Saturday (Very) Quickie

Wow, for the second straight Saturday, Georgetown is just throttling a Top 10 opponent in D.C. Last week it was Duke; this week it's Villanova -- a much better team than Duke.

So yeah: Chauncey Billups (39 pts vs. LAL) deserved that All-Star fill-in spot for Chris Paul.

The Mariners are giving Erik Bedard another try -- he's a bit like Ben Sheets: He's probably not going to stay healthy, but if he is healthy, he could be productive.

The Tebow Super Bowl ad will run in the high-profile 1st quarter. Prediction: It will be the ad that everyone is talking about on Monday -- as it was the ad everyone was talking about last week.

The Saturday before the Super Bowl is particularly slow, like everyone is just laying low before diving headfirst into tomorrow.

-- D.S.

Quickie: Can You NOT Root for Saints?

Some (or many) of you may argue with my contention that if the Saints win the Super Bowl, it would be the most meaningful championship in NFL history, possibly sports history.

(That feels like a classic piece of Quickie "instant history.")

But I'd be curious if any of you disagree that this Super Bowl has a greater disparity between rooting interests than any championship game before it.

Aside from Colts fans, it's very hard to find someone not rooting for the Saints.

Partly, that's because the Saints have few "natural enemies" among other fanbases. And that's because they were so prototypically bad for so long. And that's why the Saints winning matters.

Yes, there's a sense of post-Katrina sympathy. But I think most football fans feel good for the Saints and their fans because of the legacy of horrible football, finally being upended.

And so while more people than not think the Colts will win the game -- in today's SN column, I pick the Saints to beat the Colts, 34-28 -- almost everyone WANTS the Saints to win.

*****

There are plenty of other storylines -- I covered them in Monday's column: Manning's destiny, Manning vs. Brees, the Colts' formerly anonymous WRs, Dwight Freeney, Reggie Bush, the Saints' opportunistic D, the Bill Parcells tree vs. the Tony Dungy tree, the Tim Tebow abortion ad, all the other ads.

I think my personal favorite storyline is that this is really the first "Twitter Super Bowl."

Two years ago, I was on Twitter and one of the first things I did was tweet during the Giants-Patriots Super Bowl. It was a ton of fun, although I'm not sure if anyone was actually following. Last year it was a little more active, but Twitter didn't hit its tipping point -- particularly in sports media -- until after last year's Super Bowl.

This year it will be overwhelming -- everything will be dissected within nanoseconds, every ad critiqued within 30 seconds, every possible joke made so quickly that seeing it the next morning will feel stale. It will be interesting to watch -- and follow.

More you'll find in today's column:

*But Mike Dunleavy is still the GM!
*Don't ride GA Tech in the Tournament.
*CBB's Weekend Best: Nova at G'town
*Orlando Hudson: Stealth Hot Stove steal?
*Tomlinson: Anyone want him?
*NFL Lockout a near-certainty?
*What will Tiger do first thing after rehab?
*Danica Patrick takes NASCAR.

Check out the whole thing here. (If it's not there, just check back around 9-ish.) More later.

-- D.S.

What To Do With Championship Loser Gear

As most of you know, I come up with a lot of really cockamamie ideas -- most of the time, they have at least some tangential relationship to business, because that's the way I convince myself that I'm putting my MBA to good use.

Earlier today, I saw this tweet from CNBC's Darren Rovell that referenced some news that the NCAA and the apparel-maker from the national title game are going to send $300,000 worth of "University of Texas 2009 College Football National Championship" gear to Haiti.

No, they're not sending $300,00 -- they're sending the T-shirts. Now, I'm sure the T-shirts can help. When championship games are over, the losing team's pre-printed "Champions!" gear is either destroyed or shipped across the world to developing countries.

Here's the thing: I can't possibly be alone in considering that gear the Holy Grail of sports memorabilia. Partly, because it's this amazing "What coulda/shoulda/woulda been" for your team, but mostly because you can NEVER find it. Not on eBay. Nowhere. It has to be the most locked-down product in the world -- it makes Apple pre-launch secrecy look porous.

So my initial reaction was that some enterprising relief worker should grab 100 of the shirts, take them back to Texas, sell them for $100 each to desperate, crazy Texas fans and bring back $10,000 to help the relief effort.

