Only 8 teams have a legitimate chance to make the national title game, and only 2 control their own destiny, though 2 others are close. Here is how things lay out:
Destiny Controlled: If they simply win out, regardless of what anyone else does, they should make the national title game.
Needs help, but not much:
(Yes, this presumes that if Texas Tech, Alabama and Penn State all go unbeaten, Penn State would be on the outside looking in. I think we could all agree that is reasonable.)
Needs help, but best shot of all 1-loss teams:
4. Florida: Win out (assumes beating Alabama in SEC CG) plus EITHER Texas Tech OR Penn State loses.
(Yes, this presumes that a 1-loss Florida team that wins the SEC title game over Alabama would be ranked ahead of a 1-loss Big 12 champ -- especially if Alabama goes into it unbeaten.)
Needs substantial help:
5. Texas: Win out;TX Tech loses, but NOT to Okla or Okla St; PLUS a loss by Penn State OR a loss by Alabama before the SEC CG + Florida losing again.
Needs a lot of help, in the form of Texas losing again PLUS:
6.Oklahoma: Win out (incl. beating TX Tech)
Needs a ton of help:
8. USC: Win out; needs Penn St to lose; needs TX Tech to lose twice; needs Florida to lose again; needs Bama to lose; and needs BOTH Texas and Oklahoma to lose again.