Thursday 01/11 A.M. Quickie:Bonds vs. Greenies, A. Peterson Going Pro

Barry Bonds tested positive for a form of greenies... six months ago. The NY Daily News broke the story, but you can expect it to get blowout coverage within sports media.

The interesting twist ("interesting" being relative) is that Bonds blames a teammate – though I'm not quite sure why Bonds would be taking a teammate's pills if he didn't know what was in them.

The more interesting twist is that the positive amphetamines test triggered six months of regular testing, which Bonds presumably passed without problem – which sort of undercuts the power of the story.

It's hard to get too worked up over MLB players taking amphetamines, considering that they were baseball's biggest, most widespread PED epidemic long before steroids ever made the scene.

Before they were banned last season, I guesstimated that 90 percent of players used some form of greenies over the last half-century. Notice how you rarely hear cootish old-timers ripping current players.

That's probably because the "Back in my day..." scolds are probably still too busy drinking 18 cups of coffee a day trying to recreate the daily high of their own amphetamine abuse.

Latest NFL Draft Declarations: And around the glory positions we go!

RB: Adrian Peterson! Poster guy for why college players should be allowed to declare for the NFL draft without age limitation. After his freshman year, he would have been a first-round pick. I still say he's the best RB on the board and a Top 10 pick.

QB: JaMarcus Russell! Rising buzz means he will likely battle Brady Quinn for position as first QB taken, though it'll be hard to overcome Quinn's "Notre Dame" mystique. Oh, wait: I mean "white" mystique. Nevertheless, Russell seems like a Top 10 lock.

WR: Dwayne Jarrett! You can keep Calvin Johnson, as amazing as he is. For my money, Jarrett was the best WR in college football – not just last year, but possibly of the last decade. Another guy who should be a Top 10 pick.

NFL Coaching Carousel: Coughlin returning to Giants. I don't think there's a piece of news that could depress Giants fans more. However, there is a bright side: One more year of getting his ass handed to him by power teams might convince Charlie Weis what the rest of us know: He'll never win the national title at Notre Dame, so he might as well go to the Giants. (More: Is Mike Martz the hottest coaching candidate? The Dolphins interviewed him, and the Raiders reportedly like him too.)

CBB Parity Watch: Georgia Tech stuns Duke. OK, this isn't about parity as much as it is about reaffirming that this Duke team was completely overrated to start the season. Now 0-2 in the ACC, Duke has been exposed. (But how about my boy, Jon Scheyer? Keep gunning, kid! This is the best-case scenario for me: Scheyer gets his, but Duke gets beat.)

But here's a good "Parity Watch" entry: Marquette, which had lost 2 straight, beat UConn, snapping the Huskies' 31-game home winning streak. Meanwhile, Butler lost to Illinois-Chicago, which should have you re-thinking the idea that Butler is this year's mid-major most likely to pull a George Mason.

NBA: The frenzy over Chris Webber is amusing. For $20 million? Keep him the hell away from my team. For, say, free? Come on over! The Knicks want him. KG wants to play with him (who doesn't KG want to play with?) And it looks like his hometown Pistons are going to get him.

(Meanwhile, the Sixers lost without him, which isn't much of a difference from the results they got with him. They lost to the Knicks, which is amusing for other reasons. The Sixers are doing it right: Hurtling closer and closer to the league's bottom -- and a lock for either of the draft prizes, Greg Oden or Kevin Durant.)

NBA Line of the Night: Dwight Howard's 30 points and 25 rebounds in a Magic win over the Warriors. Yeesh: Let's fit this monster for an All-Star jersey.

Tiki to NBC? NFL Hall-of-fame-whore Tiki Barber is rumored to be headed to NBC, where he'll undoubtedly be used to spice up "Football Night in America," but also undoubtedly be pushing for airtime on "Today." (I predict they stick him on the upcoming extra 4th hour of "Today.")

Tags to Pro Football HOF? He's one of the first-year finalists with a shot. Actually, I want to know why players have to wait six years to be eligible but former Commissioners don't even have to wait six months? Tags is a lock, of course. First-year finalist Bruce Matthews is, too. Those are the only two I think will make it, along with the "senior committee" nominee you've never heard of.

StubHub has ultimate sale: Online ticket re-seller StubHub, which built its business on the back of sports ticket sales (uh, don't call it "scalping"), was sold to eBay for $310 million. In 2007, I really do have to make me one of those ol' online start-ups.

I want to thank everyone who jumped on the Webbies bandwagon and nominated this blog for "Best Sports Blog." I really appreciated it, and – as I said before – what makes the blog particularly fun to do (and, hopefully, to read) is the participation by you.

Finally, here comes an interesting test: I'm headed down to Orlando today for my brother's wedding this weekend. I'm not bringing my laptop but I am bringing my brand spanking new Blackberry, and I'm going to attempt to update the blog using it.

What it means practically is that I'll probably have shorter posts, tomorrow and/or later today, but hopefully a few more posts during the day. I don't know how to actually EDIT the posts via Blackberry, only how to post them to the site. So any glaring errors – oh and there usually are quite a few – will be up there for all to see. Apologies in advance, but I'm looking forward to the experiment.

-- D.S.

Wednesday 01/10 A.M. Quickie:P. Carroll, Tony K Staying; Big Mac a Dud

Top storylines tracking today:

*HOF vote: The Reaction
*Carroll staying at USC
*Wisconsin: No. 1 in CBB?
*TK to stay at MNF
*Final Bloggies nag/beg

Pete Carroll staying at USC: Should it scare Trojans fans that Carroll even considered an NFL job? Or should it make them feel better, because the Fins job is just about as good as he would be offered by an NFL owner, and he still turned it down?

Either way, it's already time for me to modify my 2007 Top 5 to include USC: Michigan, West Virginia, Florida, Texas, USC – in no particular order.

There's a lot of hype to put LSU in that Top 5, but I think losing JaMarcus Russell will sting. And even though LSU gets the Gators in Baton Rouge next year (a game I think the Tigers will win), I think Florida wins a rematch/revenge game in the SEC title game on a neutral field.

(By the way, for all the talk about the BCS title game being an uncompetitive blowout – though the opposite direction from what all the experts predicted – it was still the 3rd most-watched BCS title game ever.)

HOF, The Day After: Has the BBWAA exiled its moron members who didn't vote for Ripken or Gwynn yet?

Meanwhile, if 75 percent of voters are eventually going to vote for McGwire but are simply exacting some vigilante justice now, those guys should lose their vote, too.

Who would've figured that the BBWAA and its membership were at least as corrupted as the Steroid Era players themselves?

More on McGwire below.*

TK to stay at MNF. It's silly season among NFL and college coaches: Interviews, hirings, rumors, spin. Here's a piece of news that isn't necessarily a shocker, but is sort of an upset:

Tony Kornheiser is staying on for another season at "Monday Night Football." After a very spotty rookie season that never really lived up to its potential that had me so giddy the day before he officially started, there were rumors that he would quit (or be yoinked) or that they would replace him with fame-whore Tiki Barber. Instead, he'll get a second year to build on Year 1. That, or the money and fame was so damn awesome that he couldn't possibly walk away from it, no matter how pained he might have appeared on-screen to be doing the job.

College Hoops: Game of the Night: Wisconsin beats Ohio State. Wow, Wisconsin might just be the No. 1 team in the country, which makes my preseason pick of Wisco to the Final Four seem smart, but it's a crowded bandwagon now. How brutal is Ohio State's schedule? Tough losses at UNC and at Wisco, sandwiching that blowout in Gainesville. But no harm: It's all terrific practice for March.

Meanwhile, how is Clemson still undefeated? Do they have "first-round tournament bust" written all over them or what? SEC: Alabama beats LSU. Florida beats Arkansas. Wow, that conference is going to beat itself up at the top, round-robin style.

Did you hear about the ex-high school hoops coach who faces 39 various counts, not the least of which is hitting his players in the groin?

Early contender for Biggest Non-story of the (New) Year: Belichick's playoff post-game push.

Louisville hires Kragthorpe: Other college teams should take note of how quickly Louisville pivoted from losing their coach to the NFL to hiring a replacement: Steve Kragthorpe from Tulsa. Ah, we're back to the good old days where mid-major programs create coaches who can leap into a Top 25 program.

