Monday, October 09, 2006

Monday A.M. Quickie:
So Much More Than T.O.

What are the biggest NFL storylines coming out of Sunday? Here's the Top 5:

1. Shocker: T.O. booed in Philly
2. No shocker: T.O. is impotent
3. Bears confirm No. 1 status
4. Reggie Bush makes good
5. Daunte benched after argument?

Sunday night: Hopefully, positive reinforcement (like beating the reigning NFL champs) will convince Marty Schottenheimer that the further he gets from "Martyball," the better.

(Meanwhile, the Steelers are reeling. 1-3 with three straight losses? Don't talk to me about how tough their schedule is; talk to me about how they'll spend that Top 10 draft pick.)

Click here for my quick-hit breakdown. (Or, of course, just scroll down to the next item.)

Boss: Yankees a "sad failure." I'd say Steinbrenner was pretty generous there, unless by "sad" he meant "pathetic" and by "failure" he meant "chokers."

Is Joe Torre going to Texas? They have reportedly indicated they want him, but why would he go to a perennial dud? (Well, aside from the oodles of loot that Tom Hicks can throw at him.)

First, of course, he has to get fired from the Yankees, which sounds like it will happen any minute now. Despite his team's dud over the past six postseasons, his legacy is still secure.

MLB LDS: Cards eliminate Padres, head to NLCS to face the Mets. I was at Shea a few months ago when the Mets came back from that deep hole to clock HR after HR (to counter Pujols' HR frenzy) and win. Mets in 5.

"Pulling a Haynesworth" appears to be the new NFL trend: It's when a defensive player does something totally stupid.

This week, Antrel Rolle is the new Albert, tackling Larry Johnson by the facemask. Let's start the suspension bidding at 2 games.*

(After all, LJ *is* one of the NFL's top fantasy stars.)

MNF: Broncos at Ravens. Time for Baltimore to learn what the Pats learned: That Denver, at home, is tough to beat.

Is the NBA going back to the old ball after all the complaints? That's where it seems to be headed, and it just shows the type of influence the players can have. (Spalding comes out looking terrible.) So, let's review: The old NBA ball is the new NBA ball?

College Football Weekend Review:
Top stud: Florida QB Tim Tebow: The true freshman (and backup) accounted for 3 TDs, including a double-clutch floater in the lane at the goal line, to lead Florida over LSU and up to the No. 2 spot, vacated by...

Top dud: Auburn, which lost its "controls-own-destiny" spot in the national-title race after choking at home on national TV by double-digits to unranked Arkansas.

Did you catch Garrett Wolfe, the Northern Illinois shadow Heisman candidate, last night? You know you're having a Heisman-type season when 162 yards and 2 TDs is your WORST game of the season.

The latest AP Top 25 poll did the right thing, vaulting Florida over USC and WVA to No. 2. Here are the individual ballots.

Worst Ballot: Angelique Chengelis of the Detroit News, a target of my mockery for her ballot last week (ridiculous homerism putting Michigan at No. 2), is again at the top of my "Worst Ballot" List:

Chengelis replaced last week's laughable pick of Michigan at No. 2 with USC at No. 2 this week, while putting Florida at No. 5. Whatever crack she's smoking, I want to invest in it, because it's strong stuff.

(I posted an update about my Top 25 and the Michigan-vs-Florida debate raging in the Comments section.)

"Hindsight 20/20" Unlikely-Star NFL Fantasy Lineup I Wish I Had:
QB Bruce Gradkowski
RB Cedric Benson
RB Noah Herron
WR Greg Jennings
WR Lee Evans
TE Dan Campbell
Flex: Reggie Bush
Def: Jaguars

-- D.S.

82 comments:

Jeff said...

"pathetic chokers?" Not really....

Yes, this NYY team was suppose to go to the World Series. With the greatest offensive line-up in the history of baseball. But lets not forget that they got beat by a team that was only two games back. Which also had the best pitching in all of baseball.

Great pitching will always beat great hitting. Thats all that happened here, the Tigers pitching was better than NYY Hitting. I wouldn't call that a choke job, and I certianly wouldn't call that pathetic.

Untill you add in the fact of $80,000,000 vs $200,000,000 in payroll... Then you could probably call it pathetic.

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

Dan, WTF? Remember when it was "so much more powerful if you make your point once"? It little profits a man to keep making the same half-baked, unsubstantiated pronouncements about Michigan's ranking worthiness.

