Monday, October 19, 2009

BlogPoll Top 25 Ballot: What's This "BCS?"

Analysis below the poll:

RankTeamDelta
1 Alabama 1
2 Florida 1
3 Texas
4 Cincinnati
5 TCU 5
6 Boise State 1
7 Oregon 1
8 Iowa 5
9 Southern Cal
10 Miami (Florida) 2
11 Georgia Tech 13
12 LSU 6
13 Houston 2
14 Penn State 5
15 Brigham Young 7
16 Oklahoma State 4
17 Virginia Tech 12
18 Texas Tech
19 Utah
20 Arizona
21 Pittsburgh
22 West Virginia
23 Central Michigan
24 South Carolina 1
25 Ohio State 11
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Nebraska (#11), South Florida (#16), Kansas (#17), Arkansas (#18), Auburn (#21), Oklahoma (#23).


As I said in my Sporting News column today: "Style points are dead," at least as a concept at the top of the rankings. Because Florida certainly didn't win with any. Neither did Texas. And neither did Alabama -- although the Tide wasn't nearly as ugly as UF and UT.

The real question is how to position the contenders beyond the Big 3: I still like Cincy, but I'm happy to take arguments for Boise State (decreasingly) and TCU (increasingly). If TCU beats BYU in Provo next weekend, I'll jump them over Boise.

I am more than happy to give Iowa credit -- mirroring the BCS computer polls. Winning at Penn State and at Wisconsin is better than any two wins at the top of USC's resume. (Not sure why I have Iowa below Oregon -- it's irrational and I'll likely change it.)

UPDATE: My Mumme Poll ballot -- the best 12 teams in the country, irrespective of rank -- this week is the Top 12 above. Here was the comment I submitted with the ballot:

I'm beginning to blur the lines between "resume" and "signature wins/losses" -- call it the "Boise Effect." At what point do we stop overweighting a single quality win against an otherwise weak schedule?

Sunday, October 18, 2009

The Final Vegas Sports-Book Tally

Cincy -2.5: Win. (Thursday.)

Texas -3: Push.

Ohio State -14: Lose. (AARRRGGH. WHAT WAS I THINKING??!?!)

Northwestern -14: Win. (Ahh, the irony!)

Minnesota +17.5: Lose. (Not far off, actually.)

USC -10: Lose. (Foiled by Notre Dame, naturally.)

Georgia Tech -2.5: Win.

Texas/Ohio State parlay: Lose.

Texas/USC parlay: Lose.

In the end, I only lost $20 -- for better or worse, the Texas push took a big chunk of risk off the table.

I had a couple gut feelings -- my "coulda-shoulda-woulda's" that are, obviously, totally useless in hindsight: Houston covering over Tulane, South Carolina using that generous +18 at Alabama.

And, of course, I don't know what I was thinking picking Ohio State to cover. I was talked into it, but I take responsibility for not checking that with "But you think Ohio State sucks, Dan!" internal monologue. And I should have known Notre Dame would come back to eff me.

My one regret is the Texas push. If I had any experience in sports gambling before, say, 48 hours ago, I would have acknowledged that even if I think Texas is going to win by 10 -- let alone 3 -- I should have bought the half point to allow me to put Texas at -2.5, hedging against a FG differential. But whatever: I got my fairly sizable bet back, which is better than losing it.

And, let's be clear: I see all my losses as the karmic balance for Florida's ridiculous escape at home today against Arkansas. As you can imagine, I was flipping out for most of it.

More on that tomorrow, and more on the Vegas trip next week.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Saturday 10/17 (Vegas CFB) Quickie

It is my final day in Las Vegas. Mrs. Quickie and I stayed through tonight for two big reasons: We didn't want to be flying during the Florida game, and I wanted the chance to bet on college football -- on a full-slate Saturday -- for the first time.

I dipped my toe in the water on Thursday night -- successfully. But I have been touting Cincy for years -- let alone this season -- and I just KNEW that -2.5 was an opportunity.

In looking over today's schedule, I am feeling a lot less confident. I had every intention of putting my weekly picks on the line -- money behind mouth for once -- but it is not easy.

There is one game I feel strongly about (for myself... not for other folks -- for you all, it's for entertainment purposes only: Texas over Oklahoma (by more than the game's 3-point line). Probably USC (-10) over Notre Dame, given my constant anti-ND yammering. After that?

*Iowa at Wisconsin? Yikes -- so iffy, and I've gone back and forth between "classic trap!" for Iowa and "classic gag in obvious trap situation!" for Wisco.

*GA Tech over VA Tech? It's my Upset Special, sure... right up until I saw the Commenter who said to note my own Transitive property there. (Don't have to worry about the points there -- GA Tech is getting them.)

One thing I am sure of: I will NOT be betting on Florida in any way. It's a no-win proposition: If I pick them to win by more than 25 and they don't, will I find myself disappointed by a win? If I pick them to win by less than 25, will I find myself rooting against a rout?

And, so today, a very special edition of the weekly college football picks -- with and without the spread applied. (Still not sure which ones I'll actually bet on. Biggest prospects in bold. Will update on that.)

1 Florida over Arkansas
2 Alabama over 22 South Carolina
(But by more than 17 or 18? SC's D good enough to keep it closer?)
3 Texas over 20 Oklahoma
(But by more than 3 points? That's my bet.)
19 Georgia Tech over 4 Virginia Tech -- Upset Special
(GA Tech is getting 3-4 points. Gotta do it.)
6 USC over @ 25 Notre Dame
(But by more than 10? Back up your anti-Weis bias with cash, Dan!)
7 Ohio State over @ Purdue
(But by 2 TDs? At Purdue? Hmm...)
9 Miami over @ Central Florida
11 Iowa over @ Wisconsin -- Say...
(Hmm: Books have Wisco by 2 or 3)
12 TCU over Colorado St
14 Penn St over Minnesota
(But by more than 17? Hmmm...)
15 Nebraska over Texas Tech
16 Oklahoma St over Mizzou
17 Kansas over @ Colorado
18 BYU over @ San Diego St
23 Houston over @ Tulane
24 Utah over @ UNLV

More Games of Note
Michigan St over Northwestern
(But by 14? I kinda have to take the Cats, don't I?)
Clemson over Wake Forest
(But by 7 or more? Hmmm....)
Georgia over @ Vanderbilt
Cal over @ UCLA
Maryland over Virginia -- Not touching with 10-foot pole

More from this morning:

*One more reason the Yankees paid for Sabathia.

