answer to my Heisman question above?

CMFost said...

Rev - if a had stated as "a top defense" would you be ok with it. My meaning they are one of the top defenses in the league especially if Merriman is in the line up.

As for your Heisman questions I looked best I could find is a site with the top 10.

Brave Sir Robin said...

At what point does Dan admit his mistake in declaring Reggie Bush a bust? Did I miss the post where he apologized for this or what?

CMFost said...

Rev - On heisman votes this was the best i could find

The vote total were as follows:
Troy Smith 2540*
Darren McFadden 878
Brady Quinn 782
Steve Slaton 214
Mike Hart 210
Colt Brennan 202
Ray Rice 79
Ian Johnson 73
Dwayne Jarrett 47
Calvin Johnson 43

Anonymous said...

The onsides kick was in the 3rd quarter against THE NUMBER TWO OFFENSE IN THE LEAGUE!!! Yes, those Cowboys are #2. Let's give TO his props here.

Payton knew what he was doing, too, he's a Parcells guy. I thought the Saints were smart for picking up Brees, stupid for picking this guy up, but I was so wrong.

They were brilliant both times. Who are these Saints and what did they do to their owner?

CMFost said...

Did you think Miami is kicking themselves for Choosing Culpepper over Brees?

Anonymous said...

I think LDT is the MVP this year right now. But, there's something everyone must consider.

DREW BREES IS ONLY 350 YARDS A GAME FROM DAN MARINO'S SINGLE SEASON PASSING RECORD

This can't be ignored. As great as LDT's TD record is, the single season passing record is bigger. And, as overstated as it is, you can't quantify the Nah'lens factor. People also won't forget that this is the Saints. Before Brees (Colston and Bush aren't in this convo) this team was quite bad.

There was a sportsnation poll yesterday about who was the best running back ever. Choices were Barry, Brown, Emmit, LDT, Payton.
Barry was 1st, Payton was 2nd, LDT 3rd, Brown 4th, and the dancing wonder was last.

I still think the Bulls better get AI before the clock hits all 0s. They need a scorer so bad that they'd sign Spree at this point if they had the cash. And you know they'd need the cash. Because Spree has got to feed his family.

I get the feeling that the Red Sox are successfully playing hardball with Boras. Think about it from Boras' point of view. If Matsuzaka goes back to Japan, Boras get 10 percent of his 2.4 million dollar contract? Why not just take what they give you? It's not like he can pretend other teams are interested. I figure eventually he will sign because Boras may be a jerk, stubborn, and greedy but he's not dumb. At least not dumb enough to head back to Japan.

Trey (formerly TF) said...

Dan,

Cy Young is on the phone, he just wanted to know if his corpse should come pitch a few to get that win total of 511 up. I think he fears a bionic man/ robot one day taking it out in say 2134.

However I agree outside of Gretzky this could be an unbreakable record. It's absolutly incredible and San Diego will be in the Super Bowl
Joe (Dayton)

CMFost said...

Eric, NO does not have to All-pro running backs. They have 2 good running backs but I do not think either of them are going to be named to the All-Pro team, maybe to the pro bowl. but for the most part based on how many yard they have thrown for there offense has been pass heavy.

For me my MVP ballot would be:

1. LT
2. Brees
3. Urlacher

RevScottDeMangeMD said...

cmfost...

yes...just using that letter "a" makes the statement much more credible. amazing.

and i wasn't ripping on you...i have a tendency to take things too literally. thanks for the top 10 heisman listing too!

CMFost said...

TD record is not unbreakable heck it was set last year. The only real unbreakable records might be

Gretzky's Career Points
Young's Career Wins
Rose's Career Hits

Kevin said...

A few months ago it was: "Houston, you are so stupid for passing on Reggie Bush."

Now it's: "Houston, you are so stupid for passing on Vince Young."

Funny how quickly that voice changed once Vince started playing. I wonder how Mario Williams is taking it?

CMFost said...

Actually I heard this morning Houston you are complete idiots how could you pass on either Young or Bush

Big D said...

@ guyinthecorner:

"If Matsuzaka goes back to Japan, Boras get 10 percent of his 2.4 million dollar contract?"


Don't know if he even gets that, since he may not have negotiated the original deal. Don't agents only get a commission is they negotiated the original deal (remember - that was the biggest reason T.O. went nuts last year - new agent needed his cut on a new deal)

@ drunken loo:

"Gretzky would probably like to have a word with you."


Key word in the original statement - "Major". I believe Dan has repeatedly stated that Hockey is no longer one of the "Major" sports. Whether or not you agree with that, I think that's where the premise comes from.

Christian Thoma said...

While I appreciate what LDT is doing, I have to question whether people would be willing to crown him so fast with the MVP if fantasy football didn't exist.