I'll ask again: why not Michigan at #2? For a well-developed analysis, see my comments on this earlier post (#40 and #41, pretty far down; the really long ones). Unfortunately, I didn't get involved in that discussion before it was too old; I've been in downtown Detroit too much this weekend.

As far as that detnews voter... the USC move is... I can only say, "puzzling." But a guy who has recently lobbied to jump Florida over OSU probably needs to think very carefully about accusing anyone of "ridiculous homerism." Cast out first the beam out of thine own eye, dude.

Manningham & Manningham - stay out of this; men are talking.

Brave Sir Robin said...

Michigan at two makes as much sense as Florida at two. Probably more because whomever wins the OSU Michigan game will be the favorite going into the National Title game.

As for the ball...thank God. I hate that new thing

The heroin sheik said...

Im as big a homer as they come and I really want to put the gators at #2 I just don't feel comfortable until after next week. When we win next week I think we should be a legit contender for #1. That first half was almost as ugly as me, my sister and my mom put together. (not like they will ever read this) Still a win is a win. It just sucks that auburn and ga had to lose this week which will hurt our strength of schedule. Oh well. I kinda hope we get arkansas in the sec champioship game. We need to destroy more top 25 teams to prove we are the best.

As for my other team the bucs, Gradkowski looked really good the more I think about it. I wouldn't be suprised if we lose every game and we only win our showdown at soldier field in decmeber. I have given up hope for anything except playing the spoiler this yr. I hope we can beat the bears only so I can shut my girl up. Im tired of hearing her play her 45 of the super bowl shuffle.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

Who are you and what did you do with Dan Shanoff? Michigan at #2 is laughable? I... I just don't know... what the hell is wrong with you?

TBender said...

AP voting:
Someone should really pull Ratto's credential -- props to whoever noticed this last week. #14 Va Tech, #20 Ga Tech??? #11 Boise State?

NLCS:
As a Cards fan, I should be worried. But somehow I'm not. I think alot of Cards fans are just enjoying the ride this October.

ALCS:
Might be the best LCS no one watches.

CFB:
Someone needs to overlay Bill Walton commentary on Tebow's 1 yard TD pass.

PhillyGirl said...

Maybe it didn't come across as well on TV, especially with Joe Buck yapping on and on...but the Linc at the Dallas/Eagles game was rocking...
That sounds cheesy, but having sat in there for four hours, my ear drums were pounding. The atmosphere was electric at the end of the game, reminding me of the NFC Championship Game in 2004/5. Did you happen to catch the first Dallas series? False start, incomplete pass, botched punt...

Go Birds!

Anonymous said...

They need to lose GM Cashman, not Torre. Cashman only knows how to spend money. And he only gets hitters and washed-up Randy Johnson. He was the one who overspent on A-Rod. Torre can't make them hit the ball any better, and Torre can't help the pitchers throw strikes.

Based on his record, he's a good manager who's getting bad luck in the playoffs. So cut #13.

Having said that, maybe it IS time that Torre moves on (Lord knows I'd be sick of George if I was Torre). But PLEASE not Piniella. He's a clown! If we can't get the guy from the Red Sox or White Sox, then offer Torre anything he wants! He's worth it in karma alone!

anonymous said...

FL or Mich at 2 is too high for either, you homer. i like how u try to call out everybody else's "homerism", yet you got Gator balls so deep in your throat theyre using your tonsils as pillows.

but mainly...
GO TIGERS!!!

FutureLegendVinceYoung said...

Dan just thought I would gloat about your ridiculous prediction of Iowa St. beating Nebraska. I will admit Iowa St. got hosed on the TD they ruled incomplete but the way Nebraska was running the ball reminded of 1995. The match up with Texas could be interesting if Callahan decides to open up the playbook and play to win instead of playing not to lost like he did against USC.

Brian in Oxford said...

I find it amusing that Texas would be looking for him. Do they think that the Showalter-to-Torre sequence is normal in the process of building a champion?

I find it weird that teams would want to use the exact same replacement for a retread manager. (See: PJ Carlesimo following Rick Adelman. I *SO* wanted him to end up in Sacramento!)

I think it's also kinda the same thinking that makes teams think they can recreate history for themselves. Like Dallas....putting in Romo is not going to fix the Cowboys, but hey, replacing Bledsoe worked once before. (It didn't work so hot in Buffalo, though.)