*Pedro! What a great effort, wasted.

*Sounds like Midnight Madness was as crazy as expected at Kentucky.

Sorry for the brevity on non-CFB stuff. I'm getting an early jump on what should be a fun day.

-- D.S.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Friday 10/16 Quickie: Balloon Boy, Phillies,
Texas, Cincinnati, NFL Week 6, ALCS, More

LAS VEGAS -- So I'm wondering two competing things. (1) With my win on my first-ever sports-book bet (Cincy -2.5 over South Florida), should I call it a career? (2) Why did I bet only $50? I was SURE about that game.

My Vegas trip is halfway over. So far: A success. High-end hotel. Great meal. 1-for-1 on sports wagers. Terrific conference yesterday, seeing so many folks in person that I really only know by reputation or email correspondence, fun (free) party last night courtesy of the ESPN folks.

The time difference continues to throttle me. I was up at 3:30 this a.m. to file today's SN column, which leads with my attempt to tie Balloon Boy to the biggest sports story of the weekend. In short: Both B.B. and Texas-Oklahoma are vastly overrated as "events." (I'll still be watching, obviously.)

I'm not sure what can top the gratification of putting my money where my mouth was on Cincy -- a team I have been pimping as a legit Top 5 team since the start of the season. That was a terrific win, especially with Tony Pike leaving with the arm injury.

(I'll tell you what I'm not betting on -- Florida. And not just because the line is -25 or something equally freakish. I don't want to be in a position of rooting for anything but a win, period. I have to presume that most teams' fans feel similarly. You don't s--t where you eat, so to speak.)

More you'll find in today's column:

*Here's a treat: Watching the Phillies-Dodgers game last night in the company of massive Philly fans AJ Daulerio, Enrico from The 700 Level and OnTheDL's Dan Levy. Carlos Ruiz!

*It's almost not worth talking about Yankees-Angels Game 1, because the game's going to be a rain-out, from all indications.

*The other two games to keep an eye on tomorrow: VA Tech at Georgia Tech -- which is going to be my Upset Special -- and Iowa at Wisconsin (Wisco is favored over the unbeaten Hawkeyes).

*My Top 5 NFL Storylines for Week 6 -- Giants-Saints should be fun. Same with Ravens-Vikings. Other than that? I actually found myself staring at the board of NFL lines at a casino last night and asking aloud how on earth people bet on the NFL against the spread, given how unpredictable the results are. I can barely pick correctly straight up.

*The Lakers were in LV last night. I skipped that -- had more fun watching Cincy-USF and LAD-PHI on two huge screens with a bunch of really great sports fans.

Plus a ton more. Check it out here, and I'll be trying to file throughout the day. Still collecting my thoughts to break down the big takeaways from the conference.

(Any of you all have any college football locks -- in the mold of my Cincy pick -- that you want to pass along? I'd love to make a wager on behalf of DS.com commenters. Put 'em in the Comments.)

-- D.S.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Thursday 10/15 Quickie: Vegas Road Trip

So I was on the plane when Boise State-Tulsa kicked off, but if I had already landed in Vegas, I would have run to the nearest sports book and (legally) put my money on Tulsa, an 8-point underdog at home. Boise won by 7. I didn't win or lose any money and I'm already jonesing to explore the vagaries of the sports book in more depth.

Welcome to the Adventures of the Vegas Virgin! Yes, it is my first time (ever) in Las Vegas. Mrs. Quickie and I arrived in the early evening, checked in at the Wynn (v. nice) and managed to make it out for a ridiculously good steak at Prime before the time difference -- and my 4 a.m. (local) Sporting News filing deadline -- had me collapsed in a food-coma/time-differential heap.

Here's today's SN column, leading with my adventures in Vegas, but including takes on all the big storylines of the day. I've got the Blogs With Balls conference all day -- including a "Future of Sports Media" panel I'm moderating at 11 a.m. local time (2 p.m. ET) Posting will be spotty -- but I'll try to update via Twitter.

-- D.S.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Wednesday 10/14 Quickie: A-Rod, LCS,
Rush, Tebow, Weis, Arenas, More

Prepping to fly out to Vegas -- my first time there -- later today for this week's Blogs With Balls 2.0 conference. Updates coming as they happen...

With the abrupt end to the LDS series on Monday night, today lines up as a slow day. It's a good moment, however, to step back in the lead of today's SN column and recognize that A-Rod is on the verge of something huge.

There is nothing more redemptive in sports than a championship. Just ask Kevin Garnett. (Or Dan Marino.)

A-Rod could be one of the least likeable stars in MLB history, but as soon as he wins that title, the whole perception -- and perspective -- about him changes.

It is all the more important because it is now clear that A-Rod having big games is a big reason -- perhaps the biggest reason, offensively -- the Yankees are the favorite to win the title.

It is not enough for A-Rod to draft on his teammates to that elusive championship. He's got to lead them -- even carry them. If the LDS was any indication, this is the year.

(Alternatively, if he stumbles now and the Yankees DON'T win the title, he is an even bigger goat -- given what he proved he could do in the LDS round.)

More you'll find in today's SN column:

*Torre might retire after 2010, but I could see him coming back if the offer was right.

*SN was focusing on Sam Bradford being the clear -- perhaps only -- solid QB prospect of the 2010 NFL Draft (I'd argue McCoy is going to be very good...in the right system), but the big news to me was that Tim Tebow was in SN's mock draft at No. 9, to the Raiders (Nooooo!)

*Oklahoma-Texas ain't what it was a year ago. (And, by the way, how "critical" could the game be if last year's winner didn't even end up with an advantage in the final BCS standings?)

*How quaint that Charlie Weis thinks that ND has a chance against USC this year. It'll be one more example of how overmatched Weis is against elite teams.

