Friday 03/23 A.M. Quickie:Name of Game: "Survive and Advance"

Wow, how amazing was that Ohio State-Tennessee game? (Well, at a minimum, the best of the Tournament so far, despite the late finish. Yikes: There is no tougher morning than the Friday after the first night of Sweet 16 games and those late-night tip-times.)

I'm not quite sure how Tennessee blew a 20-point lead (or, alternatively, how Ohio State ralled from 20 points behind), but give the Buckeyes credit for not folding like the young team they are.

After the way they have gritted through the last two rounds, I think they'll finally find a "we're-on-a-mission" complex and beat Memphis – the only thing standing between them and the Final Four. After watching OSU the last two games, I certainly can't doubt them anymore in this region.

Speaking of Memphis, they euthanized my bracket by beating Texas A&M. End-of-game clock issues aside, I wouldn't have called that foul on A&M with three seconds to go, giving Memphis the chance to win the game.

On the one hand, Memphis deserved the call after battling for what seemed like a half-dozen rebounds on that final offensive play. On the other hand, if they couldn't put it in after three tries, they didn't deserve the gimme of the free throws. (Yes, I know the FT shooter wasn't one of their best, and he deserves credit for making 'em both.)

Ah, why should I hide it? Mainly, I'm just pissed one of my Final Four teams was bounced.

Meanwhile, the real pool-killer for me (and let-down for fans everywhere) was SIU losing to Kansas. God, did the Salukis look scrappily upset-worthy. But I'd rather advance in the tournament without honor than lose with respect. In the end, this SIU team was nothing more than a Sweet 16 team.

The other game in the South – UCLA over Pitt – simply showed that Teacher still knows how to kick Student's ass.

The upshot of last night – which I'll post about in more detail later – is that we still have two 1-vs-2 games in the regional finals... which isn't particularly good for the Tournament or compelling for fans. I appreciate that 1-vs-2 is, seeding-wise, the best you could hope for (in theory), but given the history of the Tournament, it's a let-down.

Tournament Challenge: Unsurprisingly (given that I had SIU over Kansas and Texas A&M to the Final Four), I have plummeted to the 40th percentile, but if you used the "National Bracket" to make your picks, you would be beating 85 percent of the field.

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Day 2 Previews coming shortly.

CBB Coaching Carousel: In the Big Ten, Alford out and Tubby in (albeit at different schools).

CBB Coaching Carousel A: Steve Alford leaving Iowa for New Mexico. Hmm: Who will take over at Iowa? How about Winthrop's Greg Marshall?

CBB Coaching Carousel B: Tubby Smith avoids the indignity of being fired by Kentucky by quitting and bolting for Minnesota, a program perhaps even worse off than Northwestern (and that's saying something).

The far more juicy subplot: Who replaces Tubby at Kentucky, which – for all of its recent flaws – is still one of the most legendary coaching roles in college hoops?

(I would equate Kentucky basketball with Alabama football: It's still got a ton of brand value, but it ain't what it used to be. Still, they have the cachet – and booster money – to lure a big-name coach.)

People are saying Billy Donovan, and – as a Florida fan and Donovan fan – I just don't see it. Texas A&M's Billy Gillespie's name has come up, and even though the guy is insanely ambitious, he's also a Texas guy.

I repeat what I said yesterday: What about Rick Pitino?

NBA: Kobe scores 60, making him only the fourth NBA player ever to score 50-plus points in three straight games. Wow. Just wow.

NBA Draft: Duke PF Josh McRoberts declares for the draft, probably a year late in a pool stocked with so many better big men. His final college game (that loss to VCU) aside, I have never seen a big man with so much talent do so little to dominate a game. He's the next Vin Baker. (Meaning: Soft, underachieving big man -- not alcoholic NBA washout.) But you don't need an MBA to know that.

Arenas Watch: I know you all think I'm in the bag for Gilbert (and I am), but I recommend you read his latest blog post, which could be unmatched in terms of star athletes speaking frankly. Here's the link.

MLB: Papelbon to close. So, in the end, the Red Sox will stick Jon Papelbon back in his role as closer. (Most intriguing implication: How does this affect his fantasy-draft value?)

NFL: Anyone want to trade for David Carr? You won't find a more experienced backup QB. (But I'm not sure I would give him the starter's keys.)

Vick Watch: Uh, do you believe that the special compartment in his water bottle was for jewelry? (Yeah: If "jewelry" means "pot.")

Women's College Hoops: Penn State coach Rene Portland was never going to be confused with Pokey Chatman -- what with Portland's whole "no-lesbians" thing -- but she resigned from Penn State. Wanna bet there's more going on behind the scenes than has been reported?

Cricket: Pakistan's coach was strangled to death. Holy shit, that's a crazy turn.

Pop Culture: Peyton Manning to host "Saturday Night Live" this weekend, marking the final evolution of him into the NFL's most omnipresent fame whore. He can redeem himself by reprising Joe Montana's role with the classic "I'm going upstairs..." line.

5,000-to-1 odds of me being the next Editor-in-Chief of ESPN.com? I'd think I would at least have a 300-to-1 shot, which is the Nationals' MLB-worst odds of winning the World Series.

-- D.S.

Well, MY Bracket Is Busted

Damn! Well, I needed Southern Illinois to upset Kansas for my "differential" pick in the Sweet 16. But in the end, I needed Texas A&M -- one of my Final Four teams -- to win even more. (Sigh. Another year, another middling pool finish.) -- D.S.

NCAA Breaking: Tubby Smith to MinnesotaWho Takes Over at Kentucky?

Well, now THIS is an interesting way to lead into tonight's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 games: Tubby Smith is out at Kentucky -- and in at Minnesota.

I'm sure Kentucky fans' heads are spinning giddily over the developments. Who would replace Tubby? Mark Few of Gonzaga? Not nearly "SEC" enough. Notre Dame's Mike Brey? Zzz. Marquette's Tom Crean? Wasn't he a hot name, like, four years ago?

Florida's Billy Donovan? Only in the same fantasy that has Ashley Judd being hired as my son's nanny... with benefits. Why would he leave Gainesville? Florida has eclipsed UK as a program.

Here's what Kentucky fans are going to find out: Their program isn't what it used to be -- one of the Top 5 college hoops coaching jobs in America. No longer.

Seriously, I'd call Pitino.

Thursday 03/22 A.M. Quickie:Sweet 16 Preview and Predictions

Just to clarify, Gisele Bundschen is not having Tom Brady's baby, as previously reported/speculated. Presumably, now he can concentrate on his one bastard baby. And WE can concentrate on the return to the Tournament tonight...

"Sweet 16 – Day 1" Edition:

(4) Southern Illinois vs. (1) Kansas.
Not to be too me-first, but this is the game that will make or break my pool status. Everyone basically has the same Final Four teams, and Kansas is a very popular pick. I have the Salukis beating KU. Had. Had the Salukis beating KU. When I filled out my bracket 10 days ago.

After watching Kansas play twice, I am less confident. (SIU – "So. Ill." in Quickie terms – also has a key player injured.) Kansas is playing better than any team in the field right now. Their ability to change directions from defense to offense is staggering. Their players are so damn athletic. Julian Wright was on my first-team All-Tournament First Weekend. (And Wright might just be the most intriguing player in the NBA Draft. Hell, you pretty much know what you're getting with Durant. What the hell do you get with the unique package that is Wright?)