And as a yankee-hater, I for one will enjoy being able to watch the ALCS again this year without the angst that comes with watching them in it. And with Buck and McCarver destined (St.L, NY) to do the NLCS (can someone confirm this?) it should make it just a good series to watch.

Richard said...

Why worry that Michigen is ranked ahead of FL?

This is an example of why noone should worry about rankings until after Thanksgiving weekend. Don't forget that either Michigen or Ohio State has a GUARANTEED loss when they play eachother. If Florida is still undefeated by then, they'll be #1 or #2. So don't worry about the current ranking. Worry about Auburn.

Geoff-Detroit said...

Oh, god forbid someone doesn't see through the Gator colored glasses you always wear these days. "Ridiculous homerism" is making a post mentioning Tim Tebow and Heisman in the same breath.

FreKy J said...

Here's this week's ladder rankings. Note: This is instantaneous ratings based on wins and losses so far this season. It is NOT biased in any way, and doesn't take into account what a team SHOULD be. This is only what a team is RIGHT NOW.

Team / Points / Last Week
1) Ohio State / 1566 / 1
2) Florida / 1551 / 2
3) Michigan / 1520 / 3
4) USC / 1473 / 7
5) Louisville / 1465 / 6
6) Boise State / 1434 / 8
7) Missouri / 1432 / 10
8) California / 1403 / 18
9) Clemson / 1394 / 16
10) Notre Dame / 1379 / 11
T11) Tennessee / 1366 / 19
T11) West Virginia / 1366 / 14
13) Rutgers / 1362 / 9
14) Auburn / 1328 / 4
15) Arkansas / 1325 / NR
16) Texas / 1316 / 22
17) Georgia Tech / 1315 / 20
18) Iowa / 1298 / NR
19) Pittsburgh / 1295 / 24
T20) Nebraska / 1292 / 23
T20) Oregon / 1292 / 5
22) Wisconsin / 1275 / NR
23) Navy / 1267 / NR
24) Texas A&M / 1259 / NR
25) Tulsa / 1239 / NR

ndyanksfan05 said...

So why can't Michigan be two? Obviously the commenters have spoken that your assessment is ridiculous, but i'd like to hear a more thorough argument as to why Michigan at #2 is laughable.

Josh said...

Ahhh...Dan Dan Dan. 5 weeks in a row. Victories by 21+ every single saturday. Which team am I talking about? You guessed it, Cal. Primetime Saturday night game against Oregon. More than half the country picked Oregon. But what happened on that foggy night in Berkeley? Cal just took them out to the woodshed and beat them like a redheaded stepchild. Was there on mention of it anywhere in your columns? No. And I'm not counting your karma boomerang comment because that takes away everything that Cal did on Saturday. So, suck it up, take it, and give a team it's just due.

Also, how in the hell did you not include New Orleans' Colston in your Unlikely Star section at WR or even TE (since that's how he's listed on Yahoo)? He's been an absolute stud the entire year, even more productive than Reggie Bush.

CMFost said...

For everyone who dislikes the Yankees you will love this story on ESPN.com. Check it out

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=list/yankeehaters/061008&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos2

CMFost said...

Why does West Virginia get no love? I was watching College Football Final on Saturday night and they are talking about Florida, USC and Michigan, it is like they forgot that West Virginia is all unbeaten and in the TOP 5. Why can they not be considered the #2 team in the country.

My Vote would be:
1. Ohio State
2. Florida
3. West Virginia
4. Michigan
5. USC

CMFost said...

Did anyone check out this ballot?
Jon Wilner San Jose (Calif.) Mercur Rank Vote
1 Ohio St.
2 Florida
3 Michigan
4 Southern Cal
5 Tennessee
6 Texas
7 Louisville
8 West Virginia
9 Auburn
10 LSU
11 California
12 Notre Dame
13 Arkansas
14 Georgia Tech
15 Clemson
16 Oregon
17 Georgia
18 Boston College
19 Oklahoma
20 Iowa
21 Boise St.
22 Wisconsin
23 Nebraska
24 Missouri
25 Washington

just thought I would point it out West Virginia #7, BC #18

Mark said...

Wolfe for Heisman!

No more oversight of the MAC!

Enough said.

Geoff-Detroit said...