Speaking of L'ville, is RB Michael Bush, who is jumping to the NFL, a bigger, bulkier, more talented version of Willis McGahee? The biggest difference: McGahee had four months to go from injury to draft day, one of the great rehabs in modern sports memory. Bush has an extra three months. I'd still draft him in the first round, ranking him just behind Adrian Peterson.

When Jason Kidd filed for divorce from his wife, he accused her of "extreme cruelty." Yikes. That can't simply be that she beat his ass in their nightly game of Boggle.

The dream is over for Rory Fitzpatrick: The NHL's story of the year – the write-in All-Star candidacy that earned a staggering 550K votes – fell 23,000 votes short. But it set a new standard for grassroots phenomena in the NHL and across fan-balloting in sports.

2016 Olympics: Chicago and LA are the finalists for the US bid for the 2016 Olympics. I'm on record a while ago as saying that Chicago would be the best choice for the USOC's support.

Fan-Generated Super Bowl Ad Selected: Congrats to Maine marketing guy Gino Bona, who won the NFL's contest to let a fan design a Super Bowl ad. His ad came in second in the fan vote, but the NFL yoinked it over the most popular fan choice, which kind of sucks for that ad, if you think about it. But congrats to Bona and congrats to the NFL on a clever, zeitgeisty campaign. Here's a link to the contest. www.NFL.com/superad

And here's the most important point -- a prediction, actually: Bona's ad concept will be better than 85 percent of the ads created by the so-called "professionals" who brands are paying a mint to create these hellishly expensive and notoriously hit-or-miss spots.

(This is different than the CBS-sponsored YouTube promotion where someone will have their "15 seconds of fame" when their 15-second YouTube clip is played during the Super Bowl, also a great idea by increasingly user-generated-content-friendly CBS.)

* - Last note about McGwire: "I'm not here to talk about the past" essentially ruined his chances of making the Hall of Fame, this year, if not ever. All he had to do was be a little more candid in front of Congress, and he would have been forgiven. That was arguably the dumbest choice of talking-point in sports history. As I wrote at the time, McGwire should have 'fessed up to it, then immediately directed his mouth (and money) to "PED-ucation" among young athletes. Two-plus years later, he would have been an HOF lock, because everyone loves a good rehab story. The crazy part? He could still apply that plan – today – and he'd be in by next year's vote.

Finally, if you haven't done it yet (or even if you have) and feel so inclined to humor me and the rest of this blog's readers, please head over to the 2007 Bloggie Awards nomination page and nominate this blog for "Best Sports Blog." Here's the link, with all the info. It takes just a few seconds. Nominations close today. Let's make this blog the Rory Fitzpatrick of the Bloggie Awards. Final push!

-- D.S.

2007 Bloggies Nomination: Last Call!(Plus: Recapping a Day of Unread Posts!)

What you may have missed below while Blogger was down for most of the day:

(1) Hall of Fame Voting Scandal!
(2) Why a CFB "Plus-One" Won't Work!
(3) My Final CFB Top 10 Ranking!
(4) Quickie: How 'Bout Them Gators?

Just one day left to nominate this blog for "Best Sports Blog" in the 2007 Bloggie Awards. For the last week, it's been the grassroots movement of the year. If you haven't yet (or, hell, even if you have), if you'd follow this link to the nomination page (where they have all the instructions), I'd really appreciate it. And, after all, I see this just as much as an award for the readers and those of you who comment as anything else. Huge thanks -- only one more day of me pimping this thing! (Meanwhile, what a terrible day for Blogger to go down for most of the day: This is my most prolific posting day since the first days of the blog!) -- D.S.

Baseball Hall of Fame Voting:Ripken, Gwynn In; McGwire Way Out

Two questions on the HOF results: (1) Who were the 1.5 percent of voters (aka "Asshats") who didn't think Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn were Hall-worthy? Can we please take away their privilege of being a Hall of Fame voter? The system needs an audit. (2) Who had "23.5" in the office pool for McGwire's percentage of ballots he would be named on? (Seems about right to me: Half the voters are never going to vote for him, and the other half were going to split evenly between those who would vote for him this year and those who will vote for him next year.) -- D.S.

Now, About That BCS Playoff System(Why a 4-Team, "Plus-One" Won't Work)

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See earlier posts:
My Final CFB Top 10! (Scandal!)
Tuesday Quickie: Gator Mania!

CFB Playoff in the future? The SEC commish and BCS coordinator Mike Slive says he's open to a four-team playoff that results in a "Plus-One" title game. However, this year serves as a cautionary tale:

Which four teams would you have picked to be in this so-called playoff that determines the champion "on the field?" Ohio State, obviously. Florida. Then who: Michigan? LSU?

See, in hindsight, looking at Michigan's final AP ranking (8th), it is ludicrous to think that they would have deserved to be in a four-team playoff. Not just deserved to be, but a LOCK -- the 3-seed! After the bowls, the more accurate answer for those other two teams are LSU and USC, but even then: What about Boise, who finished 5th, a mere handful of poll points behind USC and with a vastly better record against the only common opponent Boise and USC shared?

Here's my point: A four-team playoff doesn't solve the problems. Not when the No. 5 team is as worthy as any of the two ahead of them in any given 4-team field. Not when picking those 4 teams is so loaded with problems. Let's sum it up with the label "The Michigan Problem."

Michigan's seemingly "obvious" place in a 4-team playoff this year (on Dec. 3) would have screwed either LSU or USC -- the omission of either of which would have been a travesty (not to mention the omission of Boise State).

Simply put: A 4-team playoff* just doesn't solve the basic structural problem with the system. And, as everyone barks for it in the aftermath of the BCS title game, they can't even explain how it would have worked THIS season. At least fairly. Or accurately.

-- D.S.

(* - Even if we had an 8-team playoff this year, it would have been problematic. Start with the assumption that any 8-team field must include the 6 BCS conference champs as automatic bids. You get two "at-large" picks, so tell me which team you're going to screw over: Michigan, LSU or Boise State?

Again, we have a Michigan Problem: On Jan. 9, everyone can agree that Michigan has no business being picked ahead of either LSU or Boise. But on Dec. 3, no one would have listened to you about that.

And, consequently, one very viable team -- a team that turns out to be better than Michigan -- would be left out, while Michigan would have received what we all now know would have been a patently ridiculous 3-seed among the 8 tems.)

My Final Top 10 CFB Rankings(Plus Predicting Next Season's Champ)

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Here is my final CFB Top 10
(Be sure to read through 'til the end for my wacked predictions for next season's national champ!)

1. Florida
2. LSU
3. Ohio State
4. Boise State
5. USC
6. Louisville
7. Auburn
8. Wisconsin
9. West Virginia
10. Michigan

My final Top 10 reflects what we all saw last night: Speed kills. Specifically, SEC speed kills. And I honestly believe that LSU's speed, particularly on defense, would beat Ohio State in the same way that Florida's did (without the sophistication on offense).

I really WANTED to put Boise State No. 2 or certainly No. 3, but I couldn't bring myself to put them over BOTH Ohio State and LSU (even though I'm not sure OSU could beat Boise or USC; I'm guilty of my own "inertia pick" that I throttled voters for all year long). However, I had no problem putting Boise over USC; just reference their respective performances against common opponent Oregon State.

Louisville and Auburn get that "speed bump." I hesitate to put Wisconsin so high, but you have to reward them for beating one of the Top 3 teams in the SEC. As for Michigan: I'm punishing them for the way they lost to USC, but also to reflect that West Virginia plays like an SEC team -- fast. And, as USC proved in the Rose Bowl, LSU proved in the Sugar and Florida proved last night, that would beat Michigan.

Looking ahead to next year? Hmm: Not obvious. USC loses Jarrett (and could lose Carroll and/or Sarkisian). Florida loses most of its defense. Ohio State loses most of its offense. LSU loses JaMarcus Russell. Louisville loses its coach (and probably its QB). Arkansas returns McFadden, but I can't see them getting through the SEC unscathed. Notre Dame? Don't make me laugh. Michigan might run the table, but there's no reason to believe they wouldn't have the same problems as Ohio State did last night against a team with speed in the title game. OK, I'm ready to call it: Next year's national title game result: Unbeaten No. 2 Texas over unbeaten No. 1 Michigan. Unbeaten No. 3 West Virginia over 1-loss No. 4 Florida. SPLIT National Champs: Texas (Coaches); West Virginia (AP).