Allen Wedge said...

Don't confuse Phillip Rivers (or Tony Romo) for a rookie; he's had plenty time to learn plus Brees actually helped and taught him while he was there too, its wasn't a heated/friction competition thing when Brees was there like most team situations.

Anyway its all opinion on who you choose as an MVP, but people need to realize that both guys are driving forces on teams in which they both rely on teammates. LT definitely doesn't do it without Gates, Rivers, the defense and mostly his blockers. Brees doesn't do it without all those guys on the offense. As a saints fan I actually love that fact that people keep throwing all this attention on Brees and Bush while everyone else also racxks up yards and scores; serioualy as a defese, who would you show more attention to on the Saints offense? you can't pick anyone, Brees is throwing TD's to 10 guys on the offense, and Deuce and Bush are both getting 100 yards a game; who do you show attention to and double cover?? no one, you can't. Dallas defense blitzed and sacked Brees in the 1st quarter, so we adjusted by throwing small passes and ate up that defense. also if you forget the Pittsburg and Cincy screw up games, what about the Saints defense stepping up this season and without Hollis Thomas last night.

1st The season isn't over, 2nd you can make valid points for either LT or Brees that wouldn't upset me, at this point they are both deserving.

Big D said...

I would agree that right now, LdT's 29TDs are not the record to end all records in pro sports.

Wilt's 100 could easily stand forever, or until a team decides that they are lousy enough and want some type of notoriety. Then a player could conceivably top 100 (see Bryant, Kobe)

Joe D's 56 is absolutely out of reach. The media pressure on players reacheing even 35 or so tends to be enough to get in their heads.

Cy Young's 511 wins is a ridiculous number. Considering we may never see another 300-game winner, I think it's safe to say that 400 or 500 is out of reach. Unless of course it's discovered that Roger Clemens is actually an ageless cyborg.

Nolan's strikeouts record is another one that doesn't look to fall very soon. Same goes for Cal's consecutive games played, and Gretzky's goals/points in a season.

The fact is, every sport has an "untouchable" record, and in every sport, someday, someone will come close or eclipse it. And we'll be left scratching our heads, saying "Well now it really is untouchable..."

Although when Tomlinson ends the year at 35, I think that's a pretty high bar to vault. Needing to average 2+ TDs a game over a 16-game season is a pretty tough task.

Brian in Oxford said...

If he wants to keep going, I think Jeter's actually got a shot at Rose's record. Halfway there, age 32. Not a lock by any stretch, but by no means is Rose's record unbreakable. (Even A-Rod's just under halfway there, a year younger.)

My favorite argument for most unbreakable record is Johnny Vander Meer's 2 consecutive no-hitters, because of what it would take to BREAK that.

I'm stunned at the lack of love for Jim Brown, but he did retire 40 years ago, already. People say athletes today are bigger, faster, stronger, etc....I think the point to make is that if Brown were 16 today, he'd have access to the same training regimens that make the players bigger, faster, stronger today. And then he'd still be 40% more physically dominating than anyone else TODAY, as he was relative to those of his own era. 8 rushing titles in 9 years seems better than Tomlinson, at least so far. (and subject to change, obviously)

Christian Thoma said...

@eric:

I'm not saying LDT doesn't deserve to be in the discussion, or even to win it. My point is that there are a bunch of people acting like no one else deserves to be in the discussion, which is simply not true. And I believe, whether or not there is evidence, that there are people who want to crown LDT MVP already who care more about the number of TDs he has scored -- and fantasy points he has generated -- who can't even tell you what the Chargers' record is.

Lew said...

The one thing that could derail LT from being the greatest running back in NFL history is if he ever makes it onto the cover of Madden

Big D said...

@ lew:

"The one thing that could derail LT from being the greatest running back in NFL history is if he ever makes it onto the cover of Madden."


Now THAT'S a good point. And if he wins the MVP this year, he certainly will get the cover of Madden.

Even worse, if the Chargers make the Super Bowl, LdT will probably get a Chunky Soup commercial too.

At that rate, his left leg should fall off by about Week Six of 2007.

Brave Sir Robin said...

Lew,
MAdden cover coming next year. And there goes the ACL

Anonymous said...

I don't think LT can't be more valuable than Vince Young. LT is surrounded by more talent and a winning franchise.

I like Vince Young as MVP. He's basically made a franchise relevant and he's hugely entertaining and you can literally see how bad the team was without him.

LT isn't a bad choice, obviously, I'd have VY, LT and then Brees.

How about anti-MVPs? I've got Culpepper.

Can we just agree on that?

Anonymous said...