Because West Virginia plays terrible competition. Kind of hard to take a team seriously when their only ranked opponents are Kentucky and Rutgers.

Lance A Boyle said...

For years, I've wondered why everyone thinks Joe Torre is a great manager. Sure, he won a few World Series. But stick him with the Devil Rays and let's see what he does. Or, even stick him with the teams he had before he got an unlimited bankroll and see how he does. Joe Torre did not win any World Series. George Steinbrenner won them.

Cameron (Go Lions) said...

Im calling shenanigans if antrel rolle is suspended. facemasking happens all the time, you can't suspend someone just because he did it to larry johnson.

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

Somebody had to make up for the two #1 votes West Virginia got from California.

West Virginia doesn't belong in the Top 5; I think #8 is actually a pretty good call. By the way, the ballot you posted had them at #8, not #7. Since you seem to have missed that.

Here, in analogy, is "Why not?": If Michigan had only played Central, Eastern, Northern, and Western Michigan, plus Marshall and West Carolina, and Ball State, I would not allow anyone to make the argument that Michigan belonged in the Top 10, even if UM had beaten each of those teams by 70. And if the Wolverines had struggled against any of those non-top-tier schools, I would just hide, rather than whine in public about being ignored.

I'll be watching the Louisville game; if WVa can beat them convincingly, I'll be convinced that they belong in the Top Ten. Elsewise, enjoy that new BCS bowl.

Brian in Oxford said...

well, the funny thing is that George Steinbrenner *hasn't* won any world series in the last 6 years. The yanks weren't ridiculously overspending back when they were winning. Now they overspend and they don't win. Kinda like the days of Dave Winfield and Rickey Henderson.

I'm not sure Torre's a fantastic manager (he sure does blow out his bullpen every summer), but ya gotta admit, the yankee clubhouse is nothing like the bronx zoo of the 70s....he's usually given credit for keeping the ship steady in *that* respect.

Here's what they won't do, but I'd laugh my freakin' ass off if they tried.....Say to A-Rod, we're making you our shortstop, so you can relax. Then say to Jeter, we made you captain, and it hasn't worked. We're shipping YOU off to Anaheim, where you can battle Orlando Cabrera for playing time. Of course, Jeter's a 10-5 guy, so it ain't happening. But if you wanna stir things up, THAT'S how you do it! :)

ndyanksfan05 said...

brian in oxford - you started with such great stuff and then went all crazy on me.

manninghamheisman said...

jon from ann arbor,

You are going places....you're gonna go far in life. I think you've got Dan speechless. Great points, my brother.

I am NERVOUS about the next 2. Penn State and Iowa are scary!

manningham86 said...

Don't worry about it. Morelli can't throw, especially when he has Biggs and Woodley bursting in to blitz him every snap. It cannot happen. Will not happen. He won't have a good passing day.

About Iowa, they are OVVVVVERRRATED even in the new polls. There's a good reason Iowa lost to OSU. Think about it! We can exploit the same weakness Tressel did with our rockstar English coordinating

manninghamheisman said...

m-86,

Yeah you make some sound points. It's just nerve-wracking at the same time. Ever seen "Any Given Sunday"?. It's the regression to the mean theory. I mean if PSU plays very opportunistically and we, God Forbid, make one too many mistakes --- with the new clock rules, things can get messy in a hurry.

My point is I'm not worried per se. Just not as comfortable as I would be if we were playing a cupcake like Indiana or even Northwestern.

Know what I mean, m -86?

manningham86 said...

It'll be okay.

It should be butter. It should be fine, bro

Your Friendly Neighborhood Brotzman said...

MNF: Broncos at Ravens. Time for Baltimore to learn what the Pats learned: That Denver, at home, is tough to beat.

Um, Dan, hate to burst your bubble, but two weeks ago Denver won AT New England on Sunday night.

Brian in Oxford said...

The funny thing is, Jim Caple at ESPN has just posted a thing at Page 2 saying to trade Jeter, too.....copycat!

New England didn't win at Denver in January, perhpas that was what Dan meant?

manninghamheisman said...

Yeah true, true. Puzlunsky (PSU # 31) is a pretty solid linebacker. But otherwise their defense, at a closer look, is a little overrated. I mean they play the same defensive plays a lot. They are a little predictable. I'm watching tape right now to analyze. Lots of 4-3 up the middle blitzing. Secondary seems weak

manningham86 said...