And so I'm worried about my bracket. Very worried. If SIU wins, I am going to make some noise. If SIU loses, my chances are seriously damaged. I'd like to think that SIU presents a challenge defensively that Kansas hasn't seen this season. That after two virtual blowouts, a close game might cause the Jayhawks to seize up a little bit down the stretch. I'm not confident.

My bracket says: Southern Illinois
My gut says: Eh...Kansas.
(That's not supposed to be a hedge. I'm beholden to my bracket. So. Ill. is the pick.)

(3) Texas A&M vs. (2) Memphis.
There's a reason I picked 1-seed Memphis to lose in the first round of last year's tournament: I think they are so overrated, I can't even describe it. I dislike the coach. I dislike the players. I dislike the program. Who in their right mind thinks that this team can win the region, let alone a national title? All I know is that Texas A&M remains the anti-Memphis: Popular pick, even "trendy." They seem to be pretty clutch. Coach Billy Gillespie seems like a likeable, quirky guy. And who DOESN'T love Acie Law? Finally, the biggest point: Home-court advantage. How much will it help Texas A&M to be playing in San Antonio? Huge, I'm betting.

My bracket says: Texas A&M
My gut says: Texas A&M

(3) Pittsburgh vs. (2) UCLA.
Well, the best storyline of the night is that former Pitt coach Ben Howland has to play against his old team, his old players and his old protege. If any team knows how to play against a Howland-coached team, it's a Howland-coached team. That makes this the opposite of whatever a traditional "contrast in styles" game is.

My bracket says: UCLA
My gut says: UCLA

(5) Tennessee vs. (1) Ohio State.
Given (a) the trouble that Xavier caused the Buckeyes, (b) the Vols' "small-ball" style of play and (c) the way Tennessee negated Florida's size when they thumped the Gators a few weeks ago, I think that Tennessee could very well beat Ohio State.

At the very least, I think their style of play will force Thad Matta to play Greg Oden many fewer minutes than he would normally want to.

(Of course, given how much better Ohio State played AFTER Oden fouled out against Xavier, they might be better off if he DOESN'T play that much. That's a funny thing to say about the consensus No. 1 pick in the 2007 NBA Draft, isn't it?)

My bracket says: Ohio State.
My gut says: Tennessee.
(Again, that's not a hedge. I'm behind my bracket. Ohio State is the pick. I'm just saying that I think the Vols give them a hell of a game.)

So that's the topic on the table: Who do you see advancing tonight and why?

College Hoops Coaching Carousel: New Mexico is getting Iowa's Steve Alford and the Hawkeyes are going to let him go. OK, so who wants to be Iowa's next head coach? That's a pretty good gig, perfect for a coach from, say, the Missouri Valley Conference. Maybe Winthrop's Greg Marshall?

CBB Hilarity: This Ron Guenther story is pretty funny: The Illinois AD made the mistake of demonstrably and publicly yelling at his coach from the stands. You know what? It makes me like him more.

I appreciate that you want a minimum of decorum from your school's AD, but I love the fact that he cares enough to let his emotions take over during a game -- just like a fan. The school said he won't be punished.

Do you know "NOTY?" While I was talking up "Enlightened Bracketologist" yesterday, I should have used that as a segue to point you to the excellent blog Name of the Year. Only one week left to get your 2007 ballot/bracket voted on and sent it. (I used to pick Page 2's NCAA Tournament All-Name Teams, so this site is close to my heart.)

NIT: Clemson and Air Force round out that other men's Final Four. When I was on the AFA bandwagon back in November and December, I *knew* I should have been saying, "They're a Final Four darkhorse – an NIT Final Four darkhorse!"

NFL: Falcons trade QB Matt Schaub to Texans. (But they won't admit it yet.) Longtime Quickie readers know that I've been touting Schaub as the best backup QB in the NFL (and a better fit for the Falcons' West Coast offense than Mike Vick... not a better QB than Vick necessarily, but better in the offense that Mora chose to run). Now he'll get his chance as a starter in Houston.

More NFL: The new discipline policy could go into effect as early as next week. Even more than PED-testing, I think this will have a profound effect on the game – if the league exercises it. But what happens when so many players get in trouble it guts the game?

In a related note, apparently Levi Jones tossed Joey Porter around like a rag-doll when they went at it. OT vs. LB? I'd say that makes sense.

More NFL: Big Ben rips ex-coach Ken Whisenhunt, who had criticized Ben as rushing back last season. Ben disagreed, noting that he disagreed with Whisenhunt a lot. Whoops.

MLB: Tony LaRussa arrested for DUI. Chalk it up to a defending champ's curse. Perhaps "Three Nights in August" is more appropriately summed up as a future stay in the drunk tank.

More: Yankees say they won't offer A-Rod a contract extension. I think it's yet another signal that he takes the option to leave the team after the season.

Matsuzaka Watch: 5.2 solid IP, his best spring outing yet. Am I still going to pick him for AL Cy Young? The MLB Season Preview post is coming soon...

Extra Innings Update: Cable operators made their pitch, but MLB didn't swing – the net result is that you still can't buy Extra Innings on your cable system.

NBA: Did Celtics coach Doc Rivers throw the game versus the Bobcats? He can protest he didn't, but he left the second-string in while Boston blew an 18-point lead and lost the game – but helped their Lottery chances. I would respect him more if he said he DID throw the game. I'll bet Boston fans would, too. It's very hard not to look at that result skeptically and at least label it a "virtually thrown game."

Finals preview? Mavs beat Cavs. I love how some people tabbed this as a potential Finals match-up. The Mavs would sweep. The Cavs are not ready.

The Southeast race is kind of interesting. The Wizards hold a slim lead over the Heat after an Arenas buzzer-beater took Washington over Seattle. Meanwhile, the Heat won their 10th in 11 games. ("They're better WITHOUT Wade!" Ha ha: Not quite, but their Wade-less success is interesting, isn't it?)

Chris Bosh vs. Dwight Howard: Without Bargnani (appendectomy) as a sidekick, Bosh was dominant (34 points, 16 rebounds) and outplayed Howard (17/12) in a Raptors win. Between Bosh, Howard and Amare, is Bosh the best young big man in the game?

More NBA: The reason I believe Kobe Bryant that he wasn't doing some side-recruiting for Nike of Kevin Durant is because it's so obvious that Durant will be a Jordan Brand player.

Speaking of Durant, he became the first freshman to ever win the Player of the Year award from the National Association of Basketball Coaches (which should lead you to wonder what the NABC was smoking when they opted not to select Carmelo Anthony as POY when he was a freshman).

LPGA to ban, test for steroids: What, you didn't think that PEDs were as rampant among the ladies as they are in the guys' sports?

-- D.S.

Wednesday 03/21 A.M. Quickie:Wait, When Do The Games Start Again?

The Wednesday before the Sweet 16 starts is a very strange day in sports:

With everyone's attention still focused on the NCAA Tournament – but more than 48 hours since the most recent game ended and more than 24 hours until the next round begins – it's a whole lot of... waiting.

Maybe that's why the sports-news slate is so thin this morning. I'll try to update throughout the day with interesting posts that pop up.

