CFB Quickie: A Win is a Win. Just Ask USC

A couple of thoughts from the afternoon:

*Monte Kiffin is a very very very good football coach. I would actually argue that he is the best coach -- head or assistant -- in college football, at least as it relates to scheming.

*Florida did not look like the No. 1 team in the country, and I predict they will be penalized for that in the polls on Monday. Still: No one but Lane Kiffin will remember how close it was, as long as Florida keeps winning.

*Lane Kiffin came as close as possible to a moral victory, and UT's final drive (including that FU time-out near the end) felt like running out the clock to "hold on" for a 10-point...loss, which is really a win, if you factor in the insane build-up of expectations.

*USC losing: Another year, another game that USC loses to knock them from the national-title picture that they have no business losing. And they lost looking meager; it's not like it was a shoot out.

*It is worth asking, for all the crap Jim Tressel took last week: What's worse -- losing the biggest games or losing the smallest ones? I would argue that Pete Carroll is a bigger dud than Jim Tressel, because at least Tressel always beats the teams he is supposed to beat.

*What a win for Washington: I would say that is the biggest win for the Dawgs program since they won a half-share of the national title in 1991. Big-time football is back at U-Dub.

*I owe a big apology to Ohio State fans for picking Toledo to upset OSU today. While I think it was a fair stretch -- and not (entirely) fueled by my disdain for tOSU -- I couldn't have been more wrong, and I accept your jeering and mockery. I really will now stop doing things like that. (Did you see me defend Jim Tressel above?)

*Notre Dame, on the other hand...

*Although I think everyone needs to recognize just how insanely brilliant Monte Kiffin was in game-planning for the Gators, I think that Tim Tebow played himself out of the Heisman front-running position today. In fact, if I was picking a front-runner, I personally would take Jahvid Best.

*That was a much-needed win for Oregon. Same for Iowa (enough to make folks forget about the Northern Iowa escape). Same for VA Tech (enough to make folks take the loss to Bama in context -- and, guess what: The Big 12 is down this year).

*That was a bad -- if predictable -- loss for Virginia. (And Maryland: Oof. Yeah, sure, Miami might be really good this year... but what does that mean if the ACC is atrocious? BC? Awful. That league needs Florida State to beat BYU tonight, badly.)

*I'm wiped out by that Florida game. I was at the Swamp, and I've never experienced or exited a game where a win -- a win that never felt in doubt, by the way -- felt so muted. I blame the expectations. Still: A win is a win.

Just ask USC.

-- D.S.

Saturday 09/19 (Gainesville) Quickie

Gainesville -- From what I could gather, wandering around town yesterday, the sense of anticipation here for today's Florida-Tennessee game couldn't be bigger.

It's weird: It's not a "wow, what a big game - I hope we win!" vibe. It's more like "Just how much of a throttling can this be?"

There are two camps: Those who think it will be an absolute rout (my pick is 49-6) and those who don't like all this talk about how it will be an absolute rout. As a practical matter, I am part of the former, but I appreciate the sentiments of the latter (which includes much of my wife's family, so I am careful about how extremely I express my bullishness).

Anyway, it should be a great Saturday. Tons of intriguing games with results far more up-in-the-air than the one at The Swamp. That's another point: Has there ever been more hype for a game in which a team is favored by 28.5 points? That alone is a testament to Lane Kiffin's p.r. strategies -- even if Tennessee is going to get crushed, they are in the national conversation.

I'm going to try to tweet as much as possible from the game or tailgate scene, throwing in a few pictures, if I get any good ones out of my iPhone.

Meanwhile: I snuck my weekly college football picks beneath this post. Scroll down to see them (or just click here). The red- (or scarlet-) letter pick is obviously Toledo over Ohio State.

More on the radar today:
*Boise State wins shootout: Is Fresno State that good, to challenge the Broncos, or is Boise State just overrated? I will continue to presume the former.

*Corp or Barkley? Why is Carroll playing games?

*Twins pull within 3 of Tigers. Hmm...

*Tomlinson not playing Sunday. That's an L for those of you who start LT.

*Think the Yankees are a lock to win the AL pennant? Ichiro feeds doubts.

*Kazmir had been knocking on the door for a while, but the AL playoffs' biggest X-factor got his first win as an Angel.

And happy new year, to all my Jewish folks out there.

-- D.S.

CFB Top 25 Picks: Toledo Is New Houston

This week's picks, coming off last week's pick of Houston over Oklahoma State. (Yes, I will stop talking about that now -- it wasn't all that.) This week's Houston is Toledo, so impressive in destroying Colorado last week -- and the game is in Cleveland. Not the same as Columbus.

Because I will be at the Florida-Tennessee game, my ability to actually flip over to the other 3:30 games (or even the end of the noon games) won't be happening -- just like a blinders-on AP or Coaches poll voter! Relying on you for insights. Anyway, let's get to the picks:

1 Florida over Tennessee -- In attendance
2 Texas over Texas Tech -- GameDay game
3 USC over @Washington -- People picking this as upset are on crack.
4 Alabama over North Texas
5 Penn St over Temple -- Another cupcake for JoePa
5 Ole Miss over SE Louisiana -- Rebels need a decisive W
7 BYU over Florida State -- "Must-crush" game for Cougars
8 Cal over @Minnesota -- Beating Big Ten just not a big deal
9 LSU over LA-Lafayette
Toledo over 11 Ohio State -- UPSET SPECIAL
12 Oklahoma over Tulsa -- If I had any guts, I'd pick Tulsa
13 Virginia Tech over Nebraska -- B/C it's in Blacksburg, but a toss-up
15 TCU over Texas State
16 Oklahoma State over Rice
17 Cincinnati over @Oregon St -- Nice quality win for Bearcats
18 Utah over Oregon -- Must-win for Oregon. Won't get it.
22 Kansas over Duke
Arkansas over 23 Georgia -- Breakthrough game for Petrino
24 UNC over E. Carolina -- Not a lot of faith here.
25 Michigan over E. Michigan -- Forcier Mania, apparently.

I missed Georgia Tech over Miami. I got Boise State.

Other games of note:
Auburn over West Virginia: Winner definitely gets into Top 25.
BC over @Clemson: Win here should get BC into Top 25
Michigan State over Notre Dame: Just because I can resume this.
Southern Miss over UVA: Won't be pretty. Groh axed Sunday?
UAB over @Troy: Joe Webb Watch!
Arizona over @Iowa: Winner emerges 3-0
Mississippi State over @Vandy: Why am I on Mullen b'wagon?
Northwestern over @Syracuse

Friday Quickie: Destination Gainesville

Light posting today. I will be on the road, headed for Gainesville. Keep an eye on my Twitter feed to the right (or via your own Twitter account). Here's a link to my SN page, which should be updated with today's column by 8:30 or so. (Update: Here's the column.)

If you're going to be in Gainesville for the game tomorrow, give a holler. Would love to connect with you at a tailgate or somewhere within the throng. Should be a crazy atmosphere.

Emily Monforto, Steve Monforto and Great Sports Parenting

The Varsity Dad sports parenting moment of the year came on Tuesday night.

As you have undoubtedly seen on YouTube or the Today show or cable news, Phillies fan Steve Monforto caught a foul ball from Jayson Werth. High-fives all around. He gave the ball to his 3-year-old daughter, Emily Monforto... who promptly proceeded to toss the ball back.

Steve Monforto's reaction?

He hugged his daughter. And the look on his face has no trace of disappointment, let alone frustration or anger. Just love. (See the video here.)

Love for his kid. Love that this is EXACTLY what a 3-year-old is supposed to do. Love that Emily's lesson from all those catches in the backyard is: Throw the ball!

It was the perfect reaction. It should be used as the model for all parents out there who want to incorporate sports into their kids lives.

At Varsity Dad, we talk about raising a good sports fan. In this case, you can't teach a better lesson or have a better experience. And I'm quite sure that part of the reason I love this story is because I have a 3-year-old of my own.

But there is a wider thing about parents who want to push their kids into -- and through -- sports. Maybe they are trying to reclaim their own glory (or non-glory). Maybe they earnestly want to earn a college scholarship for the kid. Maybe the kid genuinely likes it.

Either way, the process starts young, and the first lesson -- at age 3 (hell, at age 13) -- is simply to love the game. Love watching it. Love watching it with your dad or mom.

I'll bet there are sports-crazed parents out there who would have at least looked annoyed at their kid. Not a trace of that from Steve Monforto.

Just love of his kid and love of being at the game with her.

It is a lesson that every sports fan -- parent or otherwise -- should embrace.

-- D.S.

PS: All's well that ends well. When the Monfortos were on the Today show this morning, they were presented with personalized Phillies jerseys, along with a ball signed by Jayson Werth. To their credit, the Phillies gave Steve Monforto a replacement ball at the game. Whoever caught the real ball could earn a lot of goodwill by giving it back to Emily Monforto.

