Friday, September 22, 2006

CFB Preview: Suck-Ass Saturday?

On it's face, Saturday's college football schedule looks like "chalking the walk" – every ranked team likely to win.

But, coming off my Clemson-over-FSU pick last week, I can see a few "trap" games.*

(* - Oh cripes: "Trap game" is one of the most b.s. terms in sports prognostication. Basically, you're hedging: If the favored team loses, you can say "I told you so." But you're not necessarily picking the underdog to win.)

No. 1 Ohio St over No. 24 Penn St: If Notre Dame scored at will on Penn St, what will Ohio State do? Score even more.

No. 2 Auburn over Buffalo: Forgiven for the cupcake. That upcoming SEC schedule ain't easy.

No. 3 USC over at Arizona: More chances to win over the doubters.

No. 4 WVA over at E. Carolina: If only Steve Slaton could get four quarters' worth of carries. Hell, I'd settle for three.

No. 5 Florida over Kentucky: Even without Marcus Thomas, UK ain't winning at the Swamp. Let's see if UF's Percy Harvin can juke.

No. 6 Michigan over Wisconsin: TRAP GAME! This is precisely the kind of plodding opponent that will keep the game close with a team suffering the classic let-down after a huge win.

No. 7 Texas over Iowa St: Still trying to convince voters a one-loss team should be ranked over unbeatens.

No. 8 Louisville over at K-State: TRAP GAME! We'll see how Louisville looks for an entire game without QB Brian Brohm. Can a team get caught looking ahead 6 weeks?

No. 9 Georgia over Colorado: CU ain't exactly a tough opponent this season, but it still SOUNDS good to beat them.

No. 10 LSU over Tulane: The first of our "You don't want to be playing these guys the week after a nasty loss" game.

No. 11 VA Tech over Cincy: The cupcake path continues...

No. 12 Notre Dame over at Michigan St: TRAP GAME! Only because Michigan State so obviously owns ND, as evidenced from last year's thriller.

No. 14 Iowa over Illinois: The Illini might be the worst team in all the BCS conferences combined.

No. 15 Tennessee over Marshall: See LSU over Tulane.

No. 17 Oklahoma over Middle Tennessee St: See Tennessee over Marshall.

No. 18 FSU over Rice: The weakest, most predictable offense in the Top 25 *better* still be able to whoop Rice.

No. 19 Clemson over UNC: How is Clemson ranked behind FSU? What ass-jack voters put FSU ahead of Clemson? Who? How?

No. 20 BC at NC State: TRAP GAME! I know that NC State sucks this season, but they always pull one inspired game out of their hat. And BC owes the Karma Police...two times over (or two overtimes).

No. 22 Arizona St over at No. 21 Cal: Uh, take the over.

No. 23 Nebraska over Troy: See Oklahoma over Middle Tenn. St.

No. 25 Boise St over Hawaii: Two or three years ago, this game's over-under would have been 120.

Comment Question: What's your biggest question, storyline, intrigue or X-factor on the weekend's college football schedule?

Note: I won't be doing the same type of day-/night-long live-blog I did last Saturday, because I'll be observing Rosh Hashanah.

I will, however, open up a post and let you comment throughout the day as much as you want. Carry the day on my behalf!

-- D.S.

23 comments:

tbmd96 said...

1) Will OSU look as sharp as they did against Texas or will they look like the 1st half against Cincinnati?

2) Can Weis reclaim his genius label by beating MSU with a smug grin on his face? Can anyone claim a genius label by beating MSU?

3) Will the Navy/Tulsa game be over in time for me to catch some real football on TV?

Jason said...

Two words:

Go. Rutgers.

Brian in Oxford said...

Poll inertia baby....FSU loses, can only fall a modicum of spots. Clemson can't ENTER the top 25 that high up....

As for trap games.....Wisconsin's the obvious one. What, Lloyd Carr safe? Come on, now!

have a happy new year Dan....

Matt said...

Should I be nervous that in all your *trap* games I took the favored team to cover? Michigan -13.5, ND -3, BC -6.5. Actually I didn't touch Louisville -14 b/c that one really worries me both ways (Kansas State sucks).

Then again, in all 4 of those matchups, the line has moved in a fashion that indicates the general public is favoring the underdog. So the question becomes: is a trap game still a trap game if everyone knows it's a trap game? If Lloyd Carr craps his bed in the woods and everyone expected to see it, does it still make a sound?

tim said...