(I hope the BCS bowl honchos are taking note -- good TV ratings can't possibly be worth giving a BCS-unworthy ND a BCS bowl slot ahead of a clearly superior at-large team.)

*As a Wiz fan, I had been waiting on two things this preseason: (1) A Wiz win, and (2) Gilbert Arenas to have a very solid game. He was 9/11 FG and the Wiz won. I really want to pick the Wizards to win the East, but I know I'm not going to. I'll settle for "strong enough contender to give the Magic a series in the conference semis."

*I appreciate Jim Irsay going negative on Rush Limbaugh's ownership potential, but no one in the Irsay family is allowed to take the high road after the way they abandoned Baltimore in the middle of the night.

Complete column here. More later, more likely via the Twitter feed on the right side (or here, if you're on Twitter) than posts.

Happy 1st birthday to my amazing younger son. Having just experienced it, I will argue that there is no more of a blurry year that the 1st year of having a second kid.

-- D.S.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

New Yahoo/Tebow: Tebow As Dilfer 2.0

Just wanted to point you to my latest Yahoo column about Tim Tebow, comparing him to Trent Dilfer and extolling the virtues of the QB as "game manager." Hopefully, it makes you think differently about Tebow -- as different as the new context he's playing in. Check it out here.

-- D.S.

Blogs With Balls 2.0 Countdown: 2 Days

Just a reminder that I will be in Las Vegas at the end of this week for the Blogs With Balls 2.0 conference. Beyond attending, I will be moderating a panel on "The Future of Sports Media" -- how weighty! -- featuring Matt Ufford, Bethlehem Shoals, Kevin Blackistone and Amy K. Nelson. Should be an interesting session.

Perhaps even more interesting: This will be my FIRST trip to Las Vegas. Yes, ever.

If you will be there, please drop me a note -- look forward to commiserating with folks there... when I'm not being overwhelmed by the experience.

Keep an eye on the Twitter feed for up-to-the-minute updates about the conference and my various tame adventures away from the conference. I will also have posts here, as I can file them -- particularly off the topics of discussion at the conference.

-- D.S.

Tuesday 10/13 Quickie: Wildcat, Phillies,
Edwards, Lidge, Ingram, Durant, More

I have been on the side of the folks who think that the Wildcat is a disruptive and transformational force in the NFL -- not an incremental gimmick or fad.

And while the rest of the league timidly pursues some implementation of it, the Dolphins continue to go all-in -- and last night was nearly the landmark that its debut was a year ago.

Even as defensive genius Rex Ryan dismisses it as a "gimmick," the question that leads today's SN column is this: If your team is terrible, why WOULDN'T you experiment more boldly with it?

Meanwhile, Huston Street is the new Brad Lidge, and Brad Lidge is the old Brad Lidge - and the LDS round concludes, rather abruptly. Here was my favorite stat of the night: In the last four seasons, not a single LDS series has gone 5 games. Despite a few fun finishes in individual games, this year's edition was a dud -- was there any sense of series-defining drama? (OK, maybe the Yankees looking unstoppable -- but otherwise, wasn't this LDS defined by the teams that were swept out?)

More you'll find in today's column:

*Braylon Edwards: Can't complain about his debut.

*Kevin Durant finally gets plus-minus (he was plus-24 last night).

*NFL coach who needs to be fired: Fox? Zorn? How about Del Rio?

*Greatest moment of the decade in college hoops: George Mason making the Final Four, obviously. (And, oh, how I tried to make it "Florida wins back-to-back titles.")

*Rasheed Wallace is crazy: 72 wins for this Celtics team? Guess what: They're not even winning the East, let alone winning 72.

A lot more in the column today -- check it out here. More later.

-- D.S.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Monday 10/12 Quickie: Broncos, Florida,
Yankees, Red Sox, Lidge, McNabb, More

I don't care that so many people are taking the day off for the holiday -- it's an absolutely loaded SN column today.

You can imagine the temptation to lead with something pointing out that yesterday was just about as bad of a day for Boston sports fans as you can get -- not "18-1" bad, but pretty bad.

The Pats' loss can be rationalized away -- it's only Week 5, let's see the Broncos do that in the playoffs, yada yada yada... still: The Pats don't look like a Top 3 team in the AFC.

The Red Sox loss -- season-ending -- was a little more ignominious: Not just a sweep, but losing that 9th-inning lead. At Fenway. While the Yankees are advancing. Insult piled upon insult.

I fully expect the defensive "well, we didn't expect much anyway" reaction -- please, spare us. The Red Sox are built to contend for a title, not limp out of the playoffs in an LDS sweep.

But, no! I didn't go for that low-hanging fruit. Instead, I wanted to reinforce that the best teams in the NFL and college football are doing it with dominating defense.

Forget Kyle Orton's newfound respect -- or the Tebow sideshow (well, don't forget it entirely). The most impressive thing about these teams -- their foundation of success -- is defense.

You won't take the opinion from me, because I have an obvious bias, but I think this Florida defense is one of the greatest in college football history. Start with the way they shut down the most prolific offense in college football history last January; after that, it all seems easier.

The Florida offense isn't nearly as prolific as thought -- well, the running game might be, and Aaron Hernandez is the best TE in the country. But the defense is so good that the offense doesn't HAVE To be good to win a national title. Just good enough.

Anyway, that's today's lead. The column also has talking points for every NFL game (McNabb-to-Maclin! Titans need to face reality! Redskins stimulus plan! Austin Fantasy Mania!), a renewed call for SOME kind of expanded replay in baseball, a sarcastic cheer for Brad Lidge and a bit of sympathy for Cardinals fans.

Check it all out here -- tons to cover today. More later.

-- D.S.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

This Week's BlogPoll Top 25 Ballot: Big 3

Here is my first pass at this week's BlogPoll Top 25 ballot. Florida locks down No. 1, but I jumped Alabama over Texas on the strength of Bama's road win at Ole Miss, making the Rebels look absolutely awful; Texas dominated Colorado at home -- it simply wasn't as impressive of a win.