You're already watching tape? I usually watch the opposing team's tapes on Wednesday. That way I can strategize. But Monday is great. Mad props to you

manninghamheisman said...

Just preparing...getting a head start on our game this Sat

CMFost said...

Can anyone tell me if there is wrose 5-0 team then the Colts? Back to Back weeks just barely beating the Jets and the Titans.

robb said...

Worst Ballot? Joe Medley of the Anniston (AL) Star.

He has Auburn #9 and Arkansas UNRANKED. Arkansas is 4-1 in the SEC, they just kicked Auburns ASS, and that 1 loss was to USC. And this hometown punk won't put Arkansas in the top 25?

CrumbBum said...

If OSU and Michigan are both undefeated and ranked #1 and #2 going into their matchup, could they conceivably play in the title game as well?

manninghamheisman said...

crumbbum,

Good question. No I thought about that. Not possible. Because whoever loses will drop in the rankings to 3 or 4 at the best

manningham86 said...

Chances are slim. If Mich beats OSU by 1 point and USC, West Virginia and Florida all have a loss then it could happen. But bet against it. OSU will NOT, I repeat NOT be in the national championship

Maher said...

@frekyj

your rankings had me until USC at 4.

and Boise/Mizzou/Clemson/ND/Rutgers are wayyyyy out of place.

ND and Texas each have 1 loss, how is Texas behind ND? It's not even 10/11, you have ND at 10 and TEX at 16?

You honestly think Texas would lose to Rutgers?

Arkansas beats Auburn, but you have them behind them one slot behind Auburn? Not saying Arkansas should be above Auburn, saying you have Auburn too low.

Navy? Top 30 Maybe. 35th in the Sagarin ratings that the BCS will use, then again those ratings have USC at #1.

the more I look at these, Sagarin the more I think florida fans can calm down about the polls.

Brian in Oxford said...

Most likely you'd have to have some absolutely EPIC game between OSU and Michigan, for the loser not to suffer the typical "drop in the polls" that comes with losing.

In addition, all the other undefeateds would need to lose, and preferably lose late.

I know what you're saying, though. If you're really the #2 team in the country, why would losing to #1 make you less worthy of #2. That's why you'd have to see some sort of 1-point nailbiter, or triple-overtime fluke ending....where voters (since the polls still make up the majority of BCS points) don't want to punish the loser too much.

(I'm reminded of Duke's 2nd championship team in the early 90s....they were like 20-0, #2 was 18-2 or something. Duke lost, but still was #1 the following week. Although in football, it's more likely to have another 0-loss or 1-loss team ready to "ascend to the throne".)

Another bit of conventional wisdom might be like this. Let's say Ohio St. does barely barely beat Michigan. Well at year-end, the thinking could easily be: "You had your chance and lost, Michigan. Now we're going to give undefeated USC or WVU or UF a shot at the Buckeyes, instead."

manninghamheisman said...

We should find out where the Shanoff's live, buy the house across the street and put a big sign which says Florida sucks whenever Florida loses

manningham86 said...

Well Shanoff is a good guy. He posts this blog so he can have an outlet and people and listen but then when we all write he seldom responds. I mean Tebow is not even top 20 with Heisman voting. Putting Tebow in as Heisman top 5 is ludicrous.

Maher said...

@crumbbum

happened once on the xbox for me, don't see that happening in reality.

If OSU beats Mich 7-3 and OSU is the only top 25 team with no losses, then you can make the case for Tex or Mich to go. Problem is, it is better to lose early rather than late in the CFB polls, so that would kill Mich's chances.

Manningham, do you have inside info I don't know? Are we taking a dive to save L.Carr? :)

manninghamheisman said...

I heard that Tebow wanted to go to Michigan but never made it. Even more of a sign he's not THAT GOOD

Maher said...

high profile QB's don't usually go to Big Ten schools where starting mid-October it is run first, run second, run third in the priority list, they like Pac/SEC schools where they get 40 throws a game.

WedgeMcWedgy said...

Being at the game it was insane in the dome when Reggie Bush ran it back, but he himself said it best when he said anyone could have run that punt back, the blocks were there and T.B. was on the wrong side of the field during the punt...

like Josh above I agree while Bush is a great asset, Marques Colston is the star rookie so far for us this season, hes extremely reliable and consistent as a wide receiver so far.

