Sunday, September 24, 2006

CFB Top 25 Ballot: Same Old?

As with last week's ballot, this is just a starting point. Make your comments/critiques below and I'll revise mid-week.

1. Ohio St
2. Auburn
3. WVA
4. USC
5. Florida
6. Michigan
7. Louisville
8. LSU
9. Texas
10. Notre Dame
11. Georgia
12. Oregon
13. VA Tech
14. TCU
15. Iowa
16. Clemson
17. Oklahoma
18. Tennessee
19. Cal
20. Rutgers
21. Nebraska
22. Florida St
23. Boise St

24. Georgia Tech
25. Washington

The most significant change: Yes, I dropped still-unbeaten Georgia from No. 7 last week to No. 11 this week. (So much for claims of SEC bias.)

This is a great example of not succumbing to that traditional pollsters (media, coach) symptom of INERTIA – moving a team up or down (or staying put) based on the previous week's poll.

Each week should be an entirely new evaluation, taking into consideration the entire body of work, revised with the latest.

(I should credit the media writers in the AP: They dropped UGA from 9 to 10. It's not as extreme as me, but at least they did SOMETHING.)

Next week's BCS impact games:
1. Ohio St at Iowa
2. Alabama at Florida
3. Oregon at Arizona St
4. Georgia Tech at VA Tech
5. Auburn at South Carolina

(OK, who's got the most appropriate "S"-word to pair alliteratively with "Saturday" to describe next week's schedule?)

Comment question: Who do I have too high? Too low? Anyone outside the Top 25 who should have made my 20-25 range?

-- D.S.


Christian Thoma said...

Glad to see UW make the 25th spot. But maybe drop Boise State --Hawaii kept it too close, imo --out of the top 25 and put Wake Forest in. That way you'll look prescient when the Demon Deacons play Rutgers in the National Championship.

Christian Thoma said...

Also, I do want to make a comment about the Inertia in the polls. Honestly, I think it's a good thing. Here's my reasoning: there's such a small sample size of voters in both polls, that if everyone completely re-evaluated on a weekly basis, the poll results would swing wildly week to week. The fans would HATE that. Sure it'd be more honest, but too chaotic to maintain as a relevant system for long.

TJ said...

WVU at #3 definitely looks like an intertia pick. I have them at #4, but that's a drop for me from #2.

Actually, I'm with chrth. I think the inertia in the polls is overall a good thing so that things aren't wildly chaotic, especially at the beginning. And since human nature will never allow us to go poll-less for the first month of the season like would probably be best, the current system works pretty well.

But if you're going to go with a no-inertia motto I think WVU at #2 doesn't work. Also Georgia at #11 is a joke. If you woke up from a 3 month coma tomorrow and looked at Georgia's current poll resume, you'd put them #11? Really? They've done... what, exactly?

Unsilent Majority said...

Iowa couldn't even cover against Illinois (thanks for ruining that parlay assholes). I'm not sure I'd pencil them in for anything but a thrashing from OSU.

Joe Asheville said...

With the first pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select Tim Tebow – Quarterback – Florida.

Favorites Ohio St, Florida, Oregon, VA Tech, and Auburn all look good to take care of business on Status Quo Saturday.

Unknown said...

It's already been said but WVU at #3 is too high for them. I'd drop them down to #5 because like has been told already no #3 team should struggle against East Carolina.

FreKy J said...

This is the top 25 based on the ladder rating system I setup for my own personal information. Details, for anyone who is interested, are listed on my blog.

1) Michigan / 1401
2) Florida / 1389
3) Ohio State / 1388
4) Louisville / 1386
5) Auburn / 1382
6) Wake Forest / 1334
7) Oregon / 1313
8) Missouri / 1312
9) West Virginia / 1302
T10) Texas A&M / 1294
T10) USC / 1294
12) Houston / 1288
13) Purdue / 1284
14) Rutgers / 1283
15) Boise State / 1279
16) Iowa / 1272
17) Georgia / 1270
18) Virginia Tech / 1262
19) Notre Dame / 1231
20) LSU / 1230
21) Texas / 1224
22) Clemson / 1216
23) TCU / 1215
24) Washington / 1209
25) Oklahoma / 1207

Teams Out: Alabama, Boston College, Kansas State, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, UCLA, Wisconsin.