That's not to say that Texas doesn't have a claim on "Big Three" status, along with Florida and Bama. To be honest, I had trouble finding worthy contenders after that -- and after I got to the high teens, my feeling generally was the remainders weren't worthy of being ranked, for one reason or another. Maybe I'm too focused on "national title contenders." Anyway:

RankTeamDelta
1 Florida
2 Alabama 1
3 Texas 1
4 Cincinnati
5 Virginia Tech 3
6 LSU
7 Boise State
8 Oregon 1
9 Southern Cal 1
10 TCU 5
11 Nebraska
12 Miami (Florida) 1
13 Iowa 2
14 Ohio State
15 Houston
16 South Florida 1
17 Kansas 5
18 Arkansas
19 Penn State 1
20 Oklahoma State 1
21 Auburn 5
22 Brigham Young 1
23 Oklahoma
24 Georgia Tech 6
25 South Carolina
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Mississippi (#22), Stanford (#23), Missouri (#24), Wisconsin (#25).


As you can see: Arkansas gets a bump from me for beating Auburn and for being the best 2-loss team in the country. They play Florida next week in Gainesville -- maybe it's a trap game for the Gators... or maybe Arkansas becomes the best 3-loss team in the country.

Sunday 10/11 (Tebow) Quickie

Read the post below (or check out TimTeblog) for my take on Tebow's return last night. But needless to say, the real story of the game is how jaw-droppingly good Florida's defense was/is.

Last night's game affirmed the Gators are the favorite to win the national title because of their D -- not unlike the Ravens winning the 2000 Super Bowl: Amazing D, "game-manager" QB. (Yes, I just compared Tim Tebow to Trent Dilfer -- first and last time that has ever happened.)

More from yesterday: Alabama is very very very good... For all the crying about the BCS system, it sure does look like it will very cleanly be the Florida-Bama winner vs. Texas... Earning credit: VA Tech, OH St, Arkansas. Losing credit: Iowa, Kansas, TCU(?)

MLB Playoffs: The Cardinals are out. Redbird Nation must be shell-shocked at how quickly and frustratingly they were swept out of it. Red Sox and Twins could be next (betting Boston survives at least one more game, but not Minnesota).

Soccer: Sounds like a great win for the US to get into the World Cup field. Too bad no one was able to watch it.

-- D.S.

Tim Tebow Is Back: Conservative, Effective

Republished from my post-game post at TimTeblog.com:

In the end, Florida did exactly what I predicted they could and would do:

They beat LSU at LSU without Tim Tebow.

Now, obviously, Tim Tebow played (thrillingly) -- but it's not like he was TIM TEBOW, otherworldly greatest-player-of-all-time QB.

He was Tim Tebow, game-manager. He threw just 16 passes, with just one TD. He had 17 carries and averaged barely more than 2 yards per carry, with most of those 38 yards on a few key carries.

Oh, it was good enough -- more than enough, actually.

Why? For the same reasons I thought Florida would win the game with John Brantley at QB: Defense. (My god: That defense.) Special Teams. Creating LSU turnovers and limiting their own. Red zone efficiency. Urban Meyer's "Plan to Win."

Meyer: "Obviously, Tim came out and played his heart out. Our offensive line did a good job of protecting him for the most part. We were somewhat conservative. So much of that game plan depends on how your defense is playing and special teams. Those two phases were tremendous. This is a great win."

It was a great win -- instantly, one of the Top 5 wins of the Tebow Era. Yes, because of the context of what the win was -- but also because of what the win was NOT. It was not "classic" Tebow, in that he was dominating. It was classic Tebow in that he did whatever was necessary to help Florida win the game -- even subordinating his style to fit the extreme situation.

Tebow: "I'm not going to go out there and play tentative and scared. That's not me. I did try to play smart."

The gameplan was so interesting in the first half -- it was a tentative offense, run by a seemingly tentative Tebow. And it worked -- thanks to the running backs. (Has Emmanuel Moody had a better game for Florida?)

In the second half, we saw a glimpse of -- as Meyer put it last week -- "Tim being Tim." Taking the ball himself and plunging up the middle. But this more conservative Tebow was still very effective, in his own non-spectacular way.

Coming into the game, I was EXTREMELY nervous about the prospects of Tebow playing -- I was concerned that he would exacerbate the concussion. And, yes, throughout the game, when they called his number, I cringed.

And while I thought that Florida could beat LSU without Tebow playing like his 2007 or 2008 versions, I was thrilled to see him in there -- thrilled to see him playing within himself (even a temporarily conservative "himself") and within Florida's protectionist game plan.

And between Tebow, the running backs, Aaron Hernandez, the special teams (besides Sturgis' FG miss) and -- of course, more than anything -- the otherworldly defense, which might not just be the best in the country this season but among the best of all time, Florida is back on track as the team to beat.

Tebow is back. Not necessarily the old Tebow. But how could you not like this new Tebow?

(By the way, the best analysis of the game came from Dr. Saturday, Matt Hinton over at Yahoo. He correctly points out -- although not in these words: It's the defense, stupid.)

Saturday, October 10, 2009

College Football Gameday Live

As my wife and I set up our apartment for my second kid's 1st birthday party -- "college football tailgate" is the theme, naturally -- I'm reminded that his due date was the night of last year's Florida-LSU game (Oct. 11), which my wife and I ID'ed as soon as we initially got the due date. Jonah held off his arrival until the 14th, allowing us to enjoy the Florida romp. How thoughtful of the kid. It's like he knew. For the record, he has never experienced a Florida football loss in his lifetime....

7:49 pm: Not only is Tebow cleared to play, but all signs point to him STARTING. Wow. Just...wow. It will be hard to watch him without cringing at the mere thought of a rough hit.

Tebow's Eye-Black tonight: Thessalonians 5:18 (Be thankful, no matter what has happened.)

Meanwhile:

*Alabama is very very good. (Yes, Jevan Snead is entirely overrated -- he's even flat mediocre. But Bama is a machine.)

*So much for Auburn -- my question for Arkansas is: How did you lose to Georgia, which got clocked at Tennessee. (I may have to make Arkansas a rare 2-loss entry in my Top 25.)

*That was a quality win for Ohio State. That was not a quality win for Penn State.

*That was a must-win for Oklahoma State (a game I thought they would lose). That was an even better win for Houston, at Mississippi State. Houston has more/better quality wins than most of the Top 10.