Then, in writing this idea out to Rovell in an email, I realized that this is a pain in the ass for the relief worker. What should really happen is that the NCAA (or NFL or MLB or NBA) should make the gear available for limited time sale at some price commensurate with its scarcity and "Holy Grail" value -- say, $100 per shirt, with only a limited batch available. Then the NCAA can give that cash directly to the relief efforts.

I called it the "You Lost, They Win" campaign, which I think is kind of catchy.

Anyway, to the point of the the post it turned into for Darren: When the Super Bowl is over, the NFL should sell the "Champions!" gear of the losing team and send all the proceeds to Haiti. It's better than shipping them the shirts -- and it sure is better than simply destroying them.

In my ideal world, the NFL -- and all the other leagues -- makes an entire line of these (down to the retro logo of that particular year's championship event), because most fans have lost a championship game or series at one time or another, and the chance to own a piece of the alternate history would be a huge appeal for many fans.

And it would create a lot of money for relief efforts in Haiti. Isn't that the point? Donating the shirts is nice -- sending cash is better.

Thoughts on that? Yes, I know the leagues would never agree to it -- although the notion that it's for Haiti relief rather than to line the pockets of a T-shirt entrepreneur should help. And if thousands of fans are wearing team gear, isn't that good for the leagues' marketing efforts? Who cares if it says "Seattle Seahawks: Super Bowl XL Champions" -- everyone wins, literally.

-- D.S.

Quickie: Big Day for South Florida

South Florida has the Super Bowl. It was the heart of Florida's No. 1-ranked recruiting class. And it's the home of the USF Bulls, who went on the road and upset Georgetown last night.

Pretty good time for the region, and that leads today's SN column. There's a lot more in there, including the Seantrel Henderson situation, Jason Verlander's new contract, Chauncey Billups and the new Chris Paul and the obligatory reference to Tim Tebow's Super Bowl ad.

Check it out -- and let's get the Super Bowl predictions going in the Comments. I'll have mine tomorrow. I want to pick the Saints, but I feel like the Saints winning is too important to ruin with the Quickie jinx...

-- D.S.

PS: Thanks to all who came out for the panel last night. A lot of fun and I thought a very interesting conversation.

Tonight, I get a homecoming with Varsity Letters -- about to finish its 4th year of existence since I launched it in March 2006 -- for what might be the most high-profile event yet: A sold-out reading from Malcolm Gladwell and Chuck Klosterman. Kudos to Gelf Magazine for such big "gets" and for turning the series into something so consistently amazing. Should be fun.

Quickie: National Signing Day as Holiday

Indulge me for a minute (ed.: a minute?), as I attempt to tie today's National Signing Day in college football to something more of us can relate to.

When I was a freshman in college, I participated in the fraternity rush process. At Northwestern, rush week was the first week of the winter term, in January, so that meant you could look around in the fall -- it also meant that, unofficially, fraternities could put on the full-court press starting the first week of school in September.

Now, the houses weren't supposed to do this, but they did it anyway, for obvious reasons: A strong (usually big) class would ensure the fraternity's vitality for at least a few more years, would impact subsequent years' "recruiting" efforts, enhance its stature in the school's social system, etc. And, not unlike college football, some fraternities were really good at the unofficial rush process.

I'm not ashamed to say -- although maybe I should be, a little -- that I really enjoyed this unofficial recruiting season. I'm not saying I showed up for free steaks at houses that I had no interest in joining, but for the ones I did want to join, I really liked the attention they paid.

And who wouldn't? You're a new freshman. These older students are hanging out with you. You'd like to think they were being sincere, but if they were kissing your ass a bit, what's the harm? (Nevermind that the payback from "rushee" to "pledge" is typically taken out harshly, with usurious interest.)

The process made you feel really good about yourself -- frankly, I look back at my attitude that first fall semester and am in retrospective awe/embarrassment of my own opinion of myself. If 36-year-old me met 18-year-old me, I'd either throttle myself... or try to bottle it to bring it back with me.

So I spent the majority of my time in the fall hanging out with folks -- both freshmen and upperclassmen -- of one particular house. Terrific guys. In college football recruiting terms, I think they counted me as a "solid." That said: I did not commit to anything. I got an official offer to join the house within minutes of the opening of regulation "rush week." I think they were surprised -- even shocked -- when I didn't immediately accept. All of the other guys I hung out with the previous fall had all accepted on the spot. It was awkward. I felt awkward. But I wasn't sure.