UPDATE 2: Scroll down (or simply click here) for a revival of the old "Quickie Book Club" feature for a new book that I think is particularly relevant this month, "The Enlightened Bracketologist." It's a ton of fun. (The book, not my post. But read the post anyway.)

UPDATE: I just finally got a chance to read the New York Times story today about OJ Mayo's "recruitment" to USC. I can't figure out who looks like the bigger douchebag: Mayo or USC coach Tim Floyd?

Women's NCAA Tournament: Defending champs KO'ed! Maryland loses in the second round to Ole Miss. The women's tournament is much more exciting than the men's this year.

NFL: Redskins trade S Adam Archuleta, one year off of a sweet free-agent deal, to the Bears for a late-round pick.

MLB: Manny Being Manny Update. He put his $4000 grill on eBay and the bidding is up to $20K. Good luck collecting on that fake bid, Manny.

MLB: Dodgers GM Ned Colletti gives manager Grady Little the dreaded vote of confidence. If LA misses the playoffs, watch the fire wire.

Stalker Watch: The woman once accused of stalking Bob Uecker was asked to leave a Brewers game yesterday. That's just some scary stuff.

MLB Injury Watch: Come collect your prize if you had "On the DL" for where you predicted Kerry Wood and Mark Prior would start the season.

NIT: West Virginia and Mississippi State win their quarters to advance to the semis in NYC next week.

Brackets: The NCAA seems to be trying to keep athletes from participating in online pools. Wanna bet how many still do?

Tournament Challenge Update: Props to P. Clevenger and L. Jalbert for leading the ultra-competitive Daily Quickie Readers group. Slim lead over C. Ward, B. Baumann and D. Krupa. (Great: Now I'm going to sit here all day trying to guess first names...)

NBA: Fines MJ $15K for talking about Kevin Durant, which seems hypocritical, given that it was the league's own rules that created Durant Mania.

More NBA: If the Sixers want to continue to keep sucking, they can replace GM Billy King with Larry Brown.

NBA Draft: Big Baby is entering the draft. He might have been better off last year; this year's class is SO deep with big men. He's still a first-round pick, most likely knocking yet another guard to the 2nd.

NFL Scheduling: Rumors floating around are that the season-opening Thursday night game will be between the reigning champ Colts and the feel-good Saints in Indy.

NFL Suspensions: Will Roger Goodell suspend Pacman Jones for the entire 2007 season? It's a rare decision where you'll hear very few complaints from fans, media and bloggers. (h/t ProFootballTalk)

-- D.S.

Quickie Book Club:"The Enlightened Bracketologist"

When I first found out that The Enlightened Bracketologist was going to be published, I sent frenzied emails to basically everyone I knew who was a sports fan/writer: "HOW DID WE NOT THINK OF THIS?!?!"

I fully admit: I have a bracket fetish. And so if, like me, you think that the NCAA Tournament's bracket structure is the most perfect thing in all of sports, then you will also agree that a book's premise is also damn near perfect:

Applying the "bracket" system to solve any/every argument.

Let me put it this way: It's cool enough that I would buy it in its current hardback edition for display on a coffee table. (At least it's displayed that way on mine.)

The authors scored a coup by writing very little of the book themselves. Even better: They got experts in each bracket's field to supply the seeding and the projection of how the bracket would advance:

Some of my favorites: Roz Chast on "Animation Characters"; Stanley Bing on "Corporate Jargon"; Stefan Fatsis on "Scrabble Words"; Jeff MacGregor on "NASCAR Phrases"; Steven Garvey on "Baby Boy Names" and Michael Solomon on "Jew/Not a Jew."

In terms of sports-specific brackets, they include March Madness Moments (naturally); Baseball Myths, Celebrity Sports Couples, Spotscaster Signature Calls, Golf Swing Thoughts, Innovations in Sports, Magical Sports Numbers, NASCAR Phrases, Sport/Not a Sport and Sports Books -- that's nearly 10 percent of the book, as it should be.

Editors Mark Reiter and Richard Sandomir (who you might know as the New York Times' sports media columnist) obviously had a ton of fun putting this together, and it shows.

If I was more clever (and had better knowledge of HTML), I would have done a meta-bracket of the book's bracket topics, but that's probably the best feature of the book:

As much as an "enlightened" look at some of the great arguments of our time, it can inspire countless more bracket-driven arguments. (Frankly, it sounds like a hell of a party game.)

I can just imagine that Reiter and Sandomir are already at work on a sequel. I just hope they ask me to participate. If not, I'll be sitting at home, doing them in my head anyway.

It's really one of the most fun books I have ever come across, and I highly recommend it.

-- D.S.

Tuesday 03/20 A.M. Quickie:There Are No Cinderellas Here

I spent yesterday affirming that, indeed, there are no Cinderellas in this year's Sweet 16.

7-seed UNLV? Not with that Top 10 RPI. 6-seed Vandy? I have a hard time with a 6-seed who finished second in a high-major conference being thought of as a "Cinderella." How about "name" Cinderellas like Butler or Southern Illinois? It's an offense to the concept of "Cinderella" that we would even CONSIDER that a 4- or 5-seed could be a Cinderella.

It's like a statistical correction from last year's run by George Mason. The Tournament has a way of evening itself out, and this year's result only shows how vital Cinderellas are to the process.

All-Tournament (So Far): Meanwhile, I quickly came to some conclusions about my All-Tournament Team from the First Weekend: Acie Law, Derrick Byars, Tyler Hansbrough, Al Horford, Julian Wright.

NFL: Joey Porter faces battery charge after cutting Bengals OT Levi Jones. Two points here: (1) Yet another embarrassing off-field incident for the NFL; (2) Finally, a Bengals player is on the OTHER side of an arrest.

More NFL Blotter: Police are investigating a rape report from the home of Patrick Kerney, who just signed a free-agent deal with the Seahawks. Kerney has not been named as a suspect. (Well... yet.)

NBA: Dirk says he gets nerves. "I think everybody who says they don't get tense, they're lying." Yes, but they don't TALK about it.

Meanwhile, don't look now, but the Hawks are only 4 games out of the playoffs in the East. Every game they win is putting more distance between the Suns and that Hawks' Lottery pick that PHX owns.

NAIA Tournament: Four OTs later, Concordia (CA) KO'ed top-seeded Robert Morris in the semis. Can you imagine what the reaction would be if a game like that happened in the D1 Final Four?

Women's Tournament: Upset City! 13-seed Marist knocks out 5-seed Middle Tennessee to become only the third 13-seed ever to make it to the Women's Sweet 16. (2-seed Stanford was upset, too, by Florida State.)

NIT: I guess it WAS a good idea to put Syracuse in the NIT. The Orange's Carrier Dome win last night in the quarterfinals was the largest NIT crowd ever.

(More: Kansas State was eliminated by DePaul. Their consolation prize is that between the arrival of Durant-like freshman Michael Beasley and the return of Bill Walker from injury, the Wildcats are one day closer to making the NCAA Tournament, not the NIT, next year.)

MLB Notes: David Wells has diabetes. Does that really surprise you?... Ken Griffey moves to RF. That will seem kind of strange actually... Dontrelle Willis (my favorite pitcher -- and perhaps player -- in baseball) will be the Marlins' Opening Day starter. Again: Does that really surprise you?

Varsity Dad: Gilbert Arenas joins the club! ("Daddy Zero?") His new baby boy already has a nickname, and it might not surprise you to learn Gilbert had endorsement deals in mind. Here's the post.