*I think I have been overrating Kansas.

Whew. Let's get this thing going.

Saturday 10/10 (Very) Quickie

It's going to be a long slog between now and the Florida-LSU kickoff at 8. See today's CFB picks below (biggie: Florida over LSU).

Aaand, that's why the Yankees got Teixeira. (More shocking: Yankees' walk-off win or that HR by A-Rod in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game?)

Is Angels pitching that good or are Red Sox batters that bad?

Quick: Who won the WNBA title this season?

Honestly, I need to crawl back into distracting myself for the next 13 hours...

More later.

-- D.S.

CFB Top 25 Picks: Florida Over LSU

This has been the longest two weeks of my Florida fandom -- and I'm sure that I am speaking for all Florida fans. Finally, tonight, we'll be done with speculation and get to the game. Gonna be a long day -- good thing there are a couple of good games to keep us occupied.

1 Florida over @4 LSU -- Game of the Year
2 Texas over Colorado
3 Alabama over 20 Ole Miss -- De Facto SEC West Title Game?
5 VA Tech over BC
9 Ohio St over Wisconsin -- Badgers unbeaten
10 TCU over @ Air Force
11 Miami over Florida A/M
12 Iowa over Michigan
13 Oregon over @ UCLA
14 Penn St over E. Illinois
Texas A&M over 15 Oklahoma St -- Upset Special
16 Kansas over Iowa St
Arkansas over 17 Auburn -- Upset Special
18 BYU over UNLV
19 Oklahoma over Baylor
22 Georgia Tech over @Florida St -- Bowdenfreude
25 South Carolina over Kentucky

Other Games of Interest
Northwestern over Miami (OH)
West Virginia over @Syracuse
Georgia over @Tennessee
Houston over @Mississippi St
Pitt over UConn
Oregon St over Stanford

Friday, October 09, 2009

Latest Report: Tebow "Definitely" Will Play

So there's an unconfirmed report that Tebow will "definitely" play tomorrow night. I'm skeptical -- what if Florida is winning decisively... what's the point of playing Tebow?

Further, what's the point of announcing with ANY certainty that Tebow will play? Why put pressure on the coaches to follow through, even in the event the context to play isn't right?

This also seems out of character for Meyer's normally tight-lipped coaching staff. I have a hard time believing that they would selectively leak to a local TV reporter.

In the end, something like "he will definitely play" sounds more like someone's idea of wishful thinking than reality.

I'm not saying he WON'T play. I still think that Florida will be executing well enough that Tebow won't NEED to play, that Meyer won't need to risk playing him unnecessarily.

It is possible that necessity will raise itself. But I'm not quite sure I see the logic in playing Tebow just for the sake of giving him a couple of snaps in what should be a game Florida can control.

Friday 10/09 Quickie: Tebow vs. LSU,
Holliday, Hamels, Lackey, NFL Week 5

Well, of COURSE I was going to lead today's SN column with my up-to-the-minute take on Tim Tebow vs. LSU.

Will he be cleared to play? Yes.
Will he be dressed to play? Yes.
Will he actually play? No.

The only scenario I can see Tebow playing is if John Brantley is awful -- bad fumbles, atrocious picks. But here's the reality: Urban Meyer will have a system to save Brantley from downside risk.

It won't be pretty, but it will be effective. Florida will rely on its sick defense, its spectacular special teams and its depth of quality RBs. All Brantley has to do is be... good enough.

Florida wins 27-16...without Tebow.

More from today's column:
*Don't blame Matt Holliday (entirely)
*Don't blame Cole Hamels (entirely)
*Yikes: About that Red Sox offense...
*NFL Week 4: Belichick vs. McDaniels -- mismatch.
*McNabb is back, but I remain more intrigued by Vick.
*CFB Weekend Preview: SEC triple-treat, Big Ten unbeatens, Upset Special!
And a lot more.

Check it out here. More later, including weekly CFB picks.

-- D.S.

Thursday, October 08, 2009

Thursday 10/08 Quickie: LDS, Lee, CC,
Jeter, LOB, Edwards, Hammer, Tebow

Aha, so THAT's why the Phillies traded for Cliff Lee. Or the Yankees signed CC Sabathia. The pair lead today's SN column.

Jeter hitting first postseason homer in Yankee Stadium history: Predictable.

Dodgers and Cards combine for 30 left on base? Lamentable.

Braylon Edwards vs. Michael Crabtree? I'd actually take Crabtree.

Tebow update: Don't expect to know that he's playing at LSU until he runs into the game midway through -- and even then, only under extreme, low-probability circumstances.

Nebraska at Missouri tonight: I'll take Nebraska -- who has Mizzou played? At least NU nearly beat VA Tech in Blacksburg.

SN's Top Sports City of 2009: Pittsburgh. Can't argue with that. (CAN argue with Gainesville at No. 41.)

Complete column here. More later.

-- D.S.

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Wednesday 10/07 Quickie: MLB LDS,
Twins, Edwards, Crabtree, Tebow, LeBron

Start with this: I just posted my MLB playoff picks, below. For those of you who believe in the Quickie jinx (and how could you not?), I picked the Yankees winning the World Series in 5 over the Phillies. So it will probably be the Angels over the Rockies in 7.

Meanwhile, as I led in today's SN column, the 2009 MLB Playoffs field culminates the entire decade in baseball:

Most dramatic team: Yankees.
Biggest moment: Red Sox (04)
Biggest comeback: Rockies (07)
Best hitter/biggest flake: Manny
Most underrated juggernaut: Angels (02 champs)
Soul of baseball: Cards (06 champs)
Defending champs: Phillies

Oh, and the Twins, who just pulled off an unprecedented comeback over the final 4 (no: 5) games of the regular season, in an instant-classic playoff "play-in" game.

(It would be nice to represent the 2005 champ White Sox or the 2003 champ Marlins, but you can't have everything in an 8-team field.)

More you'll find in today's column:

*Braylon Edwards traded to Jets: Don't mess with LeBron.

*49ers sign Michael Crabtree: All that holdout...for what?