With the bid in hand -- and feeling weird about what was increasingly becoming a hard sell -- I started spending time at another house where I knew and liked some of the guys. In fact, I spent the majority of my rush week there. The long-time favorite was getting nervous. The underdog got more confident that they could flip my would-be commitment. I was torn -- extremely torn. (Again: Looking back, it seems silly, but at the time it felt like one of these "your life, long-term, will be impacted by this decision." Maybe it was one of those rare instances.)

I was not unlike some of these college football recruits who waited until today -- National Signing Day -- to declare their allegiance. And I wasn't milking it -- I was really confused. After creating these relationships, I didn't want to let one of the groups down.

I was down to the last day of rush week, and I had offers from both houses. I yanked myself out of the process and hung out with a bunch of seniors I was rowing with (the crew team was its own quasi-fraternity, but that's another story). They weren't particularly pro-fraternity, but they appreciated my interest in it and tried to give me some perspective, which turned out to be helpful in making my decision.

I ended up turning down the fraternity I had spent most of the fall with. At the time, it was a tough conversation -- but once I made the decision, I knew it was the right one. And it's not unlike picking a school or two competing jobs: Everyone understands that's how the business goes. (And, later in my college life, I was on the other end of the process, when great freshmen I was hoping would join my house went another way. If nothing else, I could relate.)

I'm not saying that rushing and joining a college fraternity is exactly like committing to a school to play football -- but I think anyone who has gone through a rush-style process, whether it's for a fraternity/sorority or a job or any kind of club, have at least some accessibility to what these kids are going through today.

Obviously, it's a bigger deal -- picking a fraternity isn't nearly as big as picking a college, particularly when the college you pick might materially influence your ability to develop yourself for a professional career. This is among the biggest choices these players have ever made -- and might ever make.

You'd like to think that they could end up at plenty of places and still succeed -- I doubt my college experience would have suffered had I joined the other house. It would have been different, no doubt, but would it really have been worse?

But, more than that, you hope that after these months and months of consideration, they make their decision and can put it behind them.

Here's the lesson I took away from the rush process: You make the best choice you can, based on whatever factors are important to you, then you move on to the next challenge. The worst thing you can do is say, "I wish I chose differently" or "What if..."

It's not a bad attitude for fans to have if/when certain recruits spurn their program for someone else.

Check out today's SN column here, featuring more on NSD, Super Bowl Media Day, John Wall, Michigan State, South Carolina football, Joe Mauer, McDonald's Super Bowl ads, The Blind Side and more.

-- D.S.

NYC Social Media Week Sports Event

If you live in NYC, think about dropping by for the Social Media Week panel I'm hosting tomorrow about the new realities of sports media. It features Will Leitch, Jason Fry, Stephanie Wei and Amy K. Nelson. Should be a lot of fun. It's from 5-6 at Destination (211 Avenue A at 13th St.) Doors open at 4:30. Strategically, the place only holds 75, so even when only a handful of people show up, it'll look not embarrassingly full. (Actually, I've just been alerted that the event web site lists it as "sold out." Have no idea if someone is checking some kind of ticket at the door or if you get there, you can just walk in and take a seat, regardless of RSVP.)

Quickie: Super Bowl Media Day - or Daze?

You all know I'm all for unconventional media -- and I'm no great fan of traditional sports media coverage -- but Super Bowl Media Day is a joke.

First, the mainstream media people ask questions that define "trite." Then they grumble when the entertainment interlopers show up and distract from the trite questioning.

But it's not like the interlopers are particularly funny. Ooh, it's a hot foreign TV reporter! Ooh, that hilarious late-night correspondent is doing something "edgy!" Please.

In the end, blame the NFL -- they embraced the tradition of Media Day dumbness.

All this so we can talk about the same half-dozen storylines -- with the exact same quotes used -- between now and Sunday.

BTW, you can watch the media horde for yourself at NFL.com -- and I'm sure Twitter will have a banner afternoon of updates and meme-watching.

That's the lead of today's SN column. There's a ton more in there, including:

*Why expanding the NCAA Tourney to 96 is great.

