Sunday, October 15, 2006

Unsurprising First BCS Rankings:
Ohio St, USC are 1-2

Biggest surprise of the first BCS rankings? What a boost Auburn got from beating Florida: No. 4, behind Ohio St, USC and Michigan in that order.

No surprise: Ohio St and USC seemingly control their own destiny. Win out and find a spot in the BCS title game. Of course, Ohio St has to get through Michigan and USC has to get past Cal, Oregon AND Notre Dame.

Biggest screw-job? West Virginia, unbeaten and ranked all of No. 5, behind one-loss Auburn and ahead of one-loss Florida. Even if they run the table, how is West Virginia expected to climb over a one-loss team if they're not even above them right now?

(Actually, that probably has everything to do with Auburn's tough strength of schedule and WVA's...well, not. A WVA win over L'ville combined with an unbeaten season should help their cause... but will it be enough?)

Other observations:

Everyone seems to think Texas is so great, yet the BCS ranking has them 9th, barely fending off Cal and Tennessee, and only the fourth-best one-loss team. Translation? Don't expect Texas to jump all of them to get a rematch with Ohio St in the BCS title game.

Got to love Boise St and Rutgers at No. 15 and No. 16., better than their human poll standings right now.

The computers' evaluation (and how it deviates from the human polls) is always pretty fascinating: Ohio St. No. 3? WVA No. 14? Crazy stuff.)

And perhaps the biggest shocker of all? Tulsa (5-1) at No. 25. 33rd in the Harris poll. Unranked in the coaches' poll. Yet so beloved by the computers as to vault them, at the very least, into the only Top 25 that matters for now. I love it.

-- D.S.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

outside of the top 10 doesn't matter in the BCS if I recall correctly.

When was the last time a team outside of the initial top 10 rankings made it to the NC? Has it happened?

I could really care less about Tulsa at 25, unless it is symptomatic of a larger problem with the computer polls.

What concerns me is ND lurking in 8th. USC being the only team left on their schedule that can give them trouble, and we have all written off the Trojans as being overrated and possibly losing to ND (I would say probably, but the game is in SoCal).

If the Big East beats up on one another and OSU beats Michigan, then ND could wind up in the desert. Of course we know how that story goes from last year.

How the HELL is OSU third in the computer polls?

How the hell can the "coaches" (read, S.I.D.'s) poll honestly vote USC @ 2? Where is the east coast bias I always hear about?

There needs to be transparency in the coaches poll, and right now.

Cody said...

I would have to rank Texas as the biggest screw-job. Lose to the #1 team in the counrty, blow everybody else out and your left at #9, four spots worse than the Coach's and AP polls.

ND was blown out by Michigan and MSU had to implode for them to win and they are #8?

WVU is right about the same spot in the BCS as the Coach's and AP polls. Unfair?-maybe, but not a huge discrepancy between polls either.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

Have I mentioned I love the BCS? Well, I love the BCS. Sure looks to me like if USC manages to lose, and the Gators manage to win out, a spot in the title game would be well within reach. I love the computers, all not taking when you lost into account. Hurray feelingless, godless counting machines!

Anonymous said...

if a -0 loss team plays a -1 loss team in the title game, and the -1 loss team wins they should have to do it again the next week :)

rafael said...

The computer polls are far more unbiased than the human polls. So I like seeing the little guys in the BCS T25.

The way the season is looking... Michigan vs Ohio State will be the national title game in November.

rukrusher said...

My only question is this.

If Rutgers has a perfect season, i.e beats Pitt, Louisville and West Virginia are they just as likely to be number 2 as West Virginia or Louisville doing the same thing? My guess is no, and I will not lose sleep over it because as a RU fan I will be happy with 9-3, a very reachable goal at this point.

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

ruk -

I really wanted to say the chances have to be similar. The computers are treating Rutgers better than the idiots... errr, people; and the people have been ignoring the struggles of WVa all year and keeping them in the top 5, so they'll have to give Rutgers some credit if they take down the Mountaineers, to say nothing of Louisville (after Louisville sends WVa packing).

Meanwhile, the only way Louisville or WVa gets into the 2-spot is with a USC loss (plus, the UM-OSU loser has to fall more than a spot).

However, I notice that the computers like Auburn and Florida a whole lot more than they like the Knights. Maybe (obviously) Rutgers's strength of schedule will pick up in the next month, but at this point it looks like the SEC teams are much more in control of their own destinies.

I'm impressed by your groundedness, though. I hope Rutgers gets everything they earn this year.

rukrusher said...

The RU-Pitt game is the one I have been waiting for this year. I know third place in the Big East is a minor goal but if Schiano was able to get this squad to 10-2 he should be coach of the year.

Keithsrk said...

Here's what I don't get....what is the voter/computer fascination with the SEC? I did a brief review of the schedules of the top teams in the SEC and found the most impressive win out-of-conference was Washington State. Washington State? Throw in the USC beatdown of Arkansas and maybe the SEC isn't as good as everyone thinks.

Todd Ching said...

Boise State wouldn't be a .500 team if they were in the SEC. Seriously, they had a home game for a bowl last year, and lost to the 4th best team in the ACC in BC. For some reason people just like the blue turf... most people who tout them and like them have probably never even seen them play.

rukrusher said...

I agree with your basic point about the SEC, however Tennesee beat California as well. But the SEC whines about the BCS and how tough the SEC is and then never plays big games against the Big Ten or Big 12.

Keithsrk said...

Ahhh...good point - I forgot about the Cal game.

The Big 10 still has wins over Texas and Notre Dame (and even MSU beat Pitt, which is better than anything the SEC has done outside of the Cal game).

The Pac 10 has wins over Arkansas and Oklahoma (sketchy, I know).

I don't see the quality wins that would equate to the lofty perception of the SEC.

Keithsrk said...

Oh - and on the Schiano thing, I think he's coach of the year already.

Rutgers is ranked!

Read those three words again.

If he doesn't get coach of the year, they should retire the award.