Official list of unbreakable baseball records courtesy of me:

Career Stealing Home: 54 (Ty Cobb)
Consecutive Games Reaching Base: 84 (Tedd Williams 1949)
Inside-The-Park Homeruns in a season: 12 (Sam Crawford 1901)
Career On Base Percentage: .481 (Ted Williams)
On Base Percentage in a season: .609 (Barry Bonds 2004)
Career Batting Average: .366 (Ty Cobb)
Batting Average in a season: .440 (Hugh Duffy 1894)
Triples in a season: 36 (Cheif Wilson 1912)
Career Walks: 2,795 (Nolan Ryan)
Consecutive Innings Without a Walk: 84.1 (Bill Fischer 1962)
Career Complete Games: 749 (Cy Young)
Complete Games in a season: 75 (Will White 1879)
Complete Games by a Rookie: 66 (Jim Devlin 1876)
Career Starts: 815 (Cy Young)
Career Innings Pitched: 7,356 (Cy Young)
Innings Pitched in a season: 680 (Will White 1879)
Innings Pitched by a Rookie: 378 (Irv Young 1905)
Career Losses: 316 (Cy Young)
Losses in a season: 48 (John Coleman 1883)
Losses by a Rookie: 35 (Jim Devlin 1876)
Career Shutouts: 110 (Walter Johnson)
Career Strikeouts: 5,714 (Nolan Ryan)
Strikeouts in a season: 441 (Old Hoss Radbourn 1884)
Career Wild Pitches: 277 (Nolan Ryan)
Career Wins: 511 (Cy Young)
Wins in a month: 15 (John Clarkson 1885)
Wins in a season: 59 (Old Hoss Radbourn 1884)
Wins by a Rookie: 47 (Al Spalding 1876)

Anybody make a list of basketball or football?

mattie said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
mattie said...

Wilt's 100 could easily stand forever, or until a team decides that they are lousy enough and want some type of notoriety. Then a player could conceivably top 100 (see Bryant, Kobe)

I actually think Kobe's a straight up threat to reach 100 right now, so I don't consider Wilt's 100 untouchable the way DiMaggio's 56 or Cy Young's win total are. There's no lock, of course, and he could go the rest of his career and never hit 80 again, but...he's scored 62 and 52 points in 3 quarters, scored 81 points in a game, and has dropped 30 in a quarter twice. The next time he's on fire like that (we might need a new term, because that's beyond on fire) in a game that's at least somewhat, sort of competitive, who knows what he'll wind up with? It's really unbelievable.


Actually I heard this morning Houston you are complete idiots how could you pass on either Young or Bush

That's what I'm talking about. Why not take one of them? Must have been fun to watch Young kill them in OT and then go nuts all over the field. Meanwhile, Bush has got himself on track, and is showing some sick moves while doing it. How you could skip having one of those guys as the face of your franchise (especially when your franchise is the TEXANS and needs some marquee excitement) is completely beyond me.

Christian Thoma said...

There's no way you can tell me that a record that's been broken two straight seasons will end up being untouchable.

I'm also not convinced the "pendulum records" (as I call them) are unbreakable either. Yes, baseball has changed and that makes the Complete Games, Steals, and Wins records look untouchable. But you never know what might happen twenty years down the road. What if steroid/greenie testing is perfected, and home runs plummet? Speedy guys could return to prominence.

The records I feel are most untouchable are those that require sustained excellence. DiMaggio's hit streak. Hershisher's scoreless innings. But even those aren't completely untouchable (obviously, as Hershisher beat an 'untouchable' record to set his).

To be honest, the only record I truly believe I'll never see broken in my lifetime is grand slams in an inning.

Big D said...

@ guyinthecorner:

You officially have too much time on your hands. Did you actually just reference Cy Young, Ted Williams, Nolan Ryan... and Hugh Duffy in the same comment? Was Wee Willie Keeler unavailable and his record of four games of 5+ hits in a season no good? :)

By the way - my vote for NFL LVP - Drew Bledsoe. Of course, he could get consideration for MVP as well, for being so terrible as to allow Tony Romo to step in and maybe save the Cowboys' season.

Anonymous said...

Big D-

Wee Willie Keeler was incredible. The guy was between 5'4 and 5'7 and is in the HOF. He hit .424 in 1897.

He was also, by most accounts, the best bunter of all time, and the reason they changed the rule to make a two strike foul bunt an out. Playing for Baltimore, he is also the reason that the ball that bounces so high the runner can beat out a one-hopper is called a "Baltimore Chop".

He batted .300 in 13 straight seasons. He is the only player to have 8 seasons in a row with 200+ hits. Ichiro is going after that now.

And obviously....
"Keep your eye clear, and hit 'em where they ain't."

Anonymous said...

What?

Wow. I didn't know that you weren't asking for a Wee Willie Keeler Bio.