-- D.S.

Monday 03/19 A.M. Quickie:Only If "Sweet" Means "Favorites Advance"

Thoughts on the NCAA Tournament... while wondering if I'm the only person who was pleased by Greg Oden's crazy-hard foul as the first reliable indicator that the guy actually cares.

(I'm also wondering if I'm the only person who noticed that Ohio State got noticeably better after Oden fouled out. Coincidence? Perhaps not.)

Check out my latest Tournament piece in today's Wall Street Journal Online.

Meanwhile, here's my biggest storyline: Despite the uptick in excitement over the weekend, the favorites continue to march on. That lends itself to a key question today:

Where is Cinderella? Or, more interestingly, in the absence of some double-digit seed crashing the party (for the first time in 10 years), WHAT is a Cinderella?

The highest seed left is 7, which is sort of Cindy-ish. But UNLV also beat arguably the weakest team of the 2-seeds. (Nothing against the Rebels, though. Can't wait for the clips from that '90 team.)

Here's an interesting phenomenon: From their seedings, 4-seed Southern Illinois and 5-seed Butler have absolutely no business being described as Cinderellas. But their mid-major status conflicts with that. Would you call 5-seed Tennessee or 5-seed USC a Cinderella? Hardly.

It lends itself to a fascinating discussion about what, exactly, makes a Cinderella. I'd argue that it SHOULD be seeding (6/7-plus, at least), but it WILL be the "rep" factor of the team.

Little ol' Butler FEELS like a Cinderella, even though they were seeded with an EXPECTATION of making the Sweet 16. So they hardly qualify.

But if everything continues to proceed like they have in the first two rounds, we won't have to worry about "Cinderella." It will be all high seeds, all the time.

A few more things noticed after watching Tournament all weekend:

1-seeds: KU looked the best, but played the worst team of the four. But you can't say Florida, UNC and Ohio State didn't look vulnerable. Were those close wins wake-up calls or foreshadowing of early exits?

(OK, this is the type of post that freaks me out as a Gators fan: Oregon is the new Florida. Here's my response: Yes, the path is eerily similar, but I'm not seeing enough roster similarities. Presuming the great outside shooting is a push, last year's Florida team had an unmatched FOUR post players in its rotation, and that doesn't even count Corey Brewer, who was probably the best defensive player in the tournament field.)

Durant is Done: I know his NBA potential is amazing, but it's hard to sustain excitement for a National Player of the Year who can't even get his team out of the first weekend of the Tournament. What a let-down. (Yeah, yeah: 30 points. More relevant: 1 Tournament win.)

(I wonder if the bitter taste of this loss will inspire him to think twice about jumping to the NBA. Doubt it. I think he's gone, and I wouldn't be surprised if PG DJ Augustine bolted, too.)

Looking ahead: UCLA-Pitt is the game to watch, because of the backstory of Ben Howland formerly coaching at Pitt, leaving them for the Bruins and being replaced by his protege, Jamie Dixon.

Florida-Butler: As a Gators fan, this scares me. Butler is like a better Purdue.

Oregon-UNLV: I can't believe UNLV has repositioned itself as a Cinderella after all those years as the Bad Boys of college hoops.

KU-So. Ill.: It's been too easy for the Jayhawks so far. How will they handle it if they're in a close game?

UNC-USC: Well, all of a sudden this game isn't NEARLY as exciting as it would have been if the Heels were playing Texas.

Georgetown-Vandy: No team is playing better than the Hoyas, but no team is worthy of "Cinderella" status more than the Commodores.

Ohio State-Tennessee: As mentioned above, the Buckeyes would do well to sit Oden and play small-and-fast versus the Vols.

Memphis-Texas A&M: Watch that Aggies home-court advantage! The regional is in San Antonio.

Tournament Challenge: I have 10 out of 16 Sweet 16 teams. Where'd I go wrong?

USC: Didn't everyone get this wrong?
Vandy: Ditto.
Memphis: I was done when Creighton lost.
Pitt: But picking VCU was worth the loss.
UNLV: At least I picked Wisco to lose.
Butler: Damn my hometown bias for the Terps.

Here's the thing: If I followed my own advice and stuck with the "National Bracket," I would be beating 90 percent of all individual bracket entries right now. 90 percent!

More Sports News Items:

NBA: Kobe scores 50 on Sunday to follow up his 65 on Friday. Not bad. But what did he do in the NCAA Tournament? (Oh. Right.)

NFL: Packers say Rodgers not on block for Moss. Either the GM is lying or he's stupid. (Or both.) How could they not even consider that deal?

Varsity Dad: For those of you parents out there following the "soft launch," there's a new post up.

Seriously: It's like there's nothing else going on in sports this week...

-- D.S.

NCAA Tournament Round 2 Day 2 Live-Comment

UPDATE: Well, sort of on the "dramatic," but not nearly as much as Saturday. Nevermind that I was basically eating the couch cushion for 38 of Florida's 40 minutes against Purdue. More of the same: Favorites continuing to roll.

UNLV over Wisconsin was an upset in name only; some of us foresaw Wisco going out in this round (yet some of us also foresaw Georgia Tech bouncing them, so go figure...).

Also, I have decided that 5-over-4 games in the Second Round (see: Tennessee over UVA) are the equivalent of 9-over-8 in the First Round; it's just hard to get too worked up that it's an upset, except...

USC over Texas! Given the OVERLOAD of hype for Kevin Durant and UT heading into this tournament, his exit in the first weekend is extremely notable (and not just because it busts any bracket that had the Longhorns, say, beating UNC and advancing to the Elite Eight. D'oh!) And to get worked over as badly as they did? The Longhorns are the Dud of the Tournament. I don't care how young they are: If Rick Barnes can't win with this much talent, he can't win, period.

Complete Sweet 16 coverage coming Monday morning. My bracket is pretty broken right now, but here's food for thought: If you used the "National Bracket" to make your picks, you'd be beating 90 percent of all individual brackets out there.

ORIGINAL POST: We can only hope that today's games match yesterday's for dramatic finishes -- with maybe one or two upsets thrown in for good measure. (If everyone -- um, me -- doubted UVA and they advance to the Sweet 16, does that count as an "upset?")

Sunday A.M. Quickie:Tournament Redemption

I'll just point to the final update post from yesterday night:

"Ask and ye shall receive! Now THIS was a great day of games! (Even if the favorites dominated... except for hardly-mid-major Butler and suddenly-Cindy-ish 6-seed Vandy!) Like many, I was sad to see VCU get KO'ed, but at least it was a dramatic game. At this point, that's all we're looking for. And, after waiting around for two days, we finally got."

If you love tight games and great finishes, Round 2 was everything Round 1 was not. At the same time, it's hard not to notice: The favorites continued to win: UNC, Ohio St, Georgetown, UCLA, Pitt, Texas A&M. 5-over-4 isn't much of an "upset," even if the winning team is mid-major Butler and the losing team is big-conference Maryland.

So thank goodness for Vandy. (When did you ever think you'd say that?) Only a handful of higher-seeded teams stands between the Commodores being the only Cindy of the Sweet 16. If that's not the case, it means that sometime today, the favorite went down. I won't hold my breath, but I'll hope.