Bush actually looks better catching passes in an open field so far when hes got room to move, as a RB he still trying too much to go left and right before going forward; he'll be better and better the less he runs backwards and sideways on returns and runs.

manninghamheisman said...

Chris,

I never thought of it like that. But then how do so many Big Ten schools have soo many good QB's? Tom Brady? Drew Brees? Chad Henne? Troy Smith? Drew Tate? etc, etc

manningham86 said...

Drew Tate isn't that good. He's the odd one out in that group

Brien said...

We should find out where the Shanoff's live, buy the house across the street and put a big sign which says Florida sucks whenever Florida loses

Because that would be the intelligent, mature thing to do ... right?

Perhaps you should give your daddy back his mouse and keyboard and get ready for bed. You know how you get when you're up past your bedtime ...

Brien "That would be when the little hand is on the seven, and the big hand is on the twelve ..."

Sheldiz said...

Is it time for MNF yet?

Dan Shanoff said...

First of all: Tebow for Heisman was meant as an "Instant History" joke.

Second: I'm having a hard time with Michigan vs. Florida.

I'd say this: Florida has done more on the field to prove its worthiness to be ranked ahead of Michigan. (USC, too.)

Michigan enjoys these SUBSTANTIAL advantages over Florida:

(1) The Big Ten ain't nearly as tough as the SEC. (See Ohio St's remaining schedule.)

(2) Michigan enjoys "BCS title-game play-in" status, meaning: As long as they keep winning (and OSU keeps winning), their game against each other will determine one half of the BCS title game.

That's no matter what happens in the SEC or Pac-10 or WVA-L'ville. Sure, if Florida runs the table and wins the SEC (and SEC title game), they'll have a spot, too. Well-earned, but absolutely no guarantee.

And, by the way, a MUCH rougher road than either Ohio St or Michigan have remaining. All they have to do is win out, then win the de facto Big Ten title game against each other next month.

So stop griping, Michigan fans: You essentially get the chance to play your way into the BCS title game using one single game, which is a lot more than any of the other contenders can say.

-- D.S.

S Pratt said...

Anyone remember Dan's prediction last Monday of Padres in 4 games? I said then, as I say to his Mets in 5 games prediction...prepare to eat those words.

Don't mess with Pujols.

My only concern is that Carpenter will not get to pitch 3 games of the Series because of having to pitch game 4 of the NLDS. If he could have thrown games 1, 4 and 7, the Cards would be set up much better.

As much as I hate to admit it, the Cards are relying on (gulp!) Jeff Weaver for perhaps two quality starts.

Maher said...

@manningheis

Dunno.

Only 1 Big Ten Commit

Hende said...

Dan , your post is one of the reasons why there should be a 4 or 8 team playoff. It also shoots holes in the idea that the regular season is a de facto playoff, considering the varying conference strength and the fact that playoffs should yield more definitive results then 3 or 4 unbeatens at the end.

That being said, I doubt Florida runs the table, and the championship will be USC vs the winner of TheOSU and Mich.

Maher said...

wow. this ballot is AWESOME

Are you serious?

I like Herbie's 1-9

Geoff-Detroit said...

I always like this idea that the SEC is so much better than the Big Ten, when every year in bowl games the Big Ten is no worse than tied with the SEC head to head. And actually a bit ahead of I am not mistaken. Meanwhile, Florida has lost 3 of it's last 4 bowl games it has played against Big Ten opponents.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

No way in hell USC wins out. Not a chance. They just aren't that good. Which is something I'm trying hard to reconcile with the beating they gave Arkansas. The Arkansas-Auburn-USC-Wash St. quadrangle is a great indicator that the regular season just doesn't work as a de facto playoff. Hell, sometimes the Big 10 season doesn't work as a de facto conference tournament, and that's only 11 teams, not 119.

Brian in Oxford said...

Ooh, Dan's responded to comments....another column on the blog coming soon?

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

Thanks for weighing in, Dan. That's fair, oughta be enough to shut us up (at least the logical/sane ones among us).

I'll take UF at #2, for now, and hopefully we can see UM and UF fight it out on the field at the end of the year (unfortunately, no RonZookery to derail UF's last chance desperation drive this year).