(OK, if I can offer one bit of constructive criticism, from the Varsity Dad handbook: Steve, ditch the pink Phillies cap for Emily and give her a classic red Phillies hat. You get one, why not her?)

PPS: All the more remarkable, I think that the Monfortos have single-handedly changed the reputation of Philly sports fans -- or, at the very least, eroded the rep that Philly fans are complete boors. It's the new poster-story for Philly sports fans. Goodbye, booing Santa; hello, Monforto mania!

Thursday 09/17 Quickie: Rex Ryan, Kiffin,Myles Brand, Miami, Tebow, More

I got side-tracked this morning and neglected to post a link to today's SN column. Hopefully you all found it anyway, but if not, I found an interesting contrast:

Rex Ryan vs. Lane Kiffin.

Check the column for a full comparison, but needless to say, when Kiffin yaps, it feels forced -- even desperate. When Ryan yaps, it feels confident.

I'm a big fan of Ryan's, even just a game into his NFL head-coaching career. I think things will get interesting if (or...WHEN) he beats Bill Belichick this weekend.

Kiffin? Not so much.

More you'll find in the column:
*Tebow/Jags draft meme. Go to TimTeblog.com for more.
*Really, seriously, finally: The Rangers are finished.
*200 Ks? No problem if you hit 40+ HRs
*Fan of the Year: Emily Monforto!

Complete column here. More in a bit.

-- D.S.

Previously, On TimTeblog.com...

Previously (uh, yesterday) on TimTeblog.com...

*Jags want to draft Tebow for marketing? Why not?
(Their biggest concern: He'll be gone after Top 10.)

*Tebow as love-child of Vick and Alstott? Sounds right.

*How will guru Monte Kiffin defend Tebow? He can't.

*Expectations game: Tebow/Meyer vs. Kiffin. Kiffin wins?

As always, check back at TimTeblog.com throughout the day for new posts.

Morning Quickie up in little bit...

-- D.S.

Wednesday 09/16 Quickie: Kiffin is a Jedi

It is a testament to Lane Kiffin's Jedi-like skills that not even halfway through the rivalry-week build-up between Tennesee and Florida, he has flipped the meme, enough that I lead today's SN column with it. Here is today's DS.com original post-game "extra" on the topic:

Previously, it was "Wow, just how badly is Florida going to crush Tennessee?"

Now, it's "Wow, just how badly is Florida going to crush Tennessee?"

Let me explain: The former is about everyone's sense of vengeance; the latter is about Kiffin's expert expectations-management.

By talking up the Gators -- "best defense ever"... "best QB ever"... yada yada yada... -- Kiffin implicitly says, "We're going to get drilled."

Ironically, it was the only way he could escape from this weekend in a strategically no-lose situation.

If Urban Meyer plays the harsh card -- using time-outs late to rub it in, piling on the points... say, some 70-0 rout -- he is a petty, vindictive guy. Not exactly the high-minded champion. Kiffin looks like a victim. Kiffin looks...sympathetic. Meyer looks like a bully.

If Tennessee keeps it even remotely close -- and, by that, I mean if they lose by anything less than 45-0 -- they will have beaten the (admittedly very very very low) expectations.

Of COURSE Kiffin isn't going to win on Saturday -- that doesn't mean he can't claim a moral victory, even in crushing defeat.

*****

More you'll find in today's column:
*For one morning, MLB is relevant again.
*USC QB controversy foreshadowed?
*49ers to Crabtree: Checkmate.
*SO glad I have Tomlinson...ugh.
*The Colley Matrix: Pitt is No. 1!

Lots more included. Check it out here. More later.

-- D.S.

Teach a 3-Year-Old To Blog About Sports...

So this morning I was a guest-speaker in my 3-year-old son's daycare class, which is spending the week talking about jobs. Parents were invited to come in to talk about their job.

Hm.

Let's start here: Which job am I describing? Sports columnist? Media-industry consultant? Sports blogger?

As you can imagine, I simplified it for the audience: I am a writer. I write stories. I write stories about sports. ("Can any of you name any sports?")

I really wanted to say: "I specialize in shallow punditry. Can you say 'sha-low pun-dih-tree?'"

But "write stories about sports" was about as complicated as I could make it.

I was looking for a gimmick to present to them. Should I bring my computer and show them how I research and type (and watch YouTube clips and Tweet and check my RSS reader?)

Instead, I had them help me write a story -- they picked the subject (themselves), where it took place (the local park), what they were doing (playing with every type of ball imaginable... they had fun yelling out different names of balls -- given the enthusiasm for soccer balls, MLS has a future yet!)

Finally, I picked one of the kids to provide me with a quote about how she thought the playing went. Frankly, it wasn't too far off from your standard sideline reporter's question for a coach -- or a coach's platitudinous answer. (When a 4-year-old offers a standard sports cliche, it's much cuter than when Bill Belichick does it.)

We put the components together and -- voila -- the class had produced their very own sports story. You might even call it a column. All it was missing was the commenters to say, "Come on! Here's why you're wrong!"

Everyone should have to go through the exercise of trying to simplify what they do for 3- and 4-year-olds.

-- D.S.

Tuesday 09/15 Quickie: Federer, Del Posto,Brady, Pats, Charers, Lincecum, Meyer

With Week 1 of the NFL season in the books, let's just point out that I lost my Eliminator in the very first week -- I knew the Bengals were a risky pick, but the WAY they lost re-affirms my faith in the Quickie Jinx.

Anyway: Normally, there's no way I would lead with tennis over the NFL -- the Pats winning a nail-biter, no less -- but when Roger Federer loses a major final (especially the US Open), it is a shocker.

But let's elevate that news for the purposes of the lead item of today's SN column: Federer is, arguably, the greatest tennis player in history -- still in his prime. Let's compare him to Jordan in '97 (not quite '98, certainly not Wizards era).

Do you want to see Federer win? (As a corollary, onsider the way everyone quickly labeled The Shot as the greatest shot in tennis history.) Or is it way more interesting to see him lose?

The same goes for the Patriots, particularly against the Giants in the Super Bowl: Do you want to see them cap the greatest season in NFL history? Or, more dramatically, lose it?

You could make the same argument about Tebow and Florida this season -- would you like to think you witnessed, first-hand, the greatest college football player ever? Or do you want to see him fail?

It is an age-old question: Are dynasties -- or, taken to their next level, "best-ever" athletes or teams -- good for sports or bad? And, if they are good, is that because their success infinitely and inevitably ratchets up the drama precisely at the moment when they DON'T win?

I don't like dynasties, except to the extent of the above net benefit: Watching them fail is very very very interesting.

(You could make the same case for college football: Isn't it more interesting when USC loses that freaky once-a-season game than having them roll through the season? Or Penn State losing to Iowa last year? Then again, when LSU made -- and won -- the title game with 2 losses, people were like "Meh." And the consensus Greatest Game Ever was between two unbeaten powerhouses -- Texas and USC -- that mostly rolled through the regular season.)

There's no right answer -- it's all personal preference. (And, of course, filled with all sorts of caveats and carve-outs... for example: most of the rest of the country would love to see Florida fail as USC did in '05... me, not so much.)

Anyway, that's what Federer losing -- and that's what the intrigue was: Federer losing, rather than Del Posto winning -- did for me.

Meanwhile:
*Cripes, are the Pats that lucky or the Bills that chokey? (Both!)
*Are the Chargers that mediocre or the Raiders that much better?
*Tim Lincecum reaffirms that he is the NL's best pitcher.
*Urban Meyer WILL use Kiffin's words against him. Absolutely.

Check out the complete column here. More later.

-- D.S.

Teblog Post Today on Yahoo's Dr. Saturday:Why Tebow Will Go Old Testament on Vols

I have officially taken the (respectful, non-blaspehmous) request for Tim Tebow's eye-black this weekend -- as long as Tebow is taking 'em! -- to be Ezekiel 25:17 to the mainstream.

Check out my post from this afternoon at Yahoo's must-read Dr. Saturday college football blog about why Tebow is likely to go Old Testament on Tennessee this weekend. (Hint: Kiffin messed with Meyer. You don't mess with Meyer on Tebow's watch.)

The Zeke 25:17 eye-black would merely be appropriate symbolism to go with the on-field vengeance that is undoubtedly to occur.

This Week's BlogPoll Top 25 Ballot: Houston!

Yes, Houston at No. 2 is almost -- almost -- a protest vote of the AP ranking them behind Oklahoma State. (I really do wonder how many AP voters actually watched that game, rather than the Michigan-Notre Dame game...or whatever game they were covering.)

I think that if you go by what teams have earned on the field after two weeks, Houston at 2 isn't unreasonable -- just as BYU at No. 1 after one week wasn't unreasonable. Nor is keeping USC behind Florida and Texas -- maybe more teams. Or Cincinnati in the Top 10, ahead of Penn State. Or having teams debut and/or drop out fairly violently.