My bad.

Anonymous said...

Baseball would have to change too much to see the complete games "records" seriously challenged (too many records listed for baseball). I don't think complete games are coming back for pitchers ever. It just makes too much sense to rest them.

Hockey has changed a lot, so I doubt Gretzky's records will stay unchallenged.

And yes, there's no way that LT's record is unchallengeable. We haven't even considered how much easier it would be to break his record if the NFL expanded again.

I think the low team scoring record in the NBA (in the shot clock era, etc.) are probably as unbreakable as the pitching complete game records in MLB. Basketball is never going back to the Heat vs. Knicks 1-part-rugby-1-part-basketball brand of b-ball.

chipp said...

I thought the AFC West was supposed to be good - they have the #1 team, the #31(t) team, and 2 teams that are in line to miss the playoffs.

SD is awfully good, but their only games against playoff (likely) teams were a loss at BAL (close) and a win at CIN (big comeback on the road). Although, beating DEN twice is what is keeping them out of the playoffs (at the moment).

Sheldiz said...

Vanderjagt for LVP.

i'm making t-shirts.

Anonymous said...

eric-

I'm not sure that it's fair to use the 5th ranked QB (Bulger) and the 10th ranked RB (Dunn).

I also don't think it's fair to call either of them average.

Here's average.

Edgerrin James and Chad Pennington.

Big D said...

@ guyinthecorner:

"Wow. I didn't know that you weren't asking for a Wee Willie Keeler Bio.

My bad."


Dude, you are my new favorite commenter. The fact that you looked up all that crap on Wee Willie keeler (at least, I hope you had to look it up and didn't know it all off the top of your head), then took the time to post it, and post more crap, only confirms my original belief that you do, in fact, have far too much time on your hands.


Also, Eric, I mentioned Cal's streak earlier. It's a record that won't be broken anytime soon, though i have to agree with ndyanks - it's impressive only in sheer magnitude of the numbers, not in production or ability to help the team.

Towards the end of the streak (like, the last five-ish years), thre were plenty of times Cal could have sat down and probably helped his team in doing so.

Christian Thoma said...


Towards the end of the streak (like, the last five-ish years), thre were plenty of times Cal could have sat down and probably helped his team in doing so.


Substitute Pete Rose for Cal and you have my argument as to why Ty Cobb is still the true hit king.

Jeff said...

Brees is defenitally having a MVP caliber season. If you look at past MVP QB statistics he is right in line with them here are some examples.

First let look at Brees' current statistics extrapolated to 16 games:

YDS-4963 TD-31 Int-12 Rating-101.2
( I don't know how to extrapotate his rating so I use his current rating)

Now lets look at the past 10 QBs to win MVP
Manning
2004 YDS-4557 TD-49 Int-10 Rating-121.1
2003 YDS-4267 TD-29 Int-10 Rating-99.0
McNair 2003 (14 games)
YDS-3215 TD-25 Int-7 Rating-100.4
Gannon 2002
YDS-4689 TD-26 Int-10 Rating-97.3
Warner
2001 YDS-4830 TD-36 Int-22 Rating-101.4
1999 YDS-4353 TD-41 Int-13 Rating-109.2
Farve
1997 YDS-3867 TD-35 Int-16 Rating-92.6
1996 YDS-3899 TD-39 Int-13 Rating-95.8
1995 YDS-4413 TD-38 Int-13 Rating-99.5
Young 1994
YDS-3969 TD-35 Int-10 Rating-112.8
Plus 253 rushing yds and 7 rushing TDs
Also lets throw in Marino's 1984 season
YDS-5084 TD-48 Int-17 Rating-108.9

Now lets look at LDT's stats taken out to 16 games
Rush: YDS-1756 TD-32 Rec: YDS-589 TD-4
Plus two TD passes

And compare to the last 10 MVP RB winners.
Alexander 2005
Rush: YDS-1880 TD-27 Rec: YDS-78 TD-1
Faulk 2000 (14 games)
Rush: YDS-1359 TD-18 Rec: YDS-830 TD-8
T. Davis 1998
Rush: YDS-2008 TD-21 Rec: YDS-217 TD-2
Sanders 1997
Rush: YDS-2053 TD-11 Rec: YDS-305 TD-3
E. Smith 1993 (14 games)
Rush: YDS-1486 TD-9 Rec: YDS-414 TD-1
T. Thomas 1991 (15 games)
Rush: YDS-1407 TD-7 Rec: YDS-631 TD-5
M. Allen 1985
Rush: YDS-1759 TD-11 Rec: YDS-555 TD-3
E. Campbell 2005
Rush: YDS-1697 TD-19 Rec: YDS-94 TD-0
Payton 1977 (14 games)
Rush: YDS-1852 TD-14 Rec: YDS-269 TD-2
O.J. Simpson 1973 (14 games)
Rush: YDS-2003 TD-12 Rec: YDS-70 TD-0

So LDT's season yardage wise is comparable to the other MVP seasons, but he blows them away in TDs

This is why statistically (with projected stats) I think LDT deserves the MVP, because comparing both Brees' and his season to past MVP winner's seasons LDT clearly is better. So Brees is having an MVP caliber season, but just like Culpepper in 2004 his is the second best MVP caliber performance of the year.

