Sunday, September 24, 2006

CFB Top 25 Ballot: Same Old?

As with last week's ballot, this is just a starting point. Make your comments/critiques below and I'll revise mid-week.

1. Ohio St
2. Auburn
3. WVA
4. USC
5. Florida
6. Michigan
7. Louisville
8. LSU
9. Texas
10. Notre Dame
11. Georgia
12. Oregon
13. VA Tech
14. TCU
15. Iowa
16. Clemson
17. Oklahoma
18. Tennessee
19. Cal
20. Rutgers
21. Nebraska
22. Florida St
23. Boise St

24. Georgia Tech
25. Washington

The most significant change: Yes, I dropped still-unbeaten Georgia from No. 7 last week to No. 11 this week. (So much for claims of SEC bias.)

This is a great example of not succumbing to that traditional pollsters (media, coach) symptom of INERTIA – moving a team up or down (or staying put) based on the previous week's poll.

Each week should be an entirely new evaluation, taking into consideration the entire body of work, revised with the latest.

(I should credit the media writers in the AP: They dropped UGA from 9 to 10. It's not as extreme as me, but at least they did SOMETHING.)

Next week's BCS impact games:
1. Ohio St at Iowa
2. Alabama at Florida
3. Oregon at Arizona St
4. Georgia Tech at VA Tech
5. Auburn at South Carolina

(OK, who's got the most appropriate "S"-word to pair alliteratively with "Saturday" to describe next week's schedule?)

Comment question: Who do I have too high? Too low? Anyone outside the Top 25 who should have made my 20-25 range?

-- D.S.

31 comments:

ChrTh said...

Glad to see UW make the 25th spot. But maybe drop Boise State --Hawaii kept it too close, imo --out of the top 25 and put Wake Forest in. That way you'll look prescient when the Demon Deacons play Rutgers in the National Championship.

ChrTh said...

Also, I do want to make a comment about the Inertia in the polls. Honestly, I think it's a good thing. Here's my reasoning: there's such a small sample size of voters in both polls, that if everyone completely re-evaluated on a weekly basis, the poll results would swing wildly week to week. The fans would HATE that. Sure it'd be more honest, but too chaotic to maintain as a relevant system for long.

JeterIs#1 said...

Have you ever seen Iowa play Dan? They are gonna show you whats up this week when they knock off your #1. ABC in primetime you better get a look at the Hawks. You heard it here first!

Jason said...

Just gotta say...as I keep saying...go Rutgers!

Cody said...

Dan, Dan, Dan

ND at #10? Does ND deserve to move up because unranked MSU melted down?

What did West Virginia do to deserve the #3 spot? The #3 team in the country should not struggle against East Carolina.

LSU in front of Texas..this is an on-going debate. UT lost to the #1 team, LSU the #4 team (at the time of the loss)some argue that LSU looked better in the loss than UT did, but this assumes that Ohio State and Auburn are equal. Tough call.

I'm going to call next week SET-UP SATURDAY, because the week after is Texas/Oklahoma; LSU/Flordia; Tennessee/Georgia; Michigan/Michigan St.; Oregon/Cal. that's going to be a good week of college football.

Mike said...

WVU at #3? I don't know if you got to see that game Dan, but the 27-10 final makes it sound a LOT less competitive then the game was.

Also, Oregon at 12? I'm still in the school of thought that they didn't win that game against OU, don't treat them that way.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

WVU at #3 definitely looks like an intertia pick. I have them at #4, but that's a drop for me from #2.

Actually, I'm with chrth. I think the inertia in the polls is overall a good thing so that things aren't wildly chaotic, especially at the beginning. And since human nature will never allow us to go poll-less for the first month of the season like would probably be best, the current system works pretty well.

But if you're going to go with a no-inertia motto I think WVU at #2 doesn't work. Also Georgia at #11 is a joke. If you woke up from a 3 month coma tomorrow and looked at Georgia's current poll resume, you'd put them #11? Really? They've done... what, exactly?

Unsilent Majority said...

Iowa couldn't even cover against Illinois (thanks for ruining that parlay assholes). I'm not sure I'd pencil them in for anything but a thrashing from OSU.

Joe Asheville said...

With the first pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select Tim Tebow – Quarterback – Florida.

Favorites Ohio St, Florida, Oregon, VA Tech, and Auburn all look good to take care of business on Status Quo Saturday.

j. ryan sims said...