*Tim Tebow returns to practice: But no contact yet (and not cleared to play vs. LSU yet)

*LeBron/Shaq off to winning start in NBA preseason -- I think NBA GMs who picked them to win the East weren't paying attention last year.

*Gilbert Arenas: 10 assists in 24 minutes, as he begins his transformation from scoring maniac to facilitator. I'm still weighing whether to pick my Wiz to win the East.

There's a ton more in there. Check it out here. More later.

-- D.S.

Dan Shanoff's MLB 2009 Playoff Picks

As always, the Quickie jinx is in full effect...

LDS
Yankees over Twins in 3.
Red Sox over Angels in 4.
Cards over Dogers in 4.
Phillies over Rockies in 4.

LCS
Yankees over Red Sox in 7.
Phillies over Cards in 7.

World Series
Yankees over Phillies in 5.

-- D.S.

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

New Yahoo/Tebow: Win-Lose, Play-Don't
Tebow's Injury Transcends Game Outcome

My latest Tebow-related Yahoo column is live, and the crux is that Tebow could play or not play -- and Florida could win or lose -- and his status is still THE story of the game.

LSU beats Florida without Tebow? "Yeah, but the Gators didn't have Tebow."

Florida beats LSU without Tebow? "Wow, the Gators won even without Tebow."

LSU beats Florida with Tebow? "Yeah, but Tebow was not Tebow."

Florida beats LSU with Tebow? "What CAN'T Tebow do?"

I also reiterate my week-long positions:

(1) I think Florida can beat LSU -- even AT Death Valley -- without Tebow.

(That's a combination of Florida's sick defense, sick special teams, sick RBs and very capable backup QB, plus LSU not looking particularly overwhelming the last two weeks.)

(2) Even if he's "cleared" to play, isn't the (re-)injury risk particularly acute?

Anyway, if you're interested, please take a read -- and, as always, check out TimTeblog for even more obsessive coverage of Tebow. (But I think you'll be surprised: It's not especially fawning. That's not the point. There's too much analysis to do to clutter it up with fanboy praise.)

-- D.S.

ESPN's "30 For 30" Debuts: "30 for 80s?"

ESPN's hugely anticipated "30 for 30" documentary series (starting tonight) is nothing as much as it is the triumph for sports fans of a certain age. That age is 37.5.

But let's call it ages 35-40: This would be ESPN's bulls-eye target market: Has enough money to spend on marketer messages, still considers themselves "young." I'm in that target. And don't forget the ultimate manifestation of that target: Bill Simmons, not coincidentally an executive producer of the "30 for 30" series.

As you look through the "30 for 30" topics covered -- at least in the first 3 months -- what you see predominantly are sports events from the formative years of someone who, at the time, was anywhere from 9-18 years old -- call it the age of sports-fan puberty -- when the event happened. Check it out, in the order the documentaries are going to be released:

Gretzky traded to LA: 1988
Colts moved to Indianapolis: 1984
USFL Dies: 1985
Ali-Holmes Fight: 1980
Len Bias dies: 1986
Jimmy the Greek: 1988
Miami's heyday: 1987-ish
Reggie vs. the Knicks: 1995

Of the first 8 subjects, 6 climaxed between 1984 and 1988. If you are 35-40 today, the events would have happened between the time you were 9 and 18. Most notably, if you are younger than 30-ish today, you will have no (or virtually no) at-the-time recollection of any of these seminal events.

Was sports that much more interesting back then? Arguably yes, for two reasons: (1) Media was vastly more limited than it was even 10 years later, let alone today, and so the stories -- while well-known -- are still appealingly opaque to us. And (2) your own (admittedly inflated) sense of nostalgia for the events of your own formative sports years.

For fans older than 35, the appeal of the documentaries is obvious: They will return you to the seminally transcendent sports events of your childhood.

I am intrigued by the interest of fans under 30 for these subjects: For all the first-hand memory, it might as well be documentaries about baseball during World War 2 or the ABA or Billie Jean King or Jack Johnson. You either have a personal frame of reference to a story -- or it's distant history. The "30 for 30" series has extraordinarily compelling topics, to be sure -- but still beyond personal recollection for so many fans.

Of course, that's OK. The series is intended to be about nostalgia. And, at least within these first 8 documentaries, it intentionally or not frames the mid-1980s as some sort of mythical Golden Era for dramatic sports storylines.

Is Gretzky being traded more interesting than Michael Jordan unretiring... for the Wizards?
Is the Colts' relocation to Indy more brutal than the Browns' relocation to Baltimore?
Is the USFL failing more wild than the rise of NASCAR?
Is Len Bias dying more tragic than Pat Tillman?
Is Jimmy the Greek's influence on sports gambling more compelling than the rise of fantasy sports?
Is Miami's heyday more insane than college football recruiting is today?

It is obviously not fair -- or even worthwhile -- to compare.

However, the answer is yes -- if you are "of a certain age."

You want to think that your precious childhood memories are more interesting than everyone else's -- that they aren't simply part of an ongoing cycle of sports drama that continues every season, even every day.

Even if plenty of fans under 30 would love to argue with you about that, it would diminish your own childhood -- erode your own foundation of fandom -- to realize that the times were interesting, but some kind of "Golden Era" of sports.

Sports is not frozen back in the mid-80s just because it was your/my own youth. It reconstitutes itself every day -- with every new event -- and thank goodness for that. If it never got any better than it was back in the mid-80s, the last 25 years of sports -- and the next 25 years -- would suck.

It is worth noting that this is only the first 8 of the 30. Most of the rest of the doc subjects go beyond that mid-80s window: 1994 (Jordan baseball), 2003 (Bartman), 1995 (Rugby World Cup), mid-90s (Mat Hoffman), early-90s (rap culture embraces LA Raiders), 1999 (Charismatic), current (Right To Play), mid-00s (Marion Jones). The range of events over the last 30 years is well-covered, and I personally can't wait to watch every one, starting tonight with the Gretzky-trade story. "30 for 30" is arguably the coolest thing ESPN has ever done on TV.

But it is notable that the series -- which will run over 15 months, through December 2010 -- begins with such heavy representation of such a small window of time.

If you are a fan of my generation -- if your formative years happened during this wild era in the mid-1980s -- this will take you back. I think that's the point.