*Why Joe Mauer is the LeBron James of MLB.

*Why golf really needs Tiger back on the course.

*Why Groundhog Day is a classic movie.

*And a lot more.

Check it out here. More later.

-- D.S.

Monday Quickie: Super Cliched Storylines

Due to some weird error, I didn't link today's SN column this morning as I thought I did. Here you go, featuring the 8-10 Super Bowl storylines you'll be sick of by Sunday. Or, say, tomorrow.

Sorry about that. A lot more in there, including why I think Kansas deserves to be named the team to beat.

Back at the usual time tomorrow -- probably leading with Media Day or Joe Mauer, if you want some sort of sneak-peek.

-- D.S.

Sunday (Very) Quickie

Just a couple quick things -- I'm headed out to a Bloomberg/MLB product demo that I'll either tweet about or write about... as soon as I figure out what they're actually doing.

*I know college hoops maniacs start obsessing in November, but in a larger sense, college hoops felt like it hit its crazy season (48 hours ahead of February) yesterday. The G'town throttling of Duke -- in front of the First Fan, no less -- was fascinating. But the main event was Kansas edging K-State in Manhattan, which had to be among the best college hoops environments I have ever seen. Kudos to the K-State fans, who were insanely awesome. And what a win for KU -- that's one of those I file away for March. As was Gonzaga's loss to San Francisco. (More on that file-away-for-March stuff later this week.)

*Yes, I watched most of the Senior Bowl. Yes, it was the worst game performance by Tim Tebow since he entered college. It probably couldn't have gone worse, right down to the solid play, in contrast, by "Tebow Lite," Dan LeFevour. No, I think it doesn't change anything about Tebow's NFL Draft stock or his NFL future.

*I didn't watch the game, but how the eff did Andre Miller score 52 points? 50+ remains a really cool barrier in NBA games, and Miller is an unlikely addition to the list.

*Herschel. Walker. (Enough said.)

*Roger Federer reminds us why he's the greatest tennis player of all time, with another major title.

Enjoy the rest of your day. Anyone watching the Pro Bowl? I'm not.

-- D.S.

Quickie: Exhibition Bowls: Do You Care?

(I didn't write a post about the Tebow Super Bowl ad here yesterday, but I did do a long post over at TimTeblog.com -- check it out. It says everything I would have written here.)

The most intriguing game of the weekend is not in Mobile (Senior Bowl) or Miami (Pro Bowl) but Ithaca, NY, where Harvard is playing Cornell in a battle of the two best hoops teams in the Ivy League.

But all eyes -- or at least some eyes -- are on the single-star power at the Senior Bowl (Tebow) and the non-star power at the Pro Bowl (where the big storyline is the players who AREN'T playing). The big question is: Will fans watch?

Will fans watch the Senior Bowl because of their intrigue over Tebow? His inclusion in the game sparked a run on ticket sales -- will curious fans tune in on TV? And will fans watch the Pro Bowl because -- well -- it's the first Sunday without non-exhibition pro football in 21 weeks? The players may not want to be there, but I'm predicting fans tune in (at least enough to keep the game as a pre-Super Bowl event in the SB host city).

The Bowls (Senior and Pro) lead today's SN column, but there is a lot more:

*Kurt Warner's retirement: Or will he pull a Favre?

*NBA All-Star Snubs: Josh Smith vs. David Lee

*Ken Griffy: 40 and sexy?

*Steven Jackson: Yikes

*CBB Games of the Weekend: More than Ivies.

*Super Bowl ads: Focus on the Family vs. GoDaddy

*Why Carrie Underwood and not Ke$ha.

See the whole thing here. More later.

-- D.S.

Quickie: Arenas, Tebow, Warner, More

I'd like to think that I don't write about Tim Tebow gratuitously -- I can picture almost all of you saying, "Ha!" -- and yet of all the days when I could clearly justify leading today's SN column with him, I bump him down to the second spot, behind Gilbert Arenas.

Maybe I'm just projecting your Tebow Fatigue (or fatigue that I continuously write about him), but there are two separate Tebow issues this week: One is the Senior Bowl, which I covered on Monday. (Rightfully so: He's THE story of the Senior Bowl and the biggest storyline of the NFL Draft. I'm hardly the only one talking about how he's doing in Mobile.)

