Friday, March 09, 2007

Friday 03/09 A.M. Quickie:
Champ Week Upsets?!?! Meh.

Could there be a method to the madness of UCLA's pre-Tournament mess? Better question: SHOULD there be?

A presumptive NCAA Tournament 1-seed, the Bruins' quarterfinal loss to Cal in the Pac-10 Tournament may very well have busted their chances for a top seed.

But since when has a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament (versus a 2-seed or a 3-seed) ever guaranteed anything? I've hammered this for weeks: Seeding is irrelevant; matchups are all.

However, here IS a guarantee: By losing, UCLA will NOT have to play two more games over the next two days.

Is there a correlation between mileage logged in a conference tournament and NCAA Tournament success? (Or, alternatively, is there a correlation between momentum gained during a deep conference-tourney run and NCAA Tournament success?)

I suspect not, and the most obvious evidence is that, each year, half-a-dozen big-league conference tournament champs do NOT win the NCAA title. And at least 11 of the 12 top-seeded teams in the NCAA Tournament (if not all 12) do not win the NCAA title.

Given UCLA's secure status as, at worst, a 2-seed, they might as well concentrate on the only tournament title that matters: The NCAA title.

(Feel free to make the leap based on what I'm saying: If I'm a fan of a team with a 1-, 2- or 3-seed, I could take it or leave it whether I win my conference tournament title. Who cares? NCAA title or bust.)

Meanwhile, how intriguing is Duke's seeding status? After losing in the first round (FIRST round!) of the ACC Tournament, I can't believe the Dukies will pull a Top 4-seeding. (More intriguing: How quickly they'll flame out. Who's got "first weekend" in the over/under?)

So where DO you seed Duke: 5? 6? 7? I'm rooting for them to pull the dreaded 5-seed or pull the 6-seed and get 11-seed VCU in the first round or pull a 7-seed and get 10-seed Winthrop in the first round.

The natural follow-up question is whether the Selection Committee will factor in the absence of suspended Duke stud Gerald Henderson?

If they're not going to take into consideration EVERY time any team had any player missing – or even not playing at full strength due to injury – they shouldn't factor in Henderson's absence in deciding where to seed Duke.

Women's College Hoops: Pokey Chatman Resigns. I love all of the euphemisms and vague descriptions being thrown around by mainstream media, all trying to either write around the fact that Chatman had a romantic relationship with a player. (While the player was still in school? After they left? Rumor is that the player was still in school.) How much of this vague-speak has to do with the fact that it would have been a gay relationship and mainstream sports media is absolutely, fundamentally and embarassingly incapable of handling that?

Let's provide a helpful reminder: A coach should never have a romantic relationship with a player. Man, woman. Straight, gay. Doesn't matter. Never. Sexuality isn't the issue here; power is.

More March Madness:

Big East: Georgetown looks strong. Wait: Is Louisville the best team in the league? They're certainly the hottest. Great semifinal lineup.

ACC: What the hell happened to Maryland's mojo? THIS is why you have to "Fear the Turtle" as a bracket-buster.

Meanwhile, did Wake Forest just screw my preseason-smart, midseason-ugly, endseason-smart "Georgia Tech as Final Four darkhorse" pick? Because Tech can't make a run if they don't make the freaking field.

SEC: After knocking off Tennessee (which had been angling for a Top 4 seeding), here comes LSU. Previously NIT-bound, I sense a run...

Big 12: Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Kansas State-Texas Tech a virtual play-in game for an at-large bid? (If not, it should be.) CORRECTION: I have been told by my Big 12 spies that Tech is a lock. (Really? Even if they lose here?) However, K-State absolutely needs this win.

Meanwhile, I think Texas A&M is in for a hell of a game tonight against Oklahoma State, which is awful on the road – but not on neutral courts.

Pac-10: Prediction: I think the Washington-Washington State game was the de facto Pac-10 conference tournament title game. (Wazzu won.)

Mid-Majors: How huge of a blow would it be to Nevada's chances of making a deep NCAA Tournament run if they lost guard Kyle Shiloh for the rest of March after a knee injury yesterday in the MWC semis?

(What makes it more ridiculous is that he slipped on an on-court advertisement. I understand the conferences have to try to make money, but can't they keep the marketing messages from damaging the product?)

More MWC: Is UNLV a legit Final Four team? Someone with some MWC or UNLV knowledge please fill the rest of us in.

Stalking the Selection Committee? Awesome.

Update: This post is yet another reason why Pete Thamel and Co. are surging with their "Bracket" blog on NYTimes.com.

As we head into the final stretch before Selection Sunday, it's worth beginning to consider who your "It" team is. (But remember: It's all about the individual game matchups.)

DON'T FORGET TO SIGN UP FOR THE "DAILY QUICKIE READERS" GROUP OF ESPN.COM'S TOURNAMENT CHALLENGE!

More of today's biggest storylines:

Tom Brady: From All-Pro to All-Preg! Um, is Gisele Bundschen pregnant with Tom Brady's baby? Between Bridget's and Bundschen's buns in the over, that's an awkward weekend visitation situation.

(For those of you who mocked me for calling Tom Brady the new Shawn Kemp, who's laughing now? You cannot possibly deny Brady's ascension to Kemp Status now.)

Meanwhile: I appreciate that Tom probably should spread his seed as far and wide as he possibly can (and I'm sure there's a line of ladies who would be interested), but he should consider either (a) condoms or (b) a vasectomy.

NFL: Willis McGahee traded to Ravens. Seems like a good upgrade for both McGahee (who will get a fat new deal) and Baltimore. What will the Bills do to fill McGahee's role? Word is that they're looking at Chris Brown or Dom Rhodes.

More: Rams sign TE Randy McMichael; Dolphins sign K Jay Feeley (Doesn't he understand leaving NYC will hurt his Tiki-wannabe TV career?)