The season goes along, we get more real data points (not preseason conjecture), we can see whether Week 1 wins were "quality" or not (see Miami over FSU, which struggled with Jax St.), we can affirm or reject biases. Anyway, my ballot is here:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama	1
2	Houston
3	Brigham Young	2
4	Florida	1
5	Texas	1
6	Southern Cal	1
7	California	4
8	Cincinnati	5
9	Boise State	5
10	Penn State	2
11	TCU	2
12	Mississippi
13	Georgia Tech	3
14	LSU
15	Nebraska	4
16	Virginia Tech	7
17	Kansas
18	Utah
19	Baylor	3
20	Pittsburgh
21	Michigan
22	Boston College
23	UCLA
24	Miami (Florida)	2
25	Ohio State	10
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Oklahoma State (#3), North Carolina (#20), Notre Dame (#21), Georgia (#24), Oklahoma (#25).

Monday 09/14 Quickie: Peterson, Brees,AP Top 25, Clijsters, Sanchez, Pedro, More

Let's all agree that Adrian Peterson's 68-yard, 2-stiff-arm TD run might be the best run we'll see all year.

Let's also agree that Peterson marginalizing Brett Favre (per today's SN column lead) is wonderful irony -- the gunslinger, neutered. It's almost like Favre is in a personal purgatory.

Let's agree that Drew Brees put on the greatest Week 1 fantasy football display in history -- how many teams could have started Brees as the only player on their roster and still won?

Let's agree that the Falcons are even better than last year (as are the 49ers), the Dolphins are worse (as are the Cardinals) and Jay Cutler's problems are easy to laugh at.

Let's agree that no one -- no one -- calls a dramatic moment in sports better than Gus Johnson, and why he isn't more of a marquee play-by-play guy is a mystery to anyone under 40.

Let's agree that as long as Tom Brady doesn't get knocked out for the season tonight, the Pats are doing just fine.

Let's agree that Roger Federer's Shot -- and that's how it should be referenced: "The Shot" -- is the greatest shot in the history of tennis.

Let's agree that Kim Clijsters' US Open title is going to be -- lamentably -- the most overlooked significant sports moment of the year. It is WAY more impressive than Tom Watson at the B.O.

Let's agree that the notion of an AP voter ranking Oklahoma State ahead of Houston -- simply because they had Oklahoma State over-inflated in the preseason and after Week 1 -- is a joke.

Let's agree that Ohio State isn't as bad as I keep implying they are -- and USC isn't as good as others keep implying they are.

Let's agree that Michael Jordan is not only entitled to say whatever he wants at his own HOF induction ceremony, but that being petty and vindictive is core to what got him there.

Let's agree that, at this point, the Red Sox are just twisting the knife in the backs of the Rays.

Let's agree that sports feels different after this weekend: The NFL is officially back, with some awesome performances and intriguing results; college football is already in midseason intensity (with much much more to come next Saturday); and it's a glorious thing.

Complete SN column here. More later.

-- D.S.

Preliminary BlogPoll Ballot Thinking

Here's my preliminary BlogPoll ballot thinking, and it is informed both by a second week of information and by a transitive property based on how their opening-week opponents did:

1. Alabama
Win over VT looks better this week.
2. Houston
This week's BYU -- best win of the CFB season so far.
3. BYU
Affirmed last week's win as no fluke, esp. on D.
4. Florida
Steamroller...but Troy was hardly comp.
5. Texas
Shaky early, then pulled away.

6. USC
(Mostly) handled by a team that barely put away Navy.
7. Cal
Steeling themselves for chance vs. USC.
8. Cincinnati
Most underrated team in the country. 70!
9. Boise St
Like BYU, another "affirmation" result.
10. Penn St
Great D. The comp has, thus far, been iffy.

11. TCU
Beat UVA only slightly better than W&M did.
12. Ole Miss
Bye week. Eh...waiting to see reality match hype.
13. GA Tech
Barely put away Clemson, but a good win.
14. LSU
Win over 1-1(!) Washington looks better now.
15. Nebraska
Crappy comp. But after UT, Big 12 seems wide open.

16. VA Tech
Bama was that good.
17. Kansas
Like Nebraska, seeing an opening in B12?
18. Utah
Tempted to put them lower -- not impressed yet.
19. Baylor
Off, but last week's win looks better this week.
20. Pitt
Too high, but two impressive wins (D-first).

21. Michigan
Debut! ND ain't great, but it was a great win.
22. B.C.
Debut! As usual, quietly plugging away at Ws.
23. UCLA
Debut! Too high, but win at Tennessee is solid.
24. Miami
Nearly dropped 'em after FSU turned out to, y'know, suck.
25. Ohio St
Should leave them out. Two uninspiring performances.

I dropped out UNC, after they lucked into a win at UConn. And an ugly win, at that.

Coming off my Houston-over-Oklahoma State pick, I will call it now: Toledo over Ohio State in Cleveland next week.

Is it me, or is Ohio State just really not that good? The D seems solid -- except when getting run over by Navy's option attack... or Joe McKnight. But the offense is pedestrian. And if OSU isn't that good, then USC's eked win over them doesn't really speak that highly of the Trojans this season, either. But watch the AP voters give USC all sorts of credit for "gutting it out," rather than "not playing all that well against a good-but-not-great team."

(I'm with everyone else: Terrelle Pryor is absolutely wasted talent under Jim Tressel. "Turning platinum into pennies," Spencer Hall called it. I wonder if Pryor is regretting his decision to go to Ohio State. I would be.)

Thoughts?

-- D.S.

Sunday 09/13 (Very) Quickie

There is no such thing as a moral victory for Ohio State -- "keeping it close" with USC, but ultimately getting the game's result driven down their throats on USC's final series.

However, I'm not quite sure it validated USC as an elite team, either. It was a big win, sure, but it's not like USC throttled OSU in a way that we all anticipated.

Serena Williams' freak-out: Now THAT's some quality spontaneous hostility! "Shove this ball down your [effing] throat?" In range of live microphones? How awesome was that?

More CFB: What we learned.
*Too little, too late for Oklahoma. Sorry.
*Houston! Top 10! (More BlogPoll later today.)
*I'll replace Notre Dame at my Top 25 fringe with Michigan.
*Note that "70" that Cincy hung? They're underrated.
*Other affirmation wins for BYU and Boise St.
*Tennessee is going to get worked over next week.

NFL Today! Picks: Colts, Saints, Cowboys, Eagles, Ravens, Texans, Falcons, Bengals*, Vikings, Giants, Cards, Seahawks, Packers, Pats, Chargers. (*"Eliminator" pool pick)

-- D.S.

College Football Gameday Live-Comment

8:06: Getting ready for Ohio St-USC, a few quick thoughts on the afternoon:

*What a win for Houston! And I'm not just saying that because I used a second chance yesterday to pick the win -- my best prediction in I-can't-remember-how-long. What I'm intrigued by is this: If AP voters thought enough of Oklahoma State's win at home over iffy Georgia to rank them No. 5, shouldn't they boost Houston for beating Oklahoma State at their place? I'll be putting Houston in the Top 10 of my BlogPoll ballot.

*I'm no fan of either Notre Dame or Michigan, but that was a fun game and a huge win for RichRod for building his program in Ann Arbor. I'm not sure it was a particularly strong indicator of success THIS season -- Notre Dame isn't exactly a great defense, and Michigan didn't particularly stop ND's offense -- but it's one of those things he can use in recruiting; years from now, when Michigan is a perennial Top 20 team, we will look back on this win as a big foundation for it.

*Tennessee is going to get shellacked next week at the Swamp. If they can't take care of UCLA in their own house, how will they deal with a very motivated Florida on the road?

*Convincing follow-up win for BYU. Not quite beating Oklahoma, but it showed no sign of let-down (unlike that OTHER team in Oklahoma).

3:58: Houston up early at Oklahoma State. Remember my flip-flop upset special yesterday -- I like Houston here... at least give them a puncher's chance in a game OK St SHOULD win.

3:28: What a win for Central Michigan at Michigan State. And what rough day for the Big Ten -- and it could get worse. Fresno State took Wisconsin to OT in Madison before UW pulled it out. Penn State didn't exactly blow out Syracuse. Northwestern needed a last-second FG to beat Eastern Michigan. Indiana barely beat Western Michigan. At least Iowa redeemed itself after last week's near-miss vs. Northern Iowa by thumping Iowa State. Michigan kicks off against Notre Dame in a minute, and ND should be favored. And, of course, Ohio State hosting USC tonight.

3:20: Well, after a bit of a too-tense 1st quarter, Florida blew it open on Troy. Tim Tebow accounted for 5 TDs and 300+ yards -- reminiscent of the 2nd game of his 2007 season, when he lit up Troy for roughly the same.

For the 2nd straight game, the Gators' most impressive group was the defense. Final judgment: They may be the No. 1 team in the country, but I'm not sure they played like it this week. We'll have to see how all the other top contenders play, obviously. (I mean: Penn State only beating Syracuse 28-7 wasn't all that impressive. And UNC nearly lost at UConn, which I nearly predicted as an upset... but didn't.)