As far as B10/SEC comparisons go, I think they're pretty similar this year. My previous comments (link in Comment #2 on this page) demonstrated how dubious I think Auburn/LSU/Georgia are this year. In fact, I'd say UF already beat their toughest competition down there, in the Vols.
So, the Big Ten and SEC schedules are both loaded with "stumbling block" games, but not monsters, up until UM-OSU. That means if a team can make it through without... stumbling, they deserve a trip to the title game.


Anyway, Dan, you make a good point - UM has complete Destiny Control here, so let's take it easy on the poll watching, eh, Manningham's-left-and-right-brains?


Speaking of which... this is the worst news I can imagine reporting, but my high school buddy (and now UF alum) tells me people say Super Mario's knee might not be ok for playing this weekend. That would blow.

Dan Shanoff said...

I also wanted to throw in that I'm going to take my foot off the accelerator on my constant Top 25 ballot-harping.

Wasn't one of my fundamental Quickie platforms that college football's regular season is, itself, a de facto playoff?

Every week is win-or-go-home (or "survive-and-advance," if that's your thing). It's crazy to argue over who is 2 or 3 or whatever...

...Not when there's an underratedly elegant system in place to winnow a field of 100-plus teams down to a half-dozen in a span of a few weeks...

And, ultimately, to whittle THAT group down to 1 or 2 (or, sometimes, 3) by the end of the season. This is why the SEC is so grueling: It's so difficult to go through the season (plus a title game) unbeaten. Though Auburn did it a few years ago and got totally screwed by the BCS system (bitterness reserved for another day).

The only REAL debate happens if (or, as I'd argue WHEN) there are more than 2 teams left unbeaten by the end (or, alternatively, 1 unbeaten and several once-beaten or, alternativey, zero unbeaten and several once-beaten).

I just like harping on the ballots because I think that most voters have no business being in charge of who our national champ might be.

Geoff-Detroit said...

Yeah, let's save all the debating about it until Michigan, Florida, and USC are all undefeated at the end of the year. Let's throw WV in there just in case.

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

Oh, and you win the battle vs. that Detroit News writer. USC up to #2, and UF at #5, after the weekend that just transpired? Does she own a TV or computer?

I don't know why Wojo lets her work in his Sports section.

jen said...

chris maher~ Cool recruiting link. I found my nephew (kind of??) that is red-shirted freshman at Iowa. Hope he doesn't start acting like Drew Tate...spiking the ball when he's not getting his way, etc. LOL I doubt he will. He's a good kid.

Maher said...

Steve Warden Fort Wayne (IN) Journal still wins for his AP ballot...

1 Ohio St. OK
2 Florida SURE
3 Southern Cal HUH?
4 Texas WHAT!?!
5 Michigan
6 West Virginia
7 Louisville
8 Auburn
9 Notre Dame
10 Tennessee WHY BEHIND AUB/ND?

FreKy J said...

Just out of the fun and hilarity of it, here's the bottom 10 teams from my ladder ratings.

110) Troy / 647
111) Louisiana-Monroe / 637
112) San Diego State / 614
113) Stanford / 579
114) Eastern Michigan / 567
115) Temple / 541
116) Duke / 532
117) Colorado / 514
118) Miami (OH) / 494
119) Florida International / 491

Maher said...

call me when your rankings don't have ND 6 slots above Texas, and NJSU 3 spots above the 'horns.

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

Chris Maher -

Call me when your rankings aren't based on last year's results, but instead on a team's actual performance this year. What has Texas done? Lost big-time to (your) Big Ten team, and beaten a number of... Big XII teams?

If Texas is better than ND, freky's poll will reflect that... after Texas has proven it on the field by winning all the rest of their games, and ND has lost another one.

And besides, he was just listing the Bottom Ten, using perhaps the only system that can provide a good bottom ten (or Top 35 for that matter), since NOBODY watches enough Troy games to rank then above or below EMU (yay Ypsi). Besides, Angelique from detnews.com would rank Florida #116 and screw everything up.

If you'd been paying attention, ever, you would realize that those ladder rankings are based on what teams have done this year, since the season started. If Texas hasn't played their real tough games (except OSU) yet, they haven't done much. Wait until December, and I bet freky's results will be hard to argue with.

I'm sorry if it's hard for you to deal with a system that doesn't require potshot preseason premises to rank 25 teams.

Brien said...

freky,

Just out of curiosity, where do you have Northern Illinois ranked on your ladder system?