-- D.S.

Florida Gators: National Champs(Bowl Championship Shellacking)

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I'm still filtering last night's result. (And sincerely trying to avoid the type of gloating or other insufferable opinions that so many of you think I will display and/or have earned. Come on! This morning, the biggest post-game storylines seem to be:

*Florida's near-perfect execution and game plan. What was more impressive: The Gators racking up 41 points on offense or the D holding Ohio State's offense to 70 yards?

*Troy Smith's abysmal game that completely re-wrote his legacy as a big-game QB. (And Chris Leak's amazing game, completely re-writing his legacy as an uninspired fizzler.)

*Jim Tressel's early decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 from inside his own 30, which was less about the resulting points than about how Meyer had thrown the normally unflappable Tressel completely off his game.

*That Harris Poll voter Jim Walden who picked the Gators as No. 1 back when the BCS title-game matchup was set.

*Ohio State's 51-day layoff (which is the flimsiest excuse, but is yet one more reason the Big Ten should schedule the Ohio State-Michigan game for the same day as the other conferences play their title games.)

*What about Boise State? Ranked No. 5 in the final AP poll (ridiculously behind USC, despite the "Oregon State Factor") and No. 6 in the final coaches poll (ridiculously behind Wisconsin). Ranked No. 2 by Urban Meyer. Since all rankings behind No. 1 are cost-free, it's easy to WANT to rank Boise at No. 2. Where did I rank them? See below for my final Top 10.

*And what about that CFB playoff? The BCS honcho came out in favor of a four-team playoff with a "Plus-One" title game, but as I point out below, this season exposed that plan with its own problems.

I'm going to post separate items for my final CFB Top 10 and thoughts on a playoff, because I want your Comments on them, specifically. Coming shortly.

More of today's top storylines:

Baseball Hall of Fame Vote: Ripken and Gwynn are locks. The biggest question is how close to unanimous it will be. We know for sure that it WON'T be unanimous: There's a dipshit voter named Paul Ledewski out of Illinois who refused to vote for either, simply because they played during the purported Steroid Era; he should lose his voting privileges. This is the sportswriter equivalent of a baseball player throwing a game in the World Series.

The other huge HOF storyline will be how far away Mark McGwire is from selection. Wouldn't it be intriguing if he didn't make the minimum number of ballots to stay on the ballot next year?

The biggest winners in the 2007 NFL Draft will be the Tampa Bay Bucs, picking third but likely to end up with the draft's top talent – WR Calvin Johnson – because there's no way that the Raiders and Lions (picking 1st and 2nd) take him. (We've seen this before: Both Braylon Edwards and Larry Fitzgerald were the top talents in their drafts, but passed over because they were WRs.)

NFL Coaching Search(es): Wait: What if Pete Carroll left for the Dolphins AND Carroll's top assistant Steve Sarkisian left for the Raiders? And what is happening in Pittsburgh? Meanwhile, consider me bullish on Bobby Petrino's chances in Atlanta. He's too innovative not to unleash Michael Vick. (Or will he install his spread for... Matt Schaub?) Speaking of Petrino, his ex-team Louisville is reportedly targeting Tulsa's Kragthorpe, which would be a great hire (and yet another coach who professed to be happy where he is but ends up bolting.)

-- D.S.

Florida: 2006 CFB National Champs!Ohio State Completely Dominated

It's just minutes after the end of the game -- the domination, really -- and I'm still trying to process. Here are the biggest storylines for me:

(1) Domination by Florida's D, allowing 74 yards total and completely shutting down the Heisman Trophy winner.

(2) Troy Smith's atrocious game (4/14, 34 yds, 1 INT, 0 TD), mirrored by Chris Leak's ultimate redemption. For the last four years, I've been up and down on Chris -- the last year, mostly down. But his legacy is secure.

(3) Hoops-Football titles back-to-back, making Florida the first team to hold both titles simultaneously in NCAA history.

(4) Urban Meyer winning a national title in Year 2, which can be attributed to a couple of things: His emphasis on speed, his instant-impact recruiting and his meticulous management of his program.

(5) Florida's offensive play-calling and balance -- the former which had been a problem all season long, the latter which had been the core of Urban Meyer's system.

I mean, it was such an ass-kicking that I think most fans -- whether you're a Florida fan, an Ohio State fan or simply a college football fan -- were left as shocked as possible. It was possible, though preciously rare, to predict that Florida would win (cough, cough), but impossible to predict that Florida would win in such a dominating way.

(Hell, even Kirk Herbstreit is giving Florida credit, which is saying something. It's easy to forgive him in victory, particularly knowing how frustrated and upset he must be over the way OSU lost this game. I'm especially impressed the way he rejects OSU's 51-day layoff as a factor, when that seems to be something everyone wants to attribute the result to.)

Here's my question: Can you remember such a substantial and consensus underdog delivering such a thorough ass-kicking in a championship game? The two most notable underdogs -- Texas last year and Ohio State in 2003 vs. Miami -- both barely squeaked by with upset wins.

More must-read game coverage:
Deadspin: 701 Comments!
Every Day Should Be Saturday
AOL CFB Fanhouse

I head off to bed way too wired, but also stunned at the level of domination by Florida in this game over Ohio State. National champs. Wow. I'm thrilled to know that I had faith it would happen, but I could have never allowed myself to imagine it would happen this way. Maybe more cogent thoughts during the day Tuesday. -- D.S.

Florida-Ohio State Live-Comment

At this pace, I am not going to make it through this. Seriously. I open the Comments to you all. Good gracious. -- D.S.

Update after 1st Quarter: OK, that was the best quarter I have ever seen Florida play. It was, dare I say it, perfectly executed (particularly on offense, where through the season, the play-calling has been iffy, at best). Here's the flip side: There is NO way that Florida can sustain this pace, and Ohio State is STILL within a score. Again: Good gracious. -- D.S.

Update at Halftime: OK, so I was sort of wrong. Florida nearly matched their first quarter in the second. The offense continued to push the pedal down. The defense has been playing out of their mind. I wonder what Ohio State is thinking in the locker room: Shell-shock? Motivation? I simply remain shocked that Florida has hung 34 on Ohio State and limited OSU to less than 100 yards of offense. But there is so much time left. Almost too much time left. I repeat: Good gracious. -- D.S.

Update after 3rd Quarter: Well, a 0-0 quarter wasn't particularly entertaining, but it puts the Gators 15 minutes closer to a national title. And it reaffirms that the story of the game isn't the 34 that Florida hung on OSU in the 1st half, but the shut-down play of the Gators' D, which has effectively held Ohio State to one offensive TD. One quarter away. Cripes. I can barely stand it. Why does 20 points seem like... well, still not enough? -- D.S.

FINAL: Florida 41, Ohio State 14. YYYYYEEEEEESSSSS!!! What a complete ass-kicking. What an utterly dominating performance, which should eliminate any doubt about which team is No. 1, though I'm quite sure that Ohio State fans -- gracious losers that they are -- will find reasons to explain this one away. Explain away being held to under 100 yards of total offense. What an absolutely awesome game out of Florida. Whew!

BCS National Title Game:Yes, I'm Picking Florida to Win

Monday A.M. Quickie below (or linked here).

At the risk of delivering the most painful Quickie jinx of all time, I honestly think that Florida will beat Ohio State in the BCS title game tonight. That puts me in a very small minority that believes the Gators will actually beat the Buckeyes. I also happen to be a huge Florida fan, which both bolsters and erodes the value of my pick.

As a Florida fan, here are the Top 3 things that I worry will impede a win:

(1) UF's kicking game, obviously.
(2) Dumb, frequent penalties.
(3) Troy Smith late in a close game.

And here are the Top 3 things that should worry people who think Ohio State is going to win:

(1) Tim Tebow in short yardage.
(2) UF PR/KR Brandon James.
(3) Florida has nothing to lose.