But the second is his controversial Super Bowl ad. I had covered the inklings of the ad on TimTeblog a month ago -- I should have put some money down back then that it would become a huge issue in the slow week before the week before the Super Bowl, because it has.

Everyone is weighing in -- many did it last week (I revisited it at Teblog last week, too, an analysis I have adjusted my opinion on slightly), but it went a little more mainstream this week: Joy Behar talked about it on The View, and yesterday Sarah Palin made it the subject of her widely followed Facebook page, elevating it further.

It's fair to say that it has become the most talked-about ad of the Super Bowl -- which is saying something (and undoubtedly was something that Focus on the Family had to have planned for, giving them way more value for their money than the simple $2 million payment to CBS).

While I have talked about it at TimTeblog, I haven't really covered it here. I'll do that in a post later today. But there's no question that the story is "national" and "mainstream." One more data point about Tebow's prominence as an athlete, whether in college or the pros.

More you'll find in today's column:

*Arenas done for the season: Let the healing (or negotiations) begin? As a huge Arenas and huge Wizards fan, I actually hope they can work it out and he can stay on the team. But I suspect that they'll end up paying him a ton of money to play for someone else. Great...

*Kurt Warner retiring: I have said this before and say it again in the column -- Warner is the single-greatest individual player story in NFL history. He went from Arena League-playing, grocery-bagging nobody to a Hall of Fame quarterback, the ultimate rags-to-riches story.

*It's hard for me to get too excited about New Mexico beating BYU -- both are going to make the NCAA Tournament, so it's not like they were playing a knock-out game. I had thought UNM was overrated, so it was a very good win -- although The Pit is a huge advantage.

*One more reason to think the Baseball Hall of Fame is a joke: They are forcing Andre Dawson to be enshrined in an Expos hat, even though he personally wants to wear a Cubs hat. How could the Hall not let the player pick their own hat? This seems like an overreach.

Tons more in the column. Check back later for more.

-- D.S.

Tablet Mania

Like a lot of other people, I'm genuinely excited about the announcement about Apple's new "tablet" product today.

I do think it will be a game-changer, for consumers and even for old-line media companies, which hopefully will be as concerned with innovation as monetization.

I will leave you with this simple equation:

Apple tablet + Red Zone Channel = !!!!!!!!!!!

(I don't get Red Zone through my cable network, but if I was given the opportunity to subscribe to an a la carte mobile version of it for my phone and tablet, I would pay a lot, just as I would for March Madness. Let's start at my willingness to pay $100 for the season and go from there.)

Quickie: State of the Sports Union

On the day of the actual State of the Union, I try to put together a "State of the Sports Union" -- and, usually, it's a pretty good report. This year is no exception, leading today's SN column. (Sorry for the bad link yesterday.)

The NFL has never been stronger. The NBA is in a renaissance. MLB has its king back on top. College football has BCS issues, but fans care more than ever. College hoops -- thanks to last night's South Carolina upset of Kentucky -- is wide open for March.

Golf? Well, Tiger was humiliated in 2009, but that only sets up a "redemption" storyline in 2010 (not that golf media will EVER reference Tiger's off-course dalliances).

All in all, things are going REALLY well in sports right now. Should ticket prices be lower, to make going to games more affordable? Sure. But if you've got your HDTV -- and your new tablet -- you're better off at home anyway.

Complete SN column here, featuring:

*South Carolina saves the college hoops season!

*A wee bit on Tebow at the Senior Bowl (just a bit, promise)

*A look at SN's CFB preseason Top 10 (Miami at 6?)

*Ben Sheets: This is the new Moneyball?

*What's next for Favre? Eh: Would rather talk about what's next for the Vikings.

Check out the whole thing. More later. Meanwhile, what's YOUR take on the state of the sports union?

-- D.S.

Quickie: Tebow Freaks Out The Draftniks

There is a force out there in sports -- call it the "draftnik-industrial complex" -- that has tried to entrench itself as the experts in the NFL Draft: Analysis, grades, etc.

And Tim Tebow must drive them crazy.

He is the most prominent draft prospect in the recent history of the NFL Draft. Therefore, they HAVE to have an opinion about him.