I will say that the Gators look ready for Tennessee next weekend. I'll be at the Swamp for that, giddily.

Today's Viewing Schedule:
Early afternoon: Troy at Florida (PPV)
Late afternoon: ND at Michigan
And: UCLA at Tennessee
And: Houston at Oklahoma St. (Upset Special!)
Evening: USC at Ohio State

10:10 a.m.: Just put on College GameDay -- I love how they are giving Ohio State a chance, when all evidence the past few years points to another disappointing loss.

One commenter yesterday said I better be prepared to say I'm sorry when Ohio State wins -- I'll make the same offer I made to Notre Dame fans last week: If I'm wrong, no more unprovoked dissing Ohio State this season until they do something to earn it. (But if OSU loses, all bets are off.)

Heading out to a birthday party for a 3-year-old friend of my kid's. He is wearing one of his Gator T-shirts and blue-and-orange Nike Florida pants. My 10-month-old is wearing a "Great to Be a Gator" T-shirt. Mrs. Quickie is wearing a blue "Gators" T-shirt. I will put on a Tebow jersey -- but probably after we get home at noon for the game. Not quite sure it's appropriate to wear that (or any jersey) out of the house, let alone to a kid's birthday party. I only have 25 Florida T-shirts to choose from. But, yes: We walk out of the house and look like "that" family. The funny part is the way we walk around the neighborhood on fall Saturdays -- most people look at us like we're freaks; the college football fans all nod their head and say hello. They understand.

More once the noon games start.

-- D.S.

Saturday 09/12 (Gameday) Quickie

I may have finally gotten my prediction mojo back. After last week's ND-Michigan double-debacle of bad picks, I took underrated Toledo over "name-brand" Colorado. Now, maybe everyone took Toledo over Colorado -- especially with the game in Toledo -- but the only question is now whether Toledo is going to shock Ohio State in Cleveland next week, with tOSU coming off tonight's huge game against USC. (I'll say it: Yes, Toledo will stun the Buckeyes. Of course, it could just be that Colorado is terrible.)

I'll have an open post all day long, tracking the games, with Twitter updates running on the side.

Jordan elected to Hoops hall: In case you didn't see it yesterday, here was my analysis yesterday of the similarities between basketball's GOAT and college football's potential GOAT. I liked how Jordan got a little choked up at the beginning, and I loved how he went through the litany of folks who gave him motivation.

(Yahoo's Woj had a different -- and smart -- take: Jordan was being petty. It does beg the question: Did Woj not watch Jordan throughout his career? The whole thing was about petty score-settling.)

BTW: "Yvette Prieto" is blowing up Google Trends -- that's Michael Jordan's girlfriend, a former Cuban model (of course she is).

The case against Shawne Merriman was dismissed: How many talking-heads and writers and bloggers made hay off this story? How many will say: Oops, we were wrong?

MLB: Jeter passes Gehrig for career Yankee hits. It's a testament to the franchise that Jeter doesn't even crack the Top 3 Yankees in history... Unsurprisingly, the Phillies beat the Mets (no matter who's working out of the bullpen)... Jair Jurrgens... If it wasn't closed a few weeks ago, I think the Dodgers shut the door on the Giants' playoff hopes (the Rockies win again)... Angels win 4th straight -- are the Yankees or Dodgers the team to beat in the AL?

More coming later today -- it's college football gameday.

-- D.S.

CFB Top 25 Picks: Ohio State Fail Edition

I never linked to this week's final BlogPoll -- not my ballot, but the combined national ballot of all BlogPoll voters. I am stunned I was the only one to rank BYU at No. 1.

I also remain casually miffed that my old Northwestern classmate Doug Lesmerises, an AP voter out of Cleveland, has gotten all sorts of props for voting Bama, BYU and OK St 1-2-3 ahead of Florida. I voted BYU-Bama-OK St AND Boise St ahead of Florida (my freaking team!) and got...bupkis.

(Why has no one pointed out that Lesmerises doesn't even follow his own so-called logic consistently -- why rank Bama, BYU and OK St ahead of Florida but not Boise State?)

Now, onto this week's picks...

Another early-season week, another week of cupcake match-ups (for the most part) that makes the rule of picking Top 25 games be "chalk." Obviously, USC-Ohio State is the headliner -- unless you've been paying attention to OSU in big games the last few years and recognize that they are going to lose... even to an overrated USC team. Let's get to it:

1 Florida over Troy
2 Texas over @Wyoming
3 USC over @8 Ohio St -- Yeah, yeah, GOTW. Remember last year? It was GOTW then, too.
4 Alabama over Fla Int'l
5 Oklahoma St over Houston (If I had guts, I'd pick UH)
UPDATED (see below): Houston over @5 Oklahoma St (UPSET SPECIAL)
7 Penn St over Syracuse/Paulus
9 BYU over @Tulane
10 Cal over E. Washington
11 LSU over Vandy
12 Boise St over Miami (OH)
13 Oklahoma over Idaho St
14 VA Tech over Marshall
16 TCU over @Virginia
17 Utah over San Jose St.
18 Notre Dame over @Michigan -- Schadenfreude Bowl
19 UNC over @UConn (Why am I not picking this as an upset?)
21 Georgia over South Carolina (only b/c it's in Athens)
22 Nebraska over Arkansas St
23 Cincy over SE Mo St.
24 Kansas over @UTEP
25 Mizzou over Bowling Green

So, yes: In the Schadenfreude Bowl, I will take Notre Dame over Michigan -- after picking both to lose last week and being relatively humiliated in the process. I would say that ND humiliated me more, leading to my "No Knocking ND (Until They Earn It On the Field)" policy. The winner of this game gets the misleading "They're Back!" meme; the loser gets the misleading "They're Doomed!" meme.

Why does this Houston-OK St game intrigue me as an upset-waiting-to-happen? Seems to have a lot of elements that smell like a trap: OK St is coming off a very big season-opening win over Georgia... And that they have that Top 5 ranking... And that, suddenly, they are the best team in the state, finally eclipsing Oklahoma... And that Houston has a freaky pass-happy offense, not unlike the Texas Tech offense that pinned 56 on OK State a year ago? What's the downside to me actually picking Houston over Oklahoma State? I mean, cripes: I picked Nevada over ND and Western Michigan over Michigan, couldn't have been more wrong about either and the world didn't end. OK, I've talked myself into it...

Other Games of Note:
*Tennessee over UCLA
*Mississippi St over @Auburn
*Toledo over Colorado
*Wisconsin over Fresno St
*Northwestern over E. Michigan
*If nothing else, track UAB's Joe Webb vs. SMU. Webb Mania!

Any big predictions on your end? Put them in the comments. And it's not too late to join the Daily Quickie Readers group of the College Pick 'Em! Join now! (For god's sake: I'm in 5th place. You KNOW you can do better than me.)

-- D.S.

Friday 09/11 Quickie: NFL Week 1, SteelersUSC-Ohio St, Michael Jordan, Marlins, More

An aside: I was in Boston for business school on 9/11. Every year on this anniversary, I find it very difficult to express myself with any sense of the appropriate gravitas. This was my attempt back then. Back to regularly scheduled programming...

*Hoops Hall induction: Is Michael Jordan the greatest basketball player of all time? Is he the greatest player of all time, in any sport? Today's SN column leads with my favorite personal memory of MJ -- naturally, from his erstwhile Wizards years. (here's the appropriate YouTube clip.)

*NFL Opener: I can't get too excited either way about the Steelers winning or the Titans losing -- unlike college football, either of them could lose, say, another 4-5 games and still make the playoffs. So what's this one win/loss?

No, what does irk me is -- as ever -- the NFL's overtime rules, which obliterate the notion of two teams earning it on the field through competition, in favor of the luck of a coin flip. I'm not quite sure why this isn't a bigger deal. Some day, it'll impact a Super Bowl -- by then it will be too late.

(NFL Week 1 picks -- aside from Pittsburgh over Tennessee, which I had yesterday -- coming later today.)

*CFB Weekend: Anyone who has watched Ohio State in big games over the last three years knows that this USC-OSU game is hardly worth the hype. Have folks forgotten last year? Yes, Pryor is finally in charge and yes, USC isn't nearly as good as their ranking, and yes the game is in Columbus -- that will make Ohio State's failure all the more acute. (Sorry, forgot to add: Yet again.)

(CFB Picks coming later today, too. Yes, I'm picking Notre Dame. I surprise myself sometimes.)

*Is it me, or did baseball suddenly evaporate, in the presence of the return of football? (And, for most, the end of their fantasy baseball seasons.) Part of it is that the playoff spots seem pretty secure -- sure, the Rangers might pass the Red Sox... but does anyone really think that will happen? The Rockies seem to have the NL Wild Card in hand -- although it's a shame to see the Marlins (with that MLB-lowest $36M payroll) right in the mix.