Iowa could have beaten Illinois by 40 if they wanted to. They dropped into cover-3 and stayed in it the whole game lettting Illinois' freshman QB throw 3 picks (with a 4th from Brasic). We played enough cover-3/cover-4 that the Illinois paper mistook CB Shada (and his 2 picks) for a safety.

On offense, Iowa threw downfield MAYBE three times all game, and ran the ball probably 15 straight times at one point in the 2nd half.

All this, and they still would have covered (minus 21.5) had the first and second string FS not both been out for a drive (Paschal, the starter, was just resting a tweaked hammy, he's fine for OSU).

j. ryan sims said...

That said...Iowa's 0-3 against the spread this year, after being something insane like 49-24 against it the last 7 years.

thirdstringjd said...

It's already been said but WVU at #3 is too high for them. I'd drop them down to #5 because like has been told already no #3 team should struggle against East Carolina.

FreKy J said...

This is the top 25 based on the ladder rating system I setup for my own personal information. Details, for anyone who is interested, are listed on my blog.

1) Michigan / 1401
2) Florida / 1389
3) Ohio State / 1388
4) Louisville / 1386
5) Auburn / 1382
6) Wake Forest / 1334
7) Oregon / 1313
8) Missouri / 1312
9) West Virginia / 1302
T10) Texas A&M / 1294
T10) USC / 1294
12) Houston / 1288
13) Purdue / 1284
14) Rutgers / 1283
15) Boise State / 1279
16) Iowa / 1272
17) Georgia / 1270
18) Virginia Tech / 1262
19) Notre Dame / 1231
20) LSU / 1230
21) Texas / 1224
22) Clemson / 1216
23) TCU / 1215
24) Washington / 1209
25) Oklahoma / 1207

Teams Out: Alabama, Boston College, Kansas State, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, UCLA, Wisconsin.

Boilermaker football blogger said...

I think Purdue deserves at least a little consideration for #25. The defense is improving each week and don't let the yardage fool you, it has come up with some critical stops after giving up a bunch of yards in each of the past three weeks. Three times it has come up with goal line interceptions to make teams walak away with no points at critical junctures, and it has blocked two field goals as well that were momentum changers.

With an offense that is very balanced, as well as very good, they have a punchers chance to go into South bend and pull an upset this week, sicne Notre Dame can't stop the French Army right now.

I am not predicting a win, as I still think Notre Dame will pull away, but it should be much closer than people will thnk and if things break right, the Boilers can be 5-0 and ruin Notre Dame's season.

dave.gordon said...

looks like a bunch of top notch teams playing borderline, possible-upset teams. stumbling block saturday?

Jeff Rogers said...

Why no love for Iowa? You are saying that Iowa isn't better than Louisville without Brohm/Bush, or Georgia with NO offense, or TCU, or ND with a loss and a near loss to MSU (who Iowa will destroy).

They beat their rival (Iowa St.) which is always a tough game like every rivalry. Their only close game was without their starting QB and on the road. Just seems to me they should be higher.

dawg gone round the world said...

As a long time UGA fan, who suffered through the worst performance of a supremely talented squad as I did Saturday, I say definitely drop them out of the top ten. No question about it.

Then I went home from the game and watched the WVU game, the OSU game, the UF game, and the ND game.

All of those teams were playing teams with a significant difference in talent. Probably none with quite the distinction in talent as UF-UK, UGA-CU and WVU-ECU.

I was tortured throughout the game with our inability to do anything offensively or defensively against Colorado, but in retrospect, yes it took a 4th quarter "defining moment" to win the game, CU didn't do anything offensively after the first drive of the 2nd quarter.

I felt ND played worse in the win than UGA, but got the win. I felt all of these teams played poorly, but did what needed to be done to win.

Also, just from a fan's perspective. The ref's first holding call on CU's line was in the 2nd quarter. After that(with other holding calls) the gaping holes for their RBs weren't quite as gaping anymore.

ChrTh said...

@frekyj:

Dude, nothing will kill the legitimacy of a homegrown system faster than seeing Wake Forest at #6.

rafael said...

The only reason one would say WVU should not struggle against ECU is if you don't know ECU. Struggling against a mid-major on the road is not necessarily a sign of a weak team.

Purdue does not deserve T25 just yet. They have struggled way too much to this point with very weak teams.