Christian Thoma said...


( I don't know how to extrapotate his rating so I use his current rating)


That's what you're supposed to do with rating projections, so you were correct.

Anonymous said...

MVP: Michael Vick

Obviously he must be that good if Atlanta would trade LT and Brees for him, right?

Anonymous said...

At first, I thought Vanderjagt too, but consider this:

With Culpepper, preseason, the Dolphins were a Super Bowl team. During the season, they became the worst team in the NFL. He's the anti-Vince Young.

Christian Thoma said...


MVP: Michael Vick

Obviously he must be that good if Atlanta would trade LT and Brees for him, right?


Anthony for the win!

Sheldiz said...

but i've already made the t-shirts.

Anonymous said...

Big D-

Thank you. Acually here's how it went...

Looked up:
1897 batting average
.300 in 13 straight seasons

Knew off the top of my head:
height
best bunter
changed the bunting rule
"Baltimore chop"
200+ hits 8 straight years
his famous quote

Anonymous said...

jo fer-

I acually just saw the wikipedia page.

As my last post said, I knew most of it and strangely enough the 2 things I needed to look up I found somewhere else.

All the other thins that I knew are famous.

The "baltimore chop" and best bunting things I knew because I once read a Honus Wagner biography and he thought Keeler was the best bunter. Everyone knows the "Hit 'em where they ain't" quote and his height is famous hence the nickname "Wee".

Anonymous said...

and in response to how much time I have on my hands....

I'm in an anthropology class

Anonymous said...

jo fer-

You and me both.

(side note: who says "you and me both"? what a weird saying)

Anonymous said...

Vanderjagt was last year's LVP, come on, he can't win it two years in a row!

Culpepper for LVP! Culpepper for LVP!

Christian Thoma said...

@nyc-steelers fan,
re: Ewing Theory applicability to McNabb

Remember that long before it happened, Simmons said that Bledsoe was a prime candidate for the theory (and his exact comment was 'Everyone in New England is nodding right now'). Bledsoe had already gone to the Super Bowl, and the team had been (unevenly) competitive with him.

And that's the thing about the Ewing Theory; a team gets competitive behind an excellent player, but unwilling removal of said player causes the team to play better.

Which is why I disagree (with Bill Simmons, no less!) that it applies to Romo and the Cowboys, because it was a conscious decision to stop using Bledsoe. With McNabb or (Peyton) Manning it does apply because both QBs are considered top-notch but neither has brought home the trophy.

You know who else is riding the Ewing Theory this year? University of Oklahoma. If they were playing anybody else but Boise State, I would be picking them to lose because Adrian Peterson is planning to play.

Christian Thoma said...


Vince Young has been enjoying a nice start to his career. He has all the media support, but why does everyone love him, yet continue to take shots at Michael Vick?


Because Vick has been in the league longer. VY is currently enjoying a honeymoon; if he regresses next year (after teams have had time to adjust to him) then he'll start receiving shots as well.

Sheldiz said...

solomon -- i have a feeling were are missing a CRUCIAL LVP candidate... but i can't quite put my finger ont it....

Sheldiz said...

i didn't think it was possible to bring Notre Dame football in to this thread.... and yet again, i'm proved wrong.

Big D said...

@ setherton22:

I'd take Jason Taylor (B) over Brian Urlacher (A) any day of the week.

Anonymous said...

How about ND hockey?! heh

Pete Rose is the hit king. Cripes, will people use the silly little gambling thing to try to take away everything? lol

As for Brees v LDT: It's about being the most valuable for your team. Neither team would be nearly as good without their respective player having the season they are having.

Sheldiz said...

"That was ND BASKETBALL - but thanks for the comment..."

I was referring to Jo-Fer's comment, actually.

Christian Thoma said...

How the Packers can make the Playoffs:

Obviously, they have to win out to be 8-8. After that, they have to pass 5 teams to get a Wild Card spot.

First the Packers games: vs Detroit, vs Minnesota, at Chicago. The first game should hopefully be a cakewalk (and if it isn't, stop reading now because nothing else matters). The Packers have already beaten the Vikings in Minnesota, and despite the Vikes win this weekend, they're not as tough as people thought earlier this season, and the Packers may be able to pull it off. If they do, the Packers no longer have to worry what games the Vikings win because it would guarantee 8 losses and the Packers would win ALL tiebreakers with Minnesota.