There's a lot more in today's SN column. In the meantime, drop by later today for NFL and CFB weekend picks. And don't forget to check out TimTeblog.com, where I continue to wring more out of one specific topic than anyone in the country.

-- D.S.

Thursday 09/10 Quickie: NFL Opener,SB Pick, Georgia Tech, AI, USMNT, Oudin

So, not entirely unexpectedly, in today's SN column, I am picking the Pats to win the Super Bowl. I have done this almost every year since 2001, mainly as a defense mechanism.

If they do win, I have prepared myself. (And, to be reasonable, in any given year, I'll bet on Belichick.) If they don't win, I am as thrilled to be wrong as I am about anything.

Cynical? Kind of. Reasonable? Mostly.

I am unimpressed by the rest of the AFC: Steelers? That karmic bank is nearly empty. Chargers? Yeah: Norv Turner, sure. Titans? Nope. Colts? I don't even think they'll make the playoffs. One of these nouveau picks like Houston or Jacksonville? Not beating NE in the playoffs.

The bigger intrigue is in the NFC. Most folks are picking the Giants. You could make a pretty good case for the Falcons. I'm not quite sure why anyone thinks Dallas will be a contender. I foreshadowed this when Vick came back, but I'm picking the Eagles.

Yes, I know I picked the Eagles to win the NFC last year -- at least when the playoffs started. And they should have! This year, I really do believe that Mike Vick will be the X-factor -- if only for the dramatic value.

So it's Patriots over Eagles in the Super Bowl. As for the rest of the league, I am most focused on the various incarnations of the Wildcat (or single-wing) that pop up as the strategy moves from Miami novelty to league-wide tool. This is not some fad; I think that this is nothing less than the realignment of NFL offense -- that is, if coaches are innovative enough to use it. (That's a big "if," one that I have no confidence in, actually.)

I've got more shallow thoughts in today's SN column leading with my NFL preview (or "preview"), but there's a lot more in there, too:

*Picking the Steelers over the Titans.
BE SURE TO SIGN UP FOR THE PIGSKIN PICK 'EM GROUP! (DAILY QUICKIE READERS)
*Keep an eye on Georgia Tech tonight.
*AI to Memphis: He makes them must-see.
*Oudin ousted: Let the endorsements begin!
*Derek Jeter: Luckiest man... oh, wait.
*Gabe Feldman! Adam Wainwright!

There's a ton more. See the whole column here. More later.

-- D.S.

Tim Tebow on Running a Meth Lab

It takes a funny guy like Kenny Mayne to bring out the funny guy in Tim Tebow. There's an interview between them in this week's ESPN Mag, with one section I wanted to highlight:

Kenny Mayne: The lack of privacy your generation faces is unbelievable. Does it ever get unbearable?

Tim Tebow: There are pros and cons. You have a great platform to influence people. But sometimes you’d like to go to dinner or play golf without having people waiting when you get off the course. I just look at it as a pro and realize I have an opportunity and a responsibility to be a good role model for kids and give them someone to look up to. That’s my goal.

KM: So what you’re saying is you can’t run a methamphetamine lab?

TT: That phase was more during my freshman year of high school. I got out of it by junior year.

KM: What’s your opinion on homeschooling, since you went that route?

TT: The methamphetamine route?

KM: Wow. I had no idea you’d be so liberal.

"That phase was more during my freshman year of high school. I got out of it by junior year." That's some very strong deadpan humor, about what a lot of people would find a dicey topic.

I have a longer post about it at TimTeblog, and the Palm Beach Post's Ben Volin has more excerpts. I try very hard not to talk too much Tebow here, given that I have an entire separate blog dedicated to the subject, but this struck me as amusing enough to post here.

-- D.S.

Wednesday 09/09 (/09!) Quickie: NFL Best,AP Top 25, MLB Wild Cards, Vick vs. Obama

I'm all for rankings. And I'm not even that put off by SN's "expert" list of the Top 100 players in the NFL being led by Peyton Manning.

Out of curiosity (and to lead today's SN column), I compared that list to the Top 100 of the "Average Draft Position" of the aggregation of fantasy drafts out there.

It was startling to see that Maurice Jones-Drew -- who ranks No. 2 on the ADP list -- doesn't even make the experts' Top 100. Matt Forte -- a consensus Top 5 fantasy talent -- isn't there, either.

Now, I know it's apples and oranges -- and the expert list isn't exactly the most quantitatively rigorous bunch -- but that kind of gap DOES seem a little out of whack.

Someone is wrong, and I suspect it is not the collective wisdom of the hundreds of thousands of fans who pay pretty close attention to this -- and bet their NFL cred on it.

Meanwhile:

*My aggravation with the AP Top 25 can be summed up in a pretty simple analysis: Why does Alabama beating now-No. 14 VA Tech on a neutral field put Bama at No. 4, but BYU beating now-No. 13 Oklahoma on a neutral (to hostile) field put BYU at No. 9?

Should BYU be No. 1? Maybe -- I put them there this week, likely to be KO'ed next week, but there this week nevertheless.

Should Florida be No. 1? Why: Because they were preseason No. 1 and inertia rules? They crushed Charleston Southern; they are -- in all likelihood -- the best team in the country. But they did nothing last Saturday to prove that... at least not in the same way a team like BYU or Alabama or Oklahoma State did.

*Lost in the focus on the Rangers trying valiantly to outrace the Red Sox to the AL Wild Card -- which would be staggering, if they pulled it off -- can we at least take a second to lament the end of the Rays' run as contenders this year? Their success is so good for baseball -- sorry to see it end. The good news is that they will be back in it next year -- and that the Rays have a new culture where not making the playoffs is a disappointment.

*Michael Vick is no Barack Obama, when it comes to talking with students. Although they both talked about the same subject, roughly: Personal resposibility.

Hey: The NFL season starts tomorrow. Get ready.

Complete SN column here. More later.

-- D.S.

This Week's BlogPoll Top 25 Ballot: BYU!

The BlogPoll ballot after the first week of the season is usually the wildest -- I like to lean heavily on what happened on the field, with weighting for teams that beat other good teams, that looked sloppy beating other good teams and generally just reward tough early-season scheduling:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Brigham Young	16
2	Alabama	5
3	Oklahoma State	8
4	Boise State	6
5	Florida	4
6	Texas	4
7	Southern Cal	2
8	Penn State	5
9	TCU	6
10	Georgia Tech	2
11	California	3
12	Mississippi	6
13	Cincinnati	11
14	LSU	5
15	Ohio State	2
16	Baylor
17	Kansas	1
18	Utah
19	Nebraska
20	North Carolina
21	Notre Dame
22	Miami (Florida)
23	Virginia Tech	2
24	Georgia	5
25	Oklahoma	21
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Oregon (#12), Iowa (#20), Oregon State (#22), Florida State (#23), Central Michigan (#25).

Do I think BYU is better than Florida or Texas? No. But after one week, BYU is the team with the impressive win at Oklahoma on their resume, while Florida and Texas (and USC and Penn State and so many others) chomped on cupcakes. Please improve this ranking by leaving your comments below, and based on your good arguments, I will shuffle as necessary.

UPDATE: You may mock the internal inconsistencies of my logic, but please recognize I see them. It feels like after BYU, Alabama and OK State, I went back to the Biggies -- did Florida's win really reveal that they are the best team in the country? (Well, a little, but not enough.)

Why do Texas, USC and Penn State make the cut but others don't? Why does TCU move up despite being idle? (It has a little to do with BYU's tide lifting all MWC boats, I think.)

Why did I lift Cincy so high? Because I think they destroyed what many considered to be a good Rutgers team, and I think Cincy has been slept on because everyone hates the Big East, forgetting that Brian Kelly is one of the Top 5 coaches in the country.

It feels like after the Top 10 or 11, I had to start overlooking Game 1 flaws (Ole Miss, LSU, Ohio State, -- or I wanted to give some love to teams that earned their way into my ranking (like Baylor and, yes, Notre Dame).

And I'm not quite sure why I have three 0-1 teams at the bottom, except that they were bold enough to schedule really good season-opening games and none were throttled. All three are Top 25-quality teams, and if they had played the requisite 1-AA cupcakes, they would all have found themselves roughly in their preseason slots, despite the new evidence -- unearthed in their real games -- that they aren't as good as their preseason ranking, that we probably wouldn't have seen for a few weeks, but is most certainly there.

Again, each week, this list gets more and more refined. But I was thrilled to finally have something besides last season's biases and offseason "paper" qualities to base a ranking on.

-- D.S.

UPDATE: Great column by my old Northwestern classmate Doug Lesmerises about why he ranked Bama, BYU and OK St ahead of Florida -- hey, just like me.

Tuesday 09/08 Quickie: Bradford, Stafford,Oudin, BYU, Rays, Rockies, Pryor, More

My BlogPoll ballot will be up around 10, so check back to see how I handled the whole "BYU thing."