I'm very surprised that pundits and fans (particularly Ohio State fans) have forgotten the lessons of Ohio State and Miami in the title game following the 2002 season. I have leaned on the comparison – however flimsy – since this FLA-OSU pairing was set.

But there's no getting around it: Miami was considered an unbeatable juggernaut; Ohio State was unbeaten, yes, but had won a seemingly endless and improbable series of nail-biters to get there.

I run through tonight's matchups, and I have a hard time figuring out why Ohio State is given such a decisive advantage (aside from the kicking game). For both teams, this is the best offense either has seen. Both teams' offenses have played against at least one team with as good or better defense (OSU: Michigan, UF: LSU). Player for player, Florida seems even.

Am I crazy to think that an "even" matchup favors the Gators? After all, everyone seems to think that Ohio State is going to blow the doors off this Florida team (or, at least, win by more than a touchdown). I'm wondering what will happen when Ohio State delivers its haymakers and the Gators not only stand pat, but hit back? How long does it take for an aura of invincibility to be eroded -- or shattered?

If there's one X-factor I think of more than others, it's this: Ohio State has played one meaningful game this season -- Michigan. (I discount the Texas game; it was too early in the season, Texas was playing with an inexperienced QB, and Texas turned out to be merely good, not great.) Even the Michigan game wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated. This is where Ohio State's average margin of victory comes back to haunt them: Where is Ohio State's grit?

Florida, on the other hand, has endured grit this season. Frankly, too much grit. Too many close calls. Too many "must-have" moments. Too many threats to obliterate its season. But the residual effect of all that grit is a hardened winner's mindset of "earn it" -- not entitlement or coronation, like I feel from Ohio State and its proponents.

Ryan Ferguson of OrangeandBlueHue.com has a great post about the game (caveat: From a Florida fan's perspective) on AOL's Fanhouse. Here's the link.

When that grit is combined with an underdog mentality, a coach who knows how to push those buttons and enough talent to offset Ohio State's talent, the formula is there for a Florida upset. I'm not going to predict a score, but I really believe that Florida will win. (Ugh: Curse!)

OK, here's your must-read of the day, related to the game tonight: SundayMorningQB's four-part breakdown. It's the best, most detailed you'll find. Worth your time.

Comments Question: We've had an unbelievably awesome season of Commenter analysis of college football, so let's end with a huge effort. How do you break down the game? What are the biggest storylines? The biggest X-factors? What will be the difference in the game, and – finally – how do you see it playing out?

-- D.S.

Monday 01/08 A.M. Quickie:NFL Playoffs, BCS Title Game, More

Tracking this morning:

*Chargers-Pats: De facto SBXLI?
*Eagles-Saints: Who to root against?
*Giants: What next? (Fire/Hire)
*Is Petrino the new Saban?
*BCS Title Game: Gameday ramp-up

Remember when the NFC title game used to be the de facto Super Bowl? Who else suspects that the same will apply to next week's Pats-Chargers winner?

If any team can derail the Chargers – even in San Diego – it's New England. Watch for Belichick to pull some of his classic Jedi Mind Trick stuff and use the Chargers' strength – LT – against them. What could be more motivating for the Genius than the challenge of stopping the player who just had arguably the greatest single individual season in NFL history?

As for the other AFC semifinal, I have zero faith in the Ravens. I also have zero faith in the Colts. However, I think this is the year that the teams who had zero expectations (like Indy and Philly) will ultimately succeed where they have previously failed with far stronger teams and greater expectations. It's just the ironic way this shit inevitably works out sometimes.

Eagles bounce out the Giants: Tony Romo could take a lesson from Koy Detmer about how to field (and hold onto) a snap on a game-winning playoff field goal. The Eagles' surreal season, mercifully, continues. The Giants surreal season, mercifully, ends.

I'm baffled by the Eagles-Saints matchup next week. Obviously, this season's Saints are the NFL Feel-Good Story of the Year (if not of all time). No one with a soul wants to see the ride end next week in New Orleans (improbable as this entire game set-up seemed four months ago). But these Eagles are riding some serious mojo. No one with a soul doesn't want to see the city implode when Jeff Garcia (and, notably, NOT Donovan McNabb) leads the team to a Super Bowl.

As for the other NFC semifinal, the Bears are going to cram some ugly down the throat of the defending NFC champs, clubbing the crown from the Seahawks' head (no matter how bad Rex Grossman might look while doing it).

Meanwhile, what about this past weekend's playoff losers?
What next for the Giants? Let's start with this: They have GOT to dump Tom Coughlin as coach, and their best move would be to make a strong play to lure Charlie Weis away from Notre Dame. (And, based on last week's bowl result and the prospects of NEVER truly being a national-title contender at ND, he should be amenable.)

And good riddance to retiring GM Ernie Accorsi, who was so blinded by his lifelong man-crush on Johnny Unitas that, in his final act, he ruined the franchise by developing a myopia for Eli Manning that has turned his team into a Super Bowl contender. (Too bad I'm talking about the team that originally drafted him – San Diego.)

What next for the Jets? I'd like to buy stock in Eric Mangini, if his rookie season resulted in a playoff run. The Jets are on the rise, the Pats are static (at best) and the rest of the division is a disaster. Not a bad position for Mangini to be in.

Falcons hire Bobby Petrino from Louisville: Wow, I didn't see this coming at all. Here's my intrigue. Based on the way Nick Saban was vilified last week, what kind of treatment will Petrino get?

After all, he's bolting from Louisville just one year after signing a 10-year, $25 million contract, which strikes me as at least as skeevy as what Saban did (whether Petrino ever made any claims or not).

I honestly wonder if there's a perception difference between bolting from the NFL to college (Saban) and bolting from college to the NFL (Petrino), with the Petrino spin being "Can you blame him? The NFL jobs are SO much rarer than the college jobs" rather than "He made a prominent commitment for 10 years but only stuck it out for one, the rat bastard."

Anyway, if the Falcons wanted an innovative offensive mind to re-invent Michael Vick's career, they found it. Petrino is the top offensive mind in college football (and, perhaps, all of football). I presume that during the interview, he blew owner Blank and GM McKay away with the ways he'd innovatively use Vick.

(As for Louisville's future? In hindsight, this year's BCS appearance and Big East title might look like the high-water mark for a program that, as recently as a week ago, figured it was on the way to a permanent spot among college football's elite. What a reversal. And compare Petrino bolting to Louisville's two main Big East Rivals:

Rich Rodriguez spurned Alabama to stay at West Virginia (for now), and Greg Schiano turned down Miami to stay at Rutgers. Both of those programs seem to be where Louisville was a year ago: Seemingly on the rise with a firm grasp on their sizzling hot head coaches. See how quickly things can change?

College Hoops: Who's No. 1? Who cares? UNC beat FSU last night, which should lift them directly up from No. 2 to the No. 1 spot. I'm still not convinced that UNC is better than Florida, given the evidence of their head-to-head games versus Ohio State: UNC barely survived (at home, with the Buckeyes playing without Greg Oden), and the Gators won by 26 (at home, with the Buckeyes playing with Oden). Doesn't anyone else think that UNC is a little young to be No. 1? But in this wacky season of more parity (certainly earlier) than I can ever remember, No. 1 doesn't mean much. (Latest Parity Watch: Syracuse beats Marquette.)

Congrats to Cal Tech, which snapped an 11-year, 207-game losing streak in Division 3 hoops by absolutely destroying Bard (NY) College, 81-52. Where the hell did THAT rout come from, and how bad must Bard be?

MLB Hot Stove: Randy Johnson agrees to 2Y/$26M deal with the D'backs. Let's get to the trade already, so we can start the feverish speculation of when the Yankees will sign Roger Clemens.

From today's USA Today Sports Media column: ESPNU is going to use my former ESPN.com colleague Bill Simmons as a guest-commentator on two college hoops games in the next two weeks. Very interesting!

I'm curious about the depth of his role in the broadcast. And is this a signal that BSG will become the Tony Kornheiser of ESPNU college hoops broadcasts?

