Tuesday, October 10, 2006

ALCS Pick: Tigers or A's?

Ack, I'm torn: On the one hand, I'm all-consumed with seeing my A's-Mets World Series prediction (from APRIL!) come true. On the other hand, I'm rooting for the Tigers' rags-to-riches story -- and sensing eerie similarities between these Tigers and last year's White Sox.

Stick with my April gut? (A's)
Go with the hot hand? (Tigers)

Tigers in 7.

32 comments:

Keithsrk said...

Your tigers in 7 implies that Kenny Rogers will come up big again in a huge game. I know a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while - but twice in the same postseason? Highly unlikely.

Tigers in 6. Verlander (ALCS MVP) comes up huge twice, Chavez reverts to previous postseason form, making the A's lineup pitchable. Harden leaves game 4 with elbow "tightness".

Brian in Oxford said...

Dan,

unless the "all-consuming" part involves some monetary wager you might have made, you don't have to stick to A's-Mets.

However, it's not a bad pick to begin with. I'm really curious to see if Detroit can come back to earth after the Yankees elimination. (The '05 Angels were the only Yankee-eliminators not to win the WS this decade.)

Neither team *looks* scary, and yet they go out and win a lot more nights than not. I think that's why most are expecting this series to go the distance. I think the Tigers actually steamroll in five, but just because it's such a NON-obvious pick.

Todd Ching said...

Who are you and what have you done with Dan?

Since when is it not all about Instant History?

-Todd (Boston)

Matt W. said...

Dan,
I am not sure about the let down from beating the Yankees but I hope Jim Leyland won't let it happne. Nate Roberstson vs Barry Zito in the first game I definatly give the advantage to Zito but I expect the youngsters (Verlander, Zumaya, Bonderman) to carry the Tigers in the subsequent games. In all honesty I don't know much about the A's except that Frank Thomas is exacting his vegence which can be dangerous since this may be a pitcher's series. Lastly I am a huge Tigers fan so I think it will be the Tigers in 5.

the scoop said...

it's all about the team with the most mojo.
in 02 - it was the angles (rally monkey)
in 04 - it was the red sox (obvious reasons)
in 05 - it was white sox (no one believes in us, etc)
in 06 -- it's the tigers, with gum time, and the need to prove everyone wrong.

Geoff-Detroit said...

Ugh. Dan picked the Tigers. Thanks a lot!!!

Jeff Rogers said...

I gotta go with the Tigers in 5.

I think they could drop game 1 because Zito is such a junk-ball pitcher and the Tigers aren't exactly known for plate discipline (though they showed a lot during the Yanks series).

I think Verlander shuts down Oakland in Game 2.

Then Detroit comes home to Comerica. Did you see how insane that crowd was against the Yanks? It's going to be even more lively (if possible) this series. It's going to be tough to beat the Tigers with that crowd.

Matt said...

I'm going off the age-old theory here that everytime a team doesn't make the playoffs for at least 12 years then comes in and upsets the Yankees in the LDS, then in the LCS takes on the winner of a series between the Twins and A's... said team will defeat the A's or Twins in 5 games.

This situation has happened once (the 2002 Angels), so it's a lock-tight guarantee it happens again this year.

Tigers in 5.

rukrusher said...

Dan,

Picking the Tigers does stop you from bragging about a Mets/A's World Series if it happens. You can't have it both ways.

pedro said...

dan,

the hot hand? the a's swept, the tigers won in 4. the tigers stumbled into the playoffs, the a's breezed right in. how are the tigers the hot ones? yeah they beat the yanks so what? the a's AA team probably has a better pitching staff than the yanks

Brian in Oxford said...

So much for "Tigers in 5" being a NON-obvious pick....

Lance A Boyle said...

Gotta go with the Mets-A's series. I've waited, since I was a wee child 33 years ago, for my Mets to avenge their 1973 defeat. Stinkin' Catfood Hunter and his gang!

Tony E said...

I dont think Detroit is so much a hot hand... they beat a weak and defeated Yankees team, remember Detroit did blow a nice lead in the central to end up with the Wild Card, while the A's shut down the hottest team in baseball and the trendy WS pick.

A's in 6, Nick Swisher is your LCS MVP

Anonymous said...

the scoop said...

"it's all about the team with the most mojo.
in 02 - it was the angles (rally monkey)"

Angles? Is their mascot a cube?

Anywho, this postseason is blowing my mind. One of these four teams will win the World Series: Tigers, Cards, As or the Mets. it's kind of odd that all of these teams last WS wins were in the 80s. I'm rooting for the Tigers (tigers fan since birth), but it's going to be interesting to see how these next two series shapes up.

I love October.

Josh said...

Lots of interesting opinions as to why the Tigers will win this series. So...let's denounce them.

A) Tigers pitchers are ALL inexperienced in this area. Their first trip to the playoffs in quite a while and frankly, not one of them other than Rogers showed that they had the endurance to go very deep into any game.

B) The A's staff is well rested after sweeping the Twins, has post season experience and, unlike the Yanks entire rotation, does not rely on a fastball to get people out.

C) I'll give detroit a more reliable line-up, as long as someone is throwing it straight and over the plate, but the A's line-up has proven to be patient taking out a better rotation in a straight sweep in the ALDS.

D) As for jeff rogers comment about crowd noise...are you serious?! Do you honestly think that the crowd in an OUTDOOR stadium will be worse than a sold out Hubert J. Humphrey Metrodome? That's got to be the worst argument I've heard yet for a Tigers victory.