I was inspired enough by it to lead today's SN column with a bit of Bizarro reality: Imagine the universe where Sam Bradford has just been named the Lions' starting QB, rather than Bradford's season suddenly imploding -- no national-title shot, no Heisman repeat, new injury to worry about.

I'm not saying that Bradford made the wrong decision to come back to school -- I'm just wondering what it is like to live in a world (no "Bizarro" about it) where the Sooners are as winless as the Lions, and Detroit's QB situation is one that Oklahoma can only wish for.

More you'll find in today's column:
*BYU is No. 1 -- little BlogPoll preview.
*The Rays are finished. What a bummer.
*The U is back, thanks to Jacory Harris.
*Love the Redskins' gamesmanship with the Giants.
*Oudin has saved the US Open -- can it last?
*Did Jim Tressel approve Terrelle Pryor's "Mike Vick" eye-black?

Complete column here. BlogPoll up shortly. More posts later.

-- D.S.

Sunday 09/06 (CFB Openers!) Quickie

...Aaand there's your season, for Oklahoma fans. At least in terms of any hope of getting back to the national-title game.

What a remarkable result in Norman -- one of the most remarkable we will see all season. It is a testament to college football's regular season as a de facto playoff: OU's national-title hopes are, effectively, over... just one game into the season.

Meanwhile, BYU has positioned itself as the leading non-BCS team. Let's be clear: An unbeaten season from BYU doesn't vault them to the BCS title-game ahead of unbeaten Florida and unbeaten Texas (or even unbeaten USC), but it does put them ahead of Boise State for the single at-large BCS-bowl bid that should go to a non-BCS team.

You know, upon further review, I think that BYU's games against TCU, Utah and FSU gives them as many "quality" remaining opponents as anyone from the "BCS" leagues.

(Of course, it is absurdly presumptuous to assume BYU will go unbeaten -- they still have to play TCU and Utah... yeah, and Florida State, but TCU and Utah will be tougher to beat.)

Meanwhile:

*Fire Al Groh. No, seriously. Should happen today.

*Alabama looked very strong -- after BYU, it was the most impressive win of the day. McElroy > Wilson.

*Ohio State didn't deserve to win that game -- or, at least, they don't deserve a whole lot of credit as a national contender for surviving that game.

*Speaking of which: Iowa DEFINITELY didn't deserve to beat Northern Iowa. Rankings should reflect this.

*VERY solid start for Oklahoma State -- think OK St fans were happier about beating Georgia... or Oklahoma losing? I would actually guess the latter.

*Joe Webb... Joe Webb... Joe Webb...

*So much for LSU's defense being enough to carry the team to an SEC West title. Either that, or Sarkisian has completely revived Washington's offense.

*Matt Barkley: Solid, if not spectacular.

*Greg Paulus: Almost. Wow: Almost. For Syracuse football, maybe there SHOULD be such a thing as a "moral victory."

*OK, so I was wrong about Michigan losing to Western Michigan. That was a huge win for RichRod.

*And, finally, I was VERY wrong about Notre Dame. And here's my response: Until they actually give me on-field reason to mock, that will be the last time I poke fun at them.

There it is: Until Notre Dame loses, ND fans, you won't get any anti-ND rhetoric from me, either here or at the Sporting News.

-- D.S.

(Oh, and yes: Florida romped. But it wasn't enough to hit the Biggest Stories of the Night.)

Saturday 09/05 (LeGarrette) Quickie

Two words: Game. Day.

Light post this morning, but I wanted to offer a quick take on LaGarrette Blount's suspension for the rest of the season. In short:

How kneejerk, inappropriate and draconian. And wrong.

Without digging into the mechanics of precisely what he did -- punching the other guy (possibly provoked) and it doesn't even seem like his engagement with Boise fans factored into the suspension -- let's consider the most important mitigating circumstance:

He seemed to grasp, almost instantly, that what he did was wrong -- and that he was sorry.

His apology made the game story -- when was the last time a player had an incident like that and almost immediately apologizes, recognizing the severity of the problem.

In short, he showed remorse -- almost instantly.

It feels like that wasn't even taken into consideration.

Oregon coaches and administrators like to talk about this being a "teachable" moment for Blount -- how about teaching that instant remorse can mitigate an emotional (and stupid and intolerable) mistake.

It is the adults in this situation who have compounded Blount's original mistake with another mistake -- one that I would argue is even more severe and inappropriate.

-- D.S.

(As for Blount's NFL future: Yes, he might have slipped from the 2nd round, but NFL scouts are pretty bottom-line, and if the guy has the talent, they will overlook almost any problem. He won't not be the 2nd-best RB in the country -- per McShay -- a few months from now. The only question is whether Blount drops out of school to focus on NFL draft prep full-time; I wouldn't blame him. Again: Forced out of college football by the "adults" in the room, they make a bad situation worse.

Friday 09/04 Quickie: Blount, CFB Top 25,Vick, Goodell, Pedro, Red Sox, Weis, More

There is something about an athlete on the field breaking the invisible barrier between player and fan. Not "Lambeau Leap," but more "Boise Battlin'."

LeGarrette Blount is the No. 1-ranked term on Google Trends this morning because he broke through that wall -- and fans are mesmerized by that. It is the must-see video; it is the must-discuss sports-news topic.

Blount's freak-out -- which he apologized for and will likely miss a few games for -- eclipsed two things: (1) Boise staking its claim to a BCS bowl spot, and (2) Oregon's surprisingly atrocious offense.

As I reference in the lead of today's SN column, one game's worth of data is better than the paper prognostications of the preseason. But we will have a lot better understanding of whether Boise shut down a prolific offense -- or just took advantage of an overrated team -- by the end of the season.

Regardless, Boise gets a "quality win" check in its box -- and, from the WAC, a desperately needed one, even if they go unbeaten. That's better than most of the Top 25 will get this weekend.

Speaking of the CFB opening weekend, I'm all about the chalk -- I'll take every ranked team to win, and in the couple of matchups between ranked teams, I'll take the higher-ranked team (Oklahoma over BYU, Bama over VA Tech, OK St over Georgia).

Well, except in one game: I am picking Nevada to use its "pistol" offense to out-gun Notre Dame, which appears to have a fine offense but an unproven D.

Among unranked teams, I'll take Western Michigan over Michigan -- this one seems too easy. Michigan starts freshman Tate Forcier at QB. WMU starts super-senior Tim Hiller, running one of the best offenses in the country. So even if WMU's D is rebuilding, Michigan has yet to prove they can score efficiently -- and their D won't keep up with WMU.

Meanwhile, if all Mike Vick does is score one red-zone, Wildcat TD per game -- even on 1 or 2 plays per game -- wouldn't that be more than enough to value him? I look at last night's TD -- rather than the sacks, INT or lost fumble. He won't play that many downs in a game the rest of the season.

There's a lot more in today's SN column, but the big thing is: College football is back. Enjoy tomorrow's games everyone. We will have the usual open-thread throughout the day.

If you're taking off for the long weekend, have fun and be safe -- I will be checking in throughout the weekend, so feel free to check in!

-- D.S.

TimTeblog Today: Debunking Backlash Myth

Two days before Florida's season opener, here are the new posts you can find on TimTeblog.com today:

*Debunking (yet again) the Tebow "backlash" myth.

(Interesting: I have heard from a bunch of folks questioning my take. Again: There are always going to be noisy extremists on message boards. Maybe I'm oversimplifying -- or projecting -- but it feels like most fans like him, most opposing fans begrudgingly respect him and although most fans can agree he gets a LOT of media coverage, it's not unreasonable why he earns it.)

*Tebow Quote of the Day from the must-read Alligator Army.

(I'm not sure AA is a particularly big fan of mine, and I'm more than happy to defer to the hierarchy AA lays out in the quote that Tebow belongs to Florida alumni and students, discounting people with a regional/childhood fandom or... um... fans like me.)

*The defining word of Tebow's 2009 season: Expectations.

(An expanded version of the Quickie lead today. The upshot: Yes, the expectations are crushing. But you get the sense that Tebow -- and Meyer and Spikes -- would have it no other way.)

In case you missed it:
*Tebow leads HeismanPundit.com preseason poll.
*An incredibly relevant quote from Pete Carroll.
*Tim Tebow vs. Steve Young: Will Tebow get a Bill Walsh?

-- D.S.

CFB Top 25 Picks: Thursday Night Edition

Complete CFB Top 25 picks coming tomorrow, but I wanted to address tonight's games (home team in bold):

14 Boise State over 16 Oregon
19 Utah over Utah State
Bonus! South Carolina over NC State

Excited for College Football Kickoff?

Take a trip in the way-back machine to 2008, courtesy of Holly and EDSBS. The video is so well-done that it is worth revisiting today:

09/03 Quickie: Florida's "Win-or-Fail" Expectations, Schilling, Kazmir, Vick

Today is more college football lead-up, and you'll have to indulge me for today's SN column lead, tied into SN naming Florida its No. 1 team in the country (kudos to the NYT's Paul Myerberg at the Quad for going against the grain and naming Texas No. 1 ahead of Florida).