T-Mill said...

I think Purdue deserves at least a little consideration for #25. The defense is improving each week and don't let the yardage fool you, it has come up with some critical stops after giving up a bunch of yards in each of the past three weeks. Three times it has come up with goal line interceptions to make teams walak away with no points at critical junctures, and it has blocked two field goals as well that were momentum changers.

With an offense that is very balanced, as well as very good, they have a punchers chance to go into South bend and pull an upset this week, sicne Notre Dame can't stop the French Army right now.

I am not predicting a win, as I still think Notre Dame will pull away, but it should be much closer than people will thnk and if things break right, the Boilers can be 5-0 and ruin Notre Dame's season.

Anonymous said...

looks like a bunch of top notch teams playing borderline, possible-upset teams. stumbling block saturday?

Roge said...

Why no love for Iowa? You are saying that Iowa isn't better than Louisville without Brohm/Bush, or Georgia with NO offense, or TCU, or ND with a loss and a near loss to MSU (who Iowa will destroy).

They beat their rival (Iowa St.) which is always a tough game like every rivalry. Their only close game was without their starting QB and on the road. Just seems to me they should be higher.

dawg gone round the world said...

As a long time UGA fan, who suffered through the worst performance of a supremely talented squad as I did Saturday, I say definitely drop them out of the top ten. No question about it.

Then I went home from the game and watched the WVU game, the OSU game, the UF game, and the ND game.

All of those teams were playing teams with a significant difference in talent. Probably none with quite the distinction in talent as UF-UK, UGA-CU and WVU-ECU.

I was tortured throughout the game with our inability to do anything offensively or defensively against Colorado, but in retrospect, yes it took a 4th quarter "defining moment" to win the game, CU didn't do anything offensively after the first drive of the 2nd quarter.

I felt ND played worse in the win than UGA, but got the win. I felt all of these teams played poorly, but did what needed to be done to win.

Also, just from a fan's perspective. The ref's first holding call on CU's line was in the 2nd quarter. After that(with other holding calls) the gaping holes for their RBs weren't quite as gaping anymore.

Christian Thoma said...


Dude, nothing will kill the legitimacy of a homegrown system faster than seeing Wake Forest at #6.

rafael said...

The only reason one would say WVU should not struggle against ECU is if you don't know ECU. Struggling against a mid-major on the road is not necessarily a sign of a weak team.

Purdue does not deserve T25 just yet. They have struggled way too much to this point with very weak teams.

And having seen Iowa play...yeah, Ohio State should be focused, but hardly scared. That's a 2 TD victory for the Bucks waiting to happen.

TJ said...

I'll admit that the only ECU game I've seen in... a while? ever? was this weekend, but a #1 caliber team shouldn't struggle that much against a team FoxSports ranks 82/119 and CBS SportsLine ranks 79/119. I only dropped WVU to 4, but then I'll admit to emplying a bit of inertia in my... um, calculations.

FreKy J said...

chrth said...

Dude, nothing will kill the legitimacy of a homegrown system faster than seeing Wake Forest at #6.

As I've mentioned elsewhere, the standings do not take anything into account except for wins and losses and the ratings of the opponents at the time of the game. If Wake is #6, that is an immediate reflection of how they've performed through this point in the season. Most rankings are based on people's opinions and expectations of what a team should be based on their supposed talent.

I also encourage you to wait and see how the rating system plays out at the end of the season. I've finished inputting last year's data (including bowl games) and will be posting it on my blog if you're interested.

SF said...

How about "So-So Saturday" for next week?

SF said...

By the way, b/c of your poll, freky j, you are my hero.


Maher said...

When Florida struggles against FSU talk to me about who shouldn't struggle against whom.

Florida struggled against a team "ranked" by CBS at 65. (Kentucky).

ECU was/is ranked ~80, and WVU "struggled" to a 27-10 win.

Auburn only managed 38pts against Buffalo (117 on CBS).

This is college, not the NFL. If you lose in college, you are done for the year, so coaches like Tressel who have won a national championship tend to get a little conservative with the playcalling in a game where it is a struggle to get the ball to the QB from Center.

Tressel doesn't like to blow teams like Bobby Bowden or Steve Spurrier. He likes to win games with defense and clock management. I'll take that all the way to Arizona.

Maher said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.