Now, the Chicago game is interesting. On the one hand, the Bears are obviously way better than the Packers. On the other hand, they should have clinched home-field advantage by the final week of the season, and the Pack may be able to steal a victory. Let's hope so, anyway.

Ok, now before we pass 5 teams, 3 other division winners have to be chosen. They are the Saints, the Seahawks, and the Cowboys. These teams can win as many games as they feel like--in fact, they'll need to win specific games.

Ok, here is the roster of teams the Packers have to pass then:
Rams (5-7), Vikings (6-7), Panthers (6-7), Falcons (7-6), Eagles (7-6) and/or Giants (7-6). One of these teams can win the other wild card spot--but since the Eagles already own the tiebreaker on the Packers, the Eagles are preferred.

Now, because the tiebreakers get screwy when teams share similar conference records, I have the Giants losing all 3 games (Falcons don't need to since the Packers would have a better conference record in this scenario). However, it's feasible that the Giants could still beat the Redskins in Week 17 and the Packers win the tiebreaker.

So here's one scenario where the Packers make the playoffs:

Week 14
Chicago beats Rams

Week 15
Green Bay beats Detroit
Eagles beat Giants
Cowboys beat Falcons
Steelers beat Panthers*

Week 16
Green Bay beats Minnesota
Saints beat Giants
Falcons beat Panthers*

Week 17
Green Bay beats Chicago
Eagles beat Falcons
Minnesota beats Rams**, ***
Saints beat Panthers*
Redskins beat Giants

*Panthers have to lose 2 of these 3 games. Doesn't actually matter which 2 they lose.

**There are other games that could have an effect; the Rams just need to lose 2 games, so a loss to either Oakland or Washington (Weeks 15 and 16) coupled with a Bears loss eliminates them. However, I'm going to stick with likelier victories.

***Even though the Packers own the tiebreaker with Minnesota, a Packers loss with a Vikings win could put the Vikings in the playoffs at 8-8 in this scenario, so the Vikings should be sufficiently motivated.

One interesting note about this highly unlikely but still feasible scenario: it really only requires two "upsets": Packers over Bears, and Redskins over Giants. Every other game is a favorable matchup.

Piece o' cake.

Big D said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
CMFost said...

Hey Anthony, Do you think if Atlanta had a chance to do it all over again and keep Brees and LT they would of?

Big D said...

@ chrth:

And I thought guyinthecorner had too much free time...

Sheldiz said...

chrth -- i love it. stranger things have happened. i mean, i can't think of any right this second... but i'm sure they have.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

big d said.....

"And I thought guyinthecorner had too much free time... "

For the last time...

I WAS IN ANTHROPOLGY CLASS

Christian Thoma said...

@All:

The only negative about the Favre era is that I used to love coming out with these scenarios back in the 80s. It's fun to see which pieces need to fall into place, and rooting for specific outcomes each week.

The really odd part is that the Cardinals are still alive. Anyone want to tackle that scenario?

Christian Thoma said...


"Every other game is a favorable matchup."

We all know how those have turned out in the NFL so far this season.

Haven't 'Dogs' won outright like 2/3 of the games this year in the NFL?


What I meant by 'favorable' was that rooting for the outcome wouldn't be tantamount to wishing for a miracle. In all those matchups (except the two noted), I can easily visualize the necessary outcome, or in other words, it wouldn't be a surprise to anyone if it happened that way. It's why I didn't include Raiders over Rams ... sure the Raiders *could* win, but it would be a shocker if they did.

Big D said...

@ guyinthecorner:

For the last time...

I WAS IN ANTHROPOLGY CLASS


I don't remember much of my anthro class in college. I slept through it. My basic premise for exams was as follows:

Amoebas -> Bigger things -> Monkees -> Neanderthals -> Mike Tyson -> Humans.

I managed a B+. I was OK with that.

Anonymous said...

I acually noticed that comment too.

I'm not sure if they were implying steriods.

If they had said they saw him going into a back room with Shawne Merriman the other day, that would have been implying steriods.

It could also be implying something else though...

CMFost said...

let face it we all probably have too much time on our hands

Anonymous said...

previous comment was @jizzy mcpoo

Big D said...

@ jizzy mcpoo (can't believe I just typed that):

"he is putting up Hall of Fame numbers at an age when his numbers are supposed to be dwindling."


Hold on a second. The guy is 27. It's not like he's a 35-year old runningback experiencing a sudden resurgence. He's been in the league for 6 years now, which is why it's probably easy to forget that he's just hitting his prime right now.