NBA: Spurs win 11th straight. Everyone keeps talking about the Mavs as the team to beat. Or this being the Suns' year. Wait until the Spurs simply plod along and win yet another NBA title.

You will see every self-respecting all-sports or NBA blog pick this up: It's a hilarious parody of that Nike "Second Coming" TV ad. These guys deserve huge credit (as do We Are the Postmen for the find).

NHL: Chris Simon stick-as-weapon hit. I'm with Melrose: Suspend the guy for the rest of the season. That was assault. Isn't there a code among players that you just don't do that?

NHL: Why is it that the only time the NHL makes national news these days is for scandal? It seems their union honchos "pulled an HP" and tried to monitor players' emails. No wonder the players fired Goodenow.

MLB: Who had "March 8" in the "Mike Hampton Injury" Office Pool?

MLB PED Watch: Journeyman pitcher Darren Holmes the latest to be linked to this latest PED scandal. (Doesn't that affirm the Baseball Prospectus Theory that PEDs were mostly used by the talentless players at the margins?)

I also have a question: Is SI.com going to name these guys in dribs and drabs every other day? Are they sitting on a larger list and releasing it piecemeal simply to drive traffic to the Web site?

If you're staying offline all weekend (and with all the hoops to watch, I don't blame you), be sure to check back on Monday for a complete Bracket breakdown.

-- D.S.

152 comments:

CMFost said...

Actually Dan the NHL story we should be talking about is the dirty, cheap hit by Chris Simon last night. I know he just got plowed into the boards put to closeline someone with your stick that is disgusting. If he is not suspended for a minimum of a year the NHL is a joke.



if you have not seen it check it out here

Josh said...

I actually had March 9th while covering first base with a calf injury in the Hampton injury pool, consarnit!
If SI thinks Holmes is going to drive traffic I think they'll be sorely mistaken. But if they are sitting on Dan Kolb or Jeff Conine, prepare for a site crashing drove.

CMFost said...

Question about Duke, if it was any team other then Duke would we be talking about them being a bubble team now but because Duke gets the ND treatment they will be in no matter what.

I will repeat my prediction from a couple of days ago, Duke will lose in the First Round of the NCAA tourney.


The one good thing about Duke losing though is I am no longer worried that BC will not get in between Duke lose and a bubble team like UMASS losing no matter what BC does today they are in.

Daddy Rosee said...

Simon was clearly going for the puck.

I agree cmfost, the league should come down hard on him and if they don't it is a joke.

WeJamEcono said...

Every ACC team was upset yesterday. A-maz-ing! Especially the Wake game and the NC State game. It brought up a question last night - is the ACC *not* as good as before?

I think Duke should be NIT bound. But then again I was born hating Duke, and I understand that.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

There are some pretty compelling stats that, at least in terms of making it to the sweet 16 (and to a lesser extent making it to the final 4) being a 1 seed is better than being a 2.

Also, I heard the argument made somewhere that this year there are about 10-12 really good teams that have set themselves apart from the pack. These would be your 1-3 seeds. Meaning, at least theoretically, there will be a drop off around the 4 seed mark. So better to be a 1-seed and face the weaker 4-seed in the sweet 16. (Of course, I realize that Texas getting a 4-seed would completely demolish this argument.)

As for the hockey debacle, I agree with Mike and Mike that he should be out at least the rest of this year and some sizable chunk of next year.

CMFost said...

Here is something I heard last night that is not working in UCLA's favor. No team has ever won the National Title after losing there First Game of there Conference Championship.

futurelegendvinceyoung said...

@cm

I think that a team with the exact same resume as Duke would get in and it is because of the emphasis they put on the RPI and SOS. So if the team was Wake or Clemson and they had played the hardest schedule in the ACC and finished 8-8 and had beaten teams like Gonzaga, Air Force and Georgetown they would definately be in. I will admit that Duke is going to get the benefit of being Duke and they may get a higher seed than they deserve. The one time I thought Duke did not deserve and NCAA berth was in 1996 after Coach K came back from his back surgery that year they snuck in as an 8 seed and got waxed by Earl Boykins and Eastern Michigan.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

I think Duke should be NIT bound. But then again I was born hating Duke

I understand that's a statement based in your hatred of Duke, but I honestly don't understand how anyone could possibly say that Duke isn't a tournament team. Hell, going into the ACC tourney they looked more like a 6 seed, and now should be an 8-seed at worst. Compare their resume to a team like FSU or Illinois or WVU sometime and note the huge difference. It's fun to say Duke might should miss the tourney, but let's be rea. And honestly, if UF is a 1-seed and Duke the 8-seed we play in round 2, I will be nervous.

Matt T said...

Good for McMichael, I had a class with him in school and am glad to see him do well.

Boo for Mike Hampton. I still like the Braves to win the East (I'm a homer, but I love this years team) Soriano hit 94 mph on his first pitch of the spring.

jhawkjjm said...

Big XII: 4 games yesterday, 4 games with a North team vs a South Team. South 4 North 0. No wonder why KU won the conference title.

Out here in KC we have the "Mike Sweeney" pool going. Since he said that big contract (in Royals terms) a few years ago he hasn't stayed off the DL.

WeJamEcono said...

I agree about Duke, and maybe the field is not as deep.

NC State played a great game though. Sadly, so did Miami.

BlackCapricorn said...

Thanks for giving some pub to the NHLPA troubles. James Mirtle has been detailing them extensively over at his blog- looks like Saskin is on the way out.

Hockey is a niche sport. The hardcores follow every puck drop and every story line but the only time the big gorilla WWL gets involved is incidents like Simon's. No suprise there. At least FSN' Final Score provides hockey highlights.

Jon said...

The ESPN basketball guys said that no eventual national champ has ever lost in their conference tourney first round....I don't think I would have picked UCLA to win anyway.

Bubble teams are ODU, Drexel, Okla. St, GT, WVU, App St.....I don't think Duke fits in with them. I would like to see Duke (and all of the other ACC teams...well maybe not Maryland) lose in the first round no matter what their seeding is though.