-- D.S.

Tuesday 10/06 Quickie: Favre, Twins,
Tebow, Bowden, McNabb, Cable, Rockets

I am going to let down my colleagues in the Favre-haters Society, but in the lead of today's SN column, I praise Favre's effort last night.

Oh, I had to watch on mute. And I had to replace my Favre-loathing with schadenfreude for Packers fans (eh: they deserve it, if only for believing in Favre even after it was clear he despised them). But I nodded my head and muttered: "Not bad."

Then I woke up this morning, flushed that out of my system in the column, then went back to the hatin'.

That's not to say that I hate all things Minneapolis -- actually, I'm rooting for the Twins today against the Tigers (even though I suspect that the Tigers have a slightly better chance of giving the Yankees a series -- what can I say... I'm a sucker for Joe Mauer like the rest of you.)

Lots more in the column today, and I've got a big post about ESPN's "30 for 30" documentary series -- which starts tonight -- coming between 11:30 and noon. Check back then.

-- D.S.

Monday, October 05, 2009

On ESPN.com's New SweetSpot Network

ESPN.com's TrueHoop Network of NBA blogs, covering every individual NBA team and aligned -- if not owned or compensated -- by ESPN was a terrific (and successful) experiment.

So successful that they're replicating it with baseball -- but smartly: They are starting with promoting blogs of the 8 playoff teams, the expanding after that to all 30.

What do the two networks have in common? They both launched from a central, "national" blog run by a singularly gifted writer: For TrueHoop, Henry Abbott; for SweetSpot, Rob Neyer.

Compare that to the way that ESPN.com set up the two football blog networks: Division-by-division (or conference-by-conference) blogs, edited by full-time employees, most of whom brought in from newspapers to cover a batch of teams all at once.

(While never doubting the blogs would be successful, at the time the two homegrown football networks launched, I was bullish on CFB conference-by-conference blogs, but questioned whether fans -- especially NFL fans -- consume content on a division-by-division basis, rather than "just focus on my team.")

There is no single "national" blog for the NFL or college football -- and the two systems were set up after Abbott's TrueHoop acquisition really proved the blog model for them.

Remains to be seen whether they will create networks of individual team blogs in NFL and CFB, similar to NBA.

(One other place you're seeing ESPN.com create distribution and content relationships with bloggers: Local, which obviously makes a lot of sense. It is a super-efficient way to fill the content pipeline with highly relevant -- and high-quality -- content, in a way the newspapers can't...or won't.)

While the blog ecosystem at the team level is thriving with amazing content and talent, it is also finite:

Other big players who want to craft partnerships on a team-by-team (or city-by-city) basis may want to follow Yahoo's lead and give the fine folks at SB Nation a call.

After that, the pool gets pretty shallow.

-- D.S.

(For my own benefit, I almost always dive into team blogs when trying to get smarter about individual team-specific storylines that are "going national." But for things like the playoffs, I usually set up an RSS feed of the 8 team blogs for easy reference. In this case, I'll grab both SweetSpot's network of blogs, along with SBNation's -- plus any "indies" that are really good.)

Monday 10/05 Quickie: Minnesota Mania,
Favre, Twins, Saints, Pats, Eli, LSU, More

Enjoy it, Minnesotans: Your position at the center of the sports universe starts now and lasts... oh, until the last out of Twins-Tigers tomorrow at the Metrodome.

If you can get past the Favre storyline (and that's a tall order), the Vikings-Packers game should be a pretty good one. (Would it be too much to ask for Percy Harvin to have an insane game?)

And I'm loving the idea of the Twins becoming the first team ever to win a division having been down 3 games with 4 to play in the regular season (although the "Game 163" is a bit of a cheat).

As I lead in today's SN column, the drama over the AL Central ends Tuesday night, because the winner presumably loses in the ALDS to the Yankees. (Then again, I presumed on Friday that there was no way the Twins were catching the Tigers.)

But for this small window, all eyes are on Minnesota.

More you'll find in today's column:

*NFC's Best: Saints
*AFC's Best: Steelers
*Fantasy studs: David Garrard Goodness!
*Must-track injury: Eli's heel
*Explain again why the Titans shouldn't start Vince Young?
*This past weekend's CFB slate? Relatively lame, as expected.
*Will Tebow play Saturday at LSU? As I'll argue all week: Won't matter.

And a lot more. Check out the complete column here. More later.

-- D.S.

Sunday, October 04, 2009

This Week's BlogPoll Top 25 Ballot: Bye-Bye

Here is my best guess at this week's (mostly) resume-based Top 25 ballot for the BlogPoll.

RankTeamDelta
1 Florida 1
2 Texas 1
3 Alabama 2
4 Cincinnati
5 TCU 2
6 LSU
7 Boise State 4
8 Virginia Tech
9 Oregon 3
10 Southern Cal 3
11 Iowa 1
12 Kansas 3
13 Miami (Florida) 9
14 Ohio State
15 Houston 10
16 Auburn 3
17 South Florida
18 Georgia Tech 3
19 Oklahoma State 1
20 Penn State 5
21 Brigham Young 6
22 Mississippi
23 Stanford
24 Missouri
25 Wisconsin
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Oklahoma (#16), Michigan (#20), Georgia (#23).


*Oklahoma, Michigan and Georgia are out. Stanford is in.

*Couple of odd adjustments: I actually moved LSU down after a road win at Georgia.

*I moved Alabama down from No. 1, behind idle Florida and Texas -- now, I had been putting Bama at No. 1 as early as anyone (after Week 1). I based the drop on what I thought was a pretty interesting head-to-head comparison: I thought Florida looked better beating Kentucky in Lexington than Alabama did. (Moving idle Texas ahead of Alabama, too? Well, maybe that needs to be rethought -- Texas will not benefit from Oklahoma losing yesterday; it'll make a UT win in 2 weeks a little less impressive.)

*I'm still high on Cincinnati and TCU.

*Miami vaults back up, although I recognize that you can't value a win over Oklahoma for Miami and not give BYU more credit for beating Oklahoma, because they did it in Norman.