Most runningbacks peak around age 28 or 29. So he's getting to the top of his game at the normal time.

His stats have been nothing if not extremely consistent, although he does look poinsed to put up a career high in rushing yards (256 yards short with 3 games to go) and, obviously, TDs this season.

I agree that he's getting more accolades this year because he is a fantasy beast. But let's not let the fantasy impact glaze over the fact that he is having an historic season for a runningback, and he is doing it in what should be one of his best seasons, if history is any indicator.

Besides, I can't take steroid allegations seriously when they involve a runningback that is 5'10" and 220 lbs.

Christian Thoma said...


I don't remember much of my anthro class in college. I slept through it.


Same here. Oh, and I hit on a girl in the next seat, that's the only thing I remember from the class.

Anonymous said...

EXTREME MOMENTARY CHANGE OF TOPIC

Sorry, but this has to be done before it is announced.

"IRVING, Texas -- Outfielder Kenny Lofton and the Texas Rangers are closing in on a contract agreement.

While a deal hasn't yet been reached, sources told The Associated Press and ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick that the team and Lofton are close to a deal."

Here is the competition....

NAME THAT CONTRACT

I say 2 years, 13.5 million.


note: I'll keep track of the entries and announce a winner

(obviously this is now a sport in itself because of the insane contracts being handed out)

marcomarco said...

Don't forget about Charlie Hustle.

4,256 MLB hits
3 Kane tombstone piledrivers
1 Rikishi stinkface

Big D said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Christian Thoma said...

@guyinthecorner:

3 years, 21 million

Big D said...

Re: Lofton's Contract

I'll go 1 year, $6M, with a club option for '08 at $8.5M.

The centerfield crop next year is too good for the Rangers to give Lofton a guaranteed multi-year dceal right now.

Big D said...

Also, as much as it pains me, I thought I'd pass along a little NBA News...


http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/121206dnsponbaball.1acf89c6.html

Big D said...

Let's try that again, shall we?

NBA Returning to old ball

Christian Thoma said...

Meet the new ball ... same as the old ball

Anonymous said...

The new ball is banished from the kingdom. My prediction is that the "new ball" (game-used) becomes a crazy collectors item for people esspecially if you could get signatures on it, esspecially of the guys who hated it (shaq, nash, nowitzki, wade)


Lofton predictions:
Guyinthecorner- 2 years, 13.5 mil
Chrth- 3 years, 21 mil
Big D- 1 year, 6 mil, 1 year club op 8.5 mil

CMFost said...

Meet the new ball ... same as the old ball

There are so many places you could go with that comment

Jen said...

guyinthecorner~

Lofton offer: 1 year, $5.5 mil with an '08 option of $6.25 mil

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Sheldiz said...

2 years, 14 mil.

Anonymous said...

Lofton predictions:
Guyinthecorner- 2 years, 13.5 mil
Chrth- 3 years, 21 mil
Big D- 1 year, 6 mil, 1 year club op 8.5 mil
jo fer- 1 year, 10 mil, 1 year op 10 mil
mike- 2 years, 20 mil, 1 year op
jen- 1 year, 5.5 mil, 1 year op 6.25 mil

jo fer- club or player option
mike- club or player option, how much
jen- club or player option

Anonymous said...

Lofton predictions:
Guyinthecorner- 2 years, 13.5 mil
Chrth- 3 years, 21 mil
Big D- 1 year, 6 mil, 1 year club op 8.5 mil
jo fer- 1 year, 10 mil, 1 year op 10 mil
mike- 2 years, 20 mil, 1 year op
jen- 1 year, 5.5 mil, 1 year op 6.25 mil
sheldiz- 2 years, 14 mil

jo fer- club or player option
mike- club or player option, how much
jen- club or player option

chipp said...

I heard a short part of Theismann on Dan Patrick a bit ago: with all the rules changes to help QBs, the defenses have changed to smaller, quicker D-lineman to try to get to the QB faster. That's created a disadvantage for the defense against a balanced offense. Looking at Jeff's post with the MVP stats, is it at all suprising that the RB #s have risen dramatically over the past 10 years?

Insightful from Theismann: I think he comes up right on at times, but misses the boat others. From what I hear, I'm glad I don't get ESPN - it's better on the radio anyway (every Thursday and Monday)!

Anonymous said...

Lofton predictions:
Guyinthecorner- 2 years, 13.5 mil
Chrth- 3 years, 21 mil
Big D- 1 year, 6 mil, 1 year club op 8.5 mil
jo fer- 1 year, 10 mil, 1 year club op 10 mil
mike- 2 years, 20 mil, 1 year op
jen- 1 year, 5.5 mil, 1 year op 6.25 mil
sheldiz- 2 years, 14 mil

mike- club or player option, how much?
jen- club or player option?