Jason said...

I've got GTech in the NIT right now as a result of the loss. I was bummed...I wanted them in the field.

Jason said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jason said...

AND: I've been hyping up UNLV for well over a month, Shanoff! They're beyond for real to go to at least the Elite 8 (mark my words).

Also...just noticed some EAST COAST BIAS, Shanoff. Nevada's (the only good team) in the WAC, not the MWC.

CMFost said...

Was just looking and Lunardi's Bracketology over at the WWL and he has Duke as a #7 Seed Playing Syracuse in the First Round. If that where to happen that would be a very interesting 1st round match up.

mediapossum said...

The ESPN basketball guys said that no eventual national champ has ever lost in their conference tourney first round....

I love stats like this, especially when the complete opposite happens. That being said, I don't think UCLA is going to win the whole thing, but I wouldn't be surprised if they make the Final Four again.

La Rev said...

Wait...Mike Hampton's still playing? I feel like Clue Haywood: "They ain't released you yet?"
As for Duke, after watching them yesterday, I think I want them in the tournament, just for the possibility of them losing in the first round. They are really not that good. Maybe with Henderson back in the tournament it might be a little different, but they were just bad last night for huge stretches.

Kevin said...

jhawkjim,

Wait, a KC baseball player has a big contract?!? How'd that happen?

RevScottDeMangeMD said...

Jason...

I thought you might have killed yourself b/c of the UMass loss!

futurelegendvinceyoung said...

I have been watching Duke basketball for almost 25 years and this is the most frustrating team I have seen. They are not only young but Paulus and McRoberts were not asked to do much last year with Shelden Williams and JJ Redick. While Paulus has stepped up his scoring and improved from earlier in the year. He still makes stupid decisions with the ball and gets beat off the dribble very easily.

As for McRoberts he does have a ton of talent. I think the only thing he cannot do with a basketball is shoot it and that hurts when you are the only low post presence for this team. I think McRoberts leaves after this year and in 3 years when he is out of the NBA I get to read how another Duke player was a huge bust.

Stretch said...

Dan, I agree that coaches and players should never be romantically involved with each other. If a male coach was involved with a female player there would be a complete media circus, public uproar and heads would roll. Am I the only one bothered by the double standard here?

Jason said...

I was upset, to be sure. The A10 still has a shot at 2 though if GW wins the auto-bid. That'll make me even more ecstatic.

Hail to the buff and blue, baby!

rafael said...

NHL makes negative national news because the media doesn't follow hockey otherwise.

I think Texas Tech is in the field, K-State is not.
I suppose, as a fan, your rationale that losing early in the conference tournament might be attractive if it was your team that lost. But to the team and its fans, titles matter...ALL titles. Conference, Conf. Tournament, NCAA. There are a lot of ways to spin things. I don't think a team wants to enter the NCAAs with negative momementum. UCLA definitely has bad mojo right now. Losing in the finals is one thing..but in the first round!? Ouch.

Dave said...

Good, lord. Obviously that Simon hit is atrocious.

Did anyone notice how long the other guy was face down on the ice motionless before a trainer got to him? I found that almost as disturbing as the hit itself.

Todd said...

1)The NHL cheap shot was pretty awful. That's not just uncalled for, that's assault. The guy will at least be suspended for the remainder of the season/playoffs, possibly missing part of next season as well. I'd love to see the NHL undertake some kind of policy mandating at least a one season mandatory policy for any deliberate/intent to injury use of a stick to the head. It's totally uncalled for and disrespects the game.

2) Duke is undoubtedly a tourney team. I hate them as much as anyone, but they're a tourney team, probably a 6 seed at worst given their RPI, and the prominent absence of Henderson for that game. That being said, how awesome was it that they lost, and the best part being that Henderson's parents were in the crowd? Fantastic... way to go State!

3) The reason that the LSU coach story isn't a bigger deal is because a) It's women's b-ball, which no one really cares about; and, b) The media is constantly unsure about what to do about lesbians in this country, especially in regards to athletics (where a lot of people presume that a lot of female athletes are lesbians). There's a weird double standard that a lot of people are uncomfortable with gay men playing on sports teams, yet accept (or even mock) that there are lesbians playing on sports teams.

Matt T said...

@futurelegendvinceyoung.

I'm with you 100%. McRoberts shows flashes (like that posterizing dunk last night) but he's not dominate. The offense doesn't have the flow it usually does.

I'll be watching the Georgia/Florida game hoping against hope that Georgia can knock them off and sneak in, even though no one nationally is talking about them.

jhawkjjm said...

Kevin - that's why I said "in Royals terms". Unless you count wasting 55 million on Gil Meche as a big contract.

I think Tech is in regardless, they've beaten KU and A&M (twice). I'd put the top three of the Big 12 against the top 3 of any other conference and say the Big 12 would win the series. The Big 12 is "down" because its not very deep, but the top 3 are all legitimate final four teams. What other conferences can say that?

Todd said...

@Matt T,

That "posterizing dunk" of McRoberts was a blatant charge. Should never have counted. Also NC State got hacked on their last possession in regulation, the game never should've gone to OT. But Duke lost, so everything's okay.

Unless you're a Clemson fan. Man did they get screwed.

Mikepcfl said...

I saw Gerald Henderson, Coach K and Billy Packer all said that Simon didnt intend to hit the guy in the face. He was clearly going for the pcuk but missed it by only a few feet.

TBender said...

Paulus tackled Atsur under the basket, forcing NC State to inbound to the second option. No doubt they wanted to hit Atsur on a cutting drive to the hoop. At least the Wolfpack ending up winning.

It was kinda like Redick mauling Jarrett Jack and having the ref call Jack for the foul. (Not that I'm still bitter about that one.)

Hey, it's that scrappy Duke defense....

I think Tech is NIT bound, and maybe that's not a bad thing for that young team to do.