*I use a lot of direct and indirect transitive properties -- teams beating other teams head-to-head, and how teams did against common opponents.

*(Houston just screwed up everyone's resume-balloting: They have this incredible "plus" -- beating Oklahoma State in Stillwater -- and this insanely bad "minus" -- getting throttled by lowly UTEP. It'll be interesting to see how people reconcile it.)

Would love to get your feedback.

Sunday 10/04 (Very) Quickie

Baseball eclipses college football on a Sunday morning: Improbably, the Tigers have coughed up the AL Central lead, falling into a tie with the Twins and setting up the awesome quasi-"play-in" scenario for today's games.

I guess the best-case scenario is that they either both win or both lose, and we get a one-game playoff between the two tomorrow, playing head-to-head for the division title. Credit the Twins for getting past the Royals on a Greinke start day, and rip the Tigers for not really playing as if they want to make the playoffs.

OK, back to college football observations:

*I know Oklahoma could still technically win the Big 12 title (although does anyone really think they can beat Texas, even with a healthy Bradford), but why would Sam Bradford jeopardize his future as a No. 1 overall NFL draft pick to play for a bid to the Cotton Bowl?

*So I know Alabama > VA Tech and VA Tech > Miami -- did Miami just join the first two back in the Top 10? At some point, who you lost to matters (although how you lost should matter, too).

*I'm glad that LSU won, because it makes next week's LSU-Florida game that much more Game of the Year -- but having watched near-complete LSU games over the past two weeks, I'm just not that impressed. One part of me wants to say "LSU on the road during the day isn't the same as LSU at home at night," but one part of me wants to say "LSU is simply not a great team." (Then again, good-not-great teams playing at home beat great teams in one-off situations all the time.)

*Still: Nothing I saw from LSU makes me think that Florida without Tim Tebow (and with John Brantley) can't beat them. They may have to grit their way through, but the Gators can/will win. (Georgia Tech this week beat Mississippi State more impressively in Starkvill than LSU did a week ago.)

*I think I'm going to put Florida over last week's No. 1, Alabama, in my BlogPoll Top 25 -- Florida looked better against Kentucky than Alabama did. (Although Bama looked good.) Is that enough to make up for the fact that Bama still has a much more impressive "affirmative" quality win (over VA Tech) than Florida has against anyone?

*As usual, USC looks terrific -- but they just won't be able to overcome their annual slip-up loss.

*Wow, what a deflating loss for Houston -- UTEP isn't a very good team. I had thought that based on their wins over OK St and Texas Tech, Houston was en route to an unbeaten season and a better-than-Boise case to be the non-BCS team to play in a BCS-level bowl.

*Boise rolls another soft opponent -- but another Oregon impressive win makes Boise look that much better. (I tweeted this earlier this week: If Oregon played Boise today on a neutral field -- instead of the first week at Boise -- Oregon would win.) I still think TCU is the best non-BCS team in the country.

(I have a suggestion for the Mountain West: Broker a "championship game" against the champion of the WAC, to be played the same Saturday in December when the BCS conferences play their championship games. They don't need to actually combine conferences, but couldn't they set this up? There's no precedent, but what -- the NCAA is going to tell the non-BCS teams they can't do a little more to compete with the BCS cabal?)

*That was a very good win for Notre Dame -- anytime ND can (even temporarily) take "transitive property" over rival USC, it's a good thing (although now USC has a huge motivation to crush ND, to mitigate its own loss to Washington).

But non-ND fans could be forgiven for thinking UW got a little jobbed. My particular problem is that the refs didn't automatically review the game-ending play, which featured illegal helmet-to-helmet contact by ND on that poor UW receiver and should have triggered an automatic Washington 1st down.

*I think it's time that AP voters finally put Auburn into the Top 25 (I already had them there). I think that Wisconsin will get into the Top 25 because they are unbeaten (with a decent, if not great, rivalry win on the road at Minnesota), even if they aren't really a Top 25 team. They'll have a chance to earn it next week in Columbus. (And look at that: The Big Ten has a bevy of ranked teams -- Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin. Michigan will probably drop out. Not bad for a not-great conference.)

*Looking ahead to next week, a sick SEC double-header: Bama at Ole Miss -- notwithstanding the Rebels' season-crushing loss at South Carolina, they can still resurrect their season and their chances in the SEC West with a win over Alabama (which would crush Bama's season, btw -- extra motivation) -- followed by Florida at LSU. Other than that, it's a pretty slow weekend of big games. ("Other than that" -- what more could you ask for than two huge games of national consequence running from 3:30 to midnight?)

Give one last check to your fantasy teams...

-- D.S.

Saturday, October 03, 2009

Saturday 10/03 Quickie + CFB Picks

At the wire...!

3 Alabama over @Kentucky
18 Georgia over 4 LSU
5 Boise St over UC Davis
6 VA Tech over @Duke
7 USC over @24 Cal
8 Oklahoma over @17 Miami
9 Ohio St over @Indiana
10 Cincy over @Miami (OH)
11 TCU over SMU
12 Houston over @UTEP
13 Iowa over Arkansas St
15 Penn St over Illinois
16 Oregon over Washington St
21 Ole Miss over @Vandy
Michigan St over 22 Michigan
25 Georgia Tech over @Mississippi St

Other Games of Note:
Auburn over @Tennessee
Wisconsin over @Minnesota
South Florida over @Syracuse
Florida State over @BC
Arkansas over Texas A&M
Washington over Notre Dame
Purdue over Northwestern

More:
*Chicago snubbed by Olympics. In hindsight: So obvious. Still: Humiliating.

*HS Football: Anyone else watch prep 1 vs. 2 last night? Just me? St. Thomas Aquinas is REALLY good -- when you can light up the No. 2 team in the country, you're pretty awesome. I think I saw that Aquinas has 19 D1-A prospects -- in the senior class. Yikes. (Do-everything Lamarcus Joyner was particularly impressive for Aquinas.)

*Anyone still think the Dodgers have any shot of winning the NL pennant? Cripes: They may not even win their division, at this rate. Someone's playing to win (Colorado); someone's just playing to get to next week (LA).

More later. Time to settle in for a day of CFB-watching.

-- D.S.