My point is this: It's "BCS title or bust" for Florida. Win it all or fail. Those are crushing expectations -- equal to the "all-time" stakes on the line for this team.

We have seen this come up twice in the last half-decade.

(1) USC in 2005. If you think I'm jocking Florida -- and, yes, I obviously am -- I also was ready to give USC 2005 that "greatest team ever" status... that is: IF they won the title.

Most folks remember the absurd "Are they they best ever?" stuff that was being discussed... in October, November and December. We don't even talk about the hysteria in August, like Florida is experiencing now.

The whole thing felt...premature, especially as Texas kept pace. Then, post-Rose Bowl, it simply was ridiculous, after USC was exposed as a pretender -- supremely good offense, mediocre (for a national-title contender) defense.

Best team of all time? They weren't even the best team that year -- in fact, by vanquishing USC, Texas '05 joined a very short list of "GOAT" contenders. Matt Leinart went from "Greatest College Player of All Time?" to helping to promote the very viable argument: "Vince Young Is the Greatest College Player of All Time."

The parallels with Florida '09 are interesting -- ultimately, they fall short. Again, USC's defense was merely OK, for a team with national-title aspirations. Compare: Florida's defense not only shut down one of the Top 3 most prolific offenses in college football history a year ago, but the entire two-deep comes back this year, plus last year's redshirts (Beal, etc.) and some awesome true freshmen (Bostin, Jenkins, Finley). This defense could end up one of the best in college football history. Huge difference with USC '05. THE difference.

(2) Florida basketball in 2007. They won the title in 2006, then returned virtually everyone -- the top 6 players, at least. The expectation was simple: Win a back-to-back NCAA championship or the season is a complete bust. Battle-hardened by '06 and laser-focused on '07, they did it.

(Actually, I found that '07 tournament excruciating to watch, because winning was expected and losing was intolerable. When they won it was: "Yes, but they were SUPPOSED to win." That kind of harsh judgment has an upside: Partly because they played under those conditions, I would argue they were the best starting 5 in modern college hoops history.)

Florida players have slipped this offseason and talked a little bit about the history -- about repeating, about being the first Florida team to go unbeaten, about being the best defense ever. Urban snapped them back to the "We just want to win the SEC East" talking point.

But you get the sense that Urban Meyer relishes the "national title or fail" stakes. That was why Tim Tebow came back; that was why Brandon Spikes came back. There is no greater highwire than to say that anything less than a national championship is a massive disappointment.

Just ask Pete Caroll.

To be fair, if "Team X" had come back under the same conditions as Florida this year, I would be making the same argument. I said the same thing about Tyler Hansbrough and UNC hoops last season -- anything less than a national title would have been a failure for him and the Heels.

But I think it is important to understand the stakes for the nation's No. 1 college football team this fall:

They are battling their own potential as much as they are battling the rest of the country.

More you'll find in today's SN column:
*Senator Curt Schilling? Oh for cripes' sake.
*Vick back for Week 1? I just drafted him, so let's hope so.
*Kazmir: THE X-factor of the AL playoffs.
*Oregon at Boise State: What a terrific season-opener.

Complete column here. More later.

-- D.S.

Wednesday 09/02 Quickie: College Football,Rubio, Brady, Hamels, Goodell, FIU, More

Let's set aside the next three days here to dig into the college football season, which starts tomorrow night and ramps up nationally on Saturday.

Today's SN column leads with the Top 5 storylines I think will dominate the season -- obviously, the thrill of college football is the emergence (often sudden) of the unexpected. Still...

(1) Tebow as GOAT. You may be weary, but "all-time" is an undeniably interesting thing to watch in real-time.

(2) Florida repeat. There is something inherently dramatic about "championship or fail," and Florida is looking to match Nebraska as the best team of the ESPN (post-1980) era.

(3) Menage a Heisman. Believe it or not, I actually think that Colt McCoy will win the Heisman, even if Tebow leads Florida to a wire-to-wire unbeaten regular season. McCoy seems to have that "it's his turn" mojo from the media.

(4) Notre Dame. It remains a huge brand in college football, with all the intrigue over whether they are "back" or merely pretending. Don't be fooled: A 9- or 10-win season will be built on the back of a flimsy schedule, and when they get their inevitable BCS bowl bid -- even though better teams will be snubbed -- they will get destroyed, and we will once again say: "Um, why do they get the near-automatic BCS bid again?)

(5) This year's Utah: I think Boise State will go unbeaten. But if they lose at home to Oregon tomorrow night -- and I don't think they will -- look for TCU to be the BCS-crasher. (Unless, of course, Notre Dame snaps up the spot designated for the unbeaten BCS-crasher. Ridiculous.)

In the comments, I'd love to get your own top storyline (or storylines) for the season. (Don't forget to sign up for the College Pick 'Em group -- Daily Quickie Readers!)

More you'll find in today's column:
*Don't buy the Kahn-friendly Rubio spin.
*Cole Hamels: Best start of the season for him.
*Rockies back on top of NL Wild Card.
*Don't sleep on this brewing NFL-NFLPA collusion scandal.
*And more.

Complete column here. More later.

-- D.S.

What Would Implode the BCS?Not Inequity, But SEC Seceding

Ed Gunther has an interesting post yesterday ("How the BCS Will Die") about the scenario that would/could/should implode the BCS:

To oversimplify his argument, the moment when one BCS league sees its unbeaten team shut out of a title game by others from the "better" leagues. Say, if Cincinnati went undefeated but didn't make the title game because unbeaten Texas and 1-loss Florida were there instead. That snubbed league then lobbies the rest of the group internally for a playoff.

Regulars know that I agree about a BCS implosion scenario, but see it slightly differently: The best chance of seeing the BCS implode is if the SEC gets snubbed, then "secedes" (or, as I have put it "SEC-edes") from the BCS and forms its own "Eff-Off" playoff.

I think it's pretty clear that we were close to that a year ago, when Texas nearly out-pointed Florida for the right to meet Oklahoma in the BCS title game.

I think that if that had happened, Florida would have led the charge for the SEC to get out of the BCS and simply say, "If we have the best team in the country and that's still not good enough to break through the BCS formula, we simply withdraw and will crown our own champ."

As I have argued, it would be difficult -- if not impossible -- for the BCS to crown a "national" champ without the SEC's participation.

In fact, it makes very little competitive sense for the SEC (or Big 12) to participate in the BCS, given that their teams have great potential to be monumentally screwed over (despite qualitative reputational advantages); it makes very little economic sense too, given that the SEC could command billions for an 8-team playoff (an SEC-Big 12 playoff combo would command even more).

There would be no backlash from the NCAA -- remember, the NCAA is not affiliated with the BCS; the BCS is a cabal created by a select group of conferences.

The other leagues might be ticked, but their only recourse would be to come to the table to negotiate their way in to the SEC (or SEC/Big 12) playoff, rather than the other way around. (And if the Big Ten and Pac-10 don't want to be a part of it, they can feel free to opt-out; the backlash would come from their own fans and coaches.)

The problem with the Big East or ACC getting screwed like your average Mountain West or WAC champ is that the Big East and ACC have little competitive juice to stand on; nobody takes them seriously. But the SEC and/or Big 12? Without them, there IS no "national" title to be bestowed.

So if you want to see the end to the BCS, root for the SEC or Big 12 to get screwed out of a national-title spot in favor of a lower-tier BCS league champ with a "better" record.

-- D.S.

Tuesday 09/01 Quickie: Favre, RichRod,Thome, USC, Rubio, Erin Andrews, More

I have no doubt that Brett Favre didn't intend to hurt Eugene Wilson. I don't think that notion is incompatible with the fact that it was a dirty play. Say the word: Dirty.

As if Brett Favre could engender any more hostility from fans (at least the ones outside of Minneapolis, where the fans are single-handedly propping up NFLShop.com buying Favre jerseys), he went for Wilson's knees. I believe he knew what he was doing, even if he had no intention of actually hurting Wilson.

It's a good Tuesday morning when you can wake up and take a shot at Favre, like I did in today's SN column. By tomorrow, we'll all have moved on. For today, it's the big story.

More you'll find in today's column:

*Worst GM in sports: David Kahn.
*RichRod: I don't buy the tears.
*Venus: Not off to a good Open start.
*MLB Trade Deadline: What trade deadline?
*Does Thome/Garland make LA the favorites in the NL?
*USC's ineligible stud CB: It's just not their year.
*EA on Oprah: The only choice she could have made.

My quest to lead my fantasy baseball team from perennial cellar-dwelling to the playoffs in a very competitive 16-team league -- I am right on the cusp -- took a hit last week, but I drafted Adam Lind and have enjoyed his breakthrough all season long. As it looks like I will just miss the playoffs, yesterday was like his victory lap for me -- 2 HR, 8 RBI -- and I wanted to tip my cap to him for his service to my team.