As for Chris Simon, Bettman needs to say, "See you in October 2008, maybe."

Cycledan said...

MikePCFL, you beat me to it. I was going to write that Billy Packer didn't think that Simon's hit was intentional.

TBender said...

And when I say Tech, I mean GT.

TBender said...

Speaking of Henderson, did everyone else here Jimmy Dykes talk about how he felt Henderson didn't mean to hurt Hansborough?

Unbelieveable how much Krzyzewski has the world brainwashed.

Cycledan said...

In the NCAA, of course the one real tournament in the NCAAs and winning it is the ultimate reward. As a Syracuse fan, noboby obviously cared that they got bounced early in the BE Tourn. when they won the whole thing.

However the last 2 years they won the Big East tournament and got bounced in the first round of the NCAAs. They weren't going to win the tournament but people were hoping for a Sweet 16 appearance at least. However I will take winning the Big East tournament and getting bounced in the first round over being mediocre in both tournaments. At least they something, got to cut down some nets and feel like champions for one day.

Jason said...

I just saw the hit on Chris Simon. Dear sweet jesus that was brutal. Simon shouldn't be allowed on the ice until the 08-09 season easily.

And for the record, I don't believe Bertuzzi should be allowed to play until Moore plays again (note...Moore still hasn't played.)

ndyanksfan05 said...

i think the nhl wont come down as hard on simon as they did on say burtuzzi because hollweg didn't get hurt by the hit that bad. he cut his chin, but hollweg got up and continued to play (not to say that i dont think they should). I think simon is looking at a suspension for the rest of the season...thats it. i think he should be out for a full calendar year for that one...

also if you watched the video i was kinda surprised the rangers bench didn't get some shots in on simon during the scrum after. The on-ice players went after him and had him pinned up against the rangers bench, where a couple guys easily could have gotten some retribution shots in...but they didn't. pity...

Brian in Oxford said...

The goal judges got even with the Islanders.....anyone see the tying goal waived off from upstairs? My boss is an Islanders fan, mad that the team got screwed because of one player's indiscretion.

Todd said...

The difference between Bertuzzi's hit and Simon's is that Bertuzzi's hit was an egregious dirty play with intent to injure, but Simon's was an egregious dirty play using a weapon with intent to injure.

In my mind, the fact that he used his stick makes this one worse. Obviously what happened to Moore was worse though. Really sucks he hasn't been able to play.

Jingoist said...

Let's all just take a moment, steer away from the Madness that is March and have a moment of silence...

Captain America is dead. R.I.P Steve Rogers.

CMFost said...

Maybe Tom is not as prolific as we think he is.



check it out

Todd said...

Poor Carmelo... he was so young too...

chitown italian said...

Bertuzzi should have been banned for life in my opinion.

Simon should be suspended for all 2007 including games in 2007 for the 2007-2008 season.

And, Simon and Bertuzzi should be cellmates.

setherton22 said...

Here's why it's important to be a 1-seed this year Dan: Since the field expanding to 64 teams in 1985, no #1 seed has lost in the 2nd round in an odd numbered year.

Also, the stats show that #2 seeds lose way more often than #1 seeds in the 2nd round. After that: makes no difference; the 2s will fare just as well as the 1s. But if you want your team to be a "lock" for the Sweet 16, better get that #1 seed.

ndyanksfan05 said...

it looked like the puck didn't quite make it across the line...and the ref on ice made the initial call to wave it off so they needed indisputable evidence to call it a goal which i dont think there was. but then again, i am a rangers fan.

Matt T said...

@Todd,

I don't think it was a charge, but I'm with you on Paulus mugging the NC state guy on the inbound.

jen said...

jhawkjjm~What about DeJesus' big contract? That was pretty decent, especially for the Royals' front office.

Theo said...

UNLV is for real. They beat Nevada in Reno, beat BYU and Air Force (although the latter doesn't look so great any more) and have a lot of different options with Wendell White, Wink Adams and Kevin Kruger (the coach's son, by the way). The one thing they don't have is a ton of quality bigs, but they showed that they can still get it done without that against Fazekas and Nevada. Might be tougher in the Dance, though. Also, it's hard to read too much into their MWC performance because they're essentially playing at home, where they're VERY good. Elite Eight is a possibility, further if the matchups shake out in their favor. Title contenders? I don't think so.

Jason said...

setherton: that's what I call a Monday Night Football stat. It's not actually a stat, it's a coincidence.

And I'm with Theo on UNLV's final four prospects. I suppose if they get lucky with their bracket matchups anything is possible but I wouldn't take them to the title game.

Fooch said...

UNLV is a veteran team (5 seniors, 3-4 of whom are in the starting lineup on any given night) that plays great defense and when they're playing well is a great 3-pt shooting team that doesn't run as much as they did in the old days. They've benefited from the rule that allowed Kevin Krueger to transfer from Arizona State and play immediately. ASU was never great during his time there, but a guy who can put up 15 pts and 3.5 assists a game in the Pac-10 is a solid addition.

They're not a very big team with their centers in the 6'8-6'9 range, but they play very physical basketball, which can make up for that difference. If they fall behind by a decent margin they've struggled to come back, as evidenced in all of their losses. However, if they take a lead they're very tough to beat because of the defense. Combine the veteran lineup with a veteran coach in Lon Krueger and this is a team that could make some noise. Personally, I just want to see them get to the second weekend and take it from there. If they win the MWC I think they end up with a 4-seed. If that happens, this is indeed a team that could make an Elite 8 run, and yet they could also be knocked out in the 4-13 upset. I think UNLV is a perfect example of a bracket buster. Playing games on a neutral court leaves things wide open.

jhawkjjm said...

I'm not a big Royals fan (Red Sox as I'm originally grom New England) so I'm not sure what his contract was. But Sweeney has been robbing the team the past couple of years. Just like Juan Gonzales did.

And yes, Clemson got robbed with that "foul" call.

GuyInTheCorner said...