And having seen Iowa play...yeah, Ohio State should be focused, but hardly scared. That's a 2 TD victory for the Bucks waiting to happen.

Troy (Gainesville, FL) said...

I'll admit that the only ECU game I've seen in... a while? ever? was this weekend, but a #1 caliber team shouldn't struggle that much against a team FoxSports ranks 82/119 and CBS SportsLine ranks 79/119. I only dropped WVU to 4, but then I'll admit to emplying a bit of inertia in my... um, calculations.

Chris Maher said...

*yawn*. I'm sick of everyone saying this is the week that OSU loses to my team blah blah blah.

Heard that all 2003.

Not quite as bad as Doug Flutie saying during halftime of the OSU/PSU game that USC deserved to be #1...funny how he shut up when they were up 3-0 on Arizona with 13:30 left in the 3rd.

It was so wet in Columbus that I could barely hold my 6 dollar Coke. Both teams played in the same conditions, hence the low scoring and lack of passing.

When the season started most bucks fans were worried about the games @iowa and @msu. Night game, on the road, alcohol fueled fans. At least after this week I don't have to worry about MSU anymore...but don't tell me that Iowa is going to destroy OSU. Big Ten games are always close (games against Illinois and Indiana don't count as Big Ten).

Matt said...

'Soporific Saturday'?

Too high-brow after 'Suck-ass Saturday'?

FreKy J said...

chrth said...
@frekyj:

Dude, nothing will kill the legitimacy of a homegrown system faster than seeing Wake Forest at #6.


As I've mentioned elsewhere, the standings do not take anything into account except for wins and losses and the ratings of the opponents at the time of the game. If Wake is #6, that is an immediate reflection of how they've performed through this point in the season. Most rankings are based on people's opinions and expectations of what a team should be based on their supposed talent.

I also encourage you to wait and see how the rating system plays out at the end of the season. I've finished inputting last year's data (including bowl games) and will be posting it on my blog if you're interested.

Mike said...

Fun fact: Calvin Johnson was far and away had the most recieving yards for GT against UVa this week.
#2? QB Reggie Ball. Don't put your money on GT this weekend.

SF said...

How about "So-So Saturday" for next week?

SF said...

By the way, b/c of your poll, freky j, you are my hero.

GO BLUE!!!

Josh said...

Well, it's nice to see that after picking Cal to lose to ASU, you've completely neglected any comment as to the absolute domination Cal had in all aspects of the game. At least you're remaining a consistant Cal hater. I'm really curious what it's going to take for the members of the media to forgive a bad opening game. It appears as though Notre Dame has been forgiven after being even more thoroughly decimated AT HOME and then coming back the next week and beating an UNRANKED opponent. Ahhh...the media bias, you'd think after all this time rooting for Cal I'd be used to it.

Dave said...

I had no idea there were that many people in the whole state of Iowa, much less Hawkeye fans who read AND post on this plog.

Iowa is a middle of the pack team in the Big 10 until/unless they beat OSU. I expect them to be thoroughly trounced.

Matt said...

here's my top 25, based on a very stringent scientific policy (me watching and betting on a lot of games):

1) ohio state, 2) usc, 3) auburn, 4) florida, 5) michigan, 6) louisville, 7) west virginia, 8) texas, 9) lsu, 10) oregon, 11) virginia tech, 12) notre dame, 13) georgia, 14) oklahoma, 15) tennessee, 16) tcu, 17) iowa, 18) cal, 19) clemson, 20) boise state, 21) nebraska, 22) missouri, 23) florida state, 24) rutgers, 25) boston college

outside looking in: texas tech, wake forest, arizona state, texas a&m

Maher said...

When Florida struggles against FSU talk to me about who shouldn't struggle against whom.

Florida struggled against a team "ranked" by CBS at 65. (Kentucky).

ECU was/is ranked ~80, and WVU "struggled" to a 27-10 win.

Auburn only managed 38pts against Buffalo (117 on CBS).

This is college, not the NFL. If you lose in college, you are done for the year, so coaches like Tressel who have won a national championship tend to get a little conservative with the playcalling in a game where it is a struggle to get the ball to the QB from Center.

Tressel doesn't like to blow teams like Bobby Bowden or Steve Spurrier. He likes to win games with defense and clock management. I'll take that all the way to Arizona.

Maher said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.