Maybe they will add him to the College GameDay mix (though I can't imagine that Bilas, Digger or Rece would appreciate that Bill would be a bigger on-campus star than any of them)?

And will they ever let Bill crash an NBA telecast on ESPN, where he would REALLY add some value?

BCS Title Game Preview: Game Day! Full post coming around midday, where we can have it out over our pre-game analysis for the rest of the day. Here's a great recap of the improbability of Florida's place in this title game from the NYT's Pete Thamel (for my money, the best college football newspaper writer in the country)

Consider the way the Gators defy conventional wisdom about what makes a CFB champ contender: (1) No reliable true RB, (2) atrocious kicking game, (3) second-to-last in yards penalized, (4) top NFL prospect kicked off the team mid-season.

-- D.S.

Sunday 01/07 A.M. Quickie:Tony Romo: From Hero to Goat

Update: Feel free to add your live-comments off the NFL Wild Card games today in the Comments section. Meanwhile...

Romo's Blunder Ends Cowboys Season in Playoff Shocker: So the biggest question, of course, coming out of the Cowboys' shocking playoff loss in Seatte is...

Will Carrie Underwood still want to be with Tony Romo now that he's one of the biggest NFL playoff chumps/chokers of the decade?

It seems fitting – even poetic (and certainly ironic) – that the Pro Bowl QB whose meteoric rise from backup to rockstar(ter) was one of the biggest stories of the season ended up botching what should have been Dallas' "automatica" win.

But now, Romo isn't defined by his underdog story, by his super season or by his much-hyped romances. He's "be-hold-en" to chokery.

Colts beat Chiefs: Wow, Peyton Manning kind of sucks, doesn't he? If he throws three picks vs. the Ravens, the Colts won't win.

(But why do I get the feeling that this is precisely the kind of Colts team, with few expectations, that could actually win the AFC title?)

NFL Today: Giants-Eagles, Jets-Pats. Living in NYC, there's no way I can escape it today, can I? (Of the four teams, I'm rooting for the Eagles. How amazing would it be if Philly somehow rallied its way to the NFC title behind Jeff Garcia?)

College Hoops Parity Watch: Pac-10 Mania! Oregon beats No. 1 UCLA. Washington State tops No. 7 Arizona. (I don't get it: Is the Pac-1o this amazing or is it simply this overrated?)

And by the way, does anyone have the YouTube clip for Deron Washington's nuts-to-chin dunk on Duke's utterly unlikeable Greg Paulus, during VA Tech's upset win over Duke yesterday? I think I'm too early to find it. AHH! Here it is. An absolute must-see.

(I predict it's going to be the most YouTubed college hoops moment of the week, thanks to the magical equation of: "Nuts-over-Chin" leap + Duke + Duke losing + Duke's most hated player = Video Gold.)

BCS Title-Game Ramp-Up: God, this wait is interminable. And I don't just think that's because I'm a fan of one of the two teams. So far, the biggest story of the CFB national-title game is that they've completely effed up the rhythm of the season by setting this game off so far from the rest of the major bowl schedule.

With all that said, are the Gators still expected to get crushed by mighty Ohio State? Fine, I'll take it. I love it that way. I'm trying to figure out just precisely where – aside from the kicking game – OSU has such a substantial advantage. QB? RB? WR? OL? DL? LB? DBs?

I'm just not seeing it, and I'm just not sure why everyone is underrating Florida. (And you know I'm the first one to bring up that Florida has, at times this season, looked mediocre. But with their best game of the season – the SEC title game – in most recent memory (and with a month to get healthy and prepare), I still like their chances.

Fresh off his superb, eclipse-Quinn performance in the Sugar Bowl, LSU QB JaMarcus Russell is reportedly turning pro early. I think he's in the mix to be the first QB taken (ahead of Quinn and Brohm, if he jumps), a lock first-rounder and potentially a Top 5 pick.

NBA: Frankly, all I've been consuming this weekend, NBA-wise, is the post-party info from Gilbert Arenas' birthday bash. Start here and use it to work your way backward.

(Gilbert is my favorite NBA player -- and I'm no bandwagoneer -- but I have to wonder when the backlash will start. No single player can stay this universally popular for long in this day and age, right? It's going to be interesting to watch the process, because he is obviously the consensus favorite choice of sports bloggers, whose preferences tend to trickle down to mainstream media, which influences the fans.)

Condolences to family, friends and fans of USC kicker Mario Danelo, found dead at the bottom of a cliff in what appears to be a tragic accident.

-- D.S.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview and Picks

Friday A.M. Quickie below.

Key Question: Generally, do any of these teams have a chance of "pulling a Pittsburgh" and going from Wild Card Weekend all the way to a Super Bowl win? (My take: The Pats are always in that conversation until you see their losing score with your own eyes, and the Eagles going all the way would be so hilarious and disruptive -- because of the Garcia-McNabb factor -- that I could easily imagine Philly finally winning the Super Bowl... when their fans least expect it.)

More questions:

Chiefs at Colts: Will the Colts fold this week or next? Can the Chiefs continue their unlikely, playing-with-house-money run? PICK: COLTS.

Cowboys at Seahawks: Which team has even LESS momentum than the other? Do the Cowboys fold? Do the defending NFC champs get bounced? PICK: SEAHAWKS.

Jets at Pats: Can protege beat mentor? Can we please stop hearing about the protege-mentor relationship? PICK: PATS

Giants at Eagles: Does any team deserve to win this game less than the Giants? Does any team deserve to win this game more than the Eagles? PICK: EAGLES

What do you think: Key questions? X-factors? Storylines to watch? I'm much more interested in your analysis than mine. -- D.S.

Friday 01/05 A.M. Quickie:Playoffs, Coaching Moves, MVPs and More!

NFL Wild Card Weekend: I'm going to do a stand-alone post so we can talk specifically about the four Wild Card games, but it's nice to get back to the NFL Playoffs, because it felt like the last few weeks of the regular season dragged a little bit. But it's here. Settle in.

NFL Coaching Mania!
The Good Tale: Cowher resigns from Steelers. He was defined by his longevity first, then his Super Bowl title last season that vaulted him from merely "stable" to "champ."

Cowher's career trajectory is easy to project: A year off, working on TV, making bank and enhancing his mystique. Then, before the 2008 season, he'll get a huge offer from Dan Snyder to replace the retiring Joe Gibbs.

(Question: Why does Cowher's exodus from Pittsburgh get spun as "retirement" and not the more accurate "resignation?" Does anyone actually think he's really retiring from coaching for good? Compare that to Art Shell below -- "resigning" or Nick Saban below -- "quitting." Both could have generously been described as "retiring" from NFL coaching. Of course, the media wasn't in the mood to be generous with either, but apparently, Cowher gets that treatment.)

And what about the Steelers? This is coaching upheaval they haven't experienced in two decades. Team Rooney seems stodgy and cootish enough to simply elevate longtime assistant Ken Wisenhunt (who will apply not-so-subtle pressure by expressing interest in a few of the other coaching jobs, including the newly open Dolphins job).

The Bad Tale: Shell resigns from Raiders. You have to figure his coaching career is over. More pressing for Oakland fans: Who the hell would take this job? Expect to hear the same names: Rivera, Chow, Sherman, Singletary.

And then there's the Horrifying Tale, at least if you listen to the media's ongoing campaign to destroy Nick Saban. Ooh: Haven't you heard? He's EVIL! He's a LIAR! He's a QUITTER! Dan LeBatard said so! Don Shula said so! As I said yesterday: I just can't dredge up the outrage on this one. You'd think these esteemed critics had never dealt with coaches before. I'd always classify him more accurately as a college coach who had skills to coach in the NFL, rather than an NFL coach who had the skills to coaching in college. It's not like he left for another NFL job.

LaDainian Tomlinson is NFL MVP: This was a no-brainer. The only question is whether it will go down as the greatest season of all time. He'll need a Super Bowl title – with a gaudy performance – to seal it.

Jason Taylor is NFL Defensive P.O.Y.: Everyone knows that Shawne Merriman is the best defensive player in the NFL. The only reason he didn't win is that stodgy and cootish AP voters discounted his play because of the pesky 4-game suspension for steroids.