I sent this email to deadspin this mourning, I don't know if they will use it but obviously Dan did not.

Will-

I am a reader of your site second only to Dan Shanoff's, and have informed him of this information. You may see it in his mourning quickie. I will tell you that my source is not concrete, but mere heresay from someone at LSU, and I have no proof.

I was told that the player that the relationship was with is now in the WNBA. There are nine LSU players in the NBA. All of them played for the previous coach except three, and one is married and had a kid with her husband (not that that is a 100% disqualifying). One of the one's left is Seimone Augustus. She is one of only two women to win the player of the year award twice. She led LSU to the final four for 3 straight years. She was drafted #1 overall by the Minnesota Lynx and won last year's rookie of the year and was also named to the all star team.

Seimone's MySpace page (http://www.myspace.com/seimone33) says that she is a lesbian.
This picture is found on her personal website... http://www.seimone.com/gallery/main.php?cmd=imageview&var1=NCAA+San+Antonio+Regionals+2%2Fdmw5.jpg&var2=1 (not proof or anything)
On the "links" sidebar of her website she lists all typical links: Espn, wnba, the lynx, lsu, top women's basketball blog, usa hoops, and WWW.COACHPOKEY.COM

The other player is Temaka Johnson. She graduated from LSU the year before Augustus and was the WNBA rookie of the year as well. I just heard on All Night with Jason Smith on ESPN radio that the story has changed somewhat to say that it might have been more than one player.

Temeka Johnson is also an out of the closet lesbian according to wikipedia and other places.

Interesting to note that if you go to http://www.coachpokey.com/Pokey/Story.htm there are pictures on the sidebar and there are two pictures of her with players. Those two pictures... you guessed it Temeka Johnson and Simone Augustus.

I hope this helps in some way. If you choose to use it please list me as a regular commenter at DanShanoff.com

-GuyInTheCorner

Thought you guys might want to know.

setherton22 said...

Agreed: However, #2 seeds do lose more often in the 2nd round than #1 seeds. There is statisical significance there.

So, it does make some difference in at least making it out of the first weekend.

CMFost said...

Nice Detective Work Guy.

Todd said...

@ Guy, that's interesting stuff, but does seem a bit speculative, right? Not saying you're not onto anything, but I'm not just sure if it proves anything, does it?

It will be a major story if it was Seimone Augustus, since she's as close as a WNBA player can get toward being a household name.

At least to me though, the who isn't as important as the indiscretion itself, which is just totally inappropriate for a coach and player in any circumstance.

Jason said...

Setherton, I find it interesting that 2's usually handle their business against 7s but have problems with 10s. I dont remember the numbers and cant be arsed to search ESPN right now but I believe 10s win at a much higher clip than 7s.

GuyInTheCorner said...

At least if it was those two there could be no asssertion that sleeping with the coach upped their playing time. It was probably being all-american's that did that.

GuyInTheCorner said...

I noticed that deadspin gave me a small nod with this line

"There are tons of rumors out there about which player(s) Pokey -- Pokey! -- might have been involved with, including a current WNBA player, but we doubt those names will ever officially come out."

Brian in Oxford said...

What's up with michigan wearing the maize? Isn't the blue their road uni?

Natsfan74 said...

I typed this a long time ago, work distracted me, and now I feel way behind....

But, since 1991, 8 NCAA Champs won their conference tourneys, 2 finished 2nd, and 4 lost in the semis. Conference tourneys do matter for going into the tourney with momentum.

futurelegendvinceyoung said...

The Seminoles just missed 3 point blank shots against the Tar Holes

Todd said...

You have to think that the only way FSU gets in is if they win today, right? Probably the same is true for Michigan too.

GuyInTheCorner said...

Not true for FSU.

They were without their starting point guard Toney Douglas for 6 games. During that stretch they were 1-4. Rumor has it that the committe will recognize this and not hold it against this. Without those games they are 19-7 and 6-5 in the ACC.

They have a couple good wins and no losses outside the RPI's top 50. And even with those losses without Douglas they are 38 in the RPI with an SOS of 21.

And everyone wants to see Al Thornton in the tourney.

setherton22 said...

Todd, the pundits are in agreement with you.

Jason said...

For Michigan, today's game is absolutely must win. FSU might not NEED the win (it's pretty close), but a win would certainly lock it up. Even a close loss might be enough. I have them as my my first team out right this minute. All the games with SEC west teams in them are must win as well for later on.

futurelegendvinceyoung said...

You think Tom Hanks helps promote this release with Scolari?

Todd said...

Here's what I have for Bubble Teams right now (I'm sure I'm leaving some teams out):

Bubble Probably in:
Michigan St.
Air Force
Old Dominion
Illinois

Bubble Needing a win:
Florida St.
Michigan
K. State
Texas Tech
Arkansas
Purdue

Bubble Probably out:
Stanford
Clemson
Oklahoma St.
UMASS
West Virginia
Alabama

The Jury's still out on:
Syracuse
Georgia Tech
Drexel
Missouri St.

CMFost said...

Todd, UMASS is bubble definetly out.

Todd said...

Yeah, agreed. I just put them there as I was coming up with a list of teams. Should've created a "bubble definitely out" category like you suggested. I think Alabama, Ole Miss, and Bradley would be on there also.

GuyInTheCorner said...

Todd-

Look at bracketology.

www.sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracetology
and drive to 65 (formerlly bubble watch)
www.sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch

GuyInTheCorner said...

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch

my bad

Jason said...

todd, here's my list:
locks (32): xavier, unc, uva, v-tech, umd, duke, bc, g-town, pitt, louisville, notre dame, marquette, nova, ohio state, wisconsin, indiana, a&m, texas, kansas, memphis, butler, so ill, unlv, byu, ucla, wazoo, usc, oregon, florida, tennessee, vandy, nevada. 14 teams already have auto bids.
7 teams are going to be auto bids with no chance of an at large.