Not planning to disagree with where they're at, just curious, having lost to the clear #1, but a shaky Ohio U. squad, yet wins over I-AA Indiana State, Miami, and Ball State.

I'm guessing maybe 80, 90, somewhere in there.

Brien

Wedge said...

So in your 20/20 fantasy lineup, who was the QB throwing the ball to one of the receivers and one of the running backs?

None other than your least favorite QB still playing, the one that you think should quit.

FreKy J said...

Wow, thanks john for backing me up on the ladder rankings. I'm glad someone else finally sees that the ratings reflect exactly what has been done on the field this year. The fact that Ohio State, Florida and Michigan are only 46 points apart from top to bottom, yet USC at #4 is 47 points behind Michigan, and Louisville at #5 is 101 points away from the top shows that currently all 3 teams are VERY strong and until one of them loses it will stay that way.

The rules are quite simple:
1) All teams begin the season with 1000 points. (A level playing field)
2) Winning a game versus another team results in gaining 100 points, minus 10% of the difference in points when subtracting the losing team's rating from the winning team's rating. If the difference is negative (meaning the losing team had the higher rating) then the points are added instead.
3) Losing a game versus another team results in losing 100 points, minus 10% of the difference in points when subtracting the losing team's rating from the winningi team's rating. Again, if the difference is negative, the points are instead added.
4) Division I-AA teams count as having 0 points for the purpose of calculation.
5) Defeating a team by 21 or more points is considered a strong victory and results in a bonus of 15 rating points. The losing team is not penalized for this.

john (ann arbor, mi) said...

freky -

I got the idea in the first place, I just thought you were throwing it at everybody when it didn't make any sense to do so (before you had enough data to mean anything). Also, I wasn't sure about how the BS (not a 'BCS' typo) conferences would skew your figures (you know, like the Big XII...).

But one has to admit, with about 50% of precincts reporting, your numbers are starting to shape right up. I'm just shocked that USC isn't in the Top 3. Oh, wait. No. That's not what I am at all.

Looking forward to the second half of the poll's season.

Maher said...

yes, and who has Notre Dame beaten again?

oh and who did they lose to?

his ranking does not take into account the fact that the refs gave OU a loss they should not have.

manningham86 said...

Manningham Has A Severe Strain.... will be scoped tomorrow morning to determine if there is a partial tear. Keep your fingers crossed. Good luck MM and Go Blue.

Maher said...

don't care, don't care.

Joe (Livonia, MI) said...

"Meanwhile, Florida has lost 3 of it's last 4 bowl games it has played against Big Ten opponents."
--geoff-detroit

Yes, congrats on your Ron Zook ownership. Well played.

FreKy J said...

@john (ann arbor, mi)
I fully agree. I was mostly just really excited to have actually put together the system properly (yes I wrote code, it's in C#) and right at the start of this season that I tossed it out for viewing WAY too early. I won't make that mistake again. It really shouldn't be displayed until 6 weeks are played (meaning it should have been FIRST released this week). So please everyone pardon my over-exuberance.

@brien
You asked where Northern Illinois ranks of the 119 teams. The code I wrote only puts the teams in order of the top 25 and the bottom 20 (I only gave the bottom 10 earlier), however:

Northern Illinois has a rating of 1079, which should put them slightly above middle.

FreKy J said...

I reworked a little bit of code to find out:

Northern Illinois is tied for 46th with Purdue at 1079 points.

FreKy J said...

FULL DISCLOSURE!

I just posted the full 119-team rankings for CFB Ladder Week 6. You can see it HERE if any of you are interested.

Anonymous said...

so i'm assuming that if FLA and OSU win this week that FLA will pass OSU on your rankings since they played a better opponent?

FreKy J said...

That is actually correct. If both Ohio State and Florida win their games, Florida will be #1 next week with a rating of 1629 (or 1644) and OSU will be #2 with a rating of 1608 (or 1623). The reason for this is Michigan State's 3 losses giving them a rating of only 978, while Auburn's rating is 1328.

Ohio State can reclaim the top spot the following week at Indiana, even though their current rating is 908, and Indiana is likely to lose this week to Iowa, which will give them a rating next week of 846.

Florida has a bye next week and will not be able to keep up with Ohio State, if they are able to win the next 2 games. Florida will also likely be passed by Michigan for the same reason.