For the most part, the draftniks (the combination of mostly anonymous scouts and independent draft experts) have not been kind: They are quick to praise Tebow's "intangibles," but essentially gut his skill-set, at least for the role of NFL quarterback.

Maybe that's fair, maybe it's not. Maybe they are being extra-harsh because they get more attention if they are bearish on his potential.

They make pronouncements, like giving him a grade as a "3rd-rounder," maybe 2nd-rounder. Todd McShay makes it sound like he is being forced to upgrade Tebow to an early-2nd-rounder. (He uses the made-up word "overdraft" -- expect to hear that a lot in the next few months.)

Here's the thing that must drive the draftniks crazy:

Because of his popularity, his regional tie to north Florida and Jacksonville's position in the Top 10 of the draft, Tebow will very likely be a Top 10 pick.

We can definitely argue about whether that is a reach for the Jaguars -- or to what extent marketing should ever come into play for a team making a 1st-round selection.

But what is obvious is that the draftniks look like fools if Tebow goes in the Top 10 -- heck, if he goes in the 1st round. Because it means that they are being ignored.

And here's the insidious part of the whole thing: If draftniks are ignored, they are irrelevant. They are exactly what their critics claim they are -- something that draftniks fight like crazy to beat back.

It's almost Zen-like: If the draftnik has a prospect graded as a 3rd-rounder and the player goes in the 1st, does the draftnik make a sound?

Here is where we get into a seemingly odd dynamic: At some point, the draftnik must reconcile their "mock" draft with... "reality."

No one cares about the grades -- they care about the mock. And if you say Jimmy Clausen is going No. 10 to the Jags and Tebow isn't taken until the mid-2nd round, and Tebow actually goes No. 10 to the Jags, you are -- more than anything -- wrong.

And while draftniks are historically wrong about their mocks to a staggering degree, this would be particularly, egregiously wrong.

Consequently, there is a moment of cognitive dissonance: The experts' honest-to-God opinion and the "reality" of the very mock drafts that have made the draftniks so popular to begin with.

The draftnik must decide if they would rather be right or reflect reality -- ultimately, reflecting reality IS being right, whether the draftnik agrees with it or not.

So the draftnik enters a vicious cycle: Right but wrong or wrong but right?

And, to make this all the more absurd, we're all of 24 hours into this process.

(I promise that unless I think Tebow is the lead story of the day -- and it did lead my SN column today in part because he was the lead story on SN.com -- I will keep most of my Tebow analysis to TimTeblog.com. That said: It's not me -- Peter King, Chris Mortenson, all the ESPN draft folks, all the NFL Network draft folks... they all recognize Tebow as the story everyone wants to talk about. The irony, as I noted on Twitter yesterday, is that he's going to go No. 10 to the Jags and we'll all wonder what the fuss was about.)

More in today's column:

*Preview of LeBron-Wade combo in Miami next season!
*Syracuse has the goods to beat Kentucky in March.
*Ben Sheets is NOT "Moneyball."
*Sick of the Super Bowl storylines yet?

Complete column here. More later.

-- D.S.

Quickie: Feel The Schadenfavre!

Oh, I could have led with the Saints today, but as someone who has promoted "schadenfavre" for a very very long time, how could I not lead today's SN column with the way his season ended last night?

First of all: What a game. Couldn't have been more dramatic. When you read the column, you'll see that I actually had gained some level of zen acceptance that Favre was -- on one ankle -- going to lead the Vikings to the last-second win in the rocking Super Dome, thus simultaneously crushing the dreams of Saints fans (and their ancillary supporters) and launching what can only be described as the most painful two weeks of fawning coverage of all time.

But then... that INT. Like it was scripted. Like it HAD to end. So improbable and yet so probable at the same time, it was like some sort of mythological enigma.

(Then we got to that OT coinflip. If you were following me on Twitter last night, you saw my allergic reaction. Seriously: Can this be the moment that the NFL finally changes its system? Or will it take a "Coin-Flip Super Bowl Champ" to make it happen?)

Anyway: For all my talk about Jets-Saints being superior to Colts-Saints in the Super Bowl, I can live with Colts-Saints. These are the best teams in each conference -- we have known that since about the one-third mark of the season. It should be a wild display of scoring and rabid New Orleans fans and media love for Peyton Manning. Oh, and Katrina. Take a drink every time someone mentions Katrina. You'll be drunk enough throughout the two weeks to blur the experience.