So there are 12 teams bubble in:
(this is in alphabetical conference order and in no way reflects closeness to lock status) Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Syracuse, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue (seriously, check their numbers), Texas Tech, Kansas State, Drexel, Arizona, Stanford, Kentucky.

FSU, Air Force, Missouri State, ODU, one team out of the SEC west, Georgia, Oklahoma State, and Michigan are still in the discussion for either playing in or being one of the last in (though i dont necessarily see it). Everyone else is out, provided they dont nail the auto bid.

futurelegendvinceyoung said...

Carolina just went on an 8-0 run to start the 2nd half

Jerry Hinnen said...

Illinois + Purdue = ZERO RPI top 100 wins in true road games.

Drexel alone = SIX. Barring upset winners in the WAC, SEC, ACC, AND Pac-10, the Dragons are good to go. Purdue's ahead of Illinois, btw, thanks to head-to-head beatdown and a win over Virginia.

CMFost said...



bracketology

CMFost said...



bubble watch

Jason said...

For the curious, looking over the numbers I just swapped k-state and air force. air force is either gonna be one of the last in or out either way.

Jason said...

I agree that Purdue is ahead of Illinois. That said, if there are upsets in just two of the conferences you listed, Jerry, it might be enough to send the Dragons to the NIT. You also forgot the CUSA in your list, btw. ;)

Brian said...

um...no friday commentary over the big ten? with 4 teams on the bubble?

Disappointed in Dallas said...

Quickie Dan,

I've enjoyed your blog for a long time, and the quickie before that. I think your a grate righter. I enjoy coming to this blog I'm sorry that you were released from ess-pin. I'm sorry that you became expendable and were no longer a priority. I thought it was because maybe you weren't getting enough hits/readers, but damn, we had the insightful chats and then look at how many people joined your groups for the tourney bracket, etc..

Well, then they went an replaced you with DJ Gallo, which was a stunning turn of events. I mean, you tell one guy that he's no longer necessary, then hire a guy to replace said "unncessary role"?

I'm also sorry that you didn't freshen up your "bit" before it was too late. Hindsight is 20/20. Unless you have lasik done, then you might end up even better. The shit they do now is incredible. I'm actually getting HD eye lenses installed in my face in the coming weeks. It's a xmas present from my partner. But enough about me..

So I started reading Gallo a couple times a week and have had a stunning revelation. He's funny. He brings something new to the table, rather than treading on the same worn out carpet.

Think of your house (or someone's house with money).. you move your couches/chairs around the room every so often as to not wear out a certain path. Your path is pimped. It has treadmarks like Britney has after manufacturing all her whore-babies.

If I respected the opinion of Bob in Boise, then I know where to come for that analysis (which is nice when you're looking for a laugh after a hard day at work.. ie, babysitting). But I'm looking for a bit of substance. You can only have a vanilla shake so long. Then all of a sudden you want a banana split. Then you take the banana out of the 'Split and stick in your significant others' glory hole and eat. Eat away. Lap up that chocolate and maybe even the strawberry. The real delight to all of this is that you finish up with a whip cream mustachio planted delicately on your face. People know, man. You accomplish the Banana Split Delight move, and they know that you're the kind of brotha that don't take "no" for an answer. Let that ho know that you're the king in this castle, that you're Simba and her ass is whatever the hell the female lion's name was.. and you're proving it to her. Roar like a lion, buddy.

Get your roar back.



Or, if the case may be, let your wife do the roaring.

jhawkjjm said...

Useful infomation. If you happen to be streaming hte local radio station that will carry the basketball game you really want to listen to later that day. No matter what you do, do NOT LOG OUT.

I did this with the station carrying the KU game and now I can't get it back on. And of course 360 is doing ACC and Big 10.

Todd said...

Sweet, my boss said I can go home and watch the BC game. Nice...

Fair points about Illinois. They need a win to feel better.

IkeKrizzule said...

Didn't Shawn Kemp have like 7 kids? So now Brady has one (probably) with Bridget and one (allegedly) with Giselle. So assuming he's at 2, that still leaves Kemp .v. Brady in the battle of knocking chicks up 7-2.

Its like comparing Chuck Daly to Red Auerbach. Sure Chuck won a couple of titles, but he would still have a long way to go to get to Red.

CMFost said...

Todd, What time does the BC Game Start?

GuyInTheCorner said...

Here's where we are now.

Let's assume that Memphis wins the CUSA and Akron wins the MAC and Nevada wins the WAC and that Xavier wins the A-10 and that no team makes a crazy run at a big conference tourney who isn't already in. That makes 21 conferences (Big Sky, SWAC, Northeast, A-Sun, Big West, Sunbelt, MAAC, OVC, Sothland, IVY, A-East, Southern, Patriot, MAC, Mid-Con, Big South, MEAC, West Coast, A-10, C-USA, WAC) that have one bid.

Then you have the 3 conferences with auto bids locked and the chance someone else gets in. This is the CAA, Horizon, and Missouri Valley. You get Wright St., Creighton, VCU as auto bids and put ODU, Drexel, and Missouri St. on the bubble and Butler and So ILL as locks. Also assume UNLV or BYU wins the Mountain West. Whoever doesn't win is a lock and Air Force is on the bubble.

We now have gone through 25 conferences and have 28 teams in and 4 on the bubble.

The 6 remaining conferences are the BCS. According to Bubble Watch, their are 32 teams as locks and should be ins. We will take their word for it because they are very smart.

The teams that are on the bubble for these conferences include: Florida State, West Virginia, Illinois, Michigan, Purdue, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi St., and Ole Miss.

So there you have it. 60 bids locked up. 5 left. 15 on the bubble.

Glad I could help.

CMFost said...

IKE, Remeber Brady is still young and has plenty of time to have more children. It is not unrealistic to think he could be prolific enough to equal or exceed Kemp

Jason said...

Thanks for saving us the time, Guy...but it's more fun for me if I guess myself. ;)

setherton22 said...