(These are undoubtedly some of the same fools who regularly picked someone other than Michael Jordan as NBA MVP. And, yes, that's two references to "stodgy and cootish.")

BCS Title Game: Have you (a) admired, (b) appreciated or (c) regretted my restraint in not maniacally analyzing the upcoming BCS Title Game? I'm sort of freaking out about it, because I'm convinced you're going to see the upset of the year, but I don't actually want to say that out loud (or write it down).

I'm going to create a separate post so we can break the game down. But aside from that, if anything, the wait between Jan. 1's bowl mania and this Jan. 8 title game seems WAAAAAAY too long – even endless. And not because I'm a fan of one of the teams, but because it just doesn't fit the rhythm of the CFB season.

Meanwhile, where do you stand in our College Bowl Mania pick 'em group? (I'm tied for 93rd. Why didn't I put all my "confidence" points on LSU whupping ND?! D'oh!)

NBA: Mavs win 12th straight. But I'm far more concerned about Gilbert Arenas' 25th birthday party, happening tomorrow night. NBA social event of the season! (Well, aside from the parties at the Vegas ASG.)

College Hoops Parity Watch: The non-conference season's parity trend should be magnified during conference season. Examples: Providence beat No. 15 Marquette. And USC racked up another quality win, giving No. 16 Oregon its first loss of the season.

MLB Hot Stove: Randy Johnson to Arizona is a done deal, which should make Roger Clemens to the Yankees a done-deal, too. Meanwhile, the Yankees signed Doug Mientkiewicz, which begs the question of which player will get booed most when the Yankees visit Boston: A-Rod? Doug M? Clemens? My money's on Dougie. Meanwhile, Jake Peavy joins the list of Athletes Gone Wrong.

LeBron needs a theme song: At least, for his Sprite TV commercials. But I think it's much more fun to hear your suggestions of what real-life songs might best define LeBron. (Extra points for cleverness and/or Top 40 references. Now, open up that iTunes Top 100 songs list.)

The Bloggie Awards, Cont'd. Only a few days left. Have you joined the grassroots campaign of the year to nominate this blog for "Best Sports Blog?" (You have? Great! Nominate early and often.) Here's the link to the Bloggie Awards page, and here's a link to the original post about it.

-- D.S.

Thursday 01/04 A.M. Quickie:Notre Dame Even Worse Than You Thought

Notre Dame blown out by LSU in Sugar Bowl: Here's what was confirmed last night:

(1) Notre Dame was the most overrated team in the country this season.

(And after last night, LSU might have made a case as the No. 3 team in the country, a hell of a debate between LSU, USC and Boise.*)

(2) Brady Quinn was the most overrated QB in the country this season.

(And after last night, LSU QB JaMarcus Russell might have leap-frogged Quinn on everyone's draft board. Hell, Russell might have played himself into the Raiders No. 1 draft spot. Or maybe the Lions at No. 2.)

(3) Charlie Weis has a better chance of winning an NFL title coaching the Giants than he does winning a BCS title coaching the Irish.

(And after last night, Weis might re-think his opposition to an NFL return. BTW, check out this pre-game post about Weis' overratedness.)

* - As I said on Tuesday: You simply can't rank USC ahead of Boise, because of the "Oregon State Factor." My head says to rank LSU ahead of Boise, but I can't stop thinking those rascally Broncos would find a way to beat LSU, too. The way I see it: (3) Boise St. (4) LSU (5) USC. That's not a dis of USC. LSU is that good.

More on today's biggest storylines:

Saban to Bama: See yesterday's post. I repeat: It's harder to consistently be BCS-eligible in the SEC (Conf. champ or BCS at-large a la LSU) than it is to consistently make the playoffs in the NFL.

Simply put: The SEC offers, at most, two BCS chances out of 12. The AFC offers 6 playoff chances out of 16, including a possible 3 chances out of 4 from a single division. Given those factors, the SEC's top-heaviness is tougher to overcome than the NFL's parity crunch.

Meanwhile, I just can't get behind all the outrage -- sincere or knee-jerk columnist b.s. -- about Saban bolting or about him saying one thing and doing another. That's the nature of the coaching game, and – as fans – at one time or another we've all benefited and we've all been stung. It's hard to get too worked up. I try to see it from the point of view of, say, a Dolphins fan: If Saban was willing to go, did you really want him anyway?

Bill Cowher to the Dolphins? Sounds like wishful thinking out of South Florida. But wouldn't that be an awesome 180 by Huizenga?

More NFL Coaching: I predict – without evidence, as usual – that the next Cards coach will be Ron Rivera.

Vince Young named Offensive Rookie of the Year: What an amazing story, particularly considering the pre-draft Wonderlic scandal. How wild that it turns out the Texans didn't screw up by passing on Reggie Bush, but by passing on hometown hero VY. Is he already the NFL's most popular player? Do you know anyone who DOESN'T like/respect/enjoy Young?

NBA: Gilbert Arenas is my hero. 32-footer at the buzzer to carry the Wiz over the Bucks, 108-105. More: Pat Riley takes leave of absence to deal with health issues. Yeah, but like Shaq, he'll be back just in time for the playoffs. The Heat aren't worth paying attention to until then.

College Hoops: Wait, is Clemson for real? They win their ACC opener at FSU to remain unbeaten on the season. (I might put more weight on that than others because I watched FSU beat Florida earlier this season, so I'm tainted by that.) Meanwhile, Air Force wins again. I said it in my "What's Hot, What's Not" List for 2007: AFA is this year's George Mason. (Damn! Quickie curse!)

BCS title game ramp-up: I'll obviously have a LOT more on this as we get closer to day-of-game, but let me point this out:

You can dislike Florida but still REALLY like that the Florida president, Bernie Machen, is being so vocal about pushing for a CFB playoff. Check this out.

Best story of the day: McGwire 70th HR ball juiced! A research company gave a CT scan to McGwire's 70th home run ball and found out... THE BALL WAS JUICED. Link here. ROFLMAO.

Why is Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson still merely considering a jump to the NFL? He's a contender for No. 1 overall pick and a lock for the Top 3. (Can you imagine if the Lions took him at No. 2? Actually, yes. Yes, I can. Vividly. In fact, the upset would be if they DIDN'T draft him.)

Add this to the Mike Tice Follies File: He would love to be the next college football coach at Minnesota. The only problem? He doesn't have a college degree. That explains a lot.

Sports announcer Jim Lampley doesn't just call boxing – he gets arrested for investigation of domestic violence. The "Boxing After Dark" jokes will be tasteless, but fair.

More Sugar: Great point made by newbie ESPN CFB analyst Robert Smith on why Notre Dame keeps getting hammered in bowl games. Let me re-state it in my own words: Their brand is writing checks their talent can't cash. BCS bowls pick Notre Dame because of the TV ratings and national interest, but – talent-wise – they are overmatched against other BCS teams. This Notre Dame team would have had trouble against second-tier bowl teams, let alone an unquestionable Top 5 team like LSU.

Last thing: Bloggie Awards, Cont'd. (Flex Your Power!) Did you see yesterday's post on the Bloggie Awards nominations? Did you catch my shameless self-promotion? More importantly, have you joined in for the grassroots campaign of the year... to get this blog nominated as "Best Sports Blog." As far as I'm concerned, you readers and commenters deserve it, too. Here's the link to the entry form and here's a link to yesterday's original post. Thanks for the support... and the tolerance for my asking about it!

-- D.S.

Living Well Is the Sweetest Revenge(Vote For Me For the 2007 Bloggies!)

OK, so this is sort of shameless, but from NCAA Tournament pools through career, ah, transitions through comments-comments-comments, I have always been able to count on you all for enthusiastic participation. And that's why I'm putting this out there:

The 2007 Bloggies. The 7th Annual Weblog Awards. And I'm looking for your support, which means your active participation, which means your nominations of this blog for "Best Sports Blog." (Yes, whether it deserves it or not.) So check out the link and let's see if we can put together a grassroots effort that will have some kind of impact. Consider it a challenge!

In all honesty, I see it as much as an award for all of you who participate -- from taking the time to read to taking even more time to comment and become part of the action yourself -- than for me. It's for all of us.