Meanwhile, today's previews and picks:

5 Tennessee over 4 UVA
UVA wants to score? Vols can score.
1 Florida over 9 Purdue
Because if not, I'm wrecked for '07.
7 UNLV over 2 Wisconsin
I had GA Tech winning here. Same diff.
4 So. Ill. over 5 VA Tech
Hokies got their Tourney miracle in Rd. 1
3 Oregon over 11 Winthrop
Winthrop's goal was to win ONE game, right?
7 Nevada over 2 Memphis
I had Creighton winning here. Same diff.
1 Kansas over 8 Kentucky
KU's offense is clicking.
4 Texas over 5 USC
Day ends with more "Durant Show."

Live-comment coming later today.

NCAA Tournament Round 2, Day 1 Live-Comment

UPDATE 2: Ask and ye shall receive! Now THIS was a great day of games! (Even if the favorites dominated... except for hardly-mid-major Butler and suddenly-Cindy-ish 6-seed Vandy!) Like many, I was sad to see VCU get KO'ed, but at least it was a dramatic game. At this point, that's all we're looking for. And, after waiting around for two days, we finally got.

UPDATE 1: OK, so today is definitely an improvement on Round 1. Ohio State taken to the limit and now mid-major Butler knocking off big-conference Maryland (but given the styles of the two teams, you kind of had to see it coming... of course, I didn't on MY bracket, but that's another story.)

And Louisville and Texas A&M are in a tight one that should stay close the rest of the way.

ORIGINAL POST: Well, at least the Ohio State-Xavier game was an exciting one, even if OSU won the game (or, I should say, Xavier choked it away).

Worth noting: OSU played so much better without Oden. (And where was Oden down the stretch of regulation? Why isn't he demanding the ball? And why doesn't Matta run the O through him?)

Meanwhile, I can't believe Jim Nantz is shilling for Circuit City. It seems so... lowbrow for someone who hangs his hat on "A tradition unlike any other..."

Saturday 03/17 Quickie:Worst. First Round. Ever.

The NCAA first-round returns are in, and this was -- without standard Shanoffian hyperbole or instant hysteria:

Worst. First Round. Ever.

No upsets. I steadfastly refuse to count 9-over-8 as an "upset," so we're left with two in the entire Tournament first round:

VCU over Duke, which will only grow in legend given its upset novelty.

Winthrop over Notre Dame, which nearly half of America saw coming, hardly qualifying it as a classic "upset."

No fantastic finishes. How pathetic (and/or symbolic) is it that VCU-Duke has to pull double-duty as both "best/only upset" and "best/only fantastic finish?" (Maybe VA Tech over Illinois on a 12-0 game-ending run, but that was less fantastic than ugly.)

This year's theme so far? Lame, predictable results.

And that is the worst possible thing to happen to the Tournament.

I guess it's testimony to the Tournament's history and legacy of upsets and wild finishes that a Tournament without them seems so... worthless.

I'm sure that as rounds go by and results (hopefully) offer upsets and great finishes, we'll forget about this first round. First rounds are rarely remembered anyway -- except for their upsets and wild finishes.

Which is precisely why this first round -- for all of our lamentations Friday night and Saturday morning -- is so forgettable.

How's your bracket look?

Tournament Challenge: I'm in the 72nd percentile of the Daily Quickie Readers group. But I lost one Sweet 16 team (Creighton) and one Elite Eight team (Georgia Tech). This was NOT the year to take a flier on a few underdogs going long.

National Bracket: The collective wisdom of all fans' picks is outperforming 72 percent of all individual brackets. But here's something interesting: The two outright upsets that were predicted on the National Bracket -- Gonzaga and Georgia Tech -- didn't happen. Seems like the "collective wisdom" couldn't foresee that the first round would suck so badly.

See yesterday's Quickie post below for my picks and previews for today's games. Let's just say this: We BETTER get some upsets and/or fanstastic finishes.

Please.

-- D.S.

NCAA Tournament Round 1 Day 2 Live-Blog

EVENING UPDATE 2: Well, what do you know! More games, more lame-ass, better-seed-winning results! This entire first round goes down as the Lamest Ever, and I'm not sure it's close. Let's review: One decent upset (VCU). One upset everyone saw coming (Winthrop). And that's it. So few that three 9 over 8 upsets suddenly seem to sound good as "upsets." All I can say is: We better see some seriously crazy results this weekend.

EVENING UPDATE 1: Why shouldn't we expect more of the same? Kansas? Texas? Southern Illinois? Florida? All expected winners. How sad that our hopes to salvage the day for an upset rests not with some fun mid-major but Illinois? A 12-seed is a 12-seed, I guess.

UPDATE 5: Ho-hum! 7 over 10? Another game, another "seed" win. (Looks like Creighton was a bit of a mid-major inflation, versus Nevada, a little less cachet but a little more winning.) Wisconsin wins. Oregon seems to have its game in hand after a slow start.

All I can say is that the second round better be (a) full of upsets and (b) full of close games, because we are one uneventful night set away from being the Lamest Tournament First-Round Ever.

UPDATE 4: Winthrop wins! And, yet, it figures in The Most Drama-Free Tournament First Round Ever that the one upset of the day would be the ONE upset that EVERYONE saw coming since, like, last March. And TAMU-CC looks like a one-half wonder. Damn.

UPDATE 3: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is about to save this Tournament from itself (VCU, notwithstanding). Oh, and I guess Winthrop was for real. Very real.

UPDATE 2: There's nothing quite as depressing as watching a long-shot team you picked for the Elite Eight start out a first-round game sucking, then battle back into it -- only to eff up the ending. (I suppose it could be worse: In the Sports Bog "Celebrity" Pool, Ken "KenPom" Pomeroy had GT going to his Final Four.)

UPDATE: As long as UVA loses on Sunday, picking Albany was worth what seemed like a decent risk at the time. Now, all I need is GA Tech to continue their mini-surge to avoid becoming GACK Tech. (Yes, I know they weren't the favorites. Uh, except in the National Bracket.)

ORIGINAL POST: I can't believe that I'm going to go from the lofty heights of a great Day 1 to bottoming-out on my bracket when Georgia Tech poops the bed vs. UNLV. (I have Tech to the Elite Eight. I can already feel the hindsight bubbling up, like a belch: WHAT WAS I THINKING?)

Picking Albany over UVA? Worth the risk, given that I have the winner of the game losing in Round 2 anyway. (But UVA looks damn good. Almost as much as Albany looks weak.)

Besides, right now I am focusing all my energy rooting for North Texas over Memphis. Might I have been one year (and one seed) off on my pick of Memphis being upset in the first-round?

-- D.S.

Not Tournament-related, but new: My season preview of the Nationals is up at Deadspin. Check it out!

It's notable because it represents the second team I have adopted -- in a major sport, no less -- because it was available to me to write as a Deadspin preview and because I previously didn't have a strong allegiance in the sport. Shallow? Yes. Awesome? Yes.

Oh, and here's the Nats preview from The Dugout. You shame me, gents.

Friday 03/16 (Tourney) Quickie:VCU Saves the Tournament!

There was one result – ONE – that could singlehandedly save yesterday's NCAA Tournament games from a legacy of being the least entertaining, dramatic or meaningful "Round 1-Day 1" that anyone could remember.

Duke losing to VCU in a nail-biter.