As a Buckeye fan, I was a little worried about the new unis after seeing Syracuse's gawd-awful digs (seriously, the silver numbers? you can't even read them), but I have to say they are pretty sweet and an upgrade on the old ones.

marcomarco said...

(For those of you who mocked me for calling Tom Brady the new Shawn Kemp, who's laughing now? You cannot possibly deny Brady's ascension to Kemp Status now.)

Take it easy shanny-boy. Brady needs about 12 more kids to ascend to Kemp status.

Arguably, none of Kemp's Baby Momma's crack 7's on the hotness scale.

Bridget and Gisele are 10's.

GuyInTheCorner said...

It is fun to guess Jason but I thought I'd figure it out for myself bid by bid to see how truly loaded the bubble is.

I know we are still two days away but remember only two years ago when it was 64 bids locked up and 2 on the bubble? That wasn't any fun.

I like 60 locks 15 on the bubble.

CMFost said...

Ok, Guy so what happens when we have that 1 or 2 teams that wins a Conference Tourney that is not supposed to.

futurelegendvinceyoung said...

IKE I am going to add to what cmfost said about Brady. Not only is he younger but he also has better quality girls that he has knocked up or may have knocked up.

Now I am assuming all of this because we all know what Gisele and Bridget look like and I do not know what the girls that Kemp hooked up with look like.

shpiders said...

Looks like Michigan is NIT bound. Their bubble has popped.

Jason said...

The bubble has been loaded for a few days but a lot of teams have played themselves completely off in my view and don't deserve to be mentioned any more as having reasonable shots (Clemson, Alabama, and in a few seconds Michigan come to mind). Drive to 65 is a good starter (and Lunardi is a genius) but I think Glockner doesn't move fast enough. It's like he spares reader's feelings. No sane person would consider Clemson a bubble team any more.

Jason said...

I'm with Shpiders. Michigan is now NIT bound.

And for Dan, who yesterday thought them in: 8-8 Big Ten. No big NC wins. Only 4 of the Big Ten wins were even decent (Indiana, Mich St, Purdue, Illinois) and they couldn't get either of the big dogs. They're out.

CMFost said...

ESPN is reporting that Chris Simon as been suspended indefinetly.



here is the story



good for the league acting quickly.

CMFost said...

So Much for Oklahoma giving Kansas I game. Kansas Had a 2 point lead at half, and are know up 20. Looks like Kansas is one step closer to the #1 Seed

futurelegendvinceyoung said...

Dan you have to call your former employer on this bullshit.

Mikepcfl said...

...and somewhere Gerald Henderson is happy he isnt a hockey player.

Jason said...

Now that FSU-UNC is over, FSU is still in the bubble conversation imo but they're behind a whole bunch of teams. Likely NIT bound, but stranger things have happened.

futurelegendvinceyoung said...

Mike and somewhere Gary Williams's shirt and jacket are glad they won't play until next week.

Todd said...

Lots of physical play early between BC and Miami. To be expected I suppose. Miami needs to rebound well on the offensive glass, and BC needs to get Dudley established early (or Marshall established at all).

Jason said...

MS State is beating Kentucky. The Bulldogs might have a shot an at-large (better than almost anyone in the SEC west) if they win this by a bunch.

Todd said...

It'd be a huge win for Miss St. if they could beat Kentucky. Up 61-52 with 7:45.

BC looks trigger happy on offense, but they're only down 1, so hopefully we'll start pounding it inside more, and settling for less jumpers.

CMFost said...

Watching the BC-Miami Game I love that sign they just showed on ESPN.


WHERE's DUKE?

DIsneyland

Dan Mega said...

FuturelegendVince- that guy also writes for Baseball Prospectus. That automatically means he doesn't know crap about sports outside his useless stats and spreadsheets.

CMFost said...

BC is shooting to many threes, and they need to get Dudley going or this will be a long afternoon.

GuyInTheCorner said...

cmfost-

I said assume xavier, memphis, akron, nevada, and byu/unlv win.

Those are pretty likely. There could be an upset but it's not very likely. The only real possibility is Akron might lose to Toledo. But that's it.

Xavier, Nevada, Memphis, BYU/UNLV have not much trouble ahead.

Todd said...

Miami just can't miss a shot. You're right though CMFost, BC is taking too many jump shots. Considering Duds hasn't gotten going yet though, I still like BC's chances. Give Miami credit though, they're playing with a lot of heart and passion right now.

GuyInTheCorner said...

Question ofr cmfost and todd-

Do you guys get the entire ACC tourney on TV up there? Here in ACC country I get every game although the blackouts on ESPN (like right now) are kind of annoying.

I know Boston isn't technically "ACC country" but there isn't another big collerge basketball team up there right?

What about the regular season? Do you watch the Jefferson Piloy / Raycom Sports broadcasts that we do down here?

Meanwhile, I told you guys that Maryland losing was bad for you. Miami beating you could really hurt. And they look as good as they did yesterday.

The best thing I can say about Miami is that they look smart. They don't shoot llw percentage shots. Play good D, don't make stupid fouls, and don't really turnover the ball much.

Todd said...

@Guy,

I agree, I'd have rather faced Maryland. And we get the Raycom broadcasts. We didn't get the Tech/Wake game last night, but we get almost everything else.

And yes, credit to Miami. They're playing smart, deliberate basketball. Considering BC does too, it says something that Miami is outplaying them right now. But BC's defense looks solid, Miami is just not missing (despite contested looks for the most part).

Smack said...

Dan said:

For those of you who mocked me for calling Tom Brady the new Shawn Kemp, who's laughing now? You cannot possibly deny Brady's ascension to Kemp Status now.

I'll still mock you after this alleged story. Brady needs at least four more to get into Kemp's class; Shawn has six (that we know about.)

I'll agree with you if Brady can still "spread it around" and create five more with a sharply declining career and 40 pounds of bloat, like Kemp did.