So if I pimp this nomination thing over the next 7 days with reminders, etc, don't get too annoyed. It's for a good cause, right? Click here to check out the process and get into it!

And, again, apologies for the shamelessness.

Saban to Bama

Wednesday A.M. Quickie below.

Say this: It's very hard to mock Alabama now as the job no one wants. They've just successfully landed one of the Top 5 CFB coaches in the country. (My Top 5? In no particular order: Pete Carroll, Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer, Greg Schiano, Saban.)

I have to believe that the ego boost of being the highest-paid coach in college football was more than a mere bonus, in addition to the total control of running a college program -- plus Bama's legacy among CFB's "elite" programs.

The SEC is now even MORE ridiculous than it was before. I said this earlier: It's harder to win (big) consistently in the SEC than it is to consistently make the playoffs in the NFL. One of the reasons I think Saban is so good is that he DID win in the SEC. But, ouch: It's r-o-u-g-h.

Then there's the aftermath: Apparently, he let Huizenga know via phone (classy!) and his assistants via conference call (classier!) And now the Dolphins join the Cards and Falcons on the coaching search. Here's a guess: The Fins won't hire a college coach.

What do you think of the move? Of the impact on Bama/CFB? Of the impact on the Dolphins? Of his decision making, overall? Look forward to hearing your comments. -- D.S.

Wednesday 01/03 A.M. Quickie:Boise, Bama, Brohm, Brady, AI, More

Boise State, The Morning After Morning After: Everyone keeps saying that Boise State's win proves the need for a playoff. I actually think it proves how hard a playoff field would be to create:

Let's say it was an 8-team field, with 6 of the slots filled by the BCS conference champs (no reasonable playoff scenario exists without that condition).

How could you justify picking Boise State over BOTH Michigan (ranked No. 3 in the final regular-season BCS poll) AND LSU (ranked No. 4)?

(Unless one of the two remaining "at-large" scenarios is an automatic bid to the top-rated non-BCS team -- not a bad idea, but poses a ton of problems when the top-rated non-BCS team isn't, say, unbeaten, like Boise State was. What happens when the top-ranked non-BCS team is a one-loss dud ranked in the high teens or low 20s?)

Plus, you're simply naive if you think that a glamorous (if overrated) Notre Dame team ranked in the vicinity of the highest-rated non-BCS team would be snubbed, even in favor of a Cinderella like Boise State. It's just not reasonable.

The other complicating factor is trying to transpose the current bowl lineup onto a playoff format: Even if Boise State was in the playoff field, why in the world would they be matched up with Oklahoma in a "quarterfinal" bowl game? Wouldn't Boise State be, at best, the No. 7 or No. 8 seed? That would earn them a quarterfinal with either Ohio State or Florida, both superior to Oklahoma.

You can appreciate the amazingness of Boise State's Fiesta Bowl win – it's thrilling ending(s), it's wild trick plays – and still recognize it doesn't solve anything related to CFB's playoff problem.

More on today's biggest storylines:

Nick Saban: Bolt to Bama or stay in Miami? Let's assume the money is equal, what would YOU do if you were him?

Argument to stay in NFL: Already reached the pinnacle of CFB. NFL jobs are harder to get (and better to have). Winning big consistently in the SEC is way harder than making the playoffs in the AFC.

Argument to go back to college: Total control that he'll never have in the NFL. He would instantly become one of the Top 3 coaches in college football. Though he'll never be the highest-paid coach in the NFL; it's a hell of a thing to be the highest-paid coach in college football.

Orange Bowl: Louisville ends Wake Forest's dream season. Wake can't catch a break. Even as they finally emerge from Rutgers' shadow as THE Cinderella of the CFB season, they are eclipsed by Boise State, the Team Everyone Can't Stop Talking About. And then they lose to Louisville in an unremarkable game. (The unintended consequence of Boise State's win over Oklahoma: ALL games are unremarkable by comparison.)

Big questions: (1) Is L'ville QB Brian Brohm going pro? (2) Was Wake's success this season a fluke or is it sustainable?

Tonight's Bowlin': Sugar! LSU vs. Notre Dame. It's very possible that LSU is the REAL 2nd-best team in the country. And, much like Michigan and USC, they'll get a chance to beat up on an overrated Irish team to prove their claim.

Top Sugar Subplots: (1) Can a big game out of LSU QB JaMarcus Russell vault him over Brady Quinn as an NFL draft prospect? (2) Is this Charlie Weis' last game as ND coach?

NBA: AI ejected in return to Philly. But he gave his old fans a perfect snapshot of his tenure there: (1) 30 points. (2) 10/24 FGs. (3) Griping about management. (4) Loss for his team. (Meanwhile, Ron-Ron Artest had a career-high 39 in a Kings W over the Knicks.)

MLB Hot Stove: Big Unit to D'backs. Reportedly, it's going to happen before the end of the week. The biggest impact? With Johnson's $16 million off the payroll, the Yankees can simply and easily slide it right over to... Roger Clemens.

NFL: Matt Millen says "I'll never quit." How nice for him, because it seems that the Lions ownership will never fire him. William Clay Ford is retaining Millen – despite overwhelming fan protest (for years) – and he still has four years left on his contract. I'll repeat what I said on Monday morning: No NFL fan currently suffers like the Lions fan.

DeMeco Ryans wins AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year after leading all NFL players in solo tackles. Given that he was a 2nd-round choice -- and that the Texans used their first overall choice on defensive player Mario Williams -- do you think they now regret not using that pick on Reggie Bush or Vince Young? I'm sure the fans do.

College Hoops: Greg Oden has career-high 21 in Ohio State win over Indiana in Big Ten opener for OSU's Fab Frosh. Why do I think that this won't be Oden's last "career-high" game?

Remember the Dead Schembechlers? They have changed their name. The band is now called "Bastard Sons of Woody." I like that they maintained the integrity of using college football references.

Do you live in New York City? If you're looking for a good time tonight, go check out the Varsity Letters Reading Series, hosted by Carl Bialik of the Wall Street Journal's excellent Daily Fix and Gelf Magazine, recently named one of the top sports media of the year by SI.com. (Want to get on the Varsity Letters mailing list and always be kept updated on the latest events? Email Carl at bialik@gmail.com.) For all the info, click here.

-- D.S.

Tuesday 01/02 A.M. Quickie:Boise State! Best! Ending! Ever?!

Fiesta!!! Boise State pulled off the most entertaining finish EVER to a bowl game, thanks to the dramatic trick plays -- (1) the hook-and-ladder to tie the game in the final seconds of regulation (on 4th-and-18 from midfield!); (2) the wacky, hike-to-RB formation to score a TD in OT, (3) the gutsy, do-a-double-take 2-point conversion to win and...oh, right... (4) the post-game marriage proposal live on national TV.

(Click here or scroll down to see my full post on this all-time amazing game. And here's a link to the best video clip I could find that contained all the plays.)

Where will the unbeaten Broncos finish in the final rankings? I'd put them at No. 3, behind Ohio State and Florida. (Don't even THINK of ranking USC ahead of them. Hint: Compare each team's performance against Oregon State.)

So much for Michigan's worthiness to play in the BCS title game. I look forward to NOT hearing from Michigan fans for at least another 6 months.

USC is No. 1... in '07? USC's big win is very similar to Ohio State's big win over Notre Dame last year in the Fiesta Bowl:

It sets up the Trojans as everyone's team to beat next season. (Without Dwayne Jarrett? Hmm. BTW, he is SICK.)

Nick Saban to Alabama? You can't criticize Bama for not going big – and you couldn't criticize Saban for taking the job. If he accepts, it's a coup for Bama that eclipses the previous month's coaching-search folly. If he declines, the program is effed.

Cards fire Green. Who's next? I've read re-tread Mike Sherman is interviewing, along with Ron Rivera, Norm Chow and Jim Caldwell. If I wanted to focus on offense, I'd hire Chow. If I wanted to focus on defense, I'd hire Rivera. Neither is a bad pick, and both would increase the NFL's pathetic number of minority head coaches.

Falcons fire Mora. Who's next? I read that Blank and McKay will be sure to ask any candidates how they plan to use Vick. Uhh... ya think?! (If they didn't ask Mora that question, maybe McKay should've been fired.)