You can ask: "How is Clemson ranked behind FSU? What ass-jack voters put FSU ahead of Clemson? Who? How?"

But you must also ask: How is Boston College ranked behind Clemson? What ass-jack voters put Clemson ahead of Boston College? Who? How?

Dan Shanoff said...

Touche, Tim.

Manada said...

Two More words:

Go Miners!!! (UTEP)

Shanah Tovah DS.

Richard said...

I'm not sure ther's much of a story line this week. However, there's an interesting game next week that's going to get overlooked:

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech

Not because I'm a Tech fan. This game is going to play a very critical role in the ACC Costal Championship. The winner will be a leg up over everyone, and with Miami in the dumps...

I know everyone's talking about how bad the ACC is this year and I agree. But, grant me this: it's like the NL. The winner won't do much, but the race is exciting.

ThatAssHatInPhoenix said...

My only prediction for Saturday: If JoePa does poison Ginn's food the line will move to -15.

jhawkjjm said...

Louisville will have ZERO problems with K-State. K-State has no offense and has not played a quality team yet. It's pretty safe to say that Louisville's defense will outscore the K-State offense.

I have a feeling that ND is going to steam roll Mich St. Not sure why, just have that feeling that Quinn and more importantly Darius Walkder are just going to explode and put up big numbers.

Todd Ching said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
jq said...

Dan,

You need to curse more. I loved seeing "Fuckin' Genius" last week. You're not at Disney anymore buddy, let the F-bombs fly.

Have a sweet and healthy new year.

Dan Mega said...

Dan, I'll tell you this much.

Penn State will fall out of the top 25 after OSU blows them out this weekend.

MSU will lose to ND on a fluke play, then the media will clamor on how the Irish are back and rank them in the top 3 again.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame fans would still refuse to answer my question: "How many ranked teams did Notre Dame beat last year?"

(A hint on the answer, its less than 1)

LudaKris said...

FSU offense is horrible, and it hurts to hear Dan state that it is the worst in the top 25, but it is true. Fans have been calling for Jeff Bowdens head (offensive coord.) for the past few years, and Bobby always goes to bat for him.

So, with the general public thinking FSU offense is a shadow of its formal self, how long before the media starts talking about Bobby Bowdens job? He has said he will not get rid of Jeff, so we might have to get rid of Bobby to get rid of Jeff.

How long before the Rich Roderiguez countdown begins?

Kristopher (Tampa, FL)

jen said...

I sure hope the Buckeyes that were in Austin are the ones that take the field tomorrow.

Happy New Year, Dan...religion over college football...hmm, that's a toss-up for me! Ok, just kidding. Now I have to go to confession. Shoot.

Scarlet Knights..whoo hoo! My cousins went to Rutgers, so we'll always see how they do on a Saturday. I never knew diddly about that school until they went there-like the trivia answer to "What is the state college of New Jersey?"

CMFost said...

Hey Shanoff if you are going to say how is FSU ranked ahead of Clemson then you have to question how Clemson is ranjed in front of BC who beat them 2 weeks agao.

The Sportsvixen said...

Isn't it great that Rosh Hashanah fell on "Suck Ass" Saturday, rather than "Separation" Saturday? That would've been a tough call.

L'shanah tovah!

Blockage said...

My take on the college story is how when Notre Dame wins, the media makes them out to be the best team in the nation. Yet when they lose its not because the played poorly or they have holes on defense or their offense was pathetic, its because whatever opponent is playing them is having "one of those special games" where everything that goes right is pure luck and not because they are the better team. Anyone else notice this last week against Michigan?

rafael said...

I don't like ND, but have no faith in MSU. They do need the usual upset to gain the momentum they'd lose the following week...but I don't know if an angry ND team is the team to upset.

NC State won't be within 14.

Ohio State will keep it close for a half. Sometimes, Tressel just can't help himself.

TF said...

Biggest Story:

How many more stupid things will Charlie Weis say? Sorry, even if he did say it at a booster meeting behind closed doors saying you'll never lose to MSU again is just asking for it.

My other favorites:

I can out X and O anyone in college football.

When I was with the Patriots...(or some other variation, followed by odd comparison.)

Joe (Dayton)

TF said...

Honestly,

The biggest story to me is how many teams will vie for the BCS title game. Right now schools like USC, WVU (or Louisville), Ohio State, and a handful of others could be there.

Joe(Dayton)

Eric Chase said...

I like that fact that you curse now that you're restricted by ESPN lol.

sobegator said...

notre dame sucks
what a joke