Anonymous said...

Lofton predictions:
Guyinthecorner- 2 years, 13.5 mil
Chrth- 3 years, 21 mil
Big D- 1 year, 6 mil, 1 year club op 8.5 mil
jo fer- 1 year, 10 mil, 1 year club op 10 mil
mike- 2 years, 20 mil, 1 year club op 8 mil
jen- 1 year, 5.5 mil, 1 year op 6.25 mil
sheldiz- 2 years, 14 mil

Jen- Club or player option
?

Jen said...

guy~ club option

Anonymous said...

Lofton predictions:
Guyinthecorner- 2 years, 13.5 mil
Chrth- 3 years, 21 mil
Big D- 1 year, 6 mil, 1 year club op 8.5 mil
jo fer- 1 year, 10 mil, 1 year club op 10 mil
mike- 2 years, 20 mil, 1 year club op 8 mil
jen- 1 year, 5.5 mil, 1 year club op 6.25 mil
sheldiz- 2 years, 14 mil

Kevin said...

I know it's been said before, but Matsuzaka is not a FA next year - he has to wait until 2008. I believe he can be reposted next year, but I'm not sure.

CMFost said...

Kevin see my earlier post he can be reposted next year

Boras and Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein could not be reached for comment, but it is believed the organization views the agent’s approach as a stall tactic geared toward making sure Matsuzaka returns to Japan. By doing that, he could challenge a flawed posting system or bring the pitcher back to the United States as a complete free agent after the 2008 season.
Matsuzaka, who already has bid farewell to the Seibu Lions, also may opt to go through the posting system next year with Boras or a different agent.

CMFost said...

As for Lofton knowing how money is flying


2 years at 15 Million
$7 Mill for year one
$8 Mill for year two
with an option year in year 3 worth 9 Million or a buyout of $3 Million

Anonymous said...

How 'bout this:
Between LdT and Brees, whoever beats his record by more percentage-wise gets the MVP.

Right now, it's LdT on-pace to beat his by ten percent more than Brees beats his. And anyone saying that one record is more hallowed than another, am I missing something, or have both statistics been recorded just as long, and been subject to just as many challengers? Both are, in the history of the NFL, the best that anyone could ever do at that position.

Anonymous said...

Lofton predictions:
Guyinthecorner- 2 years, 13.5 mil
Chrth- 3 years, 21 mil
Big D- 1 year, 6 mil, 1 year club op 8.5 mil
jo fer- 1 year, 10 mil, 1 year club op 10 mil
mike- 2 years, 20 mil, 1 year club op 8 mil
jen- 1 year, 5.5 mil, 1 year club op 6.25 mil
sheldiz- 2 years, 14 mil
cmfrost- 2 years, 15 mil, 1 year club op 9 mil or 3 mil buyout

Christian Thoma said...

It looks like we were way off:

"Free agent Kenny Lofton reached a preliminary agreement Monday on a one-year deal with the Texas Rangers worth about $6 million.

The deal for the center fielder was confirmed by a person familiar with the negotiations. The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the agreement was pending a physical on the 39-year-old Lofton, a six-time All-Star."

Big D may have nailed it, although no word on any options for 2008.

Anonymous said...

BIG D IS THE WINNER
of the first free agent signing competition as he hits the nail on the head with the 1 year, 6 million dollar contract that the Rangers signed Kenny Lofton to.

To the other players, better luck next time. And there will be a next time.

Maybe the next will be Jeff Suppan and the Pirates tomorrow.

Big D said...

Wow. This is so unexpected. I have so many people to thank for this...

I'm 2-2 on my free agency predictions (nailed the Matsuzaka posting bid too).

Gee, it's almost like I know what I'm talking about or something. :)

Anonymous said...

Can't they share the award?

LT hands down the Offensive Player of the Year...

ROY is basically Bush, Colston, Young, and...

Devin Hester...

The MNF crew are starting the Hester for ROY campaigns.

What about the AI trade? His locker's cleaned out.

Shoebootie said...

Everytime somebody tries to use the literal translation of the words "Most Valuable Player" to argue against the best player in a sport getting the award in favor of somebody who is "more valuable" to their team it drives me crazy. "Most Valuable Player" is what somebody a long time ago decided to name the award for the best player in a sport, and the name stuck. It is definitely more catchy than "Best Player". But the fact of the matter is these awards were always meant to honor the best player in a sport, not some completely ambiguous most valuable player to his team. It is only in recent times of talking heads trying to be contrary and controversial that people have decide to use this literal translation of the words in the title to argue about it. LT is the Best player in the NFL and deserves the MVP award because it was always meant to award the best player!!!