Bill Cowher done in Pittsburgh? The players think so. The smartest bloggers and analysts think so. It doesn't take a genius to understand he's better off taking a year off, enhancing his rep on TV, then taking the big money in 2008 from, say, Dan Snyder.

Knight 880: Unbreakable record? Of the Top 2 contenders to do it – Coach K won't last long enough before retirement, and Billy Donovan won't last long enough before jumping to the NBA. Plus, it's a moving target: It's not like Knight is retiring any time soon.

NBA back to the leather ball: It returned last night. Keep an eye on whether players struggle with the transition wedged right into the middle of a season. I sort of doubt it.

AI vs. Sixers tonight: I have to believe that Philly fans are too drunk on the Eagles' success to truly care.

College hoops: OK, OK, I believe – After watching UCLA dismantle a very good Washington team, UCLA *is* the No. 1 team in college hoops. I'd still rank Florida over UNC at No. 2, if only because the Gators crushed Ohio State, where the Heels only eked out a win over OSU.

Condolences to family, friends and fans of Broncos CB Darrent Williams. What a horrible story.

-- D.S.

Fiesta! Underdog Boise State Pulls OffMost Entertaining Bowl Game Ever?

Boise State just might very well BE the best team in college football.

And while they'll never actually GET the No. 1 ranking -- despite finishing the season 13-0 -- they are certainly the most entertaining. And, no matter how the BCS title game ends, they were part of the best bowl game of the season.

The only lingering questions? (1) Was it the most exciting bowl game ever? (2) Where WILL Boise State end up in the final rankings? (3) Have you ever watched a more exciting finish to a game?

(1) Most exciting bowl game ever? This year: Definitely. All time? It's hard to top last year's Texas-USC title game. But let's qualify it as the most exciting non-title-game bowl game ever.

(2) Final ranking? Even if Ohio State loses to Florida, it's hard to imagine Boise State being ranked No. 1. But after watching them pour on the points against Oklahoma, is there any doubt they could have hung with ANY of the season's top teams?

I'd actually rank them No. 3, behind Ohio State and Florida. Meanwhile, don't even THINK of ranking USC ahead of Boise State. Just look at the performance against common opponents: USC lost to Oregon State. Boise State clocked Oregon State. Case closed.)

(3) A more exciting finish? Arguably not, though again: Last season's Texas win over USC set a pretty high bar. But consider Boise State's case:

*Trick hook-and-ladder play in dwindling seconds of regulation on 4^th-and-18 to tie the game.

*Trick play to score game-tying TD in OT.

*And then, going for 2 (and the win) in OT... with another trick play... even after showing the formation to Oklahoma before the Sooners called a time-out to scheme a defense for it. It was, without question, the finest sell-job on a play-action play I have ever seen. You need to see the replay to fully appreciate it, and I defy you not to shout out loud when you do.

That, my friends, is cojones.

*Oh, and to top it all off, the game's MVP, Ian Johnson, proposed to his girlfriend on the field -- on national TV -- immediately after the game.

Again: Case closed. This might be one of those games I have to buy on iTunes to have in my library forever.

Here's the larger point: We can argue about where Boise State ranks against the other top teams in the country this year, but the WAY Boise State won that game -- the style, the dramatics, the creative calls, the guts -- ensures that they have earned every college football fan's RESPECT.

-- D.S.

Jan. 1 Bowl Wrap:So Much For Michigan's Worthiness

USC crushes Michigan in the Rose Bowl: See the post below for my take on the short-term "rep" boost for the Big Ten with Wisconsin's win over Arkansas, but it's all moot after Michigan got its ass handed to it by USC.

Michigan fans can argue that the team's BCS snub left it unmotivated, but in reality, they should have recognized that they needed a big win to justify griping over being snubbed by the title game. Again, with this drubbing, the point is moot: Not only is Michigan NOT one of the Top 2 teams in college football this season, they aren't even one of the Top 3 -- obviously, USC is worthy of being ranked higher than Michigan. So so SO obviously.

(PS: I really wish Kirk Herbstreit and Brent Musberger would stop disparaging the "bloggers," as if they/we are some kind of scourge on Michigan. It's just taking cheap shots -- not to mention wildly uninformed analysis to the point of making Kirk and Brent simply sound petty and spiteful. Maybe Kirk is just grumpy that this Michigan team he pimped for days after the BCS title-game selection controversy has, in turn, crapped the bed today.)

Monday 01/01/07 A.M. Quickie:Happy New Year! (Now Give Me My Bowls!)

Happy New Year! Late posting today, but I wanted to comment on two things:

(1) NFL: OK, the Chiefs making the playoffs (or, more accurately, the Broncos completely muffing the playoffs) was a shocker. And though there's no doubt that KC earned it (with by far the toughest Week 17 matchup of any AFC Wild Card contender), Denver completely crapped the bed on this one. KC fans must be thrilled.

Over in the NFC, there might not have been much drama after the Giants clinched the No. 6 spot on Saturday, so how awesome was the Lions-Cowboys result?

(A) The Cowboys swipe the mantle from the Giants for "Least Momentum Heading Into the Playoffs." (B) The Lions manage to bungle the one thing – top draft position – that they really needed. Even when they win, they lose. Unbelievable. I think it's official that rooting for the Lions is the worst fan position in the NFL.

(2) New Year's Day Bowls: As I've said before, the Arkansas-Wisconsin game is a proxy for the BCS title game:

If SEC tops Big Ten, it's one more piece of data that the Big Ten sucked this season and the SEC was terrific. If Big Ten tops SEC, the Big Ten has been underrated and Florida's SEC title-game win isn't what we thought it was. (Meanwhile, the game features the two best RBs returning in college football next year: Darren McFadden and PJ Hill.)

Rose Bowl: I'm torn. As a Big Ten alum, I almost always root for Big Ten teams in bowl matchups. And I absolutely hate USC. But as a Florida fan, I want to see Michigan get beat, if only to end the whining that they somehow deserve to be in the national title game.

Fiesta Bowl: How can you NOT be rooting for Cinderella non-BCS team Boise State to beat big bad Oklahoma and finish the season as potentially the only unbeaten team left?

Join in the comments for your bowl-day observations and analysis. Like me, I assume you're parked in front of the TV, too. Happy New Year!

UPDATE (5:45 p.m.): OK, so Wisconsing beating Arkansas (in what can only be described as one of the least entertaining bowl games I've ever watched) is a huge win for the Big Ten -- and erodes at least a bit of SEC haughtiness from the Bowl Season (and BCS title game).

After all, wasn't Wisconsin supposed to be vastly overrated? Weren't they supposed to be hardly a "quality win" for Michigan, let alone Michigan's "best" win of the season? New reality: Wisco just beat an Arkansas team that was the 3rd-best team in the SEC and one that many (including me) had thought extremely highly of.

It's Wisconsin's first (and only) quality win of the season, but suddenly makes Michigan's win over Wisconsin that much more impressive. (Nevermind that still only makes 1.5 quality wins for Michigan this season -- better-than-we-thought Wisconsin and worse-than-we-thought Notre Dame. But certainly fodder for the argument that the Big Ten isn't being dragged down by Wisconsin being overrated. (God, I'm going to miss college football until next September.)

-- D.S.

Sunday 12/31 Quickie:New Year's Eve Edition!

In classic Quickie style, my 2006 Superlatives:

Best personal moment of the year? Birth of first kid.

Best sports moment of the year? Florida wins NCAA Tournament.

Worst personal moment of the year? Cancellation of the Quickie.

Worst sports moment of the year? Um... cancellation of the Quickie. (Can that count for both?)

Wow, talk about your highs and lows! So: What were YOUR best moments of '06, either sports or otherwise? (I won't make you describe your worst moments. Let's hope they weren't as public as mine.)

Meanwhile, you can talk NFL in the Comments, too, but what's the point when Week 17 is so otherwise meaningless? (Say this for college football's controversial set-up: At least the final week of the regular season meant something -- and it dominated the conversation.)

If I don't connect with you later today, have a safe and enjoyable New Year's Eve, and I'll catch you here tomorrow for Bowl mania.

-- D.S.