Complete SN column here. More later.

-- D.S.

Happy 3-Year Anniversary, DanShanoff.com

Three years ago today, I filed the final edition of the Daily Quickie on ESPN.com and welcomed readers at a new blog: DanShanoff.com. And 2,137 posts later, things are still going strong.

I say this on every anniversary of this date: What a truly amazing experience this has been (and continues to be), for three big reasons:

(1) What remains a terrific connection with (and my daily gratefulness for) your continued attention, feedback and support.

(2) Getting to know so many folks in the sports-blog universe -- both the "indie" writers and the increasing number within traditional media, a welcome development.

(3) The chance to be even a small part of this game-changing platform in how sports media is produced -- and consumed.

A few of the highlights of the past year, at least for me:

*The birth of my second child last October.

(Let's be honest: Everything else is a distant runner-up to that.)

*Launching TimTeblog.com this summer (and, as a fan, the wild ride to Florida's national championship a season ago -- ha: remember the posts after the Ole Miss loss?)

*The rapid proliferation of Twitter as a medium where everyone -- bloggers and fans alike -- can instantly weigh in on breaking news, share recommended links and more.

*The continued opportunity to write a daily column for SportingNews.com, which I hope you all have enjoyed as much as I have enjoyed putting it together every morning.

*My increasingly frequent posts about the state of sports media, which remains a true passion of mine and will continue to be something I enjoy analyzing here.

*All our Daily Quickie Readers prediction competitions. (Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Quickie Readers groups of ESPN.com's Pigskin Pick 'Em and College Pick 'Em!)

*What you wouldn't know, but I don't mind revealing: I spent the early part of this summer working on a book proposal. It remains a work-in-progress, but I hope to solve that soon.

Looking ahead to the next year, you know what I'm struck by most? That next June, I will have been publishing this blog longer than I wrote the Daily Quickie. We'll talk about it more then.

In the meantime, the biggest thing is that I cannot thank you enough for your support. You pay me the highest compliment simply by stopping by to connect with me each day.

That alone continues to make this worth it.

Many thanks.

-- D.S.

Monday 08/31 Quickie: Brady, Cassel,Cutler, Michigan, NL Wild Card, Greinke

Very big anniversary today around here. More on that later.

Meanwhile, I lead today's SN column with an attempt at a unifying theory around the weekend's biggest NFL news: The injuries to Brady and Cassel.

I am all for picking the Pats to win the Super Bowl -- I'm picking them. But, of course, it all rests on this assumption -- a big assumption, frankly -- that Tom Brady stays healthy.

And Friday night's shoulder issue illustrated why that assumption is not to be taken for granted. Sure, you can say, "Well, ANYONE can get injured." But, at this point, I think that Brady has to show that he ISN'T injury-prone, rather than giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Especially if you are doing something like making your preseason pick to win the Super Bowl.

Meanwhile, Brady's injury (and the Pats subsequently cutting "next Cassel" Kevin O'Connell) is a nice reminder that the Pats had a pretty decent backup QB last year -- who is now doubtful-to-maybe for Week 1 with the Chiefs.

I said this yesterday: The Chiefs will regret paying for Cassel when they had no expectation of competing this season anyway, putting themselves in a position to draft regional superstar Sam Bradford.

Speaking of regret:
*I'll bet RichRod has no regrets about Michigan's off-season workouts.

*Think Pat Bowlen regrets trading Jay Cutler? Think Jay Cutler has any regrets about leaving Denver?

*I regret ever making a case (even jokingly) about Cliff Lee for NL Cy, when Tim Lincecum is so clearly the best pitcher in the NL, in MLB and on the planet right now.

*(No offense, Zack Greinke. I hope you win the AL Cy, because you deserve it, running a close second to Lincecum.)

*I wonder how many people will regret picking Ole Miss to finish in the Top 5? That implies that they will go 12-0 in the regular season (or, at the very least, 11-1 with a win over Alabama but a loss to someone unexpected).

*No regrets if you're a Little League World Series champ. (Although you have to wonder how many LLWS participants -- 20 or 30 years later -- still think it's the best thing that ever happened to them.)

Lots more in today's column. Check it out here. More later this morning and today. Big anniversary today!

-- D.S.

Breaking-ish: Taylor Mays Is...Jewish?

I presume that USC football fans knew this, but I didn't until I read about it in the New York Times' profile of Taylor Mays this morning: Taylor Mays is Jewish.

Not "mom-is-Jewish-but-otherwise-nonobservant" Jewish, and he puts football ahead of the High Holidays, but he is bar-mitzvahed and did some Hebrew-schooling.

(Why does this matter to me? Longtime readers know that as a Jewish sports fan, I keep my radar out for high-level college and pro Jewish athletes, because they are fairly rare -- and awesome.)

Some questions:

(a) How did I not know about this until now?
(b) Like Jon Scheyer, can I like the player but loathe his team?
(c) Is Taylor Mays the greatest Jewish football player ever?

I think someone needs to create a tribute T-shirt that features a generic football player wearing the No. 2 and tackling someone, reading "I Had A Blast At Taylor Mays' Bar-Mitzvah!"

For those of you who have been to bar-mitzvahs in your time, you know the proud tradition of the bar/bat-mitzvah T-shirt every kid receives.

-- D.S.

UPDATE: The more I dig into this, the more it is obvious that this has been well-known news about Mays for a long time. I am shamed for not knowing this earlier.

Sunday 08/30 (Very) Quickie

NCAA violations at Michigan football? With RichRod, who DIDN'T see this coming?

(Sounds like RichRod flagrantly violated the rules about how much time the players can spend working out in the summer. You always figured that most elite programs got around this by having the players work out as much as they can on a "voluntary" basis, but this seems more "from-the-top.")

Matt Cassel: Injured! It's his leg, and who knows how bad it really is, but is sure seems like a bit of karmic payback for how his career took off last year.

(The question needs to be asked: Was KC really going to turn it around this year? If not, why not skip the cost of trading for -- and paying for -- Cassel, give up on the season and get Sam Bradford, who will be 10 times the NFL QB that Cassel is.)

Cliff Lee for NL Cy: It's over! Beyond the way I relented that Tim Lincecum was the best in the NL -- and MLB -- Lee was only going to keep my support if he kept dominating. Instead, he got shellacked by the Braves.

Meanwhile, speaking of the Giants, if they're getting great performances out of Barry Zito at the end of August in must-have head-to-head game with the Rockies, they may not be out just yet.

I think Miles Austin just went up fantasy draft boards. He didn't score, but he looks like he could emerge as the Cowboys' top option at WR. Meanwhile, is Felix Jones not just the home-run threat, but the guy who will get the ball from the Cowboys near the goal line?

Chad Ochocinco scooped the media by reporting Andre Smith's signing through his Twitter feed.

Did Brady Quinn just lock up the Browns' starting QB job?

Is Scott Feldman the best Jewish pitcher since Steve Stone?

Am I concerned that Florida freshman sensation Andre Debose has a major hamstring injury? Not really. Even though he was expected to help out at the "Percy Position," the Gators have three players ahead of him on that depth chart. As good as Debose is, he was never going to be as good as Percy was as a freshman. Give him the redshirt and turn him loose in '10.

USC loses starting WR Ronald Johnson. Not as big as, say, losing Damien Williams, but a big blow. Good thing they have like 6 h.s. all-Americans sitting behind him. Still: One more omen that this won't be USC's year in the Pac-10.

LLWS: California leaves no doubt in LLWS US title game, will face Taiwan today in the final.

-- D.S.

Saturday 08/29 (Very) Quickie

So...um...any reasons to be concerned about Tom Brady's shoulder after Albert Haynesworth crushed it?

Albert Pujols game-winning walk-off HR: It's not that Pujols is merely the 2009 NL MVP in a runaway... or the best active player in baseball, again in a runaway... I think when it's all over we will realize he is a Top 5 player of all-time.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' 1st-team offense just steamrolled the Cards last night (but Beanie Wells made his statement with 2 TDs)

Tim Lincecum rules: I officially clarify my "Cliff Lee for NL Cy" as an earnest bit of fun-ish cheerleading that has no basis in the reality that Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball... again.

Am I still thinking of '08 or '07 Scott Kazmir when I contend he's going to be the X-factor of the AL playoffs?

Brandon Marshall isn't worth the headaches... especially when your starting QB is Kyle Orton.

Anyone else watch that HS football game last night between Top 10 Smith (VA) and Venice (FL) on ESPNU? No? Featuring QB Phillip Sims (headed to Alabama) and QB Trey Burton (Florida)? No? Well, both looked good -- Sims looked particularly good. (Sure, you could say I need a life, but when you have two kids under the age of 3, you don't have much of one. Friday night TV is it!)

Will any punters just keep hitting the Dallas jumbotron, over and over, just to be a dick about the rule that says any punt that hits the jumbotron is replayed?

Who's watching LLWS today?

-- D.S.