Thankyouverymuch. And, given that result, the consequence is that no one will really remember that the rest of the day was kind of a dud. They will just remember this:

Just that Duke lost.

To VCU...
On the Tournament's first day...
In the only real upset of the entire day...

Perhaps it is actually harder to hate Duke today: Maybe a team that is so mediocre just isn't worth the wrath? (Nahhh!)

God: It was so so SO sweet, wasn't it?

(Great related column: Will Leitch has a great essay about Duke losing to VCU in today's online edition of the New York Times. Subscription req'd.)

Next-Biggest Storyline: Other than that, yesterday's main storyline was the utter lack of drama and/or upsets (before VCU/Duke. Xavier/BYU, as an 8-9 game most people didn't care about, doesn't really qualify).

The Tournament has built itself on either (a) upsets or (b) fantastic finishes. Outside of VCU/Duke, there weren't really any. This is bad – very bad – for the Tournament.

The good news is that if the Tournament, statistically, HAS to have SOME upsets or great finishes, we're due today for at least a couple, aren't we?

How about, say, a 13-seed Albany over a 4-seed UVA followed by a Georgia Tech over a UNLV to start the day, with maybe a Winthrop over a Notre Dame and Creighton over Nevada in the late-afternoon set.

Too much to ask? I say we're entitled. (And, um, my bracket's future sort of depends on it.)

Bracket Update: OK, so who ELSE had VCU beating Duke? How does everyone's brackets look today, halfway through the first round?

I went 14-2, missing Indiana and Xavier. I had Gonzaga and BYU losing in the next round anyway, so they aren't bracket-killing mistakes.

Embittered Hindsights:

(1) Xavier is such a clutch Tournament team, I should have never doubted them

(2) Indiana? Away from home? Against Gonzaga? I'd pick against them again.

Tournament Challenge Update: In the "Daily Quickie Readers" group a grand total of SEVEN people (out of nearly 1500!) got all 16 games right yesterday.

Everyone else's chances of having the mythical "Perfect Bracket" were obliterated within the Tournament's first 16 games.

National Bracket Update: If you used the "National Bracket" to make your picks, you would have gone 13-3.

Consider that, if you didn't do that well. (Of course, the N.B. will ALWAYS look better on a day with few upsets.)

The N.B.'s biggest misses was calling the Gonzaga upset outright and, to a lesser extent, Marquette over Michigan State in a "toss-up" 8-9 game.

But in Dan Steinberg's DC Sports Bog "Celebrity" Pool, I'm tied for second, behind Steinberg himself. Doesn't he know that it's totally uncool to be winning your own pool? Here's a link.

Quickie-style recap of yesterday's results:

NIGHT GAMES:
Indiana d. Gonzaga
Zags' mystique nearly as eroded as Duke's
UNC d. E. Kentucky
Compare to how other 1-seeds dominated.
Xavier d. BYU
Drew Lavender: The new Earl Boykins?
Pitt d. Wright State
Happy to draw VCU over Duke? Or worse off?
UCLA d. Weber St
Just tracking Collison's ankle (looks good!)
Michigan St d. Marquette
As ugly as we thought it'd be
Ohio St d. CCSU
Oden/Conley end Tourney virginity
VCU d. Duke
See post below. HAHAHAHAHAHA!

Afternoon Games:
Vandy d. GW
Surprisingly easily, wouldn't you say?
Texas A&M d. Penn
Trendy Aggies scared early, revved late
G'town d. Belmont
Hoyas' size was too much
Butler d. ODU
Bulldogs' late shooting pulls away
Wazzu d. Oral
Wazzu better than you thought, aren't they?

Click here for my late-afternoon live-blog.

L'ville d. Stanford
Cardinal were an embarrassment to at-larges
BC d. Texas Tech
Another early-round KO for Knight
Maryland d. Davidson
Looking ready for a run to the Sweet 16?

Click here for my early-afternoon live-blog.

Quickie-style preview of today's games:
(My picks to win are listed)

AFTERNOON SET:
13 Albany over 4 Virginia
Could start my Round 1, Day 2 badly.
10 Georgia Tech over 7 UNLV
Pool-wreck Potential! I have Tech to 8.
2 Memphis over 15 North Texas
Another lightweight win for Tigers.
11 Winthrop over 6 Notre Dame
This is THE trendy upset pick of Round 1.
5 Tennessee over 12 Long Beach St
12-over-5? No: Vols love LBS style of play.
2 Wisconsin over 15 A&M-CC
Too much banging by the Badgers.
10 Creighton over 7 Nevada
Another trendy upset pick for Round 1

DREADED 5 PM GAME:
3 Oregon over 14 Miami (Ohio)
Wazzu set it up: Pac-10 looks good!

NIGHT SET:
1 Kansas over 16 Niagara
Self ready to end KU's Round 1 Kurse?
5 VA Tech over 12 Illinois
Illinois needs to avoid "pulling a Stanford"
8 Arizona over 9 Purdue
Will confirm it's a good Round 1 for Pac-10
4 Texas over 13 New Mexico St
Adjust your MMOD screen to "Durant Channel."
9 Villanova over 8 Kentucky
Nova's Reynolds is a big-conference S. Curry.
4 Southern Illinois over 13 Holy Cross
Salukis in rare position of heavy favorite.
1 Florida over 16 Jackson State
If Gators lose, don't look for me for a while.
5 USC over 12 Arkansas
Pac-10's Round 1 dominance capped off.

Worth a quick look: Saturday's Round 2:

4 Maryland vs. 5 Butler
Terps: Good inconsistent? Or bad?
(Pick: Maryland)

3 Pitt vs. 11 VCU
How can you NOT root for VCU?
(Pick: VCU)

2 UCLA vs. 7 Indiana
Road finally catches up with Hoosiers.
(Pick: UCLA)

1 UNC vs. 9 Michigan St
Closer than you'll think.
(Pick: UNC)

3 Washington St vs. 6 Vandy
How good did Wazzu look?
(Pick: Wash. St.)

2 Georgetown vs. 7 BC
Old Big East rivals. Where's John Bagley?
(Pick: G'town)

1 Ohio State vs. 9 Xavier
Thad Matta's old school, players
(Pick: Ohio State, but close!)

3 Texas A&M vs. 6 Louisville
Cards ain't playing Cardinal anymore
(Pick: A&M)

Wait: There's other stuff to talk about in sports?

NBA fines Phil Jax $50K for "witch hunt" comment. Pocket change.

MLB: Sammy Sosa will be on the Rangers' 40-man roster. Victory!

NFL: Tank Johnson gets 4-months in prison. Cellblock D's Intramural Football Team – reigning Oz champs! – gets a boost!

Obit: Bowie Kuhn, former MLB commish, dies. His biggest legacy will likely be the start of free agency, which happened on his watch.

Finally: If you read one non-Tournament-related thing today, make it this amazing post from WithLeather's Matt Ufford about a night out with John Amaechi.

-- D.S.

YYYYYEEEEESSSSS!!! DUKE LOSES TO VCU!

Have you EVER been more happy about a first-round NCAA Tournament result??!?!?

I haven't.

(And I called it.)

But that is SO much less important than Duke losing. And it was SOOOOO sweet. VCU was incredible. Who else just KNEW this was one of "those" games that Duke ALWAYS wins.

NOT TONIGHT!!!