As for the losers: I don't want to talk about Favre next season, except to say that he would be crazy to retire now -- the Vikings will be even better next season, and obviously, they can win the conference. And the Jets have only one problem: Anything but a Super Bowl trip will be a let-down. Consider the expectations completely blown out of whack. (But they might just get there in the next few years.)

The other big story today is the Tim Tebow Show down in Mobile for the Senior Bowl. He is the most prominent participant in Senior Bowl history. I'm not sure if that means much, but it reflects his status as one of the -- if not THE -- most intriguing NFL Draft prospects of all time.

We're all going to talk and write a LOT about him over the next three months. The irony is that the Jaguars are going to take him with the No. 10 pick and that's going to be that. It doesn't matter what other teams' scouts think of him. It doesn't matter what Todd McShay or Mel Kiper thinks of him. It doesn't matter where he projects.

He's going to the Jags at 10, and the only thing he's going to do this week or at the Combine in a few weeks or in private workouts between now and Draft Day is clear the low expectations that have been set for him and make it that much easier for the Jaguars to take him (because no team in the Top 9 is going to use their pick on him, no matter how good he looks in workouts).

See the entire SN column here. More later, and if you're intrigued by Tebow at the Senior Bowl, keep an eye on TimTeblog.com.

-- D.S.

Quickie: Time For Saints to Be Super

Counting down until the Jets-Colts and Saints-Vikings games...

*In the vapid 2.5 seasons since Florida cut down its second straight national championship in basketball, last night's buzzer-beating game winner was the best moment for the program I've seen. (Memo to coaches: See how Donovan just let the guys run a play and didn't demand they take a time-out? I love that.)

*Northwestern beats Illinois: When a team has never been to the NCAA Tournament, games in the middle of January can qualify as "must-win" for March Madness. NU got it.

*Kansas State had exposed Texas as overrated early last week -- and UConn is a tough place to play -- but that was a tough loss for the Longhorns, precisely the kind you file away when you don't take UT to make it to the Final Four on your bracket in March. (Speaking of K-State, they turned around and got beat by Oklahoma State.) The only team that really seems to be as awesome as they look: Kentucky, No. 1 with a bullet.

*Anyone see that Georgia thumping of Tennessee coming?

*LeBron edges Durant in a match-up that totally met the expectations: 37 pts, 9 ast, 12 reb for LeBron; 34 points, 10 rebounds for Durant. And the Cavs escaped by a point.

*Urban Meyer's "leave of absence" was never going to be substantial. He was always going to stick with recruiting through national signing day. He was always going to be integral in spring practice. There is plenty of time between the two for him to chill out a bit. The (wrong-headed) assumption was that "leave of absence" meant that he would actually step away from the program, when in reality he was simply reducing his workload...slightly.

*East-West Shrine Game: Kafka! (You get the sense that Todd McShay thinks that Mike Kafka is a better NFL QB prospect than Tim Tebow. Then again: McShay thinks that everyone is a better NFL QB prospect than Tim Tebow.)

*Miguel Tejada back to the Orioles. It feels like only yesterday he was an uber-paid superstar with no taint of the PED scandal.

*Get ready for a week of Tebow insanity from Mobile, Alabama. (And that's not just me saying it -- you will be inundated from all corners about it. It is not just the biggest Senior Bowl storyline of the week, but he is the biggest Senior Bowl storyline of all time.)

-- D.S.

Quickie: Saints Win Would Be Superlative

This NFC title game is going to be tremendous.

The atmosphere in the Super Dome should be among the best -- if not THE best -- we have ever seen for a meaningful NFL game.

That's because it IS one of the most meaningful NFL games, and certainly the most meaningful game in the history of the Saints franchise -- even more than the first Super Dome game after Katrina.

A Saints win represents the best of the NFL -- the most historically hapless franchise, breaking through to the Super Bowl, led by a completely revamped D and a QB who, by all scouts' "analysis," has no business destroying the league, as he does most every week.

(That a Saints win would also mean a Favre loss would only be a bonus -- I'm trying to be positive here!)