Todd said...

Not many BC fans will say it, but Ty Rice has been playing better than Dudley the past few games.

Dudley is scoreless right now against Miami. That's not good for BC.

Meanwhile Kentucky took the lead against Miss. St.

GuyInTheCorner said...

I'm really not sure about that tech for hanging in the rim. He did barely anything besides slap the backboard and that's no automatic tech.

GuyInTheCorner said...

WOW. GREAT SHOT AT THE BUZZER. That was freaking sweet.

Todd said...

Slapping the backboard pretty much always gets called. I agree it was iffy, but that does usually get called.

Miami is playing out of its mind though. That last 3 hurts.

Jason said...

MS State-Kentucky is a very good game. 0:11 left, UK up 75-73.

Todd said...

What a shot by Miss St. to tie it up, wow!

Purdue right now looks like they're a Tourney Team.

Jason said...

And now it's MS State-Kentucky in overtime.

And Purdue's playing themselves in vs. Iowa. They're up 43-30.

CMFost said...

I would hate to say this but BC better wake up in the Second Half or Come Sunday Night they will find themselves in the NIT.

Jason said...

Under no circumstances is BC NIT bound. They may be killing their seeding, but they're in no matter what happens here.

R. Crowe said...

More Stats fun:

1) Only one team out of 64/65 wins the tournament every year. That means statistics will always overwhelmingly point to the losers than the winners. (OK, 90% of the time they do)

2) UCLA has won 11 championships over the past 42 years, for an average of 1 championship every 3.8 years. It's been 12 years since our last one. I'd say we're overdue.

Todd said...

Unless we lost by 20 or more, I don't think we're out. You just compare our RPI to teams like Illinois/Stanford or other bubble teams, and there's no competition.

That being said, we're looking like a an easy one and done in the tourney. Erg...

Come on Jared, play like you're the ACC POY! 0 points in a half is absolutely unacceptable.

CMFost said...

Jason you might be right but 19-12 and losers big in what 4 of there last 5 would not look good. Everyone thinks they are a lock but if say they lost this game by 15-20 they might not be.

Todd said...

Excuse me, I'm going to go sit in a corner and cry now.

CMFost said...

22:01 for the ACC POY to get on the scoresheet, That is a pathetic effort.

Jason said...

While that's true...their RPI is really good and they have a winning record in the strongest conference in the country. I wouldnt be surprised with a 9 or 10 seed at this point but a lot of teams played like crap down the stretch this year.

Jason said...

Mississippi State won 84-82 in OT. Still not in, but their case is a lot stronger than it was.

Brian in Oxford said...

I see the ACC expanded the picture in their logo to squeeze BC in there.

Of course, having to listen to mike patrick and dick vitale has me seriously changing back to the purdue-iowa game.

CMFost said...

Anyone else think Ted Sarandis is having a heart attack doing the play by play on WEEI today? BC play is probably going to kill him.

CMFost said...

BC making a run. What a game by Rice???? Basically keeping BC in the game singlehandly.

Jason said...

Given how K-State has played thus far against Texas Tech, I'm starting to think another set of Wildcats are in the Dance (at the expense of Stanford).

GuyInTheCorner said...

Here's my question for those of us watching the Miami/BC game....

What percentage of Miami's points are:
From the FT line, on lay-ups, on dunks, on wide open 3s, or on the break.

Like 90?

Higher?

CMFost said...

I think it is the wide open 3's, they are 6-6 from the FT line so it is not from there.

CMFost said...

stress time, 3 point game a minute to go, let's go eagles

GuyInTheCorner said...

If I'm Miami here, I run one of their weird plays where they run the weave at the 3 then reverse it go halfway inside then dish to some1 driving and then crash the boards.

GuyInTheCorner said...

This is why you've gotta love the ACC.

CMFost said...

OK, BC you got the momentum going, let's run away with this one in OT. No more fooling around.

Jason said...

Is it just me or have there been a lot of OT games since yesterday? It's a sign of the parity this year, I tells ya!

Jason said...

I think it's safe to say Purdue will be among the field of 65 come Sunday. They beat Iowa 74-55.

jhawkjjm said...

Dammit, why can't Texas Tech just beat K state and put them out of their misery. Although it would be fun for KU to clobber K State (again) I'd rather just have them lose so I don't have to listen to those purple pussies.

I blame college football if K State gets in. (ok so that's a cheap plug for the blog I wrote earlier but hey...)

C'mon BC. (and that's not just because KU beat them by 20 this year)

CMFost said...

HUGE FT's by Rice needed to make both. What an absolute amazing game he is having.

CMFost said...

Wow all I have to say is if BC plays like that tomorrow they lose by 25+

Todd said...

Not sure BC deserved to win that. Huge effort by Tyrese Rice.

Feel bad for Miami, they played a great game. A few calls go their way, they win that one easily.

Todd said...

Now can we firmly all state that BC is IN? Thanks...

Now tomorrow watch as UNC beats us by 30...

Tyrese Rice was huge. Man he's a scorer. Dudley did some little things well that didn't show up on the scoreboard, but not a true Conf POY day stats wise for him.

Again, if there's a Miami fan here, you guys played a hell of a game and probably deserved to win that one.

CMFost said...

Everone have a great weekend watching the games and finding out who is playing who. Talk to you all on Monday it should be an interesting conversation about who got in and who got snubbed.

jhawkjjm said...

Bad news for Bubble teams. Xavier loses in the A-10. Okie St knocks off A&M. Things are getting interesting.

ryan from boston,ma said...

NC State just really gave Virgina big problems tonight.

BC never gave up today versus Miami. When I though with 8:00 minutes left down by 8...well,it's not over until it's over.

go BC!!!

jhawkjjm said...

More bad news...Neveda loses in their conference tourney.

Sean said...

and xavier lost too. wow, what a day.

there's a 90% chance I'm "sick" for the 1st two days of this year's tourney.