I'm flipping out. I'm giddy.

(And how sweet -- HOW SWEET -- is it that on a day of games where EVERY favorite won, Duke lost. Just the icing on the top.)

HAHAHAHAHAHA!

NCAA Tournament Day 1 Live-Blog RECAP

Late-afternoon games.

Early-afternoon games.

Tons of fun to do. Didn't hurt I went 8-0. But picking all favorites (which was the way to 8-0 today) isn't a good long-term strategy.

Tonight: Looking for upsets and/or wild finishes. Any. Please.

UPDATE: Damn you, Duke. Damn you. (If you're wondering why I'm cursing them, my "bold" pick of the bracket was VCU over Duke en route to the Sweet 16. Crap.)

Thursday 03/15 Quickie:Tournament, Day 1. 'Nuff Said.

It's Day 1 of the NCAA Tournament! It is, arguably (or, actually, no argument) the greatest day of the sports year.

Starting at around noon ET, you can find me over at Deadspin, where I'll be all afternoon, live-blogging all of the day's games. Should be a ton of fun, so be sure to drop by and check it out.

(For a taste from the way-back machine, check out my ESPN.com live-blog of Tourney Day 1 from 2003.)

Quick relevant reminiscence: 10 years ago this week (cripes: 10 years?), I was the college basketball editor at ESPN.com. And today was IT: Probably my finest moment on the job.

I knew that ESPN.com would be the key source for millions of fans across the country stuck at work during the first round's afternoon games. (Remember obsessively hitting "refresh" on the ESPN.com scoreboard pages to track games?)

I decided that the key to my coverage strategy would be to update the front-page lead "top story" blurb as often as humanly possible. (Consider this was more than a half-decade before the word "live-blog" was even conceived.)

My recollection is that I averaged a fresh top-story blurb every 8-10 minutes, reflecting the latest momentum moves and storyline shifts. (Somewhere buried in my file cabinet, I have every single one of those blurbs printed out.)

An hyper-enthusiastic 24-year-old, I thought that my efforts appropriately matched the spirit and intensity of the day for fans. (That day, as I believe it has every year since on the first day of the NCAA Tournament, the site set its new one-day traffic record.)

You would have never known it was me behind the scenes, managing the coverage and obsessively flipping those top stories over (and over... and over...), but I was there, having the time of my life.

Including the greatest ESPN.com front page headline never to see the light of day: When 15-seed Coppin State beat 2-seed South Carolina, the concept on the table was:

Coppin a Feel:
Cocks Go Limp

Without hyperbole:
Greatest. Headline. Ever.

Shout-outs to current ESPN.com college basketball editor Andy Glockner, who will be running the show today, and to friends like Executive Editor Kevin Jackson and Page 2 editor David Schoenfield, both my beat-editing colleagues at the time, who were in on the all-hands-on-deck coverage team then -- as they probably are now. Fans remain in phenomenal hands.

Meanwhile, 10 years later, I am reviving that new-comment-every-few-minutes role – not on ESPN.com, but on the leading sports blog.

That 24-year-old Dan -- a limitless ESPN.com career ahead of him -- could never have possibly imagined how things would work out over the following 10 years. (Indeed: I'm sure he would have yelped, "34? What could THAT fogey know?" Ahh, arrogance of youth...)

But I think that Dan would have been excited to know that the first afternoon of the NCAA Tournament remains his most thrilling moment of the sports year. (Sorry for the 3rd-person reference.)

So I have no other editorial message today besides this: Enjoy it.

LAST CHANCE! Sign up NOW for the "Daily Quickie Readers" group of ESPN.com's Tournament Challenge. Come on: You KNOW you have an entry or two left!

By the way, I don't know if this stat is accurate, but DS.com commenter GuyInTheCorner claims that there are only three ESPN.com Tournament Challenge groups that have more than 1,000 entrants: Mike and Mike's, Deadspin's and "Daily Quickie Readers." For that, I heartily and sincerely thank you.

(As impressive as last year's largest-in-the-country 10,000-person pool group was, this year's total 1,300 – and counting! – is arguably more impressive, because I don't have my ESPN.com platform to drive entries, just this blog. So THANK YOU!)

Meanwhile, just in time for today's Tournament tip-off, Deadspin wrapped up its team-by-team coverage with my preview of Florida. Here it is, in all its biased glory – the biggest symbol yet of my Gators fan-ness!

Previewing Today's Afternoon Games:

4 Maryland over 13 Davidson:
Inconsistent Terps should worry you.

7 BC over 10 Texas Tech
I can't buy BK in the Tourney.

6 L'ville over 11 Stanford
Like Clerks, Cardinal shouldn't even be here today.

3 Washington St over 14 Oral Roberts
Remember when I picked 16 ORU over 1 Memphis last year? Was I a year early on the Oral upset pick?

5 Butler over 12 ODU
Complete toss-up.

2 G'town over 15 Belmont
How strong will trendy Hoyas look?

3 Texas A&M over 14 Penn
A nation of bandwagoneers holds it breath.

6 Vandy over 11 G. Washington
The annual 5 p.m. ET game no one ever sees!

More Sports News:

Syracuse wins NIT opener. Motivated much?

NBA: Mavs-Suns. I had a very hard time getting too fired up for Mavs-Suns last night. Not just because the NCAA Tournament starts today, but because in the grand scheme of things, a regular-season NBA game – no matter who is playing in it – is meaningless. It's even MORE meaningless between top contenders. Does last night's result provide any indication of what will happen in the postseason if/when they meet again? No. Oh, and the Spurs are winning the West. So, really, when does Maryland-Davidson start? Give me one-game, win-or-bust playoff formats any day.

However, all that said: The Suns winning in Dallas in a thriller WAS kind of awesome.

NBA Whining: Phil Jackson says Kobe Bryant is the subject of a "witch hunt" by the NBA? Oh for crying out loud... literally.

NFL: No. 21 in this newly redesigned jersey will be a Top 3 seller among NFL fans.

MLB: Gary Matthews denies taking HGH. Well, of COURSE he does. And short of anyone with proof he took it, it's all speculation, at best.

Meanwhile, the Albany DA will provide the names of all athletes involved in the recent PED bust to MLB. Intriguing! How fast before THOSE are leaked? Meanwhile, the NFL says they don't want to know. (Kidding: But, really, you know I'm not...)

Reptiles at spring training: I have heard that the movie sequel will be called "Snakes in a Press Box." The YouTube parody video writes itself.

But, seriously, are you paying attention to anything else in sports besides the Tournament? No. So here we go!

-- D.S.

The "National Bracket": An AnalysisOf The Wisdom of the Fan Crowd

Click here (or scroll down) for today's Quickie ("Defining Choices")

And be sure to check out my fun pre-Tourney conversation with Peter Bean from Burnt Orange Nation: Part 1 is here and Part 2 is here. Cross-blog mash-up!

On to a very intriguing post:

The National Bracket: It's one of my NCAA Tournament obsessions. As a "Wisdom of Crowds" tool, this aggregate look at the combined picks of every fan entering ESPN.com's Tournament Challenge is a phenomenal peek into the collective wisdom of the fans.

Two years ago, I made a big deal out of this: If you used the National Bracket to make your own picks, you would have outperformed 90 percent (90 PERCENT!) of all individual brackets.