E) Bullpen...yet again, not a single pitcher in the A's pen relies on a fastball. And to be honest, who else wants to see how far Frank Thomas parks a Zumaya fastball? Those of us in Oakland are hoping for somewhere in Mount Davis.

So...we have even teams in defense, even teams in line-up due to pitching match-ups, A's with experience, and Detroit with Kenny Rogers.

A's in 6.

Dan Mega said...

Tigers in 6. The A's didn't get hot for the ALDS, the Twins became the Manila Folders. The Tigers beat one of the top 3 teams in the MLB.

But whoever wins the ALCS wins the World Series. Hopefully. I'm not ready to hear about how another NY team has become America's team by winning it all, or how St. Louis supposedly (and incorrectly) has the "best fans" in the major league.

Lets see if any world series winner gets treated like the White Sox last year, who didn't even get a cover of Sports Illustrated when they finished off the Astros. SI's comment on that was the Peyton/Brady showdown was "more important" *rolls eyes*.

Brian in Oxford said...

A. Bonderman got into the 9th in Game 4. And with reliable bullpenners in Zumaya and (to a lesser extent) Jones, Detroit's not looking for complete games every time out.

B. Both staffs are rested enough, when you have 2 or more off-days before the next series starts. Will Harden's arm be okay, no matter how much rest he's had?

C. Good point on Detroit's more free-swinging ways....can they be patient?

D. The question isn't whether Oakland can handle playing in Detroit compared to how it did in Minny....it's how a young Detroit is going to benefit from a suddenly rabidized fan base. So it's not a negative against Oakland, it's just a positive for Detroit.

E. Detroit could easily pitch around Thomas. And Street's not exactly a junkballer. (That's a good thing, though...nobody wants their closer nibbling.)

I could easily say, Oakland got fat feeding on Seattle all year. But they do seem more likely to win 4-2 games than Detroit, I'll say that. If they can pitch, they can scratch out 4 wins, certainly.

Jeff Rogers said...

Josh--

There are a few things wrong with what you said. The A's pitchers have one extra day of rest, actually the pitchers in Game 1 pitched on the same day last week, so there is no rest advantage.

You said that the A's don't rely on fastballs to get outs... neither do the Yankees. Here are the "out pitches" for the first three Yankees starters:
Wang - sinker
Mussina - knuckle-curve
Johnson - slider

Obviously you weren't there at the Tigers games. It was electric. And I said nothing of noise, only of energy.

You are telling me that you would take the A's bullpen over the Tigers? Both closers are nail-biters, but the middle relief of Detroit has been the best in the AL all year long. I'm taking the Tigers.

Tigers in 5

manningham86 said...

Dan,

Move your money to the Tigers as soon as possible. Not worth losing mortgage payments over the green Oakland elephant who have no talent to beat the mighy tigers.

This way no matter what happens you win and lose. You're "hedged" emotionally versus financially.

Tigers win - you keep your condo and lose your word
A's win - sell the condo but gain mad props in the sporting world

Markus said...

I just have a feeling you're preseason predicition is gonna be right. A's in 6, thanks to the Big Hurt

manninghamheisman said...

m-86 is right....the a's lose a lot of edge with injuries. These aren't your father's a's. These are banged up a's

move the dough

jhawkjjm said...

Since you picked A's vs Mets, judging by your track record it'll be a Tigers vs Cards WS.

My pick is Tigers vs Mets.

APG said...

Did you see the Tigers' celebration after winning the division series? It was as big of a spectacle as if they won the World Series. They are emotionally spent and satisfied, and have no shot in the ALCS.

Dan, you should have stuck with the A's. Now, not only will you have picked the loser in the ALCS, but you won't be able to brag about picking a Mets-A's World Series. You abandoned your choice, and now you can't claim the spoils if your preseason prediction works out.

goblueforever said...

Go Blue. Any wolverines here?

manninghamheisman said...

We here brotha

manningham86 said...

Tyler Ecker is back baby!

TF said...

Your who posting on 2 (now 3) names is getting old. Some of us come here to actually read well thought out opinions. Not discuss Michigan football in every blog article Dan puts up.

Joe (Dayton)

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

Dan -

Right you were - none of us can second-guess Jim Leyland these days.

Apparently the Tigers really were just resting their swinging muscles for the month of September, they're still patient enough to wait through junk to drill the good stuff, and sometimes-considered-ineffective youngster Nate Robertson can go deep enough for a huge road W.

And after a big game from Nate (and a real gem from Zito), with Verlander coming up, then two guys who delivered bigtime last week, I wonder if anyone is still prepared to suggest that the A's have a pitching edge in this series, or that the Tigers are cruising into a letdown.

Who's hot now?
Kitties in 4.

Anonymous said...

thank you god

Go Big Red

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

~4 items down in this Elias Says article over on espn.com, there's a story about an effective Jim Leyland trip to the mound. I just wanted to mention that this happens all the time around here. I think a lot of people in Detroit felt just fine about a 2-on, no-out jam, as soon as Leyland trotted out there.

So whoever ripped JL in the Torre discussion... whatever it is that a manager needs to have to make players play their best, Leyland has it.

kaimanawa said...

looks like the A's decided to train in San Diego on those days off... was Detroit really playing the Padres in disguise?

0 for 13 w RISP... 2nd/3rd no outs? K, K, K.. Hit into 4 DPs/9 possible, nearly a .500 average!

Joe (Livonia, MI) said...

I will be second-guessing Jim Leyland if Neifi Perez is at SS for Game 2, even if Neifi hits for the cycle. Damn, Neifi is awful.