I am thrilled for Saints fans, and I am rooting for a Saints win. Mostly, I am excited to watch the game and try to capture some of the vibe from inside the dome.

As far as superlatives go, beyond this being the best atmosphere for an NFL game ever, I would say that the Saints going to the Super Bowl is hard to top among all-time Super Bowl participants.

In today's SN column, I pick the Saints to win by 3.

I also pick the Jets to upset the Colts by 3 (in overtime, no less). I think the Jets' D is playing that well -- my overarching estimation is that if the Jets can stifle the Chargers, they can contain the Colts. All of the pressure is on the Colts. And even though Peyton doesn't need much time to score points, the Jets running game will presumably keep him off the field. I buy into Rex Ryan's mad genius. And, as I've said for a few weeks, I would like to see the Colts get a karmic payback for throwing the game against the Jets (and then again in Week 17).

More in today's column:

*Kobe vs. LeBron: I really don't care that the Cavs swept the season series. In a 7-game Finals -- even with Cleveland having home-court advantage -- I'm taking the Lakers until convinced otherwise.

*Love that AI is in the starting lineup for the NBA All-Star Game. It's everything that's good and wacky about having the fans vote. And AI deserves the stage, if it is his swan song.

*College Hoops Game of the Weekend: Ohio State at West Virginia. Evan Turner vs. Devin Ebanks.

*Yes, that Prince song about the Vikings is pretty lame, but it's Prince -- show some respect.

A lot more in today's column. Check out the whole thing here. More later, and all weekend.

-- D.S.

Quickie: Kobe vs. LeBron, Bush vs. Greene

I don't mind admitting it: It's a slow morning. No really big compelling storyline -- wait, check that:

I realize now that I should have held Tuesday's SN column lead about the NBA at midseason until today, in preview of Kobe-LeBron tonight and in celebration of the Thunder already topping last season's total win mark (supporting my Durant-for-MVP argument).

But I already went there, so today's SN column is heavy on the items that come AFTER the lead:

*Reggie Bush vs. Shonn Greene
*Duke's loss to NC St vs. UNC's loss to Wake
*The irrelevancy of Kobe-LeBron tonight.
*A bit, naturally, about Tebow's SB ad.
*Joel Pineiro: The new John Lackey?

There's a lot more in there. Check it out here. More later.

-- D.S.

Tebow's Super Bowl Ad: An Analysis

Over at TimTeblog.com, I have tackled the Tim Tebow topic of the week: This "controversial" Super Bowl ad he is a part of -- it may or may not be on the actual game broadcast, but in the YouTube era, that's not such a big deal. The news about CBS nixing the ad will give it new life and scrutiny. So what does it mean for Tim Tebow? Ironically: I think the entire thing is overblown. Check out my take here.

-- D.S.

UPDATE: Via Ad Age, CBS has approved the ad's script and accepted the ad for airing. It is worth noting that the ad is not expected to be a "hard sell" or "anti-" anything, at least from FoF's perspective. I don't think this changes any of the analysis below, and -- if anything -- will create even more of a muted response from sports media and fans.

Quickie: What's the Ideal Super Bowl?

So the question mid-week is not who you think will win the NFL conference championship games, but who you WANT to win the games.

I'm of two minds:

(1) I'm definitely rooting for the Saints. Like many/most of you without a rooting interest among the remaining four teams, the prospects of the most historically futile franchise getting to the Super Bowl is a wonderful prospect. I like Saints fans. I like New Orleans -- there's no question, the region deserves the break.

(2) I'm rooting against Brett Favre and rooting against the Colts. I'm a longtime Favre-hater, but I actually respect and admire the way he has killed it this season as a 40-year-old. And while Peyton annoys me, I'd like to think that I am watching the greatest QB in NFL history. Still: The Colts essentially threw an NFL game -- "tanked" doesn't do justice to their decision against the Jets in Week 16. And, yes, I'd like to see that kind of decision given a karmic punishment.

Mainly, I cannot fathom what two weeks of Super Bowl lead-up will be like if it's Favre vs. Manning. I'm totally OK with Saints lead-up. And, while New York media annoys me to no end, I'm OK with Jets lead-up, mainly because it would be so unpredictable.

And so I'm rooting for Saints-Jets in the Super Bowl. How about you?

Complete SN column here. More later.

-- D.S.