Now, you might not would have won your office pool (which will always go to the statistical outlier), but you would have finished VERY respectably. This, using the collective wisdom of fans everywhere.

So what does an analysis of THIS year's National Bracket reveal?

Of course, the vast majority of decisions are heavily for the seed favorite. This year, there are even a handful of outright upsets called by the majority:

Round 1:
10 Gonzaga over 7 Indiana (56-44)
Round 2:
5 Tennessee over 4 UVA (52-48)

In Round 1, there is one intriguing virtual tie:
10 Georgia Tech (50.1) vs. 7 UNLV (49.9)

And in the Sweet 16, there is one virtual tie:
3 Texas A&M over 2 Memphis (50.2-49.8)

But usually, the "wisdom" is more subtle: Merely a NOTABLE percentage of fans see something in an underdog -- matchups that are close enough to flag as a significant portion of the "crowd" spotting a potential upset. (For the purposes of my analysis, if the underdog is within 30 percentage points of the favorite, it's worth noting.) Ones to watch:

Round 1 Teams within 30% range:
Old Dominion (36.5) vs. Butler (63.5)
Winthrop (45.3) vs. Notre Dame (54.7)
G. Washington (38.0) vs. Vandy (62.0)
Texas Tech (47.1) vs. Boston College (52.9)

Notably outside the +/- 30% range:
Creighton (32.7) vs. Nevada (67.3)
VCU (24.4) vs. Duke (75.6)
Arkansas (33.9) vs. USC (66.1)
Illinois (32.4) vs. VA Tech (67.6)
Long Beach (21.2) vs. Tennessee (78.8)

Sweet 16: Now THIS is fascinating. Of the 8 Sweet 16 games, besides the 50/50 Memphis-Texas A&M game, only ONE has the underdog within even 20 percentage points of the favorite: Texas (40.6) vs. UNC (59.4). Do the fans know something the experts don't?

The theme continues in the Elite Eight: Of the four games, Ohio State is a massive 55 percentage point favorite over Texas A&M. Florida is a similar 55-point favorite over Wisconsin. Kansas is an 18.4-point favorite over UCLA. And...

...UNC is less than THREE percentage points ahead of Georgetown, 51.3 vs. 48.7. This indicates, as opposed to the other regional finals, that UNC-G'town is a virtual dead-even match in terms of popular perception. The crowd speaks: Watch those Hoyas.

In the Final Four, Florida is nearly a 24 percentage point favorite over Kansas; Ohio State is 22 percentage point favorite over UNC.

The final is predictably tight: Ohio State is the popular pick, which I respect as the choice of the "crowd," but by less than 7 percentage points over Florida. I think that makes this result a virtual toss-up.

As it should be.

As a P.S., it will be interesting to see if that vote total -- or any along the way -- change in the final 24 hours before the brackets lock and the games begin.

-- D.S.

PS: On the opposite end of the "wisdom of crowds," FanIQ has the breakdown of all of the various "expert" picks for your comparison. Please keep "expert" in quotes.

Wednesday 03/14 A.M. Quickie:"Defining Choices" of an NCAA Bracket

Today's Extra-Special Highlight: DanShanoff.com-BurntOrangeNation mash-up NCAA Tournament spectacular! Scroll down below this post for the first half of my Tournament-obsessed email exchange with Peter Bean. Then, check back on Burnt Orange Nation early this afternoon for Part 2! (Yeah, it's long, but what else are you doing today besides similarly obsessing about the brackets?)

On to today's Quickie:

It is the Question(s) of the Day:

"How's your Spokane?"
"How's your Sacramento?"
"How's your New Orleans?"
"How's your Buffalo?"
"How's your Lexington?"
"How's your Columbus?"
"How's your Chicago?"
"How's your Winston-Salem?"

With less than a day before the Tournament begins, everything is focused on the brackets. YOUR brackets. Your friends' brackets. The experts' brackets. Maybe even my brackets.

Yesterday, my picks were unveiled to a Wall Street Journal Online audience. (Did you see them? Here's a link.)

My Final Four: Florida over UCLA. Georgetown over Texas A&M. Florida over Georgetown in the title game, in a classic Heart-over-Head pick that will ultimately be my downfall. The foursome is hardly novel: Katz, Wilbon, Thamel, Steinberg and who knows how many others share the same group. If that's not the kiss of death, I don't know what is.

Biggest Risk, Round 1:
VCU over Duke
Winthrop over Notre Dame
Biggest Risk, Round 2:
Georgia Tech over Wisconsin
VCU over Pitt
Creighton over Memphis
Biggest Risk, Sweet 16:
Georgia Tech over Oregon
Southern Illinois over Kansas
Texas over UNC
Biggest Risk, Elite Eight:
Texas A&M over Ohio State
Georgetown over UNC

Other than that, I'm fairly conventional.

So I've put my pool fortunes behind five "Defining Choices":

(1) A VCU team I'm picking mostly because they're opening with Duke and I'm suckered in by the "this year's George Mason" question (when I should be focusing on the oft-cited Quickie foundation of the "regress-to-the-mean" principle).

(2) A Georgia Tech team I'm picking mostly because I had them in the Final Four in my PRESEASON picks.

(3) I've got So. Ill. over Kansas because I believe what I saw from KU last March over what I saw from them last weekend.

(4) I've got Texas over UNC because I've drunk the Durant Kool-Aid.

(5) And I'm behind Georgetown and Texas A&M beating Texas (or UNC) and Ohio State, respectively, because I believe in the power of holding a grudge from how the previous season's Tournament ended.

There you have it: Five defining choices that will make (or, more likely, break) my bracket.

So: What were YOUR bracket's Defining Choices?

DON'T FORGET TO SIGN UP FOR THE "DAILY QUICKIE READERS" GROUP OF THE ESPN.COM TOURNAMENT CHALLENGE! (And don't forget to scroll down for the Shanoff-BurntOrangeNation mash-up, Part 1!)

Play-In Game: Niagara advances! OK, who had the Purple team advancing in their office pool? (Trick question! Your pool didn't COUNT the Play-In Game! But if, like me, you picked Niagara, give yourself a symbolic extra point – and consider it good mojo for the games that "count.")

By the Wednesday before the NCAA Tournament, the rest of the sports world is either temporarily irrelevant or simply ignored. Still...

NBA: Bernie Bickerstaff is headed out as coach of the Bobcats, per Michael Jordan's edict. So: Who will MJ pick to replace him? A few guesses: (1) Billy Donovan, (2) Doug Collins, (3) Larry Brown, (4) Anyone else with UNC ties, (5) Um... Leonard Hamilton?

MLB: Sammy Sosa racks up two more hits. Hilarious. You HAVE to root for him, don't you?

File-it-away Quote of the Day: "I want to 100 percent stay in New York. Period." – A-Rod.

NFL: This Lance Briggs thing – are you with him or would you rather have him STFU? Seems to me that slapping him with the "Franchise" tag is within the Bears' rights, whether he likes it or not. Play the one year, then walk away, if he feels so strongly about it.

DON'T FORGET TO SIGN UP FOR THE "DAILY QUICKIE READERS" GROUP OF THE ESPN.COM TOURNAMENT CHALLENGE!

(And don't forget to scroll down and keep reading for the Shanoff-BurntOrangeNation mash-up, Part 1!)

-- D.S.