Sunday, November 02, 2008

The Path to CFB Title Game: 8 Teams Left

I was futzing around with the theory below. Please take a look and let me know in what way I need to adjust the parameters...

Only 8 teams have a legitimate chance to make the national title game, and only 2 control their own destiny, though 2 others are close. Here is how things lay out:

Destiny Controlled: If they simply win out, regardless of what anyone else does, they should make the national title game.

1. Texas Tech: Win out, they're in.
2. Alabama: Win out, they're in

Needs help, but not much:
3. Penn State: Win out AND needs EITHER Bama or TX Tech to lose.

(Yes, this presumes that if Texas Tech, Alabama and Penn State all go unbeaten, Penn State would be on the outside looking in. I think we could all agree that is reasonable.)

Needs help, but best shot of all 1-loss teams:
4. Florida: Win out (assumes beating Alabama in SEC CG) plus EITHER Texas Tech OR Penn State loses.

(Yes, this presumes that a 1-loss Florida team that wins the SEC title game over Alabama would be ranked ahead of a 1-loss Big 12 champ -- especially if Alabama goes into it unbeaten.)

Needs substantial help:
5. Texas: Win out;TX Tech loses, but NOT to Okla or Okla St; PLUS a loss by Penn State OR a loss by Alabama before the SEC CG + Florida losing again.

Needs a lot of help, in the form of Texas losing again PLUS:
6.Oklahoma: Win out (incl. beating TX Tech)
7. Oklahoma St: Win out (incl. beating TX Tech)

Needs a ton of help:
8. USC: Win out; needs Penn St to lose; needs TX Tech to lose twice; needs Florida to lose again; needs Bama to lose; and needs BOTH Texas and Oklahoma to lose again.

1 comment:

Steve said...

2 loss SEC team or Big 12 team > 1 loss USC.